"continue to think this ‘AGI is fungible’ claim is rather bonkers crazy."
This is an interesting issue because when I talk with investors and engineers in the AI space I feel like this idea is gaining ground. The idea that the LLMs are turning out to be commoditized, that for many or most AI things you build, the individual LLM you build with can be swapped out. There's some price-performance tradeoff and there's some friction in swapping but more or less it's a fungible component of your system.
The part that is *not* fungible is your user base. You can tune your product to do well on the specific tasks that your users do, and your competitors can't just match that because they don't have the specific data from your users, they can't launch experiments and get feedback from your user base.
The LLMs can still be very profitable; AWS and Azure both make a lot of money despite being generally fungible.
I'm curious why you think this line of reasoning is bonkers crazy. To me it seems at least a reasonably possible outcome. Do you think there will be a phase shift at some point, where all of a sudden you don't have many similarly capable LLMs, where one of them pulls far ahead?