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Population Modeling Project

The document describes a group project modeling Utah population data from 1980 to 2008 using a linear function. It provides population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for Utah from 1981 to 2008 in 100,000s. The task is to plot this data on a graph, draw a best-fit line, determine a linear function from that line, and use the function to estimate past and future population values. While a linear model may fit the short time period given, it would not accurately model population growth over longer periods due to exponential growth patterns in actual population data.

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89 views4 pages

Population Modeling Project

The document describes a group project modeling Utah population data from 1980 to 2008 using a linear function. It provides population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for Utah from 1981 to 2008 in 100,000s. The task is to plot this data on a graph, draw a best-fit line, determine a linear function from that line, and use the function to estimate past and future population values. While a linear model may fit the short time period given, it would not accurately model population growth over longer periods due to exponential growth patterns in actual population data.

Uploaded by

api-284694108
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Wayne Sparkman

MODELING UTAH POPULATION DATA


Math 1010 Intermediate Algebra Group Project

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, the population of Utah
appears to have increased linearly over the years from 1980 to 2008. The following table shows
the population in 100,000s living in Utah according to year. In this project, you will use the
data in the table to find a linear function f (x) that represents the data, reflecting the change in
population in Utah.

Estimates of Utah Resident Population, in 100,000's


Year x

1981

1989

1993

1999

2005

2008

13

19

25

28

15.2
Population, y

17.1

19

22

25

27.4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

1.

Using the graph paper on the last page, plot the data given in the table as ordered pairs.
Label the x and y axes with words to indicate what the variables represent.

2.

Use a straight edge to draw on your graph what appears to be the line that best fits the data
you plotted. You will only have one line drawn, rather than several pieces of lines

3.

Estimate the coordinates of two points that fall on your best-fitting line. Write these points
below.

13

, 19

), (

25

25

Use the points that you wrote down to find a linear function f(x) for the line. Show your
work!
y2-y1/x2-x1
(25-19/25-13) = 6/12 =
25 = (25) = 25/2
= 12.5

f(x) = __1/2x+12.5___________________
4.

What is the slope of your line? m = _____1/2x___


Interpret its meaning. Does it make sense in the context of this situation? Please use
complete sentences to respond to these questions.

Using rise over run which is 2 rise and 1 run on the grid will not work. Neither will 6/12 work
for this question.

5.

Find the value of f (45) using your function from part 3. Show your work, then write your result
in the blank below.
F(45) = (45)+19
45/2+19^2

45/2+38/2=83/2

f(45) = ___83/2______
Write a sentence interpreting the meaning of f (45) in the context of this project.

f of 45 means that with the equation, 45 is added for x to create a range on the graph.

6.

Use your function from part 3 to approximate in what year the residential population of Utah
reached 2,000,000. Show your work.

1995
f(15)=1/2(15)+12.5
=20
=2,000,000 people.

7.

Compare your linear function with that of another student or group.


Comparison function: f(x) = ________4/9x+14.9______________
Is the comparison function the same as the function you wrote down for part 3?
No
If they are different, explain why.
We chose different points on the grid.

If they are the same, explain why.

8.

In actuality, using a linear growth model for population is not common. Most models are
exponential models, due to the fact that most populations experience relative growth, i.e. 2%
growth per year. Linear models for nonlinear relationships like population work only within a
small time frame valid close to the time of the data modeled. Discuss some of the false
conclusions you might reach if you use your linear model for times far from 1980-2008.
Some years before 1980 might not have seen 2%. Maybe more or even less. Using dates that
are much further apart make it harder to see small growth such as 2%.

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

Population

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

10

15

Years after 1980

20

25

30

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