Monetary 2012E.C
Monetary 2012E.C
12/09/19 2
Introduction
Definition of monetary economics
Monetary economics is a branch of economics centred on money
and monetary relationships in the economy .
Focus on the role of money for economic development .
The fundamental questions of monetary economics concerns with
the proper definition of money.
How ever, it has micro and macro economic components .
The microeconomic part of monetary economics focus on theory of
money demand, money supply,equilibrium,the central bank and its
formation .
The macroeconomics part of monetary concerns the formulation of
monetary policy and its impact on the economy .
For short-run analysis, monetary economics is a central part of
macroeconomics.
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It concentrates on the links between money (shift of money
supply and money demand) on the one hand and general
prices level (inflation), national output (GDP),
employment ,export and import, exchange rate and balance of
payment and so on the other hand .
In sum, monetary economics investigates the relationship
between real variables at the aggregate level (like, output,
employment, real interest rates) & nominal variables (such as
inflation, money flow, nominal interest rates, etc .
It also deal with how actions of the central bank or
government transmit from money market to the rest of the
economy, and the effects of such monetary policy actions on
various economic variables like output and employment; and
what an optimal conduct of monetary policy should look
like.
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Chapter 1 : Money and Monetary Theory(5hrs).
Objective of this chapter
After the end of this chapter, students be able to ;
Define meaning, characteristics and functions of money.
Measure the value of money.
Under stand the evolution of the payment system.
Appreciate the different type of monetary theory.
Introduction
•We have had two types of economic system, barter economic system
and monetary economic system.
•In the former the direct exchange takes place goods with goods, but in
the later case, exchange takes place with money.
•In monetary economy is one which money is widely used and accepted
as a medium of exchange . It is monetized economy.
•In monetary economy money buy goods and goods buy money but
goods are not exchanged for goods directly but indirectly it did.
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• The origin of money is linked with the problems of the barter
economic system such as:
Lack of double-coincidence of wants=>Time consuming and
hindrance to the development and expansion of trade.
Lack of a common measure of value (Lack of common unit of
value)=>very high transaction cost=>one party is disadvantageous
in terms of trade.
The value of each good is required to be stated in as many quantities
as there are types and qualities of other goods and services .The
exchange rate formula given by professor Culbertson formula )
of exchange rate :
R=
•When most people talk about money, they're talking about currency(paper money
and coins).
•Currency consisting of paper money like birr and coins, clearly fits this definition
and is one type of money.
•According to Paul Samuelson, money is the modern medium of exchange and the
standard unit in which price and debt are expressed .
•Similarly money is referred as the money supply and it is anything that gets
generally accepted in payment for goods or services or in the repayment of debts.
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• It also refers to anything that is generally accepted in
payment for goods and services or in the repayment of
debts and is distinct from income and wealth.
• Wealth is all resource owned by an individual including all
assets while money is total collection of pieces of property
that serve to store value.
• Wealth includes not only money but also other assets such as
bonds, common stock, art, land, furniture, cars, and houses.
• Income is flow of earnings per unit of time but money is a
stock concept while money is a certain amount at a given
point in time.
• Professor Coulborn defines money as the means of valuation
and of payment; as both the unit of account generally
acceptable medium of exchange.
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• Coulborn's definition is very wide, he includes in it the 'concrete'
money such as gold, cheque , coins, currency notes, bank draft,
etc. and also abstract money which is the vehicle of our thoughts
of value, price, and worth.
• John Hicks to say that money is defined by its functions:
anything is money which is used as money: money is what
money does.
• These are the functional definitions of money because they define
money in terms of the functions it performs.
• Money is an asset which is used as a , a store of value and a
standard for deferred payment or value.
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• Some economists define money in legal terms, saying that
anything which the state declares as money is money. Such
money possesses general acceptability and has the legal power
to discharge debts. But people may not accept legal money by
refusing to sell goods and services against the payment of legal
tender money.
• On the other hand, they may accept some other things as money
which are not legally defined as money in discharge of debts
which may circulate freely. Such things are and notes issued by
commercial banks. Thus, besides legality, there are other
determinants which go to make a thing to serve as money.
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Characteristics (criteria ) of money
•The characteristics of money is the quality for a thing to be money .
2.It must be widely accepted for any thing to be money ,it should be
acceptable by every body i.e general acceptability.
5. It should be stored and last long without losing its value . It must
not deteriorate quickly i.e Durability .
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• Its value is derived from the relationship between supply and
demand .
• It will have value only, when the government (national bank )
declares that paper has accepted as money .
• It exists only, when the society accepts the government of the
country .
• Most modern economies are based on the fiat money system .
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• When the accounts in country are maintained in some other
courtiers currency there is difference between money of
account and money proper .
• Example: Germany after WWI,when money of account is
USA dollar and money proper was the Germany mark .
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Function of money
John law “What blood is to the body, Money to the state”.
The importance of money for modern economics is known by the
functions that it performs.
Money perform primary, secondary ,contingent and other functions .
1. Primary function
1)As a medium of exchange or payment
• This is the primary function of money because it is out of this
function that its other functions developed or it is the most basic
function of money is to serve as the medium of exchange.
•It is absolutely essential function of money.
• In our economy, money in the form of currency or checks is a medium
of exchange; it is used to pay for goods and services.
•The use of money as a medium of exchange promotes economic
efficiency by minimizing the time spent in exchanging goods and
services and permits specialization. 22
• By serving as a medium of exchange, money removes the
need for double coincidence of wants and the inconveniences
and difficulties associated with barter.
• The introduction of money as a medium of exchange
decomposes the single transaction of barter into separate
transactions of sale and purchase thereby eliminating the
double coincidence of wants.
• When money acts as a medium of exchange, it means that it is
generally acceptable. It, therefore, affords the freedom of
choice.
• This function of money also separates the transactions in time
and place because the sellers and buyers of a commodity are
not required to perform the transactions at the same time and
place.
• This is because the seller of a commodity buys some money
and money, in turn, buys the commodity over time and place.
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2) As a unit of account or unit of value or standard of value :
•Money is the standard for measuring value just as the yard or meter
is the standard for measuring length.
•It is used to measure value (value of goods and services ) in the
economy. Barter system lacks this function .
•Money is the common denominator which determines the rate of
exchange between goods and services which are priced in terms of
the monetary unit.
• When values are expressed in terms of money, the number of prices
are reduced from n(n-l) in barter economy to (n-1) in a monetary
economy.
•Money enables an orderly pricing system which is essential for:-
Rational economic calculation and choice .
Transmitting economic information among individuals.
•It is the central property of money . 24
2. Secondary(Subsidiary)function
•A store of value is used to save purchasing power from the time income is
received until the time it is spent.
•The ability to hold value over time .
•Money is a bridge from the present to the future .i.e money allow you to
transfer value or wealth in to the future.(keynes ).
•Money is not unique as a store of value; any asset whether money, stocks,
bonds, land, houses, art, or jewelry-can be used to store wealth.
•It is the necessary property of money .
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• Many such assets have advantages over money as a store of value:
They often pay the owner a higher interest rate than money,
experience price appreciation, and deliver services such as
providing a roof over one’s head.
• On the other hand, they have certain disadvantages as a store of
value, among which are the following:
3. They are “illiquid” in varying degrees, for they are not generally
acceptable as money and it may be possible to convert them into
money quickly only by suffering a loss of value.”
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2)Money as a standard of deferred payment
•Money act as a standard of deferred post ponded payments .i.e
a property of an item that makes it desirable for use as a means of
setting debt maturing in the future .
•Money has simplified both taking and repayment of loan
because the unit of account is durable .
•It is essential property of money .
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• Money links the present values with those of the future.
• It simplifies credit transactions.
• It makes possible contracts for the supply of goods in the
future for an agreed payment of money.
• It simplifies borrowing by consumers on hire-purchase and
from house building and cooperative societies.
• Money facilitates borrowing by firms and businessmen from
banks and other non-bank financial institutions.
• The buying and selling of shares, debentures and securities are
made possible by money.
• By acting as a standard of deferred payments, money helps in
capital formation both by the government and business
enterprises.
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• In fine, this function of money develops financial and capital
markets and helps in the growth of the economy.
• But there is the danger of changes in the value of money over
time which harms or benefits the creditors and debtors.
• If the value of money increase over time ,the creditors gain
and debtor loss.
• To over come this difficulty,some of the countries have fixed
debt contract in terms of a price index which measure changes
in the value of money .
• It makes possible contracts for the supply of goods in the future
for agreed payment of money .
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3) Money as a transfer of value
•Since money is a generally acceptable means of payments, and
act as a store of value ,it keeps on the transferring of value from
one person to person, place to place .
•A person who holds money in cash or assets can transfer that to
any other person.
3.Contingent function/incidental function /
Money also performs certain contingent or incidental functions,
according to Prof. David Kinley.
1)Money as the most liquid of all liquid assets
•Money as the most liquid of all liquid assets in which wealth is
held .
2) Basis of the credit system
•Money is the basis of all credit system . Credit economies the use
of money
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• A commercial bank cannot create credit without having sufficient money. on
various goods which he want to purchase .
3) Equalization of marginal utility and productivity
• For producers profit maximization MPL=w for single factor input.
• For consumer utility maximization Mux=Mum(Px) for a single commodity
case .
4) Measure of national income
• It help to measure national income .
• This is done when the various goods and services produced in a country are
assessed in money term .
5) Distribution of national income
• It help in the distribution of national income .
• Rewards for factors of production are determined and paid in terms of money .
4.Other functions of money
Help in making decisions . Money as a store of value and the consumers
meets his daily requirements on the basis of money held by him .
Money as a basis of adjustment in capital and money market was done
through money .
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Static Vs Dynamic function of money
The classification of function of money is also given by Einzing as
follows ;
•Money is of vital importance to the operation of the nation and
international economy due to the static and dynamic roles played by
it .
•Static functions are also known as 'passive;' ‘traditional’, ‘fixed; or
‘technical’ functions of money.
•They are performed under all conditions without causing any change
in the economy .
•Here money play the role money lies in removing the difficulty of
barter system in the above way i.e money serve as medium of
exchange, act as a unit of account ,act as a standard of deferred
payment ,store of value and as a portable materials.
•It is the stability value of money which is an essential quality to enable
money to fulfill its static function efficiently .
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• By its dynamic functions, money tend to exert a very
powerful influence on the general economic level of
progress .
• It is the role of money in life of a person in every economic
activities engagement such as its role to
consumer ,producer , to the government, to the society (base
of credit ), in the division of labour and specialization, as a
mean of capital formation ,as index of economic growth.
• Money perform its dynamic function by acting as a means of
distribution of social income ,and also as a means of
achieving social justice in the distribution .
• It bring equalization of in marginal utility in expenditure,
serve as a basis of credit ,imparts liquidity , mobility and
uniformity to capital .
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Significance of money
Marshal “money is the pivot around which the economic science
cluster”.
1.The role of money in capitalist economy
•Money is the life blood of the capital economy with out money.
• It does not function smoothly with out money or the symbol of
capitalism.
•Price mechanism is the main source of guidance, has to be
expressed in terms of money.
•Money is important for the producer to maximize the scale of
production and , important to maximize the satisfaction level of the
consumers under capitalist economy .
•It provide incentive for innovation and technological change .
•But some time money leads to business fluctuation or market failure
in capitalist economy and monopolistic exploitation .
•Al rage part of the economy is non monetized, so the market not
function properly .
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2.The role of money under command economic system
•Some socialist thinker believed that money play little role in
socialist economy(karl Marx and Lenin(surplus value theory)
since money is as the fundamental causes of exploitation of
labour by capitalist and he argued that in planned economy.
• It is possible to have trade of goods directly with goods,
following this soviet union abolished the uses of money in 1917.
•But the mistake was soon realized and the uses of money
essential for the success of planning and this calculation is
possible only with money (1920) .
•Money important for allocation of scarce resource .
•Money used for calculation and distribution of income .
•It is useful to use comprehensive social planning .
•Money allow freedom of choice in restricted manner .
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3.The role of money for mixed(hybrid) economic system
• The concept of mixed economy is of recent origin developed by
Latin American economists and many developing countries have
adopted the system of mixed economy including Denmark,
Sweden, Switzerland and Ethiopia .
•It is characterized by co-existence of public and private Sectors
economic welfare, economic planning, price mechanism and
economic equality.
•In this economic system money play a role of giving adequate
Freedom, rapid and planned economic development, social
welfare and fewer economic inequalities and reward based on
ability to work .
•But money may leads economic fluctuations, corruption and
black markets, if the private sector is not properly controlled and
if government policies, rules and directives are not effectively
implemented.
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Draw back or Defects of money
“Money is the source of all evil” rightly so . The bible says.
•Perhaps acting on this saying of the bible the classical economists did not attach
much important to money .
•Classical economists regard money as veil or garment or wrapper for goods and
service.
•They stated that money a tool for convenience to facilitate the exchange of
goods and services but it is not determinant of the quantity produced but money
is a useful servant ,often misbehaves when it tries to act like a master i.e it is said
“ Money is a good servant but a bad master’’ . Now economists regard money is
not merely veil (misbehave) but also extremely valuable (like good servant )social
instrument promoting wealth and welfare .
•As a master it leads to economic and non economic defects .
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Economic defect
1)Instability of value of money or fluctuation in the value of money
•When the value of money fail,i.e rise in price level or inflation it fails to
function of a standard of unit and store of value .
• When the value of money rise ,fall in the general price level or deflation.
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3) Wastage of resource or reinforce capitation : money as
abases of credit .
•When bank create too much credit ,it may be used for
productive or non productive purpose.
•If it is used for productive =>over capitalization resulting in
glaring inequality in the distribution of wealth as well as over
production .
•If it is used for unproductive use => misuse utilization of resource
which is wastage .
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4) Black money: It is created when people hoard or store money ,evade tax and
hide their income .
•The tendency to hoard money and become rich is the root cause of the evil of
black money .
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7) Money instead of being a blessing become a curse in abnormal
condition .
•Normally money and purchasing power are synonymous .
•If a person has money he has purchasing power. But during extraordinary
condition like war people have money but no purchasing power .
Example: Germany after WWI.
2. Non economic defects money
oIt has encouraged greed and acquisitiveness (interest to get money).
oIt has stimulate fraud ,theft , dacoit (armed robber) ,murder and so on .
oIt has created in men the desire to exploit others .
o It is responsible for the decline in spirituality in modern society .
oPolitical instability, tendency to exploit.
oGenerally ,It brought down the moral , social and political fiber of the
society i.e Political instability ,murder ,corruption ,artificiality in religion
based on materiality .
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• To summarize ,all these defects are not due to money but are
the result of the attribute of man to wards the use of money .
• It is impossible to image this world with out money.
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1.2 Measuring the value of money
•The term “Value of Money” means the purchasing power of
money or its buying capacity.
• It is the quantity of goods and services a unit of money can buy .
•It means the purchasing power of money over goods and services
in a country .
•The value of money is related to the price because goods and
service are purchased with a money unit at a given price .
•Value of money is the amount of thing in general which will be
given in exchange for a unit of money (Robertson).
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There are two type of value of money
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• Hence ,the value of money is defined and measured in relation
to the general level of price .
• How ever ,the general price level is based on the mixture of the
price level of all commodities, which means nothing
specifically.
• The general price level is a mere abstraction.
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• Hence, the value of money is not the same to every individual
when he goes out to spend it .
• According to Crowther “The value of money with out
qualification is almost meaning less”.
• To get over this difficulty, economists have arbitrarily laid
down certain standard to measure the value of money .
Crowther has distinguished three standard of the value of
money .
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1. The wholesale standard
• The value of money is expressed in terms of all those goods
and services that are transacted in the whole sale market .
• It is measured through the whole sale price indices ,
• It is usually preferred because whole sale prices are
recorded recorded regularly ,and are readily available .
2. The retailer (consumer)standard
• The value of money is expressed the value those goods and
services that ordinarily constitute the consumption item of
an average family .
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• Thus ,through consumer price index number ,the value of
money is measured .
• Two difficulty arise in formulation such standards .
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5. Selection of weight : Due weight age or
importance should be given to the various
commodity .
6. Selection of the base period: Base year is a
year against which comparison are made .
• It should be normal and free from any
unusual events such as famine ,war ,earth
quick drought .etc .
• It should not be either very recent or remote.
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There are two methods of selecting the base year
1.Fixed base method :- Either the average price of a period of a
years or the average price of some arbitrarily chosen can be
taken as abase year .
2.Chain base method :- The price relatives for each year are
calculated ,taking the previous year data as a basis year .
7. Selection of formula
•The construct of the appropriate index formula (simple price
index formula or weighted price index) ,depends on availability
of data ,the degree of accuracy desired ,the nature of the problem
under investigation and purpose of the index number ..
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Example : Illustration about the construct of a simple wholesale
price index as follows by assuming the year 2010 E.C as abase year .
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•This show an increase of 95 percent in the year 2011 over 2010E.C
or the general price level in 2011 E.C was 95 percent as high as in
2010E.C. Weight index gives highest price index than simple
method .
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• Not applicable to an individual belonging to a group for which it is
constructed .
• Even thought it face the above difficulty index number is are at best
approximation to measure change in the value of money .
The most commonly used indices are of;
1. Consumption or retail index: It is contracted by taking the price of
all final goods and service that enter in to the final consumption of the
people .
• Each item is weight on the basis peoples money income spent on it.
2. The whole sale index : It is contracted on the basis of the price of
wholesale commodity.
• It measures the changes in the value of good whose price are quoted
regularly in the wholesale market .
• The index is measured on the basis of the relative importance of
different commodity in the national economy as stated by census of
production .
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4) The cost of living index: It includes the retail price of the main
commodity of consumption entering in to the budget of the working
class people .
•It does not include persons services. In this way, it differ from
consumption index.
•It indicates the changes in the cost of living of the working class .
•It should be given special attention for giving weight to various goods .
5) International index :It is based on import and export of the country
•The main commodities that enjoy international market should be take
into account .
•On the basis of each commodity in the trade the country index is
weighted
•It helps to indicate the terms of trade of the country .
6. Industrial index number :The production statistics of various
industries are included while preparing this indices .
• It measure the change in industrial production .
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• For all index number the price relative method is used .
• It is generally preferred for two reasons;
1) Even if ,there were only a single commodity being bought and
sold, a price relatives and would most conveniently show
relatives and the index number is usually written ,with out the
decimal point ,as percentages .
2) The use of price relatives is all the more important when we
are working with many different price .
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The use of index number
•In measuring change in the value of money .
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1.3 The evolution of the payment system (Evolution of money)
•The world money derived from the Latin term “Moneta” which was the
surname of the Roman Godden's of Juno in whose template in Rome,
money was confined .
•The type of money in every age depends on the nature of its livelihood
In hunting society =Skin and hide ( Africa tiger jaw and Ivory)
Pastoral society = Livestock or cattle .
Agricultural society=Grain and food stuff (Bar salt Ethiopia during the
19th century) .
Greek was the first country to use coin as money
Ethiopia use coin as money during the Axumit kingdom .
•The evolution money or development of money has passed through the
following seven stage depending upon the progress of human civilization
at different time , place and circumstance
•Money is one of the most fundamental of all mans invention hence, the
fundamental discovery of economics is money.
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1. Animal money
• In primitive society cattle was being used as a medium of
exchange in Africa ,Europe and Asia . In the 4th century B.C in
Rome cow and sheep were used as money for colleting taxes and
fine.
• In hunting society skins of wild animal and in pastoral society
livestock used as a money .
2. Commodity money
In the primitive society in certain communities , commodities
served as money .The most widespread example of commodity
money is gold.
And the choice of the particular commodity to be used as
money was determined by factors such as: Location of the
community Climate, Culture and Economic development etc. of
the community. Example: people who live in Sea shore used
shells and fishes, and cold region used skins and furs and so on. .
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The problem (defect ) of commodity money
Lack of uniformity ,such as grain or cattle . And hence, it is
the difficulty in verifying quality.
Difficult to store and prevent loss of value in the case of
perishable commodities .
such a form of money is very heavy and is hard to transport
from one place to another.
Supplies of such commodities were uncertain .
They lacked in portability and hence ,were difficulty of
transfer from one place to another .
There was the problem of indivisibility such as using cattle as
a money.
Lack of transferability. etc.
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3. Metallic money
• The spread of civilization and trade relations by land ,sea ,metallic
money took the place of commodity .
• Many nations started using gold , silver , copper and bronze etc.
were used as a medium of exchange .
• But metal was an inconvenient things to accept ,weight divide and
assess in quality. Accordingly , metal was made in to coin of
predetermined weight. Thus coins came to be accepted as convenient
methods of exchange.
• The ancient Greeks used coins as money in the first time in the
world .
Defects of metallic money
•According to official records it was since the third century A.D
(during the reign of King Endybis and Aphilas) that Axumite
kingdom was using its own coins for both internal and external
trading. Then after during 18 and 19 the century Maria Theresa. 66
• On account of its bulkiness or Being heavy ,it was not
possible to carry large sum of money in the form of coin from
one place to another place by merchant ,
• It was not possible to change its supply according to the
requirement of the nation both for internal and external use ,
• lack of feasibility for rapid transactions, additionally metallic
money was unsafe and inconvenient to carry precious metal
for trade purpose over long distance .
• Metallic money very expensive because their debasement and
their minting cost a lot to the government metallic money
could last only up to 17th century .
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4. Paper money
•It economies the uses of metallic money .
•The development of paper money started with goldsmiths which
kept strong safe to store their gold .
•As goldsmith were thought to be honest merchants, people started
keeping their gold with them for safe custody .
•In turn ,the goldsmith gave the depositors a receipts for
promising to return the gold on demand .
•These receipts of the goldsmith given to the sellers of commodity
by the buyers . Such paper money was backed up by gold and can
be converted into gold on demand .
•This ultimately led to the development of bank note .
•The bank note are issued by the central bank of the country .
•The price of bank note increase as the demand for gold and silver
increase .
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• Gradually , the convertibility of bank note in to silver and gold given
up during the beginning and after WWI in all courtiers of the world .
• Since then the bank money has ceased to be representative money
and is simply fiat money which is inconvertible and is accepted as
money because it is backed by law .
• The paper money was introduced by John lock in china. In Ethiopia
the paper money issued by the bank of Abyssinia for the first time
in 1914 .
• But, it was strange to the society and it failed to get acceptance since
the people were familiar only with the metallic coins.
• Paper money was again issued by the bank of Ethiopia (the successor
of the Bank of Abyssinia) in 1932.
• These notes were 100 percent backed by gold deposits and hence
were being used as a medium of exchange along with the sat bar and
the Maria Theresa until the interruption by the Italian occupation of
1936.
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• In 1941 when the country was liberated from the brief Italian
occupation it had no national currency and financial
institutions. Following the restoration of independence in
1941, many foreign currency started to be used as medium of
exchange including Italian Lire.
• The Maria Theresa Dollar, the East African Shilling, the
Indian Rupee, and the Egyptian Pound circulating as medium
of exchange.
• While the Lire was a relic of the Italian occupation and the
Maria Theresa Dollar a carry over from earlier periods, the
rest of the currencies were introduced by the British military
forces who helped liberate the country and assumed
responsibility in its administration .
• It was only in July 1945 that the Ethiopian government issued
the new national currency birr.
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Defect of paper money
•Restricted accessibility. The acceptability of paper money
limited to domestic country but the rest of the world are not ready
to accept it for payment.
•Fluctuation in the rate of exchange for paper money than
metallic money.
•Demonetarization of paper money i.e if it demonetized, it will
have a worthless piece of paper in his hand .
•Lack of durability i.e it can be easily destroyed ,and then it
will have no value .
•Dangerous inflation (serious defect) due to over issue .
•Less stability: some time it is over issued and people lack
confidence in the value of paper money and they keep their
saving interns of gold and silver .
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5. Credit money (bank money)
•With the growth of banking system credit or bank money developed .
To day most large transaction were carried out through cheques and
only small transactions were managed through currency money .
•Credit money is create and transferred by the commercial bank in the
form of cheque .But they are not legal tender money .
•The cheque is like a bank note in that it performs the same function.
•It is a means of transferring money or obligations from one person to
another. But a cheque is different from a bank note.
• A cheque is made for a specific sum, and it expires with a single
transaction.
•But a cheque is not money. It is simply a written order to transfer
money.
•However, large transactions are made through cheques these days and
bank notes are used only for small transactions.
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6. Near money
•They are close substitutes for money and are liquid assets.
•The final stage in the evolution of money has been the use near
moneys such as ;bill of exchange , treasury bill,
bond ,debenture ,saving certificate etc.
Draft and Bill of exchange :
•financial documents which are attached with promise to pay the
specific amount in the future .
•It is I owe you ,
•The time period last for 3 months not more than 90 days .
•It is used to make payment regarding export ,import and other
domestic or international transaction .
Treasury Bills
•Whenever govt. wants to borrow from public it sells its treasury bills.
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• Such bills are sold when govt. faces budget deficit .They are
called bills because they are attached with a specific time period
and promise to pay in future. It is paid in 30,60 and 90 days by
the government .
• It is like bill of exchange paid at discount with a short period
Bonds: The bonds are the written form of loans. Whenever,
govt. or some institution is in need of money they issue bonds.
• Bond ,security and debenture falls in the same category .
• Bond issued by the government while ,debentures are issued by
the private sector .
• They are the means to borrow fund for short ,medium and long
period and carry a fixed rate of interest.
• They are near money assets because they convertible into cash at
short notice in the money .
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Saving Certificates
• In addition to banks so many non-bank institutions have also
emerged which issue a variety of saving certificates.
• In addition to above mentioned, the travelers cheques, insurance
policies, savings of general provident fund, prize bonds and
money orders also represent Near Moneys.
Life insurance policy
• The holder of a life insurance policy can obtained cash in the
form of loan on his policy at a short notice .
7.Electronical money
Electronic money (or e-money), money that exists only in
electronic form. 75
• One form of e-money is the debit card.
• Debit cards enable consumers to purchase goods and services
by electronically transferring funds directly from their bank
accounts to a merchant’s account.
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1. The Conventional Approach
• This is the oldest approach developed by J.M Keynes .
• A method of defining money supply or money by looking at money as a
medium of exchange .
• According to this the most important function of money in society is to act
as a medium of exchange.
• It is a measure of money stock intended primarily for use in transactions.
It implies superior liquidity and high power money .
• It consists of Currency in the hands of the public plus checkable deposits
in commercial banks .
• Currency (c)
• Demand deposits in commercial banks (DD)
• Thus according to the conventional definition M=C+DD
78
• This is the narrow definition of money.
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• Such as checking account checking or saving account
accessible by Teller or ATM.
• Where as Time deposit is an interest bearing bank deposit
account that has a specific date of maturity and include the
under standing that the depositor can make withdrawal by
giving notice. Example : certificate deposit (CD) .
• Time deposit(term deposit) impose condition on the
amount ,frequency and period of withdrawal .
• It is important to note that among deposits, it is only demand
deposits which serve as a medium of exchange.
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2. The Chicago approach
•The Chicago economists led by Professor Milton Friedman
adopted a broader definition of money and symbolized as M2.
•A method of defining and measuring the money supply by looking
at money as a temporary store of value .
•Their argument is that since in the economy money income and
spending flow streams are not perfectly synchronized in time in
order to function as a medium of exchange, money should be
temporarily stored as a general purchasing power.
•M2=M1+savings deposits in commercial banks.
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• This could be in the form of currency, demand deposits or
time deposits (including saving deposits).
M = C + DD + SD + TD,
Where M is money , C–Currency SD –Saving deposits , DD–
Demand deposits ,TD –Time deposits .
• The Chicago economist advanced two reasons for including
time and saving deposits in the definition of money.
i. National income is more highly correlated with money that
includes saving and time deposits than money narrowly
defined.
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ii. According to economic theory, perfect or near perfect
substitutes of a commodity should be included in the definition
of a single commodity.
• According to Chicago economist time deposits (deposits which
are not payable on demand and on which cheques can’s be
drawn) are very close substitutes for currency and demand
deposits.
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3.Gurley and Shaw approach
•This approach is associated with the names of Professor John G.
Gurley and Edwards Shaw.
•According to these economists there exists a fairly large spectrum
of financial assets which are close substitutes for money.
•They emphasized the close substitution relation ship between
currency, demand deposits, commercial deposits, saving
deposits, credit issued by credit institution, shares, government
bonds etc all of which are regarded as alternative liquid stores of
value by the public.
84
• A rapid growth of deposits held by non-bank financial
institutions (n.b.f.is) has increased their practical importance as
a source of credit.
• M= C + DD + SD + TD + non– clearing bank Deposits +
n.b.f.i deposits.
• The definition includes all deposits of and the claims of all
types of financial intermediaries.
• It assigns weights to each asset in the definition of money to
come up with the total supply of money.
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• For instance it gives a weight of one to currency and demand
deposits as they are perfect substitutes and zero to houses
which are imperfect substitutes weights such as 0.25, 0.5,
0.75, 0.8, etc would be assigned to different assets according
to the degree of substitution.
• Theoretically this approach is superior to the Chicago which
assigns equal weights to all items in the definition of money
ranging from currency to time deposits. However practically
it is difficult to implement it.
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4) The central bank approach(Radcliff committee)
• This approach, which has been favored by the commercial bank authorities,
take the widest possible view of money.
M = C + DD + SD + TD + non–clearing bank deposits + NBFI(Non-bank
financial institution) deposits + credit lines.
•Non- clearing bank deposit :
•Credit line(LOC) is an arrangement between finical institution, usually a
bank ,and a customer, that established the maximum amount of loan that the
customer can borrow .
•NBFI they are financial institution but don’t have full banking license such as
insurance agencies , microfinance, credit union and friendly society etc
•Money is identified with the credit extended by various sources. The reason
for identifying.
87
• Money with credit used in the broadest possible sense of the term lies in the
central banks historic position that “total credit availability’’ constitutes the
key variable for regulating the economy.
• In general two pragmatic means could be uses to define the money supply of a
particular country.
1) The definition utilized should depend on the particular problem being studied.
Example: if an analysis of the effect of the money supply on economic activity is
being undertaken, the appropriate definition of money supply is the one that
provides the best statistical results. If M1, is statistically predictable than M2,
monetary policy should be couched in terms of that narrow definition.
2) A method of identifying a break in the spectrum of assets to separate money
• If the substitutability b/n DD and TD is lower than that between TD and other
liquid assets, then the definition of money should be limited to currency and
demand deposits. 88
Chapter Review questions
1.Discuss the principal difficulty faced by a barter economy ?
2.Define the meaning of money in your own word ?
3.Money is what money does explain this statement and define
money ?
4.Describe the various stages in the evolution of money ?
5. Discuss the nature and functions of money ?
6.List and distinguish the different type of money ?
7. Discus precisely the theories of money ?
8.What is the value of money ?
9.How are changes in the value of money measured ?what are the
limitation of this measurements ?
10.What are index number ? How they are constructed ? Discuss
the difficulty faced in constructing an index number ?
11.List the uses of index number ?
89
Money related quotes
1.Money is what money does? Explain
2.Money is the source of all evil ?Explain
3.Money is the pivot around which the economic science cluster”.
Examine critically
4.Money is a good servant but a bad masters ? Explain
12/09/19 90
Chapter 2
Chapter 2: An overview of the Financial System and Interest
Rates (7Hrs)
2.1 Functions and structures of Financial Markets
2.2 Financial Instruments
2.3 Financial intermediaries
2.4 Interest rates and their measurement
አዉደ ኢኮኖሚ ኢኮኖሚ(econ@estat .com )
12/09/19 91
Objectives of chapter two
• After the end of this chapter, the students be able to
under stand ;
• The meaning of financial systems.
• Explain the meaning and type of financial markets .
• Identify the type of financial institutions .
• Differentiate capital marker from money market .
• Appreciate the role of financial institutions for the
development of a nation .
• Understand different theories of interest rate .
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• Financial system consists of financial market and financial
institutions.
• Financial institutions are the rules of the game which facilitate the
flow of funds from savers(lender) to borrower's in the most efficient
manner.
• Guiding purchasing power from surplus sending's/savers (households)
to deficit spending units (borrowers). Such as; some households, some
state and local government, federal governments and a large number of
businesses firms.
• There are three types financial institution;Formal
(banks),Informal(equb and Semi-formal financial institution(Saving
and credit cooperatives(SACCOS ).
93
2.1. Functions and structures of Financial Markets
Financial market is an institutional in which long term and short term financial assets were transacted
between buyers and sellers i.e.
• The institutional arrangements for dealing in financial assets and credit instruments of different type
such as currency ,cheques, bank deposit, bill and bond. etc.
•They are in essence are the credit markets .
The main function of the financial market
To facilitate creation and allocation of credit and liquidity .
To serve as intermediaries in the process of mobilization of saving in the economy .
To provide financial convenience to the people .
To assist the process of economic development through a more balanced regional and sectorial
distribution of investible fund .
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There are two types of institutions in financial markets
I)Depository institution : The institution which keeps deposit.
• Those which accepts deposit from the individual and firm and use these funds for
advancing loan in the debt market or purchase other debt instruments such as treasury
bill .
1. Commercial Bank: They are the larges and most important depository institution which
keep deposit of individuals and firms in various type of accounts in the form of cash
and assets and use them for advancing loans .
2. Saving and Loan Association: They are operate by individual by collecting their
savings in in mutual association.
• They convert their saving funds in to mortgage loan.
4. Mutual Saving Bank: They operate like saving and loan associations.
• They only difference in that they are established on the basis of co-operation by
employee of some company ,trade union or other institutions .
5. Cooperative Saving and Credit Society: The members of saving and credit cooperative
societies purchase share of the cooperative societies, deposit their saving with them and
borrow from them.
• They establish based on cooperative proclamations .
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II)Non- depository
• Non-depository institutions operates in financial market as financial intemidaires and
provide insurance against financial risks such as ;
1) Mutual fund: Sell their shares to individual and firm and invest the proceeds in
various type of assets . Some mutual funds ,known as money market mutual funds,
invest in short term safe assets such as treasury bill,certificate of deposit of banks etc.
2) Insurance company: It protects individuals and firms against risk .
• The premium they receive from the individuals by insuring their live ,they invest the
same in advancing loans for long term assts ,mortgage, construction of house ,etc.
• on the other hand , the premium received by them for insurance against loss, from
fire ,theft ,accident, etc. of truck ,car ,building ,etc .
• Is invested in short term asset .
4) Pension fund : private and government cooperates, ,and central ,state and local
government deposit some amount in pension funds by deducting a certain amount
from the salaries of their employees(15%) .
• Pension fund institutions or corporate invest these funds in long term assets .
5) Brokerage firms : They link buyers and sellers of financial assets .
• As such ,they function as intermediaries and earns a fee for each transactions .
• They operate only in the secondary debt market and equity market .
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Based on the credit criteria, we have two type of financial
market.
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• The money market is not one market but is a collective name given to
the various forms and institutions that deals with various grade of near
money .
• It is a net work of markets that are grouped together because the deal
in financial instruments that have similar function in the economy and
are to some degree substitute from the point view of holder .
• Thus the money market consists of sub -money markets like ;
1. Call market :
2. Notice market
3. Commercial bill market
4. Commercial paper market
5. Treasury bill market
6. Inter-bank market
7. The collateral loan market
8. The acceptance market
• 99
• All this market are closely interrelated, so as to make the money
market.
• It is a wholesale where large number of financial asset or instruments
are traded.
• The money market is divided into two ;
2. Open (impersonal) money market: The bank may provide short term
fund to business and government by simply purchasing the debt
instrument issued by business firm and government .
100
• Such short run term advance are made in the open market ,and
being negotiated through the broker ,the lender banks and the
borrowers do not meet .
• The intermediaries comprise ,central bank (federal reserve
banks, commercial banks, insurance company, business
corporations, brokerage houses ,financial companies.
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Function of money market
•It provide short term fund to the public and private institution.
•It provides an opportunity to the bank and other institution to
use their surplus funds profitably for a short period .
•It remove necessary borrowing by the commercial bank from
the central bank .
•It help the government in borrowing short term fund at a lower
interest rate on the basis of treasury bill.
•It help financial mobilization .
•It promote liquidity and safety which encourage investment
and saving .
•It helps to bring Equilibrium between money supply and
money demand of loanable fund.
•Economizing the use of cash, since it uses near money.
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Institutions of money market
103
• It the pivotal around which the entire money market revolves.
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2. Commercial bank
•All over the world, it is the most important financial institution.
•They usually deploy (bring) their short term deposit to lend for
short term loan to provide working capital to industry and trade .
•They invest bill of exchange and treasury bill.
•These assets are considered as the secondary reserve for the bank.
•The commercial bank also borrow from other banks and central
bank.
105
3. Non bank financial intermediaries
• This are non -bank financial intermediaries lend short term funds to borrower in the
money market .
• Such financial intermediaries are; investment house, insurance company ,provident
fund, other financial corporations.
•They act as intermediaries between those who have surplus fund to invest in bill and those
who are in need of fund.
•Its primary function is to discount bill on behave of other.
•They in turn form the commercial bank and accept the houses.
106
• Along with the discount house there is a bill broker in the
money market who act as inetremidariery between borrower
and lender by discounting bill of exchange at nominal
commission .
• In developing economy only bill broker will operate .
6.Acceptance house or market
• It is specializes in providing credit worthiness to the bill of
exchange of their customers by giving their acceptance to the
bill.
• They act as the agent between the exporters and importers
and between lender and borrower traders .
• By accepting the trade bill they guarantee the payment of bill
at maturity.
• But to day, this activity conducted by the commercial bank of
a given nation.
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7) Collateral loan market
• When loans are offered against collateral securities like; stock
and bonds ,they are called collateral loans and the market is
known as collateral loan market.
• This market is geographically most diversified .
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Characteristics of developed money market
•Developed commercial banking system since it is the major
suppliers of short term credit .
•Presence of a powerful central bank since it is the guardian of
the money market.
•Integrated interest rate structure that is change in central bank
rate should be quickly followed by change in other rate of
interest .
•Well defined and sensitive sub- markets.
109
• Varity of financial instruments that is there should be
adequate supply of a varity of cheap remittance facilities will
enable flow of funds as well as result in making the interest
rate sensitiveness .
• Sensitiveness to change central bank policy .
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The above is not doing so in least developing counties and hence
market in LDCs .
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2.Capital market (Long term funds market )
•It is used to describe the institutional arrangement for facilitating
the borrowing and lending of long term funds or long term loan
i.e it is the market for long term fund .
•Capital markets deal with the trading of securities.
•The fund which flow in the capital market comes from individual
who have saving to invest ,the merchant banks ,the commercial
bank ,non bank financial intermediaries, such as insurance
company, finance house , unit trusts ,investment trust ,venture
capital , leasing finance ,mutual fund building society .
112
• Capital markets provide avenue/opportunity where
companies can raise funds to expand on their businesses or
establish new ones by issuing securities owned by the
companies.
• Like businesses in the private sector, government issue its
securities to raise funds in capital markets to build
electricity dam, construct new roads, bridges by issues.
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• Long term fund required by the industry or the government .
• It is a period up to 25 years .
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We have two types of capital market
12/09/19 115
Function of capital market
•It act as an important link between saver and investors since
capital market is the transmission mechanism between surplus
unit and deficit unit .
•It gives incentive to savers / reward interest/ and investors /
allow capital formation.
•It creates stability in the value of stock and security by providing
capital at to the need at reasonable interest rate and help in
minimizing speculative activity.
•It encourage economic growth since they convert financial assets
in to physical assets .
116
• It promote employment.
• Promote wealth.
• It provides a revenue for channelizing the saving for productive
economic activity.
Institution of the capital market
1) The Stock Exchange market is one of the institutions in the
Capital markets.
• It is an organized market in securities (shares, stocks and bonds).
• On this market, individuals and companies can buy shares of
companies through licensed dealing member (stockbrokers) of the
stock exchange and hence become part owners or shareholders of
these companies.
• No stock market in Ethiopia ,chamber of stock market in Ethiopia
is institutionally established in 2011E.C .
117
• Similarly, individuals or companies through stock brokers can buy
stocks and bonds of other companies and the government,and become
lenders to or creditors of these companies or the Government.
• Any individual or company who at one time or the other lent money
or bought shares through the stock exchange can also sell back the
relevant shares or stocks through the stock exchange at any time.
• The stock exchange has its rules and regulations which govern it.
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2)Mutual funds
• An investment programme funded by share holders that trades in
diversified holding and is professionally managed .
• They sell equity shares (equity) to the investors and use this fund
to purchase stock and or bond .
• The value of a share of a mutual funds is not fixed(no fixed
interest),it change with the change in the price of stock in the
investment portfolio .
5) Investment trust:
•A limited company which buy and sell shares in selected
companies to make a profit for its members.
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• A company whose shares can be bought on the stock exchange
and whose business is to make money by buying and selling
stocks and shares. Also called investment company .
• It is a vehicle established to enable many small investors pool
their funds together and enjoy the benefits of diversification
and professional management at low cost without impairing
the liquidity and safety of the investment.
• In some jurisdictions it is called Mutual Fun.
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6) The development bank: A bank which lend money for
investors in agriculture and construction or developmental
activities. E.g. Ethiopian Development Bank .
7. Community Savings Schemes otherwise known as eqube is
the informal way of capital formation by traders or other
individuals by making periodic contributions of various amounts.
• These schemes are used by low income earners to acquire
assets, initial capital for petty trading, etc.
122
2.2 Financial Instruments
123
2) Bill of exchange or commercial bills (trade or commercial bill)
• It is a written order requiring a person to make a specified
payment to the signatory or to a named payee .
• It is a written promise on the part of a business to day to another a
certain sum of money at any agreed future date.
•It is arises from genuine trade transaction.
•The seller after selling his good, draw a bill upon the buyer who
agree to pay the specified amount either on demand after a
stipulated period generally not exceeding 3 months .
•When the buyer signs the document signify his acceptance,it
become a commercial paper called a bill of exchange .
•It is drawn by the creditor and has to be accepted by the bank or
the debtor.
•The creditor can discount the bill of exchange either with broker
or bank .
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3. Treasury bills
•They are payable to the bearers.
128
7. Commercial paper market
•It is issued by high rated company to rise short term working
capital requirements directly from the market instead of
borrowing from the bank .
•Commercial paper is a promise by the borrower company to pay
the loan at specific date ,normally for a period of 3-6 months.
•It is short term unsecured promissory note issued by companies .
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• All this financial institution comprise the money market and work
interdependently and interrelated with one another.
2. Debenture of corporations:
• An acknowledgement of a debt issued by a limited company. Debentures
pay a fixed interest and are very long-dated.
130
3. Stocks and bonds are long-term fixed interest bearing
securities issued by Government and companies.
•Stock is the capital raised by a company through the issue and
subscription of shares(usually stocks) a portion of this as held by
an individual or group as an investment.
•Bond is a certificate issued by a government or a public
company promising to repay borrowed money at a fixed rate of
interest at a specified time.
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• When one invests in stocks and bonds, one gets interest
income, which is paid periodically until the loan matures or
is called back by the issuer.
• The holder of stocks and bonds gets interest even if, the
issuer does not make a profit.
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• It represent part-ownership in a business concern.
• Shareholders, therefore, between them own the company,
have a vote in how it's affairs are run and if the company
makes profit, they are entitled to a share of it.
• However, the dividend which shareholders receive is
dependent on the company's profitability and management
decisions such as company shares, bonds issued by
governments in private companies, units in collective
investment Schemes, debentures, commercial paper and note
12/09/19 133
6) Mortgages: They are debt instrument used to finance the
purchase of a home or other form of real estate when the under
lining real estate serves as collateral for the loan .
•It is a legal agreement by which a bank, building society, etc.
lends money at interest in exchange for taking title of the debtor's
property, with the condition that the conveyance of title becomes
void upon the payment of the debt. They are two type
1.Adjusted rate Mortgages: The celling (maximum) and floor
interest rate will be charged during the life of the mortgage is
determined .
2.Fixed rate mortgages: interest rate is fixed .
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Interrelation ship between money and capital market
• In practical there is a thin line of demarcation between money
and capital market, because quite often, the same institution
participate in the activity of both market ,and there is a flow of
fund between the two market.
•Lender may choose to direct their funds to either or both markets
depending up on the availability of fund ,the rate of return, and
their investment policy .
•Borrower may obtain their funds to either or both market
according to their requirements.
12/09/19 135
• Some corporation and financial institutions serve both markets by
buying and selling short term and long term securities .
• All long term securities become short term at the time of maturity.
12/09/19 136
2.3. Financial intermediaries
•Financial intermediaries are institutions that intermediate in the
financial process between ultimate borrowers and ultimate lenders in
the economy.
•The process of indirect finance using financial intermediaries,
called Financial intermediation, is the primary way for moving
funds from lenders to borrowers.
•Financial intermediaries are a far more important source of
financing for corporations than securities markets are.
•Financial intermediaries are financial institutions operating in a
money market. 137
• They are the link between the borrowers and the lenders.
The ultimate borrowers include;
A. Consumers who need to borrow to finance part or all of their
consumption.
B. Firms that borrow to invest in physical capital;
C. The government when it borrows to finance its deficits.
• The financial intermediaries transfer the savings of lenders
(also known as surplus units) to the borrowers also known as
deficit units)by purchasing primary securities and issuing
secondary securities.
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• These secondary securities are the currency issued by the
central bank, demand and time deposits of commercial
banks, savings deposits, insurance and pension funds of non-
monetary intermediaries both the primary and secondary
securities are known as financial assets.
• When the primary securities are purchased directly by surplus
income units, it is called as direct financing and when theses
are purchased through financial intermediaries then it is called
as indirect financing.
12/09/19 139
• The ultimate lenders are the economic units that save part of
their current income by spending less than their current
income on their purchases of commodities and want to lend
some or all of these savings to others for some duration.
• Householders form the major bulk of the ultimate lenders,
saving part of their current income.
• Some of the firms engaged in production also do not spend all
of their sales revenue on immediate purchases of inputs or
distribute them to shareholders as distributed profits but save
part of them (i.e. keeping some profits as retained earnings).
• They are sometimes willing to lend part of these retained
earnings to others. The government does the same on a net basis
when it runs a surplus.
• Financial intermediaries borrow from the ultimate lenders or
from other intermediaries by issuing their own liabilities in
exchange and relend to others by accepting the latter’s liabilities.
• In the modern economy, only a small proportion of the savings
is directly transferred from the savers to the ultimate
borrowers.
141
• Most of the savings are directed by the savers to financial
intermediaries such as banks, mutual funds, pension funds,
insurance companies, etc., which re-channel the funds thus
obtained to firms and the government, either directly by buying
their shares and bonds or indirectly through other financial
intermediaries such as investment banks.
• The basic reason for this intermediation is the differences in the
preferences of the savers for asset characteristics, such as
liquidity and security, and those attaching to the instruments
issued by the firms and the government.
12/09/19 142
• Consequently, there is in general a considerable difference in
the characteristics of the liabilities sold to the savers by a
financial intermediary and those of the assets bought by it,
resulting in what is sometimes called the asset–transmutation
process.
• Banks are financial intermediaries that borrow from the public
by inviting demand and time deposits or issuing their own
securities and hold the liabilities issued by others .
143
There are two types of financial intermediaries:
A. Banking institutions
•Banks are the most important financial intermediary in the monetary system.
For example, the intermediation by the commercial banks means the ultimate
borrowers sell their primary securities to these banks and receive money in the
form of demand deposits in these banks.
• The demand deposits are mostly spent by the borrowers to produce and
purchase current output.
•The lenders acquire financial assets from the borrowers through bank deposits.
•The bank intermediation has therefore, led to the transfer of un spent incomes
form the surplus to deficit units.
144
B. Non bank financial intermediaries
• The non bank financial intermediaries refer to those financial
institutions, other than the banking companies, which are
engaged in some form of borrowing and lending activities.
• These include building societies, hire purchase companies,
Insurance companies, causality insurance companies , saving
and credit cooperatives, pension, common trust fund ,mutual
saving bank, credit union , the investment and unit trusts.
•They pool funds from net savers and lend them to finance
expenditure of business firm and local bodies .
145
• Regarding to the intermediation by the non-banking financial
intermediaries, ultimate lenders issue checks and present them
to these financial institutions making a demand on their deposits
with commercial banks.
• These institutions endorse the checks and send them to the
commercial banks.
• The commercial banks purchase primary securities from ultimate
borrowers who now have demand deposits in them which they
spend for the purchase of current output and are ultimate received
by the financial institutions have created secondary securities and
the lenders have acquired financial assets.
12/09/19 146
• This process only involves the transfer of bank deposits from the ultimate lenders
to the non banking financial institutions then to ultimate borrowers and finally
back to ultimate lenders.
• The banks have not intermediated in this process and their role has been confined
only to that of administering the transfer of demand deposits in their ledgers.
TYPES OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES
We have three types of financial intermediaries.
1. Depository institutions
2. Contractual Savings Institutions
3. Investment Intermediaries
147
1. Depository institutions are financial intermediaries that accept
deposits from individuals and institutions and make loans.
• These intuitions include commercial banks and the so-called
thrift institutions (thrift):
D) Commercial bank
• Their behavior plays an important role in determining the
money supply.
148
2. Contractual Savings Institutions
•It includes insurance companies and pension funds, mortgage
stock exchange ,are financial intermediaries that acquire funds at
periodic intervals on a contractual basis.
•Because they can predict with reasonable accuracy how much they
will have to pay out in benefit in the coming years, they do not have to
worry as much as depository institutions about losing funds.
• These institutions include life insurance companies, Fire and
casualty insurance, companies, and pension funds and government
retirement funds.
149
3. Investment Intermediaries
•This category of financial intermediaries includes Finance
companies, money market mutual funds ,investment trust etc.
•They keep the rate of interest low and thus promote investment
which is essential for the economic growth of the country.
12/09/19 150
• In the LDCs these financial intermediaries have a very special role
to play.
• Reduce risk and bring stability in capital market .
12/09/19 152
• Non-Bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) pool resources from
the savers and channelize them to provide funds, to business
firms and local bodies.
• The NBFIs provide all round help to the different sectors of the
economy. i.e they enable the households sector to put its surplus
funds into profitable uses. They also provide its consumer
credit loans and mortgage loans etc.
• Thus, they promote saving and investment habit among the
members of the society.
• They help the business sector by providing loans, mortgage for
their projects and by purchasing bonds and shares, etc. In this
way they facilitate investment in plant, equipment, etc.
• By purchasing their bonds and securities they lend a helping
hand to the governments at various levels.
12/09/19 153
• These intermediaries can be of immense help to the central bank
in the execution of its credit and monetary policies and thus in
promoting economic growth. They create large financial assets
and liabilities.
• They provide the economy with money supply. In this way
they smooth the working of financial markets and thus help the
growth to the economy.
• Since the financial markets provide directions to the economy,
the monetary and credit policies of the central bank are
implemented in such a way that the functioning of the financial
markets is not disturbed.
• Since the NBFIs are an important link between the ultimate
lenders and the ultimate borrowers, they discourage hoarding,
mobilize saving and channelize them in to investment and thus
promote economic growth.
12/09/19 154
• They compete among themselves which results in the
lowering of interest rates.
• Since the NBFIs invest their savings into primary securities,
the prices of securities go up and the rates of interest fall.
• Low rates of interest benefit both the savers and the
investors.
• The real costs of lending to borrowers are reduced, which in
turn, reduce the costs and prices of goods and services.
• The savers benefit because the NBFIs provide greater safety
to their funds and other facilities and services and thus
increase real return and income from their savings.
• Since these intermediaries take the risk on themselves, they
reduce the risk of the lenders and borrowers.
12/09/19 155
•
Tips
Banks, insurance companies and microfinance institutions were the major financial institutions operating
in Ethiopia.
• The number of banks still remained 18 of which 16 are private and 2 are state-owned.
• In 2017/18, banks opened 500 new branches, raising the total number of branches to 4757 from 4257 in
the previous year. As a result, bank branch to population ratio stood at 1:20,286.55 people in 2017/18.
About 35.3 percent of the total bank branches were located in Addis Ababa.
• Major branch expansion was undertaken by Wegagen bank (69 branches), followed by Dashen Bank (66
branches), Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (65 branches), Lion International Bank (52 braches), Cooperative
Bank of Oromiya (45 branches), Awash International Bank (43 branches), Buna International Bank (33
branches) and Abyssinia Bank (31 branches).
• The share of private banks in total branch network rose to 68.8 percent from 66.6 percent last year
signifying the steady growth in private banks branch. (Source,NBE,2018 annual report ).
• The number of insurance companies remained at 17, their branches increased to 532 following the opening
of 40 new branches in 2017/18 alone.
• About 53.6 percent of
• Insurance branches were situated in Addis Ababa and 84 percent of the total branches were private owned.
• Although there is no secondary market in Ethiopia, government bonds are occasionally issued to finance
government (Treasury bill ).
• NBE has introduced NBE-Bill market so as to mobilize resource from private banks for financing of
priority sectors which are identified as the driving forces of the economy.
• NBE sell bond in Bonds Market for City Government of Addis Ababa, Railway Corporation, EEPCO and
regional government
• The interbank money market remained inactive in Ethiopia due to the existence of excess reserves in the
banking system .
156
2.4. Interest rates and their measurement
12/09/19 157
• It is the amount charged, expressed as a percentage of
principal, by a lender to a borrower for the use of assets.
• Interest rates are typically noted on an annual basis, known as
the annual percentage rate(r).
• The assets borrowed could include ,cash, consumer goods,
large assets, such as a vehicle or building.
• Interest is essentially a rental, or leasing charge to the
borrower, for the asset's use.
• In the case of a large asset, like a vehicle or building, the
interest rate is sometimes known as the lease rate.
12/09/19 158
12/09/19 159
r= I /p*t ,where I interest income , p stand for
principal ,t is time period in year and r stands
for interest rate .
For compound interest rate
A=p(1+r)t if interest rate is calculated yearly basis
r = (A/p)t -1.
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12/09/19 161
162
The major function of interest in modern economy
1.It encourage consumer to save more .
2.It provide capital for constructive productive service and their by
helps the economic growth.
3.It help the allocation of savings in different productive channel .
4.It regulate the flow of funds .
Measuring Interest rate
Gross and net interest
Gross interest :The actual amount paid by the borrower to the
capitalists as the price of capital fund borrowed .
• It includes the following elements;
1.Compensation for risk : giving loan to some body always
involve a risk that the borrower man not repay it .
2.Net interest rate (pure interest ): The payment made
exclusively for the use of capital . 163
3) Compensation for inconvenience
• A leader lends only by saving ,i.e,by restricting consumption out of
his income, which obviously involve some inconveniency which
is to be compensated and lenders may not get back his money
when he may need it for his own use.
• Hence, a payment to compensate this sorts of inconvenience may
be charged by lender ,then interest rate will be higher .
4) Payment for management service
• A lender of capital fund has to spend money and energy in the
management of credit and hence, gross interest rate also include
payment for management expense .
5) Compensation for change in the value of money (inflation
rate )
• When price are rising ,the purchasing power of money will
declines over a period of time ,and the creditor losses ,to avoid
such loss ,a high rate of interest demanded by the lender.
164
• Gross interest rate =Net interest +Payment of risk +Payment
of management service +Compensations for changing the
value of money .
Example :Calculate gross interest rate ?
• Given a Rural Saving and Credit Cooperatives having net
payment for the use of capital is 5%, management expense 1%
, inflation rate 1% ,compensation of risk 2% and compensation
of inconveniency 3%
Ans . Gross interest rate is 12 percent .
Note :Net interest rate is the same every where ,but gross
interest rate is different from place to place ,case to case and
different time and for different individual .
• Because ,different type of borrower, the money market is not
homogenous ,duration of loan is varies, duration of supply
condition of capital fund are different in different courtiers .
12/09/19 165
2.4.2Theory of interest rate
•Different theories have been put forward regarding interest. However,
all these numerous theories can be grouped under the two headings:
i.Theories which explain why interest is paid;
ii.Theories which explain how the rate of interest is determined.
I. Based on why interest is paid ;
1.Productivity Theory: It says interest is paid on capital because
capital is productive.
•The borrower can get additional income from borrowed capital and in
easily afford to pay interest.
Criticism
• If capital were free, no interest will be paid in spite of its
productivity.
•Hence, it is scarcity rather than productivity which explains interest.
166
2. Abstinence or Waiting Theory:- The lender of capital has to be compensated
for abstinence from consumption or for not immediately using his own
capital. Criticism
• But some people will wait and save even, if there is no interest. Hence this
theory does not explore interest satisfactorily.
4. Time Preference Theory:- Fisher’s theory says that interest is the price for
time preference.
• This time preference depends on the size of a man’s income, the distribution
of income over time, the degree of certainty regarding its enjoyment in the
future and the temperament(human behavior) and character of the individual.
12/09/19 167
5. Liquidity Preference Theory:
•According to Keynes, who propounded this theory, interest is not a
reward for waiting, nor is it a payment for time preference, but it is
a reward for parting with liquidity i.e Speculative motive .
•This theory not only explains why interest is paid; it also explains how
the rate of interest is determined.
•All these theories we have been discussing since answers the question
of why interest is paid.
168
1. Classical or Real Theory
• Interest is determined by the demand for and supply of
capital.
• Interest in real term is the reward for productive use of
capital .
A) Demand for capital
• It comes from entrepreneur who wish to invest in capital good
industry .
• It is demand for savings i.e investment .
• The marginal productivity curve of capital ,thus determine the
demand curve for capital .
• While deciding about an investment , the entrepreneur, however
,compare, the marginal productivity of capital with the
prevailing market rate of interest .
• i.e MPK=r .
12/09/19 169
Figure 2.1 The investment function
I=f(r)=dI/dr <0, where, I amount of investment and r is rate of interest .
•Investment function is down ward sloping curve .
12/09/19 170
• (r) is rate of interest ,(q) is investment volume, when r is
falling from r1to r2 ,investment volume rise from q1 to q2, it
follow that the investment demand curve is down ward.
B) Supply of capital
• Saving is the source of capital formation .
• It depends on the availably of saving in the economy .
• Saving emerge from the desire and capacity to save ,to some
classical economists like Sinor, abstinence from
consumption is essential act of saving .
• For fisher, time preference is the basic consideration of the
people who save.
• In both case the rate of interest play an important role in the
determination of saving .
12/09/19 171
• For classical economists saving is a direct function of
interest rate.
172
F
12/09/19 173
Mathematical Example
Given the saving and investment function :
S=-8+7r
I=20-7r
A)Determine the equilibrium level of interest rate ?
Solution ;
At equilibrium
S=I
= -8+7r=20-7r
= -8-20=-7r-7r
= -28=-14r
= r*=2//
12/09/19 174
• Indeed ,the demand for capital is influenced by the productivity of
capital ,and the supply of capital.
• In turn ,saving are conditioned by the thrift habit of the commodity and
productivity in the economy ,are the fundamental determinates of the
rate of interest .
Criticism
1. Interest is not the reward for saving according to Keynes , one can get
interest by lending money which has been saved but has been inherited
from ones forefather .
• If a man hoards his saving in cash ,he earns no interest.
• The amount of savings depends upon not only interest rate but also the
level of income. 175
2) Keynes’s further maintains that the classical theory of
interest rate is indeterminate and confounding .
r=f(S,I), however ,
12/09/19 176
3) The classical theory looks upon money merely as a medium of
exchange.
•It does not take into account the role of money as a store of value
.
•It assume that income is not spent on consumption should
necessary be diverted to investment; it ignore the possibility of
saving being hoarded .
•This factor makes the classical theory unrealistic and inapplicable
in a dynamic economy
•It fail to integrate monetary theory in to general body of
economic theory .
4) According to classicist, the rate of interest is an equilibrating
factor between saving and investment .
• In the view of Keynes, the rate of interest is not the price which
brings equilibrium of the demand for resource to invest with the
readiness to ascertain the present consumption . 177
• It is the price which equilibrates the desire to hold wealth in the form
cash with the availability of quantity of each .
5. Keynes point out that equality between saving and investment was
brought about by changes in the level of income and not by the rate of
interest as a asserted by the classical economists .
12/09/19 178
2) Loanable funds theory of interest rate (Neo -classical theory of interest
rate )
•Professor Knut wicksell explain the loanable fund theory .
•It is attempt to improve upon the classical theory of interest rate .
•According to this theory, the rate of interest is the price that equate the
demand for and supply of loanable fund .i.e
•Interest as determined by demand for and supply of loan able funds.
•Loanable fund are the sums of money supplied and demand at any time in
the money market.
•The Total supply of loanable fund, saving(S) plus new money supply or bank
credit or money dishoarded (M).
TSSLF= S+M
•The Total demand side of loanable fund, demand for investment(I) or
investment demand for saving plus the demand for hoarding money(H) or
inactive cash balance :
DDLF= I+H
179
• Loanable fund is the function of four variables:
r=f(I,S,M,H)
• The determination of interest rate can be seen as follows :
180
• S+M is Total supply of loan able Fund at different interest rate, is
up ward sloping ,indicating the highest rate of interest, the highest
the supply of loan able funds and vice versa .
• H+I is Total demand for loan able fund at different interest rate,
its slope is down ward sloping ,because the lower the rate of
interest ,the higher is the demand for loan able funds and vice versa.
• At point E the two curve intersect each other ,which indicates the
level of the market rate of interest (OR*) .
12/09/19 181
• The classical rate of interest would be OR1.
• Thus the loan able fund theory shows that money no longer play
neutral or passive role .
• Its inclusion on the supply side bringing the rate of interest down
to OR*from OR1 in real term .
• Loan able fund theory recognize the dynamic and active role of
money .
12/09/19 182
Figure 2: Summery of Determination of interest rate under loanable fund
theory.
12/09/19 183
Example :Given the loanable fund demand and supply function as follows :
S=-8+14r , I=20-70r , money dishoarded(M)=-40+20r and money horded
(H)=20-10r Birr
A)Determine the equilibrium level of interest rate ?
Solution :
At equilibrium
S+M=I+H
= -8+14r -40+20r=20-70r+20-10r
=-48+34r=40-80r
= -48-40=-80r -34r
= -88 = -114r
=r*=0.772//
12/09/19 184
Criticism
•Hansen criticizes, that the rate of interest is not known unless the
level of income is not known since TSSLF varies with income
level Robertson, but the level of income can not be known unless
the rate of interest is not known hence ,this theory is
indeterminate .
•The supply of loanable fund some time increase by a release of
cash balance or decrease by the absorption of various saving in to
cash balance .
•This give the impression that the cash balance of the community
can be increased or deceased .
•This is not actually the case. i.e fixed and necessarily equal to
the total supply of loanable funds and the cash balance increase
or decease actually results only change in the velocity of
loanable funds .
12/09/19 185
• It is illogical to combine factors like saving and investment
with monetary factor bank credit and liquidity preference .
• The theory is an exaggeration of the functional relationship
between between the rate of interest and saving .
• Critics argued that people usually save not for the sake interest
rate but out of precautionary motives ,where propensity to
save is interest inelastic.
• The were wrongly considered interest rate purely as a real
phenomena.
12/09/19 186
3. Keynes liquidity preference theory
•Interest rate is regarded by Keynes as purely monetary
phenomena in the sense that, the rate of interest is determined
by the interaction of the demand for and supply of money .
•Interest rate is a reward paid for parting with liquidity, i.e
giving up the cash balance held .
•The demand for money is the demand for liquidity preference
as coined by Keynes .
•Liquidity preference is the preference of the people to hold
wealth in the form of liquid cash rather than other non liquid for
like bond, security ,bill of exchange etc .
•Liquidity preference is the desired to hold cash.
12/09/19 187
• According to Keynes ,there are three motives behind the desire of
the people to hold liquid cash ;
12/09/19 189
• The two determents of the rate of interest are ;
b) Idle cash balance consists of demand for money for speculative motive
interest elastic and income determining is represented by L2 (r) .
• Speculative demand for money is decreasing function of the rate of
interest rate to the matter of expectations about a safe future rate of
interest .
• The lower interest rate ,the higher speculative demand for money.
• In the liquidity function ,however ,it is postulated by Keynes that
demand for money is positively correlated with income .
191
• An increase the level of incomes implies a rise in the demand for
money vice versa . On the other hand , an increase in interest rate
implies a fall in demand for money and vice versa
• Total demand for money represented by: Lp=L1+L2
12/09/19 192
2) The total supply of money: The total quantity of money in the
country for all purpose at any time .
•Though the supply of money is a function of interest rate to a degree,
yet it is considered to be fixed by the monetary authority i.e the
supply curve for money supply is taken as perfectly inelastic .
•Total supply of money represented by: M=M1+M2, Where
M1 is the quantity of money held by people for transaction and
precautionary motive or active or circulating money .
M2 is the quantity of money held for speculative purpose idle or
passive money .
12/09/19 193
• According to the liquidity preference theory ,the equilibrium
rate of interest is determined by the interaction between
liquidity preference (demand for money) and the supply of
money .
• M1=L1(y) liquidity function related to transactional and
precautionary demand .
• M2=L2(r) liquidity function related to speculative demand .
The complete liquidity function: M=M1+M2 =L1(y) +L2(r)
=M=Lp=(-r,+y)
M
197
• It is unrealistic to have independent interest rate from demand
for investment fund.
• It ignore the long run period and only focus on the short run.
but, capital investment is along run interest which is really
significant .
4) Neo- Keynesian (Modern ) theory of interest rate
• This theory is developed by Neo keynesian economists
like ,Hicks ,Lerner and Hansen etc.
• It provide determinate theory of interest rate.
• It combines monetary and real factors to seek an explanation of
the determinants of the rate of interest.
• It is identified that four factors are determining the rate of
interest .
12/09/19 198
1. The investment demand schedule
To draw graphically ;
IS: denotes the equilibrium in the real sector, showing various combinations of the
level of income (y) and interest rate (r) at which there is equilibrium aggregate
• It gives different level of income at which the saving and investments are equal .
12/09/19 200
IS curve:
r1
r
2
12/09/19 201
• LM curve is derived from the Keynesian liquidity preference
theory.
• It shows all combination of interest rates and level of income at
which the demand for and supply of money are equal i.e ;
• It shows the combination of interest rates and the level of
income where the demand for money and the supply of money
are equal.
The LM cure M(supply
: L1=>L2 =>Y2>Y1
of money)
r2
12/09/19 202
IS
12/09/19 203
• Given the LM curve , when the IS curve shifts to the
right ,income increase and along with interest rate will
increase .
• Given the IS curve ,when the LM curve shifts to the
right ,income rise along with interest rate falling .
12/09/19 204
Example:
1.Given the following data : C = 200 + 0.75Y and I =
500 – 5r in the good market and L1 = 0.25Y and L2
= 200 – 4r and M is 800 Birr in the money market .
Then
A)Determine the equation of IS Curve ?
B)Determine the equation of the LM curve?
C)Determine the equilibrium level of interest rate ?
D)Show graphically the determination of equilibrium
level of interest rate ?
Solution
12/09/19 205
12/09/19 206
12/09/19 207
C) From A and B ,we found that
The IS equations :Y=2,800- 20 r
The LM equation Y =2,400 +26 r
With the Neo-kensian theory of interest rate is determined as
follows :
LM=IS
2,800 -20r =2,400 +16 r
2,800-2,400 =16r+20r
400=36r
r* =11.11 // and Y*=2578.
12/09/19 208
The determination of equilibrium level of interest rate
graphically
12/09/19 209
Criticisms
It is a static theory that explains the short run behavior of the
economy .
Interest rate is not flexible, if the interest rate happen to be rigid
because adjustment mechanism will not takes place .
Highly artificial because real sector and monetary sectors are so
interrelated and interdependent that the act and react each other .
Close model which did not take in to account the effect of
international trade .
Price level exogenous variable in this model .This is un realistic
because price change plays an important role in the determination
of income and interest rate in the economy .
12/09/19 210
Factors determining the term structure of interest rate
1.Risk preference
•Long term security price are sensitive to change in interest rates because the
chance to default are higher on long term security as compared to short tem
securities .
•There for lenders ,to lend for short term ,if short term and long term security
have identical yields.
2. Supply and demand condition for credit
•When the supply of short term security fall and that of long term security
rises, the short term interest rate comes down and the long term interest rate is
push up .The yield curve will be up ward sloping and vice versa .
•If the demand for security, is more in the short run market and the supply is
more in the long run market ,this will leads to high short term and low long
term interest rates ,and the yield curve will be down ward sloping. The
opposite supply –demand condition will leads an upward sloping yields
curve .
12/09/19 211
3. Expectation and uncertainty
• The expectation of the rise in the long term interest rate explains
that the short term interest rate remains much below the long term
interest rate remains much below the long term interest rate for any
length of time .
• This produces an upward sloping yield curve.
• Certain risks and uncertainties may leads to the same results.
• If people expects war ,social disturbance ,political up
heaves ,uncertainty ,inflationary pressure etc. They will not
purchase long term security except at a lower price or long current
yield .
12/09/19 212
Chapter review Questions
1.What is a money market and capital market ?
3.Discuses the financial institutions and instruments in money and capital market ?
6.Distinguish between money market and capital market .How are they
interrelated ?
7.Critically discuss the classical ,loanable fund ,Keynesian and modern theory of
interest rate as an explanation of interest rate ?
12/09/19 213
Chapter 3: The demand for Money and other assets (9hrs)
3.1. Quantity theory of money
3.2. Liquidity preference theory
3.3. Post Keynesians developments in monetary theory
3.4. Friedman’s modern quantity theory of money
3.5. Empirical evidence on demand for money
12/09/19 214
Chapter 3:The demand for Money and other assets theories of
money
• The demand for money is not the same us the demand
for commodity.
• The demand for commodity satisfy the human wants
directly.
• According to classical view money is demanded by the
people not for its own sake ,but as a medium of
exchange .
• The demand for money comes from the public.
12/09/19 215
• The demand for money is the desire of the people to
hold financial assets in the form of money.
• Classical believed that the demand for money arises
from the demand for goods and services i.e the
demand for money depends up on the supply of
goods and services available.
• Hence, money do not has direct utility to the holders
but satisfy human wants indirectly.
12/09/19 216
3 .1 Quantity theory of money
•It is originated by Davenzath –the Italian writer .
•David hume was the one who was make it accepted in the classical thinking.
•It is the oldest and has been the most influential theory to explain the determination
of value at any one time and the variation of this value over period of time .
•Price are proportional to the plenty of money supply.
Let us see the two classical approaches in the quantity theory of money :
1)Transaction Balance version (Fisherian approach )
•According to Irving fisher in 1911 ,the demand for money relates to the amount of
money people have to hold to under take a given volume of transaction over a
given period of time .
•Thus the demand for money is determined by three objective factors
A)The volume of transactions (T)
B)The average price level per unit of transaction (P)
C)The average velocity of circulation of money (V).
Velocity of money is an average number of times per year that a birr is spent in
purchasing goods and services.
12/09/19 217
Assumptions
1)Fisher viewed velocity as constant in the short run. This is because he felt
that velocity is affected by institutions and technology that change slowly
over time.
•V are assumed to be constant and are independent of change in M , because
depend upon outside factors such as payment of individuals and commercial
custom ,density of development of transportation .
2) Fisher, like all classical economists believed that aggregate output at full-
employment level in the short run i.e ,
•T is independent of change in other factors like M and V rather ; T depends
upon natural resource, technological development and population etc which
are out side the equation .
•The supply of money (M) is exogenously determined constant .
•P is passive variable in the equation of exchange .
•The demand for money is proportion to the value of transactions.
•Changes in money supply affect only the price level i.e
•Movement in the price level results solely from change in the quantity of
money.
12/09/19 218
• Fisher argued that all other things remaining constant ,the quantity of money
circulating increase (M), the price level(p) also increase in direct proportion and
vice versa.
• He provide formalistic expression to the transaction approach in his equation of
exchange also known as cash transaction equation :
MV=PT where ;M=stock of money (Quantity of money ) or money supply
V =Average velocity of circulation
P =Average price level
T=Volume of transactions i.e the total amount of goods and services charged for
money.
• By algebraically manipulation in the above equation ,The fisher demand for
money (Md) function is derived as follows :
• When the money market is in equilibrium money supply (Ms) are equal to money
demand (Md) thus ,
Md=PT/V
Example1: Assume V as 10 if ,in a year ,T is 10,000 units and p is 20 per unit .
A) Calculate money demand (Md)?
Solution :
Md=PT/V=20x10,000/10 =Birr 20,000// 219
We can also derive V=PT/M
Solution :
V= PT/M =5 /2
V= 2 .5, which means that the average Birr is spent 2.5 times in
purchasing final goods and services per year . —
12/09/19 220
Concussion
• T and V remaining constant ,in the short period ,the demand for
money varies with the change in price level .
• According to fisher ,changes in the price level are directly
proportional to the change in money supply (Ms) , in the short
period .
• Fisher consider, the demand for money from the view of the
velocity of money (V) rather than the motives for holding money
• Further , in the fisherian money demand function let 1/v equal to
K then we have
• M=KPT here k stand for constant , assuming v being a constant
factors .Thus , M=KPT,
221
• The level of transactions generated by a fixed level of PT
determines the quantity of Md but the demand for money is not
affected by interest rates.
Example 1: Suppose PT is birr 1,000 and the velocity is 5 ,then
A)Calculate the demand for money ?
B) If PT increase to birr 1,200, then estimate the demand for
money ?
Solution :
A)Md=kPT= 0.20 x Birr1,000 =Birr 200 .
B) Md=kPT= 0.20 x Birr1,200 increase to birr 240 .
• Thus ,the demand for money is directly related to the spending
involve in the volume of transaction .
12/09/19 222
The fisherian demand for money function
PT
Figure 3.1.fisherian demand for money and value of transaction
• The slope of Md curve is K or 1/v . since k is assumed to be
constant the Md curve is a straight linear .
• Its slopes outward indicating a direct proportion relation ship
between the demand for money with the value of transaction
(PT). In fisherian sense ,the demand for money depends on the
institutionally determined needs .
223
• The relation ship between quantity of money supply
and ,price level and value of money .
Figure 3.2 The relation ship between piece and quantity of money
12/09/19 224
• This approach has two serious problems ;
12/09/19 225
2) The measurements of the general price level (P)
• There is no comprehensive price index to measure all
transactions of goods and services and capital assets .
• Price index may be retail price ,whole sale price ,or the
manufactures price and there fore P used in the equation does
not represents any particular price and there is no price
comprehensive to all and the problem in this equation in which
price to take .
12/09/19 226
Criticism : The demand for money is defined objectively, in
mechanical sense only, i.e It is just mathematical truism i.e it
does not show the cause and effect relation ship between price
and quantity of money .
• No attention is paid to motives behind the demand for money .
• It assumes that people demand money not for saving but every
thing they get will be spendable which not true in real sense .
• He consider money from the view of the velocity of money
rather than the motive of holding money .
• Other things are not constant or equal in real life as M change
and ,as price changes ,total volume of transaction changes .
12/09/19 227
• The velocity of money (V) may not be a constant factor i.e V may vary with
the volume of trade (T) ,price level (P), volume of money ,population
density ,development of transport and payment habit of individuals .
228
• The ultimate determinates of the value of money is lie
behind the equation of exchange and not in it . Example M
determined by monetary base ,the community choice to hold
cash or cheques as a means of payment, cash reserve
ratio ,level of monetization and government budgetary
policy .
• It ignored the store of value function of money .
229
• Neglect the real balance effect
12/09/19 230
B) The cash Balance version (Cambridge view or approach ) demand for
money
•Cambridge economists Marshall, A.C Pigous, Robertson and Keynes formulated
the cash balances approach .
•Money is the most liquid form of wealth so it serve as an excellent store of value.
231
• This view argued that the total demand for money or cash balance is the
proportion of nominal national income .
• The Cambridge equations show that given the supply of money at a point of time is
constants and exogenously determined by the central bank and hence , the value of
money is determined by the demand for cash balances.
• The demand for money induced by transactions and precautionary motive
constitutes a certain proportion of its annual real national income which is the
community desires to hold in the form of money.
• Symbolically; The Cambridge demand for money function (Marshallian equation);
Md=kpy . Where; Md is money demand and k is the proportionality factor or the cash
balance the people wish to hold i.e the proportion or fraction of national income
that people desire to keep in the form of nominal money balance or cash balances.
• py is the nominal national income(p is price of final goods and y is real income or
final goods ).
232
• As the nominal income remaining constant ,the change in the
proportionality factors will change the demand for money i.e as the
proportionality factor (k) increase ,the demand for money also increase
and vice versa .
• Under this theory a money demand function is an equation that shows
what determines the quantity of real money balances people wish to hold.
A simple money demand function is :
• M=kPY
12/09/19 234
Example:- Assume that the nominal national income is birr 1,000 and the proportionality
factor is 10% .Then ,
Solution:Md=kpy
B) As the proportionality factor increases by 20%,while the nominal national income remains
constant ,then the demand for money will be : Md=0.20 X1,000 =200birr //.
• This school also mentioned a passing mark about the transaction and precautionary
motive behind the holding of cash balance by the people.
Example 2:Suppose the Md of a hypothetical economy is 5000 Birr and the money income is
20, 000 Birr. What will be the value of K?
• Solution:
Given: Md=5000 Y= 20,000 Required: K
K= Md/Y = 5000/20,000 = 1/4
• That is, the public likes to hold one fourth of its annual income in the form of money.
12/09/19 235
Superiority of cash balance over transactional
approach
• The cash balances approach is superior to the
transactions approach because it altogether discards
the concept of the velocity of circulation of money
which 'obscures/unclear the motives and decisions of
people behind it.
12/09/19 236
Criticism of cash balance approach
•Narrow view , they are dealing the purchasing power of money in terms of
consumption good only .
•Omission of crucial variable which determine K like business integration
and price level etc.
•Circular reasoning as the value of money is determined by cash balance held
by the community(K) and at the same time the price and value of money
determine the amount of cash holding (K) .
•Ignore the role of interest rate i.e the effect of rate of interest on price .
•Un realistic assumption of K and Y are not constant or not given .
•Fails to explain dynamic behavior of price .
•Fail to explain the trade cycle phenomena i.e why economic peak followed
by economic depression.
•Fails to examine the degree of impact of change in money supply on output
and price.
•Ignore the significant of real factors that is the real force which enforce the
change in price level such as income ,saving and investment are roots for
change in demand .
12/09/19 237
Similarity of the two approach
• The same conclusion there is direct and proportional
relationship between quantity of money and price
and inverse relationship between quantity of money
and value of money .
• Similar equation :
• Fisher: exchange equation MV=PT
• Robert son: Cash balance equation (M)=kpy
M/p=kY
M=kYP let k=1/v
MV=PY
12/09/19 238
Difference
1)Function of money
•Fisherian approach focus on medium of exchange .
•Cambrige approach focus on the store of value .
2) Flow and stock
•Fisherian approach considered money as a flow concept(related to a period of time ) .
•Cambrige approach considered money as stock concept(a point in time ) .
3) V and K different the meaning given to V and K are different
•Fisherian approach V is the rate of spending
•In Rober son K is cash balance which people wish to hold .
4) Nature of price level
•In fisherian p refers to is the average price level .
•In Cambridge p is the price of final or consumer goods.
5) Nature of T
•In fisherian T refers to the total amount of goods and services exchanged for money .
•In Cambridge T(Y) refers to the final or consumer goods exchanged for money.
12/09/19 239
6) Emphasize on supply and demand for money
•Fishers approach emphasizes the supply side of money .
•The Cambridge emphasize on the demand side of money .
7) Different in nature
•Fisher is mechanistic because it doe not explain how changes in
the V being about the change in p .
•Cambridge version was realistic because,itconsidered
psychological factors which influence k.
12/09/19 240
3.2. Liquidity preference theory of demand for money (the
Keynesian cash balance approach )
• The modern concept(restatement of the quantity theory) of
demand for money associated with the Keynesians analysis of
demand for money .
• It is an extension of Cambridge theory of demand for money
and stresses on asset role or store of value functions of money .
• Demand for money is determined by what people want to hold
(the amount of money balances they want to hold)rather than
actual money balance held by the people(fisher view) .
• The demand for money means demand for money to hold cash
balances.
• Money is not just meant for spending. It can be held as a form of
wealth in exchange, all the time .
12/09/19 241
• Keynes ,in short ,viewed , the change in general price level do
not affect quantity of money(M)directly but they do so
indirectly through the rate of interest, investment,
employment ,income and output .
• Thus ,money being the most liquid assets ,can serve as an
efficient store of value ;so its demanded for its own sake.
• According to keynes ,the quantity theory of money would be
valid, if the elasticity money price is unitary .
em=dP/dM X M/P
• How ever, no such direct relation ship could exist between the
quantity of money and the price level, except in a full
employment phenomena.
• So long as there is unemployment ,employment will change in
the same proportion as the quantity of money .
12/09/19 242
• In this sense, the demand for money is the inverse of the
velocity of circulation .
• The desire of money described by Keynes as liquidity
preference .
• i.e demand for money is the demand for liquidity or liquidity
preference .
• Keynes distinguished three subjective motives which induce
people to hold money balance .
1. Transactional motives
2. Precautionary motives
3. Speculative motive
12/09/19 243
• Corresponding the above motives ,Keynes separated the
demand for money in three parts ;
1) The transaction demand for money
2) The precautionary demand for money
3) The speculative demand for money
• The total demand for money, implies total cash balances.
• Total cash balance can be classified in to two parts as the
active cash balance and idle cash balance .
1) Active cash balance(L1):It consists of the demand for money
held under transactional motive and precautionary motive .
2) Ideal cash balance(L2): It consists of speculative demand for
money .
12/09/19 244
1. Transactional demand for money
• This is related with the primary function of money as a
medium of exchange .
• Individuals do not receives money income as frequently as
they make payments .
• Thus when income is received at a discrete interval of
time ,but is paid out more or less continuously against the
exchange of goods and services, it is inevitable that people
should need a certain stock of money all the time in order to
carry out their transaction.
• Transaction motive refers to the demand for money for
bridging the gap between periodic receipt and payment .
• Keynes define the transaction demand for money as the
need of cash for the current transaction of a person or
business expenditure .
• Transaction demand for money has two motives; 245
A. The income motive :-It refers to the holding of money balance to
facilitate their day to day purchase of consumption goods .
• The consumer demand for money depends upon the following
factors ;
1. The level of income(high income =high demand for transaction
purpose )
2. The price level (price rise=demand for transaction raise )
3. The spending habits of the people(spending high =demand for
money high)
4. The time interval (time interval increase =increase demand for
money).
B. Business motive
• It refers to the transactions motive to the entrepreneur class, or
business community.
• Demand for money balance held under this motive depends up on
business turn over of the firm . 246
• Business turn over high leads to high demand for money .
Thus the amount of money balance held under transactional
motive will depends on the time and size of the firm income
and the turn over of the business positively.
• Transaction demand for money Lt is income determined and
interest inelastic and relatively stable phenomenon i.e Lt (y)
.Hence, as national income(y) increase ,the transaction
demand for money will increase and vice versa.
2) Precautionary demand for money
• People generally desired to hold some additional money
balance against unforeseen contingencies .
• This demand mainly depends on the uncertainty of future
receipts and expenditure .
• It is sensitive to the anticipation of the level of income
hence ,it is income determined and is relatively stable.
12/09/19 247
• As income increase ,the cash balance held for precautionary
purpose will also increases.
Lp=f(y)
L1=Lt+Lp=L1=f(y)
L1=Lt+Lp
Income
12/09/19 250
Example : A bond carry a 4 % rate of interest ,gets an annual
return (R) of birr 4 .
A)Find the current value of bond ?
B) When the market rate of interest is fall to 2 % what is the
effect on the current value of bond ?
Solution :
A) The current value of bond=Annual return/current market
interest rate=R/r =>V= 4birr/0.04=100 birr //
B) V=R/r 4birr/0.02 =Birr 200 //
• According to Keynes, it is expectations about changes in
bond price or in the current market rate of interest rate
that determine the speculative demand for money .
12/09/19 251
• When people expect interest rate rise ,and the price of fixed
income yielding assets like bonds to fall , more balance will be held
in cash , then the idle cash balance will invested in the future in
such instruments that attracts higher income than investing on such
instruments with lower prevailing interest rate and vice versa i.e at
a very high rate of interest the speculative demand for money is
zero and people invest their cash in bonds .
• Keynes had critical rate of interest rate or normal rate of interest
(rc) ,
If the current rate of interest (r) is above rc=>,business expected to
fall and bond price rise hence ,buy bond to sell them in the
future when their price rise in order to gain their by and their by
demand for money would fall .
• It is symbolically represented by L2=f(r) .
• Speculative demand for money is a decreasing function of interest
rate.
12/09/19 252
Let us see graphically
12/09/19 257
• Thus, when the expected rate of interest is higher than the current rate of
interest (re > rc), the demand for money for speculative motive will rise.
• Similarly, if people feel the rate of interest is going to fall (or bond prices
going to rise), they will reduce the demand for money meant for
speculative purpose.
• So long as the Net yield from bond is greater than zero, the individual
will hold only bonds.
• If the Net yield is exactly zero, the individual will be indifferent
between bonds and money. The critical value of the current will be the
interest rate, at which the net yield is zero. This can be solved in
following way: Net yield from bond: r�𝑐 + 𝑔 = 0 . But G is expected gain + 𝑔 = 0 . But G is expected gain = 0 . But G is expected gain
or loss ,rc is current rate of interest .
12/09/19 258
Example : Assume an investor want invest to one birr on bonds but the
current rate of interest (rc) is 0.02 and the expected rate of interest (re) is
0.04 . Know ;
A) Calculate the expected capital gain or loss (G)?
Solution: It can be computed by subtracting the current investment of
one birr from the ratio of current rate of interest to the expected rate of
interest, or G = rc/ re-l = 0.02/0.04-1 = -0.5 birr(net loss).
Interpretation : The market value of one birr invested today in a bond
yielding 0.02 per year would be expected to decline to 0.5 birr and the
bond holder would suffer a potential capital loss equal to one-half the
value of the holding of bond .
B)Net yield from investing on bond ?
Solution :
Net yield on bonds= rc+ G if it is gain , if loss make it minus ,
Net yield from investing on bonds : rc-G if it is loss . so , net yield from
investing on bonds will be =0.02-0.50
=-0.48 an investor hold money than investing on bond .
259
Total demand for money(LP) : L1+L2
LP= L1(y) +L2(r)
Lp=(r,y)
• The community over all demand for money depends up on the
level of national income and the rate of interest rate .
Lp=L1+L2
12/09/19 260
• M2=L2(r) Thus; M=M1+M2
• LP(M)=L1(Y) + L2(r)
• Thus, the total demand for money balance can be
written as: M=L(Y , r)
• Here, the amount of cash balances which the
public desires to hold varies directly with the level
of income and inversely with interest rates.
• In other words, Keynes’s conclusion is that the
demand for money is related not only to income
but also to interest rates.
• This is a major departure from Fisher’s view of
money demand in which interest rates can have no
effect for the demand for money but it is less of a
departure from the Cambridge approach which
didn’t rule out possible effects of interest rate.
12/09/19 261
Criticism of Keynesian theory of demand for money
1. It is unscientific to separate artificially the demand for money in
to three parts as it has been done by Keynes for the reason the
people do not keep with them three separate purses (money to
spend) in order to use money for three different motives.
2. The transactions demand, precautionary demand and speculative
demand for money all depend to some extent on both the level of
income and the rate of interest. Consequently, he should consider
only a single unified demand function, and not two separate
demand functions for money,which depends on the level of income,
rate of interest and the wealth variables.
3. Since the speculative demand for money depends on the difference
between the current interest rate and the normal interest rate, it
would disappear if the difference between these two interest
rates disappeared and the difference would disappear if the
current interest rate remained constant for a long time.
12/09/19 262
• In other words, the critics have argued that any rate of interest, no
matter how low, will tend to be the normal interest rate, if it
prevailed long enough causing elimination of the expectations of
capital loss and consequently disappearance of the speculative
demand for money.
4. Empirically, it has been found that individuals, do not hold all
their wealth either in the form of bonds or money but in some
composite form made up of the bonds and money.
5. He made his analysis of liquidity preference based on expectation
concerning the future rate of interest, ignore un certainty .
• The well known scholar that criticized the Keynesian theory of
money of demand for money are William Baumol, James
Tobin, and Milton Friedman .
• The liquidity trap is a logical impossibility since not everyone
can switch from bonds to money someone must hold the existing
stock of bond.
12/09/19 263
• In a liquidity trap, therefore, any increase in the money
supply has no impact on the interest rate and hence no
impact on aggregate demand.
• A liquidity trap, then, implies the existence of a
minimum rate of interest for the economy a rate that is
so low that everyone thinks the next interest rate move
must be up.
• Therefore, everyone believes that bond prices will fall
and no one wishes to hold bonds.
• Everyone switches from bonds to money; but this must
involve a fallacy of composition because it is not
possible for everyone to hold money rather than bonds.
Someone must hold the existing stock of bonds.
12/09/19 264
• Gowland (1991) argues further that the bond market will always
be in equilibrium (because of low transactions costs and zero
storage costs) and that, in the aggregate, it will not be possible for
investors to exchange bonds for money.
• A general expectation that interest rates will fall causes an
increased demand for bonds, a rise in bond prices and a fall in
interest rates but, at the end of the process, the same quantity of
bonds is held as before.
• Thus, the theory of the speculative demand for money explains
who holds money not the quantity of money held. However, this
problem also disappears if we assume an uncertain world in
which disequilibrium is the normal state of affairs.
• Then, we could imagine a situation in which all bondholders
were attempting to sell but could not find buyers.
12/09/19 265
• In any case, the liquidity trap represents the extreme
theoretical position of the model rather than being a
position likely to be reached by any economy.
• The last criticism concerns the assumption of
regressive expectations and the lack of explanation of
how each agent forms his view of the normal rate of
interest.
• In practice, many examples can be found in markets
of extrapolative expectations where a change in price
causes people to believe that the price will continue to
move in the same direction.
• Thus, the assumption of regressive expectations may
seem unreasonable.
12/09/19 266
3.3 Post Keynesians developments in monetary theory
3.3.1 Baumol’s inventory theoretical approach (Interest elasticity of
transaction demand for money ) (1952).
• According to Baumol people holds money for convenience and
capability of its being easily used for transaction of goods
and services keeping them in saving deposit which are quit safe
and earns some interest as well .
• Prof.William Baumol explains or analyze the transaction
demand for money from the viewpoint of the inventory
control or inventory management(capital theory) .
• As businessmen keep inventories of goods and materials to
facilitate transactions or exchange in the context of changes
in demand for them, Baumol asserts that individuals also hold
inventory of money because this facilitates transactions (i.e.
purchases) of goods and services.
12/09/19 267
• Individuals also incur cost when they hold inventories of money for
transactions purposes .
• In view of the cost incurred on holding inventories of goods there is
need for keeping optimal inventory of goods to reduce cost.
• Similarly, individuals have to keep optimum inventory of money for
transaction purposes.
Assumptions
• An individual or a firm receives income payment (y) once per time
period say per month.
• This agent is assumed to spread out his purchased over time ,that is
not at a time .
• There are only two assets cash and bonds and cash earns a nominal
return of zero, bonds earn an interest rate .
• Every time an individual buys or sells bonds to raise cash, he incurs at a
fixed brokerage fee.
12/09/19 268
• The whole of his /her receipt are spent at a constant rate over the
period.
• The firm obtains money in order to carry out the transaction by
selling the bonds .
• The transaction between money and bonds are transparent and
occur in a steady stream say one birr nominal worth of transaction
takes place .
• The bond market is perfect where there is easy conversation of
bonds into cash and vice versa .
• There is a fixed cost in exchanging bond for cash and vise versa .
• A firm has knowledge about the size of its total future transactions.
• The holding of cash involves interest cost and non-interest rate
cost .
• The interest cost is constant over the year and the non–interest
costs such as brokerage fee, mailing expense etc are also fixed over
the year . 269
• He pointed out that the transaction demand for money is interest
elastic .
• He also showed that the relationship between, transactional demand
for money and income is neither linear nor proportional .
• Cash balance held by the people, as income and expenditure do not
takes place simultaneously .
• But it is expensive to have large amount of money in the form of
cash balances. That money could otherwise be used profitably
elsewhere , for example in bond .
• When a firm or an individual holds money for transaction purpose, it
incurs interest cost and non interest cost or conversation cost .
12/09/19
1) Conversion cost (non interest cost)(brokerage cost ) i.e the cost of
converting of bond in to money.
• Non interest costs are mailing expenses(postal charge) or brokerage
fee, bookkeeping expense and so on for converting cash for bond .
2) Foregone interest(interest cost)
• The interest cost is an opportunity cost i.e when a firm hold cash for
transaction purpose, it forgoes interest income .
• An individual would always try to keep minimum transaction balance
in order to earn maximum interest income .
• So the interest rate on bond is high ,the lesser the transaction
demand for money.
• He assumes that an individual or a firm has an optimal inventory of
money for transaction purposes .
• In this situation, money balance held to make expenditure are
considered as a kind of inventory and the objective of the individual
is to minimize the cost associated with the inventory .
271
• Let r be a rate of interest which is assumed to be constant over a year .
• b is the brokerage cost which is also assumed to be fixed .
• Assume that at the beginning of the year Y is the income of the
firm/individual which equal to the real value of transaction performed by
it .
• K is the size of each cash withdrawal at interval when the bonds are sold
or the average amount of the cash he withdraws each time the
individual goes to the bank .
• Thus Y/K is the number of withdrawal that occur over the year(the
number of times he goes to the bank to withdraw cash).
• b(Y/K) is the costs of brokerage fee during a year since , the average
cash withdrawal are K/2, the interest cost of holding cash balance is
r(K/2) when, the withdrawal are made twice in a year.
• The total cost of making transaction or Total cost inventory of money :
(C)=r(K/2)+b(Y/K) ,
• The optimal value of K( the number of transactions) that maximizes the net
return. can be found by minimizing the total inventory cost (C): dC/dk
=0
12/09/19 272
This is known as square root rule .The following points become clear
from the above formula:
• If the brokerage fee(b) increases, the optimal cash balance will
increase ,because the firm will invest on bonds .
• If the rate of interest on bond rise, the firm find it profitable to
invest on bonds and the optimal cash balance will be lower and
vice versa.
• Baumol’s analysis to wards an other important facts about the
behavior of demand for transaction balances.
• When a firm or an individual purchase large number of bonds, it
is left with small transaction balance and vice versa.
12/09/19 273
• The optimum holding of cash balances (Md).On the assumption that
expenditure occurs smoothly over each month, the average holding of
money is half that held at the beginning of each month .
• The demand for money is the demand for real balance since the
value of average cash holding over the year is K/2 , the demand for
real balance of transaction .
12/09/19 277
• Given the above two assumption the individual wealth holder faced
with formidable problem of deciding as to what fraction he
should hold in the form of money and in the form of bond .
• Here ,Money neither brings any returns, nor impose any risk i.e ,
the cash balance has fixed monetary value .
• Bond not only bring income in the form of interest rate but also
impose some rise of capital gain or loss.
• An investor can bear this risk, if he is compensated by an
adequate return from bond .
• In the portfolio of an individual ,more bond means more risk and
more income .
• It is worth mentioning that Tobin’s portfolio approach, according
to which liquidity preference(i.e.demand for money) is
determined by the individual’s attitude towards risk, can be
extended to the problem of asset choice when there are several
alternative assets, not just two of money and bonds.
12/09/19 278
• He classified investors into three
1. The risk lover: gambler who put all their wealth in to bond to maximize
risk .
• They accept risk of loss in exchange for the income they accept from bond
and they act as gambler .
2. The plungers: They will either put all their wealth in to bond or will keep
it in cash .They either go all the way or not at all.
3. The risk averter or diversifier : majority of the investors belongs to this
category .
• They prefer to avoid risk of loss which is associated with hold of bonds.
• They try to maximize returns and minimize risk .
• Liquidity preference theory is very relevant for the risk averter or
diversifiers .
• They are prepared to bear some additional risk only if they expect to
receive some additional risk only if they expect to receive some additional
returns on bond ,provided every increase in risk born brings with it greater
increase in returns .
• They will, therefore ,diversify their portfolios, and hold both money and
bond .
12/09/19 279
• Diversifier generally prefer to hold on a mixed portfolio of some cash and some
bonds .
• Every investor act on the basis of his subjective estimation of probability
distribution of risk and returns .
• In general Tobin demonstrated that for a given uncertainty about the future
interest rate, the wealth holder bears a greater or smaller risk as he holds a
larger or smaller proportion of his total wealth portfolio in the form of bonds.
• A wealth holder who operates under the above assumed condition will maximize
the expected growth of wealth if he holds his total wealth in the form of bonds.
He will, however, simultaneously also bear the maximum risk of a possible
capital gain or loss.
• If, on the other hand, the wealth holder holds his entire wealth in the form of
money he will assume zero risk but his wealth will not grow at all.
• In order to find out risk averter’s preference between risk and expected returns .
• Tobin uses indifference curves(IC) having positive slopes indicating that the risk
averter demands more expected returns in order to take more risk.
• The line OX is the budget line of the risk averter which shows the combination
of risk and expected return on the basis of which he arranges his portfolio of
wealth consisting of money and bonds .
12/09/19 280
• The Y-axis (OY) measures expected return on portfolio and
• The X-axis (OX) measures risk.
• The investor requires more income to compensate for any increase
in risk.
• As a result the indifference curves (Ic1, Ic2& Ic3)slopes upward to the
right.
• The preference curves are convex downwards as an individual
becomes increasingly reluctant to accept additional risk as the risk of
his portfolio increases.
• Given the rate of interest on bonds, the opportunities(budget line)
open to an individual, with a given amount of funds, is shown by the
straight line through the origin-ox1.
• At ‘O’ the individual holds all his assets in money there is no
income and no risk.
• If the entire money is invested in bonds, the individual is at x1 and
income and risk are both maximized. 281
• Here, we can draw a set of indifference curves showing the combinations between
money and bonds as shown in figure
• The individual attains equilibrium at point P1 the point of tangency between the
indifference curve and the opportunity curve, ox1.
• At p1, the portfolio of the individual consists of both money and bonds.
12/09/19 282
• If the rate of interest rises, the opportunity curves for the individual
shifts to OX2.
• The equilibrium is at point P2, where a greater proportion of
assets will be in the form of bonds.
• In other words, as the interest rate increases, the increase in the
wealth holder's welfare which has been shown by the movement
on to the higher indifference curves is a accomplished by an
increase in the amount of bonds ( or decrease in the amount of
money held ) and also by increase in the portfolio risk.
• That is From the above graph,when interest rate is r1 and s/he hold
bond s (OP1) and P1M money (cash) .
• When the rate of interest increase from r1 to r2 risk averter , hold
successive units of more bonds (rise from OP1 to OP2) and less on
money (reduce from P1P2 ) in their portfolio
• Thus, Tobin again, like Keynes, proves the negative relationship
between the speculative demand for money and the rate of
interest.
12/09/19 283
To summarize let us see graph of slide 294
• The proportion of bonds held in the portfolio is
measured down from the origin along the vertical axis.
• Thus, at the origin, the portfolio contains no bonds, at W
no money. The ray from the origin indicates the amount
of risk associated with each possible composition of the
portfolio, with the extreme positions of all money and all
bonds placing us at 0 and RK1 respectively along the
horizontal axis. We can then see from the upper part of
the diagram that, at an interest rate of i1, an all bonds
portfolio produces an expected return of ib1 along the
vertical axis.
• A mixed portfolio of, say, 0B1 bonds and B1W money
involves risk as shown by RK2along the horizontal axis
and an expected return of ib2. We can see that an
increase in the interest rate to i2 leaves the risk
associated with this portfolio unchanged but raises the
expected return to ib3.
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• Possible composition of portfolios
Utility is maximized where the ray
from the origin is tangent to an
indifference curve (at P).
• Since this determines the chosen
degree of risk associated with the
portfolio, it also determines the
division of the portfolio between
bonds (0B1) and money (B1W).
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Possible composite of portfolio
• OB1 bond , B1w money . OW total
value(fixed) of portfolio.
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The effect of a fall in interest
rates(from i1 to i2
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• The figure also shows that, as the rate of interest rate increase,
by equal increment from r1 to r2 by the, risk averter hold bond
by a deceasing increment.
• This means that the demand for money is fall by small
amounts, as the rate of interest increase . This because the total
wealth in the portfolio consists of bond plus money .
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Superiority of Tobin over Keynes
• Tobin theory did not depends on inelasticity expectation of
future interest rate ,but proceeds from the assumption that
the expected value of gain or loss from holding interest
bearing asset is always zero which is more logical and
satisfactory foundation .
• His theory explains that individual hold diversified portfolio
of bonds and money .
• He regard the demand for money is as closely related to
interest rate and inversely related to interest rate and provide a
basis for liquidity preference .
• Tobin is more realistic in discussing the perfect elasticity of
demand for money at a very low rate of interest .
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3.4. Fried man’s modern quantity theory of money(capital or wealth theory )
• In 1956, Milton Friedman developed a theory of the demand for money
in a famous article, "The Quantity Theory of Money: A Restatement.”
• He considered money as asset or capital good.
• Though, Friedman, like his predecessors, pursued the question of why
people choose to hold money, he did not however, deal with the
specific motives for holding money, as Keynes did.
• He simply applied the general theory of portfolio choice to money.
• He said that the demand for money is affected by the same factors that
affect the demand for any other asset.
• For ultimate wealth holders the demand for money ,in real term ,may be
expected to be a function of primarily total wealth ,the expected rate of
return of money and other assets ,the division of wealth between human
and non human forms ,taste and preference ,etc.
290
• Friedman considers different forms in which wealth can be
held, namely,
• Money bonds , equities , physical non human goods and
human capital .
• Money is thus one of the several forms of assets in which
wealth may be held.
• Like the theory of consumer choice, the demand for money
depends on:
1. The total wealth to be held indifferent forms;
2. The relative costs and the rates of returns on different forms of
assets in which wealth can be held, and
3. Tastes and preferences of wealth owing units or any other
institutional factors.
12/09/19 291
• Therefore, according to Friedman, the main determinants of the
individual’s demand for real balances were the real yields on other
assets(bonds, equities and physical assets),the rate of inflation, real
wealth and the ratio of human to non-human wealth. Writing this
demand function in symbols,
Md/P = f(W, h, -rm, -rb, -re, P, -π, U) .
• Where Md stands for nominal demand for money and Md/P for
demand for real money balances, W stands for wealth of the
individuals in real term, h(HW/NHW) i.e the proportion of human
wealth to the non human wealth held by the individuals.
• Human wealth(HW) is the present discounted value of labor
income while, non human wealth(NHW) the individual’s financial
and physical assets. rm for rate of return or interest on money, rb for
rate of return on bonds, and re for rate of return on equities in real
terms , P for the price level, π rate of inflation), and U for the
institutional factors or taste and preference .
292
Simplifying Friedman’s Demand for Money Function
• A major problem faced in using Friedman’s demand for
money function has been that due to the non-existence of
reliable data about the value of wealth (W). It is difficult to
estimate the demand for money. To overcome this difficulty,
Friedman suggested that since the present value of wealth or
W=YP/r (where Yp is the permanent income and r is the rate of
interest on money.), permanent income Yp can be used as a
proxy variable for wealth.
• Incorporating this in Friedman’s demand for real money
balance function we have:
Md/p =(Yp,h,-rm,-rb,-re p,-π,U).
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1)Wealth (W): analogue of budget constrained.
• The major factor determining the demand for money is the
wealth of the individual (W). In wealth Friedman includes not
only non human wealth such as bonds, shares, money which
yield various rates of return but also human wealth or human
capital. By human wealth Friedman means the value of an
individual’s present and future earnings.
• Whereas non human wealth can be easily converted into money,
that is, can be made liquid. Such substitution of human wealth is
not easily possible.
• Thus human wealth represents illiquid component of wealth
and, therefore, the proportion of human wealth to the non
human wealth has been included in the demand for money
function as an independent variable.
• Income is the surrogate of wealth .
12/09/19 294
• Individual’s demand for money directly depends on his total
wealth. Indeed, the total wealth of an individual represents an
upper limit of holding money by an individual and is
similar to the budget constraint of the consumer in the
theory of demand.
• The greater the wealth of an individual, the more money he
will demand for transactions and other purposes. As a
country, becomes richer, its demand for money for transaction
and other purposes will increase.
• Since as compared to non- human wealth, human wealth is
much less liquid, Friedman has argued that as the proportion
of human wealth in the total wealth increases, there will be
a greater demand for money to make up for the illiquidity of
human wealth.
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2)Rates of Interest or Return (rm, rb, re
Md
12/09/19 300
Money balance
Superiority of Friedman over Keynesian theory
• Friedman use broader definition of money i.e money is an
asset or capital goods capable of serving a temporary abode of
purchasing power than demand deposit and non interest
bearing dept of the government .
• Demand for money is a function of many variables like
bond ,security ,yield of money and yield on physical assets
rather and other variables i.e taste and preference of the
consumers than confined to bond only .
• Monetary disturbance directly affects price and production of
all actives un like Keynes .
• Friedman did not divide the motive of holding cash in active
and idle balance .
• Friedman introduce permanent income and nominal income to
explain his theory but Keynesian did not doing so .
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Criticism
1. Very Broad Definition of Money:
• Friedman has been criticized for using the broad definition of
money which not only includes currency and demand deposits (М 1)
but also time deposits with commercial banks (M2). This broad
definition leads to the obvious conclusion that the interest elasticity
of the demand for money is negligible. If the rate of interest
increases on time deposits, the demand for them (M2) rises. But the
demand for currency and demand deposits (M1) falls.
• So the overall effect of the rate of interest will be negligible on the
demand for money. But Friedman’s analysis is weak in that he does
not make a choice between long-term and short-term interest rates.
In fact, if demand deposits (M1) are used a short-term rate is
preferable, while a long-term rate is better with time deposits (M2).
Such an interest rate structure is bound to influence the demand for
money.
12/09/19 302
2. Money not a Luxury Good: Friedman regards money as a luxury
good because of the inclusion of time deposits in money. This is
based on his finding that there is higher trend rate of the money
supply than income in the United States. But no such ‘luxury
effect’ has been found in the case of England.
3. More Importance to Wealth Variables:
• In Friedman’s demand for money function, wealth variables are
preferable to income and the operation of wealth and income
variables simultaneously does not seem to be justified. As pointed
out by Johnson, income is the return on wealth, and wealth is
the present value of income. The presence of the rate of interest
and one of these variables in the demand for money function
would appear to make the other superfluous.
4. Does not consider Time Factor:
• Friedman does not tell about the timing and speed of adjustment or
the length of time to which his theory applies.
12/09/19 303
1.5Empirical evidence on money demand
• Empirical finding shows that interest sensitivity of money
demand but no liquidity trap .
• It is also observed that transactional demand was stable till
1973, unstable after; most likely, source of instability is
financial innovation and cast doubts on money targets.
• There is a broader agreement that income is positively related
with money demand and interest rate is negatively related with
money demand ,but considerable variation in value of
regression coefficient .
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Chapter review questions
1) Compare and contrast the transaction balance and cash
balance approach of demand for money ?
2) What are the motives for holding cash balance according to
Keynes ? Give the modifications made by modern economists
3) Analyze the investor approach to the transaction for money .
What is the relation ship with the rate of interest ?
4) Discuss the portfolio selection approach to the speculative
demand for money ?How it is superior to the Keynesian
liquidity preference theory ?
5) Explain the Friedman demand for money ? and How it is
superior to the Keynesian ?
12/09/19 305
Chapter 4: The Money supply Process (12hrs)
4.1 Meaning and constitutes of money supply
4.1.1 Meaning of money supply
4.1.2 Constitutes of money supply
4.2 Multiple Deposit Creation and money supply process
4.2.1 Players in the Money Supply Process
4.2.2 Central Bank Balance Sheet
4.3 Money supply Multiplier
4.4 The determinates of money supply .
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4.1 Meaning and constitutes of money supply
• Generally, Money supply the total amount of monetary
assets available in an economy at a specific time .It
refers to the stock of money held by the public in spend
able form only.
• The term, money supply means the total stock of money
held by the public in expenditure form.
• The term ‘public’ here, refers to the individuals and
the business firms in the economy, excluding the central
government, the central bank and the commercial banks.
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• The cash balances held by the central government, the
central bank and the commercial bank do not form money
supply because they are not in actual circulation.
• Money supply is a stock as well as a flow concept. When
money supply is viewed at a point of time, it is a stock,
and when viewed over a period of time, it is a flow.
• Money supply at a particular moment of time is the stock
of money held by the public at a moment of time. It refers
to the total currency notes, coins and demand deposits with
the banks held by the public.
• Over a period of time, money supply becomes a
flow concept. Money may be spent several times during
a period of time.
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• There is no agreement among Economists on the definition of
money supply.
• There are four broad approaches of money supply.
4.1.1 Meaning of money supply
1.Traditional Approach
• The traditional approach emphasizes the medium of exchange
function of money.
• According to this approach, money supply is defined as currency
with public and demand deposits with commercial banks.
• Demand deposits are the current accounts and saving account of
depositors in a commercial bank .They are the liquid form of
money because depositors can draw cheque at any amount lying in
their account in their accounts and the bank has to make immediate
payment on demand .
• Demand deposit with the commercial bank plus currency with
the public are together denotes as M1 ,the money supply.
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• The traditional approach is analytically superior because
it provides the most liquid and exact measure of money
supply.
• The central bank can have better control over the money
supply, if it includes currency and demand deposits of banks
alone. But, this regarded as the narrow definition of the
money supply.
2)Monetarist approach (Friedman modern quantity theory of
money)
• This approach defines money supply to include currency plus
demand deposits plus commercial bank time deposits i.e.
(M2=M1 + time deposit of commercial bank)
• Time deposits are fixed deposits of the banks and posses
liquidity which earn a fixed rate of interest depending on the
period for which the amount is deposited.
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M2 of Ethiopia from 1974-
. 2017
12/09/19 311
• According to Friedman money is defined as "anything that serves
the function of providing a temporary abode of purchasing power".
• Money can act as a temporary abode of purchasing power, if it is kept
in the form of cash, demand deposits or any other asset which is close
to currency, i.e., time deposits.
• This approach lays emphasis on the store of value function of
money and provides a broader measure of money.
• M2 is the wider definition of money supply in Amercia and M3 in
British and India .
3) Gurley and Shaw Approach:
• Gurley and Shaw further widened the scope of money supply by
including in its constituents currency plus demand and time
deposits of banks plus the liabilities of non-banking
intermediaries.
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• M3 is the sum of M2 plus deposit of saving bank ,building
societies , loan associations , deposit of other credit and financial
institutions .
4)Radcliffe Committee Approach:
• Radcliffe Committee approach or liquidity approach provides a
much wider view of the concept of money supply(M4).
• As per this approach, the supply of money is a meaningless
number in presence of other financial assets substitutable for
money.
• The spending decisions by households and corporate bodies are not
determined by money, i.e. the quantity of means of payment, but
by the whole structure of liquidity in the economy.
• The spending here is not limited to the amount of money in
existence. It is related to the amount of money people think they
can get hold of whether by receipts of income, disposal of
assets or by borrowing.
313
• Thus, according to the approach, money supply includes cash, all kinds of bank
deposits, the deposits with other institutions, near-money assets and the
borrowing facilities available to the people.
• The practical difficulty with this liquidity approach is that the money supply in
this wider sense cannot be successfully measured because the degree of
liquidity of different constituents of money supply varies considerably.
Moreover, most of the constituents remain outside the control of the Central
Bank and thus restrict the effective implementation of monetary policy.
• Hence, the choice between these alternative definitions of the money supply
depends two considerations ;
1) A particular definition of money supply facilitate or blur the analysis of various
motives for holding cash .
2) From the point of view of monetary policy an appropriate definition include the
area over which the monetary authority have direct influence .
• If the these two criteria's are applied ,none of four definition is wholly
satisfactory .
• The first definition may be analytically better ,because M1 is a sure medium of
exchange but M1 is inferior store of value because it earns zero rate of interest
as is earned by time deposit .
• Further, the central bank can have direct control over a narrow
area if only demand deposit is included in the money supply.
• M2 includes time deposits in the supply of money is less
satisfactory analytically because in a highly developed financial
structure ,it is important to consider separately the motive for
holding means of payment and time deposits .
• Unlike ,the demand deposit ,time deposits are not a perfect liquid
form of money . This is because the amount lying in them can be
withdrawal immediately by cheques.
• Normally it can not be withdrawal before the due date of expire
of deposit .
• In case a depositor wants his money earlier ,he has to give a
notice ,to the bank which allows the withdrawal after changing a
penal interest rate form the depositor .
• Thus the time deposit lack perfect liquidity and can not be
included in the money supply . 315
• But this definition is more appropriate from the point of view
of monetary policy because the central bank can exercise
control over a wide area that includes a wide area that
includes both demand and time deposits held by the
commercial bank .
• The third definition(M3) which equal to ,M2 plus deposit of
non-bank financial institution and the fourth definition (M4)
which equal,M3 plus meaningless number in presence of other
financial assets substitutable for money are unsatisfactory in
both criteria.
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Measuring the value of money supply
We can measure the value of money or total money supply in
the economy with
M1 =currency + demand deposit.
M2= currency +demand deposit + time deposit .
M3 = currency +demand deposit + time deposit+ deposit by
other depository institutions rather than banks .
M4= currency +demand deposit + time deposit+ deposit by other
depository institutions rather than banks + near assets .
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The amount of M is in
million Birr
Source : National bank of
Ethiopia ,2018 annual
report 318
Money supply in Ethiopia 1979/80-2017/18 G.C based on NBE data
12/09/19 319
4.1.2. Constitutes of money supply
• Monetary economists hold different views regarding the constituents of
money supply. Broadly, there are two views: the traditional view and the
modern view.
1. Traditional View. According to the traditional view, money
supply is composed of : Currency money and legal tender, i.e. coins and
currency notes, and Bank money, i.e. demand deposits with the
commercial banks.like Chq able .
2. Modern View. According to the modem view, the phenomenon of money
supply refers to the whole spectrum of liquidity in the asset portfolio of
the individual.
• Thus, in the modern approach, money supply is a wider concept which
includes: Coins ,Currency notes , Demand deposits with the banks ,
Financial assets, such as deposits with time the non-banking financial
intermediaries, like the post-office saving banks, building societies, etc. ,
Treasury and exchange bills and Bonds and equities.
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• The basic difference between the traditional and modern views
is due to their emphasis on the medium of exchange function
of money and the store of value function of money
respectively.
• While the acceptance of medium of exchange function of money
supply gives a narrow view of money supply, the recognition of
the store of value function of money provides a broader concept
of money supply and allows for the substitutability between
money (which is traditionally defined as a medium of
exchange) and the whole spectrum of financial assets.
12/09/19 321
4.2 Multiple Deposit Creation and money supply process
4.2.1. Players in the Money Supply Process . The four players in the money supply
process.
1) The central bank – the government agency that oversees the banking system and is
responsible for the conduct of monetary policy. This bank takes different names in
different countries; the Federal reserve system in the United states and National Bank
in Ethiopia, for instance . central bank is the most important. Its actions largely
determine the money supply.
2)Banks (depository institutions) – the financial intermediaries that accept deposits
from individuals and institutions and make loans: commercial banks, savings and loan
associations, mutual savings banks, and credit unions.
3) Depositors – individuals and institutions that hold deposits in banks.
4) Borrowers from banks – individuals and institutions that borrow from the
depository institutions and institutions that issue bonds that are purchased by the
depository institutions.
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4.2.2. Central Bank Balance Sheet and Control of the monetary base
12/09/19 323
.
12/09/19 324
Assets:- government securities holdings by the central bank that affect money supply
and earn interest and discount loans provide reserves to banks and earn the discount
rate.
1) Securities:– these are the central banks holdings of securities, which consist primarily of
treasury securities.
• The total amount of securities is controlled by open market operations (the central bank’s
purchase and sale of these securities). Securities are by far the largest category of assets
in the central banks’ balance sheet.
2) Discount loans- these are loans the Central Bank (Fed) makes to banks, and the amount is
affected by the Central bank's setting the discount rate, the interest rate the Central bank
charges banks for these loans.
• These first two Central bank assets are important because they earn interest. Because the
liabilities of the Central bank do not pay interest, the Central bank makes billions of
dollars every year. Its assets earn income and its liabilities cost nothing. Although it
returns most of its earnings to the federal government, the Central bank does spend some
of it on “worthy causes”, such as supporting economic research.
3) Gold and SDR certificate accounts. Special drawing rights (SDRS) are issued to
governments by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to settle international debts and
have replaced gold in international financial transactions. When the treasury acquires
gold or SDRs, it issues certificates to the Central bank that are claims on the gold or
SDRS and is in turn credited with deposit balances at the Central bank. The gold and
SDR accounts are made up of these certificates issued by the Treasury.
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4) Coin- this is the smallest item in the balance sheet, and it
consists of treasury currency (mostly coins) held by the
Central bank.
5) Cash items in process of collection- These arise from the
Central bank’s check-clearing process. When a check is given
to the Central bank for clearing, the Central bank will present
it to the bank on which it is written and will collect funds by
deducting the amount of the check from the bank’s deposits
(reserves) with the Central bank. Before these funds are
collected, the check is a cash item in process of collection and
is a Central bank asset.
6) Other Federal Reserve assets. These include deposits and
bonds denominated in foreign currencies as well as physical
goods such as computers, office equipment, and buildings
owned by the Central bank.
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Liabilities:- monetary liabilities are currency in circulation in the hands of the
public and Reserves bank deposits at the central bank and vault cash
1) Central bank notes (currency) outstanding. The Central bank issues
currency (those pieces of paper in your wallet).
• The Central bank notes outstanding are the amount of this currency that is in
the hands of the public. (Currency held by depository institutions is also a
liability of the Central bank but is counted as part of the reserves liability.)
2) Reserves. All banks have an account at the Central bank in which they hold
deposits.
• Reserves consist of deposits at the Central bank plus currency that is physically
held by banks (called vault cash because it is stored in bank vaults).
• Reserves are assets for the banks but liabilities for the Central bank because the
banks can demand payment on them at any time and the Central bank is
required to satisfy its obligation by paying Central bank notes.
• As you will see, an increase in reserves leads to an increase in the level of
deposits and hence in the money supply.
12/09/19 327
• Total reserves can be divided in to two categories: reserves that the Central
bank requires banks to hold (required reserves) and any additional
reserves the banks choose to hold (excess reserves).
• For example, the Central bank might require that for every dollar of
deposits at a depository institution, a certain fraction (say, 10 cents) must be
held as reserves. This fraction (10 percent) is called the required reserve
ratio.
3)Treasury deposits. The Treasury keeps deposits at the Central bank, against
which it writes all its checks.
4) Foreign and other deposits, these include the deposits with the Central
bank owned by foreign governments, foreign central banks, international
agencies (such as the World Bank and the United Nations)
4) Deferred-availability cash items. Like cash items in process of collection,
these also arise from the Central bank’s check–clearing process.
5) Other liabilities and capital accounts: this item includes all the remaining
liabilities not included elsewhere on the balance sheet. For example, stock
in the Central bank purchased by member banks is included here.
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4.3. Money supply multiplier
•The process of money multiplier will be as follows;
Monetary base or high powered money (B or H).
•The sum of the currency in circulation and reserves is called the
monetary base.
Currency in circulation is the amount of currency in the hands
of the public.
The currency component of the money supply, no matter how it
is defined, includes only currency in circulation.
It does not include any additional currency that is not yet in the
hands of the public.
Currency held by depository institutions is a liability of the
central bank, but is counted as part of the reserves.
12/09/19 329
• Reserves consist of banks’ deposits at the central bank plus currency that is
physically held by banks (called vault cash because it is stored in bank vaults).
• Reserves are assets for the banks but liabilities for the central bank, because the
banks can demand payment on them at any time and the central bank is required
to satisfy its obligation (by paying notes).
Money multiplier (m)
• The ratio of money supply to the monetary bases .
• m tell as by how much will change money supply with a given change in high
powered money or base money .
• Let us the two stock concept for our discussion first .
1)Take M1
• Monetary base or high powered money or reserve money(H): C+RR(bank
deposit of banks at NBE) where RR is required reserve of commercial bank
and C currency with the public .
• Money supply (M):M1=C+DD Where, D is the demand deposit of commercial
bank and C is currency with the public. 330
• At any particular time there should be a monetary base of a given value and
similarly a given quantity of a broader money and it’s a simple task to create ratio
of money supply to a monetary base .
• As we see from above ,the volume of abroad based money relation to the base
depend up on the two ratio ;
Currency to deposited ratio (Cr) or the public cash ratio .
Reserve to bank deposit ratio (Rr ) or bank ratio.
• The higher the value of m1 multiplier, the lower will be the reserve ratio(Rr)
and currency deposit ratio (Cr) .
• Note : In fractional reserve system Rr will have a value less than 1. Then, the
above term is greater than 1. Consequently , 1 birr increase in money base will
leads to more than 1 birr increase in money supply(M1) . 331
Example : Suppose that the monetary base B is
Birr 800 billion, the reserve deposit ratio rr is
0.1, and the currency–deposit ratio cr is 0.8.
A)find the money multiplier ?
Solution :m=Cr+1/Cr+rr =2
B) Find the money supply ?
Solution:
M2= mXB= 2xBirr 800= Birr 1,600
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Example : Given hypothetical data as follows ;
The Required reserve ratio(Rr) determined by
law of a given country is = 0.10 .
Currency in circulation(C) = Birr400 billion.
Checkable deposits(D) = Birr800 billion
A)Calculate currency ratio(Cr)?
B)The money multiplier ?
C)Interpret the result ?
12/09/19 333
Solution:
A)Cr=C/D=Birr 400billion/Birr800 billion =0.50.
B)
= 1+0.50/+0.10+0.50=1.50/0.600=2.50
Interpretation :
The money multiplier of 2.5 tells us that given the required
reserve ratio of 10 percent on checkable deposits and the
behavior of depositors as represented by Cr 0.5,a Birr1 increase
in the monetary base leads to a birr2.50 increase in the money
supply M1.
12/09/19 334
2)Take M2=M1+ Time deposit
M2=D+C+TD .
• The high powered money include required reserve ,currency held by the
public and excess reserve of commercial bank(ER) . H=RR+ER+C
M2=m2H
• Where Rr is required reserve ratio, Cr is currency ratio and Td time
deposit ratio.
• The value of m2 is higher than m1 multiplier because , because it leads to
greater increase in the monetary base .
335
Example2: Given hypothetical data as follows ;
The Required reserve ratio(Rr) determined by law of a given
country is = 0.10 .
Currency in circulation(C) = Birr400 billion.
Checkable deposits(D) = Birr800 billion.
Time deposit (TD) = birr 200 billion
Excess reserves(ER) = birr0.8 billion then,
A)Calculate currency ratio(Cr)?
B) Calculate excess reserve ratio (Er) ?
C) The money multiplier ?
D)Interpret the result ?
Other ratio: The ratio of M2 to GDP, an indicator of financial
deepening.
12/09/19 336
• The higher m2 , the lower will be the rate of Cr, Er, and Rr .
• The above formula define money supply in terms of high
powered money .
• It express the money supply in terms of four determinates, H
Cr,Rr and Er .
• The equation states that ,the higher the supply of high-powered
money(H) ,the higher the money supply .
• Further, the lower , Cr ,Rr and Er , then money supply will be
higher .
• The higher the money supplier (m2) will leads to higher money
supply but the amount of m2 is determined by currency ratio
(Cr), required reserve ratio (Rr) at the central bank and Excess
reserve ratio(Er) of the commercial bank .
• The lower these ratio are ,the larger the multiplier is(m2) and
hence the stability of m2 is determined by them .
12/09/19 337
• If money multiplier(m2) if fairly stable (cr,Rr and Er constant) ,
the central bank by manipulating H to manipulate the money
supply .
Hd
Hs’
Figure 1. Figure 2.
• In figure1,Hs is the supply of high powered money
• Hd is the demand for high powered money associated with each
level of money supply (Hd=Cr+Rr+Er)/1+Cr.
• Given the Cr,Rr and Er and the high powered money Hs, the
equilibrium money supply is OM . If the money supply is larger
than this like OM1,there will be excess demand for high powered
money and vice versa.
12/09/19
• If there is an increase in any one of the ratio Cr,or Rr or Er, there
would be an increase in demand for high powered money. This
is shown by Hd’ curve in figure. Where the increase in the
demand for high powered money lead to decline in the money
supply to OM’ .
M2=m2H
• Thus money supply is a function of m and H.
• The size of money multiplier (m) is determined by Cr, Rr,and Er .
• If these multiplier is low , m2 will be larger .
• Given the supply of high powered money, the money supply varies
inversely, with Cr,Rr and Er of the commercial bank.
• But the supply of money varies directly with the change in high
powered money as shown in figure 2.
12/09/19 339
• An increase in the supply of high-powered money by ∆H shifts the
Hs curve up ward to Hs’ .
• At E, the demand and supply of high powered money are in
equilibrium and money supply is OM.
• With the increase in the supply of high powered money to Hs’ ,the
supply of money also increase to OM1 at the new equilibrium point
E1.
• further , figure 2, reveal the operation of money multiplier ,with the
increase in high powered money by ∆H ,the money supply increase
by ∆M. An increase in the high powered money by birr 1
increases by multiple of birr 1.
• Some economists do not take into consideration excess reserve in
determining high powered money .But the monetarist give more
importance for excess reserve. According to them, due to
uncertainties ,prevailing in the banking operation as in
business ,banks always keep excess reserve .
12/09/19
The determinates of money supply multiplier
1) Changes in the reserve- deposit ratio:- If banks make more
loans, then they create more money from every dollar of
reserves. But banks make more loans means they have lower
reserve- deposit ratio and this increases the money multiplier
and the money supply.
2) Changes in the currency- deposit ratio:- The behavior of the
public as to the holdings of currency relative to demand
deposits affect the money multiplier. If the public prefers to
hold more currency to deposits the money multiplier, m, will
go down. This is because banks now have less money than
before to create deposits. However, a decrease in the Cr raises
the money multiplier and hence the money supply.
341
4.4. The determinants of money supply
• There are two theories or views on the determination of
money supply .
1) The money supply is exogenously determined by the
central bank .
2) The money supply is endogenously determined by change
in economic activity which affects peoples desire to hold
currency relative to deposits, the rate of interest, income and
other factors .
• Thus the determinates of money supply are both endogenous
and exogenous which can be broadly described as follows ;
• But it clear that ,there are two major determinants of money
supply endogenously are ; monetary base and money
multiplier .
342
1) Monetary Base or high powered money:
• Magnitude of the monetary base (B) is the significant determinant of
the size of money supply.
• Money supply varies directly in relation to the changes in the monetary
base.
• High powered money is the base for the expansion of bank deposits and
creation of the money supply .
• Monetary base changes due to the policy of the government and
is also influenced by the value of money.
2) Money Multiplier: Money multiplier (m) has a positive influence on the
money supply. An increase in the size of m will increase the money
supply and vice versa.
3) Reserve Ratio: Reserve ratio (Rr) is also an important determinant of
money supply.
• The smaller cash-reserve ratio enables greater expansion in the credit by
the banks and thus increases the money supply and High reserve ration ,
low money supply .
• Reserve ratio is often broken down into its two component parts or
12/09/19 343
3.1 Minimum required reserve ratio or minimum cash
reserve ratio or the reserve deposit ration which is the
ratio of required reserves to the total deposits of the bank
(Rr= RR/D).
• Every commercial bank is required to keep a certain
percentage of these liabilities in the form of deposits with the
central bank of the country. But notes or cash held by
commercial bank in their till are not included in the
minimum requirement ratio .
• An increase in the required reserve ratio, reduce money
supply in the commercial bank and vice versa .
• It is the ratio of cash to current and time deposit liability
which is determined by law i.e. The Rr ratio is legally fixed
by the central bank (e.g 10% in Ethiopia in 2010E.C) .
12/09/19 344
3.2 Currency Ratio: Currency ratio (Cr) is a behavioral ratio
representing the ratio of currency demand to the demand
deposits.
• The effect of the currency ratio on the money multiplier (m) cannot
be clearly recognized because Cr enters both as a numerator
and a denominator in the money multiplier expression
• But, as long as the Rr ratio is less than unity, a rise in the Cr ratio
must reduce the multiplier and their by reduced money supply.
4) The level of bank reserve : Commercial bank consists of reserves on
deposits with the central bank and currency in their till or vaults .
• The central bank requires all commercial bank to hold reserve equal
to a fixed percentage of both time and demand deposit .
A) Required reserve
• It is determined by the required reserve ratio and the level of deposit
of commercial bank RR=RrxD .
• Required reserve increase , reduce money supply .
B) Excess reserve: It is the difference between total reserve minus
required reserve (ER=TR-RR) .
• It is the amount of excess reserve of a commercial bank, which
influence the size of its deposit liability . A commercial bank advance
loan equal to its excess reserve which are important components of
the money supply . To determine the supply of money with the
commercial bank , the central bank influence its reserve by adopting
open market operation (selling and buying of bond government
security ) and discount rate policy .
• To expand bank reserve ,commercial bank buy bond, money supply
reduced . So that , excess reserve increase , money supply reduced.
12/09/19 346
5) Confidence in Bank Money:
• General economic conditions affect the confidence of the public in bank money
and, there by, influence the currency ratio (Cr) and the reserve ratio (Rr).
• During recession, confidence in bank money is low and, as a result, Cr and Rr
ratios rise and their by money supply reduced. Conversely, during
prosperity, Cr and Rr ratios tend to be low when confidence in banks is high
and money multiplier is high, and money supply will be high .
6) Time-Deposit Ratio: Time-deposit ratio (t), which represents the ratio of time
deposits to the demand deposits is a behavioral parameter having a
negative effect on the money multiplier (m) and thus on the money
supply.
• A increase in Td reduces m and thereby the supply of money decreases.
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7) Value of Money: The value of money (1/P) in terms of
other goods and services has a positive influence on the
monetary base (B) and hence on the money stock.
• Value of money increase , monetary base increase leads to
an increase in money supply
8) Real Income. Real income (Y) has a positive influence on
the money multiplier and hence on the money supply. A rise
in real income will tend to increase the money multiplier and
thus increase the money supply and vice versa.
12/09/19 348
9) Interest Rate: Interest rate has a positive effect on the money
multiplier and hence on the money supply.
• A rise in the interest rate will reduce the reserve ratio (Rr),
which raises the money multiplier(m) and hence increases
the money supply and vice versa .
• Borrowers from banks and the government, household and
firm ,reason, Er, so more reserves to support D;TD so more
MB to support D and C.
10) Discount rate police or bank rate: The rate at which the
commercial bank borrow from the central bank .
• The bank rate policy affects the money supply by influencing
the cost and supply of bank credit to commercial bank .
• A higher discount rate means commercial bank gets less
amount by selling securities to the central bank .
12/09/19 349
• The commercial bank rise their lending rate to the public there by
making adverse dearer for them and then, there will be contraction
of credit and the level of commercial bank reserve .
• It should be noted that the commercial bank reserve are affecting
significantly only when open market operation and discount rate
policy supplement each other . Other wise, their effectiveness as
determinates of bank reserve and consequently of money supply
will be limited .
11) Monetary Policy:
• Monetary policy has a positive or negative influence on the
money multiplier and hence on the money supply, depending upon
whether reserve requirements are lowered or raised.
• If reserve requirements are raised, the value of reserve ratio (Rr)
will rise, reducing the money multiplier and thus the money
supply and vice versa.
12/09/19 350
11) Seasonal Factors: Seasonal factors have a negative effect on
the money multiplier, and hence on the money stock.
• During holiday periods, the currency ratio (Cr) will tend to rise,
thus, reducing the money multiplier and, thereby, reduce the
money supply.
12/09/19 352
Chapter 5: Central Banking and Monetary Policy
5.1. Functions, Structure and Independence of Central Banks
5.2. Tools of Monetary Policy
5.3. Conduct of Monetary Policy: Goals and targets .
5.4. Central Bank Strategy
5.5. Monetary targeting and Empirical Evidence
5.6. Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy
12/09/19 353
5. Meaning of bank
• There are different assumption to the origin of banking .
• This is derived from past experience of Greek and Rome
• Some side that banking comes from a German word “bench”
• An Italian word “ banco” and
• French word “Banque” which means in English a bench over
which people site it in the center of the market to exchange .
• They used to sit on a bench in the center of the market and
receive deposit from the public and pay to the public from the
deposit .
• The were referred as “benchers” .
354
• Banking that time was mainly concerned with the service of
currency exchange .
• The gold smiths, money lenders and merchants have contribute to
the emergence of banking and regard as ancestor of the present day
bank .
• The origin of commercial banking can be traced back to around 2000
B.C .by Babylonians who was performing the safe keeping and
saving functions in its oldest form.
• In a African the first black bank is bank of Abyssinia in march 1905
with the promise of Ras Mekonnen (presently main compass of AAU)
owned by national bank of Egypt ,an affiliate of the bank of England
which was given monopoly position .
355
• A bank is financial institution organized in a form of joint
company basis so as to create value to the society and profit to
share holder in a form of dividends .
• It is an institution , which deals with money and credit .
• In modern times the term bank refers to an institution which;
Deals with money ;it accept deposit and advance loans.
Deals with credit ;it has the ability to create credit .
Is a commercial institution ;it aims at earning profit.
Creates a demand deposits which serve as a medium of
exchange , and as a result manage the payment system of a
country .
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Types of banks
i. Based on structure
1. Branch bank system: a big bank as a single institution and
under single ownership operates through a network of braches
spread all over the country or out side the country .
2. The unit banking system: an individual bank operates
through a single office or few branches with in a strictly
limited area .
ii. Based on owner ship
1. Public sector bank : Owned and controlled by the
government like commercial bank of Ethiopia .
2. Private sector bank : Owned and controlled by private
individuals or corporations Like Dashen ,Buna Bank
3. Cooperative bank : They are operated on the cooperative line
to some sort cooperative bank of Oromia .
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iii. Based on function
1. Commercial bank : A type of bank which finance trade and
commerce and perform all kinds of banking business .
2. Industrial bank /investment bank: They are banks that meet
the medium and long term financial need of industries .
3. Agricultural bank : They are banks that finance agriculture .
4. Saving bank :The main purpose is to rise saving habit among the
general public and mobilize their small savings .
5. Central bank : It is the apex bank which control ,regulates and
supervise the monitoring and credit system of a country .
6. Exchange banks : They deal in foreign exchange and specialize
in financing foreign trade .
7. World bank : It is an institution which provide financial
assistance to the member country of world bank .
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5.1. Functions, Structure and Independence of Central Banks
• The functions performed by the central bank are entirely different
than the functions performed by the other banks.
• A central bank is at the top of all banking institutions in the country.
• It acts as the guardian of the money market.
• It controls and guides the money mechanism of the country.
• Each country has its own central bank. For example the National
Bank of (Ethiopia, Belgium, Denmarketc),Federal Reserve bank of
(India, USA ect),The bank of (Italy, Russia ,Japan) and risk bank of
Sweden .
• The first central banks were created in Sweden and England in 1894
and their main task was to finance the budget deficits.
12/09/19 359
Function of central bank
•Monopoly power on issue of currency.
•Lender of the last resort .
•Bankers bank to all other banks in the country .
•Central clearance, settlement and transfer.
• Custodian of foreign balance of the country .
•Control of credit .
•Determine the interest rate of a nation .
•Fiscal agent which makes short term loan to the government .
•Economic advisor of the government on economy and money
matters .
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• Clear checks.
• Withdraw damaged currency from circulation.
• Administer and make discount loans to banks in their districts
• Evaluate proposed mergers and applications for banks to
expand their activities .
• Act as liaisons between the business community and the
Federal reserve system .
• Examine bank holding companies and state chartered member
banks .
• Collect data on local business conditions.
• Use their staffs of professional economists to research topics
related to the conduct of monetary policy
• Custodian of commercial bank cash reserve .
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Structure of central banks of Ethiopia
• The structure of the central bank different from country to country
hence, it is better to the structure of central bank of Ethiopia as
follows;
12/09/19 363
2. Vice governor and financial stability
• Risk supervisions directorate
• Insurance supervisions directorate
• Micro financial institutions supervision
directorate
• Currency management directorate
• Payment and settlement system directorate
12/09/19 364
3. Vice governor corporate service
• Corporate planning and financial directorate
• Human resource management directorate
• Ethiopia academics of financial studies
• Property and service management directorate
• Information system management directorate
• Legal service directorate
12/09/19 365
Structure of central bank (taking national bank of Ethiopia )
12/09/19 366
• Independence of central bank can be expressed ;
1.Goal independence : The ability to set the goals of monetary policy or
action .
2. Instrumental independence: The ability to choice ,monetary
instruments .
3. Both
• Apart from higher oil prices and other ‘shocks’, there are two particular
threats which bear upon the issue of central bank independence:
1) The tendency for policy makers and politicians to push the economy to
run faster and further than its capacity limits allow; and
2) The temptation that governments have to incur budget deficits and fund
these by borrowings from the central bank.
• To be able to do their job of keeping inflation under control, central
banks have to be able to say ‘no’ to governments when that objective is
threatened. This is why the notion of central bank independence is so
important.
12/09/19 367
1) National bank governor independence is realized
when ;
• National bank government mandate have to stay more
than 8 years.
• It should be appointed by the national bank board.
• If the national bank law did not permits the national
bank governor to hold other public position.
• National governor could revoke only for the reason
that are not political or his un able to continue his
work.
12/09/19 368
2) National bank action independence is realized when;
• If the national bank law did not allow the central bank to purchase
government bond or T-bill from the primary market.
• If the national bank is not the development bank for the public and private
sector.
• If the national bank budget is established by national bank of a nation.
• If the national bank profit is distributed according to national bank act.
• If the national bank loan a maturity data of less than 6 years.
• If the national bank may grant short term loan to the state treasury the
maximum loan value is nominal value.
• If the national bank interest rate for short term loans granted to the state
treasury is a market interest rate.
• If there is a conflict between national bank and government, then national
bank decides.
• If the inflation target is fully decided by the national bank of a country.
• If the monetary policy rate is decided by only the national bank of a country.
• If the national bank cannot grant loan to the public institutions.
12/09/19 369
3)National bank board action independence is
realized when;
• If the national bank board are a pointed by the
parliament.
• If the mandate of national bank board is higher
than the parliament.
• If the national bank board did not additional
held public position.
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• National bank degree of independence indicator =Maximum
degree of independence divided by central bank degree of
independence.
• The factors are similar to the ones used by Cukierman (1992).
He give a score for each criterion. The indicator is presented
bellow.
12/09/19 371
12/09/19 372
12/09/19 373
• According to the above indicator, national bank has a high
degree of independence.
• The main disadvantage
1) Equal weights to each criterion introduced and this could
negatively affect the final results. Determining optimal
weights could be a very difficult task.
2) Offers a static view regarding the Central bank independence
and does not present how central bank independence
changed in the past years.
12/09/19 374
The role of central bank for developing economy
•In general the objectives of central banking policy in a
developing economy may be stated as follows:
1.To assist in the mobilization of savings in the community and
promote capital formation.
2.To promote the spread of monetization and monetary
integration through the development of an integrated
commercial banking system.
3.To make adequate provision of credit necessary for
fulfillment of the targets of production and trade .
4.To extend monetary support to the authorities in the central
task of allocation of resources among different sectors in the
economy.
5.To help in maintaining general price stability and preventing
inflationary tendencies from getting out of hand.
12/09/19 375
5.2 Tools of monetary policy
Monetary policy is the government’s policy relating to the money
supply, bank interest rates and borrowing.
•The tools or instruments of monetary policy are of two types.
1) Quantitative ( general or indirect )
•It includes bank rate variations, open market operation and changing
the reserve requirements or variable reserve .
•They are a meant to regulate the over all level of credit in the economy
through the commercial bank .
2) Qualitative (direct or selective )
• It is aimed at controlling specific type of credit .
•They include changing marginal requirements and regulation of the
customer credit . 376
• A Margin Requirement is the percentage of marginable securities that an
investor must pay for with his/her own cash. It can be further broken down
into Initial Margin Requirement and Maintenance Margin Requirement.
• Let us see the various instruments of monetary control which are with in the
hands of the monetary authority clearly as follows ;
1) Open market operations (OMO)
• It refer to the sale and purchase of securities in the monetary market by the
central bank or the selling and buying of bonds and security of the
government and private financial institution by the central in the financial
market .
• To enable open market operations, a central bank must hold foreign
exchange reserves (usually in the form of government bonds) and official
gold reserves.
12/09/19 377
• The method OMO to control inflation central bank sell
bonds ,securities in the open market to the commercial bank or
the public .
• The reserve of commercial bank is reduced and they are not in a
position to lend more to the business community.
• The method OMO to control depression deflation /recessionary
force ,central bank buy bonds ,securities in the open market
from the commercial bank or the public .
• The reserve of commercial bank is raised and they are in a
position to lend more to the business community.
12/09/19 378
3. Open market operations are easily reversed. If a mistake is made in
conducting an open market operation, the central bank can
immediately reverse it. If the central bank decides that the federal
funds rate is too low because it has made too many open market
purchases, it can immediately make a correction by conducting open
market sales.
4. Open market operations can be implemented quickly; they involve
no administrative delays. When the Fed decides that it wants to
change the monetary base or reserves, it just places orders with
securities dealers, and the trades are executed immediately.
2)Change in reserve ratio or variable reserve ratio
• Changes in reserve requirements affect the money supply by causing
the money supply multiplier to change.
• It was first suggested by Keynes in 1930 and implemented in USA in
1935.
12/09/19 379
• Required reserve ratio or legal minimum requirement is required by
law to maintain a minimum percentage of its deposits with in the central
bank . This amount may be a percentage of its time deposit or demand
deposit together or separately
• A rise in required reserve ration reduces the amount of deposits that
can be supported by a given level of the monetary base and will lead to a
contraction of the money supply or reduce the inflation
• Conversely, a decline in reserve requirements leads to an expansion of
the money supply because more multiple deposit creation can take
place.
• When the reserve ratio is lowered, the excess reserve of commercial bank
rise ,They lend more and economic activates is favorably affected i.e
money supply rise . 380
2) Excess reserve : The excess amount of money over the required
reserves that remains with the commercial bank and it’s the
base for credit creation .
• Excess reserve of commercial bank is the base for credit
creation ,if excess reserve is high ,the higher the power of
bank to create credit .
• There is an inverse relation ship between required reserve and
excess reserve of the commercial bank .
381
3) Bank rate policy or bank rate
The bank rate is the minimum lending rate of the central bank at
which it rediscounts the first class bill of exchange and
government security held by the commercial bank .
When there is a problem of inflation , the central bank must
raised bank rate to ,it leads to reduction in amount of money
borrowed by the commercial bank from central bank ,which in
turn, leads to contraction of credit and reduce money supply in
the economy and hence , price are checked from rising further
and vice versa .
12/09/19 382
4) Selective credit control
• They usually take the form of changing margin requirement to
control speculative activities within the economy .
• When there is inflation ,the central bank raising margin
requirement to discourage borrowing and reduce money supply.
• When there is deflation , the central bank lowering margin
requirement to encourage borrowing and rise money supply.
• The degree of success of selective credit controls depends on
several factors.
a) The extent of effective credit restrictions: Since selective credit
controls are generally security oriented and non-purpose oriented,
influential borrowers can mange to escape the bite of these
measures by borrowing against the security of other collaterals
and using the funds so borrowed for indulging in the speculative
holdings of stocks.
383
• Therefore, the effectiveness of selective credit controls is
likely to improve if they are fully supported by general credit
controls.
b)The availability of non-bank finance: To the extent traders
do not depend up on banks for financing their inventories and
have other sources of finance (their own and of the un
regulated credit markets), they will again escape the
constraints of the selective credit controls.
• Obviously this will depend on the cost and availability of
non-bank finance to the parties concerned.
c)The degree of short fall in supply in relation to normal
demand: the greater this short fall, the more will the
speculative fever rise. In case of acute shortages, credit
controls should be imposed well in time without waiting for
the prices of sensitive commodities to rise actually.
12/09/19 384
5. Moral Suasion
• This instrument, used by the central bank both for the
quantitative control of credit and money supply as well as for the
qualitative control of credit (i.e., control over the distribution of
bank credit) is moral suasion and it can be defined as follows.
•Moral suasion is a combination of persuasion and pressures
which a central bank is always in a position to use on banks in
general and errant banks kin particular.
•This is exercised via discussions, letters, speeches, and hints
thrown to banks.
385
• When moral suasion is used for quantitative credit
12/09/19 388
• To explain the graphical illustration . Let us assume ,
• Initially in the recessionary economy is at equilibrium at
interest rate R* and Y* in pane 1 ,p* and Q* in panel 2 at the
existing money supply .
• Suppose the central bank credit policy results an increase in
money supply in the economy .This leads to the right ward
shift of LM curve to LM1 .
• There is an increase in equilibrium level of income from Y*
to Y1* and aggregate demand expand from D to D1 in panel 2.
• With the increase in the demand for goods and services ,output
increase from OQ*to OQ1* at the higher price level P1*.
• If the monetary policy operate smoothly ,the equilibrium at E1
can be at full employment level .But this is not likely to be
attain because of the following limitation .
12/09/19 389
• In severer contraction or Great world depression during 1930
and 1940’s empirical evidence shows that monetary policy is
ineffective or nil to stabilize the economy due to the presence
of pessimism among business .
• Keynes point out that ,a highly elastic liquidity preference
schedule or liquidity trap render monetary policy impotent in
time of server depression
2) Contractionary or restrictive monetary policy
• A monetary policy designed to curtail aggregate demand in the
economy .
• The economy experience inflationary pressures due to rising
consumer demand for goods and services and there is also
boom in business investment .
12/09/19
• The central bank will adopt restrictive monetary policy to rise
cost and availability of bank credit in order to lower aggregate
consumption and investment by rising reserve
requirement ,selling of government security in an open market
operation and rise discount rate and controlling consumer and
of credit in the monetary market and their by control
inflationary pressure
Limitations of monetary policy in controlling inflationary
pressure are ;
• Increase in velocity of money , commercial bank portfolio
adjustment ,the role of non bank financial intermediaries ,time
lag, alternative expectation of borrowers and lenders and
threat to credit market etc.
12/09/19 391
5.3 Conduct of Monetary Policy: Goals and targets
• The problem of central bank is compounded by the fact that their instruments
do not Directly affect these goals.
• These instruments affect variables such as money supply and Interest rates,
which then affect goal variables with lag.
• In addition, these lags may be uncertain. Due to above mentioned problems,
in the conduct of monetary policy distinction is made among.
12/09/19 392
• The conduct of monetary policy can be represented
schematically as follows:
Instruments => Indicators =>Targets => Goals
Monetary Policy Instruments
• Instruments are tools of monetary policy such as ;
1. Open Market Operations
2. Reserve Requirements
3. Operating Band for Overnight Rate
4. Bank Rate
12/09/19 393
Monetary Indicators
• Monetary Indicators are operational Targets.
395
Three' Criteria for Target
12/09/19 396
2. Controllability : A central bank must be able to exercise
effective control over a variable. If it is to function as a useful
target.
• If the Central bank cannot control a target, knowing that it is
off track is not useful because the central bank has no way of
getting it on track.
• For example, the central bank has better control over
monetary aggregates and interest rates than over nominal
GDP (which was suggested as an intermediate target). Thus,
nominal GDP is not a good target.
12/09/19 397
3.Predictable effect on goals
• The most important characteristic a variable must have to be
a good intermediate (operating) target, is that it must have a
predictable impact on (intermediate targets) goals.
• The choice of an operating target can be based on the same
criteria used to evaluate intermediate targets.
• Both the Federal funds rate and Reserve aggregates are
measured accurately and are available daily with almost no
delay; both are easily controllable using the policy tools.
12/09/19 398
Goals
• Goals are long term macro economic objectives of a
nation .
1. High Employment.
2. Economic Growth.
3. Price Stability.
4. Interest-Rate Stability.
5. Stability of Financial Markets.
6. Stability in Foreign Exchange Markets.
12/09/19 399
• Although many of the goals mentioned are consistent
with each other high employment with economic
growth, interest rate stability with financial
market stability, this is not always the case.
• The goal of price stability often conflicts with the
goals of interest rate stability and high employment
in the short run (but probably not in the long run).
• For example, when the economy is expanding and
unemployment is falling, both inflation and
interest rates may start to rise.
12/09/19 400
• If the central bank tries to prevent a rise in interest
rates, this may cause the economy to overheat and
stimulate inflation.
• But if a central bank raises interest rates to prevent
inflation, in the short run unemployment may rise.
• The conflict among goals may thus present central
banks with some hard choices.
12/09/19 401
5.4 Central Bank Strategy
• Monetary Policy Strategies of major central banks are
the following ;
1)Central bank tend to be highly transparent,
explaining policy decisions and the rationale for those
decisions to the public.
2)Central banks consider not only current economic
conditions, but also the expected evolution of the
economy and the risks around that outlook i.e forward
looking .
3)Publish forecasts of inflation and other
macroeconomic variables .
12/09/19 402
1) In deliberating about monetary policy and
formulating projections for the economy, central
bank policymakers routinely consult the
prescriptions of policy rules.
2) With regard to the goals of policy, the Federal
Reserve and other major central banks state the
objectives of monetary policy clearly and publicly
and explain how the policy committee pursues those
goals.
3) Central banks around the world regularly announce
their policy decisions to the general public and
explain the rationale for those decisions.
12/09/19 403
5.6Transmissions Mechanism of Monetary Policy
•The monetary transmission mechanism is the process
by which assets prices and general economic conditions
are affected as a result of monetary policy decisions.
•The effect of change in money demand and change in
money supply and its effect on aggregate economy is
called monetary transmissions.
12/09/19 404
• To develop a framework for understanding how to
evaluate empirical evidence we need to recognize that
there are two basic types of empirical evidence in
economics and other scientific disciplines.
1) Structural model evidence examines whether one
variable affects another by using data to build a model
that explains the channels through which this variable
affects the other.
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• Keynesians typically examine the effect of money on
economic activity by building a structural model, a
description of how the economy operates using a
collection of equations that describe the behavior of
firms and consumers in many sectors of the economy.
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2)Reduced form evidence examines whether one variable has an
effect on another simply by looking directly at the relationship
between the two variables.
• Monetarists tend to focus on reduced form evidence and feel
that changes in the money supply are more important to
economic activity than Keynesians do; Keynesians, for their
part, focus on structural model evidence.
• Monetarists do not describe specific ways in which the money
supply affects aggregate spending.
• Instead, they examine the effect of money on economic activity
by looking at whether movements in aggregate demand are
tightly linked to (have a high correlation with) movements in
Money supply .
407
• Changes on money supply or changes on money demand impact
on aggregate demand in the economy is called monetary
transmission mechanisms .
408
• Let us suppose the national bank of Ethiopia assume;
1) Money supply increase or decrease in money
demand leads to reducing the equilibrium level of
interest rate.
2) Reduced equilibrium level of interest leads to
increasing desired investment expenditure
3) An increase in the desire investment expenditure
leads to increase in aggregate expenditure.
4) An increase in aggregate expenditure will leads to
leads to right ward shit of aggregate demand curve
.
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Structural model of Monetary transmission mechanisms
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Reduced model of monetary transmission mechanisms
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Potential elements of monetary transmission mechanism
– Monetary base
– Exchange rate
– Credit controls
– Exchange controls
– Prudential controls on banks
– Fiscal policy constraints
• These may have direct and more powerful effect on domestic
demand and net trade
• So lags and scale of impact may be very different in different
countries
• Institutional differences and different inflation history also
create a different response to policy rate changes especially
until credibility of the regime is established.
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• No clear cut case can be made that reduced form evidence is
preferable to structural model evidence or vice versa.
• The structural model approach, used primarily by Keynesians, offers
an understanding of how the economy works.
• If the structure is correct, it predicts the effect of monetary policy
more accurately, allows predictions of the effect of monetary policy
when institutions change, and provides more confidence in the
direction of causation between money supply and aggregate demand
or output.
• If the structure of the model is not correctly specified because it
leaves out important transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, it
could be very misleading. 413
Chapter review Questions
1.Expalin the structure and independence of central bank .
2. What is the meaning of monetary policy ?
2. What are the tools of monetary policy instruments ?
3. State the central bank strategy .
3. What are the goals of monetary policy ?
4. List the monetary policy targets .
5. State the two type of monetary policy ?
6. Discuss transmissions mechanism of monetary policy and the
evidence .
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Chapter 6: Monetary Policy in Ethiopia(6hrs)
6.1. Powers and Functions of the National Bank of Ethiopia .
6.2. Conduct of Monetary Policy in Ethiopia
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Chapter 6: Monetary Policy in Ethiopia
418
• Act as a last resort for commercial bank to borrow money at
the time of shortage .
• Mange and administer the international reserve of the country.
• achieving the macro economic objective of a nation.
• Participates ,in accordance with existing law and regulation in
the formation ,licensing ,consolidation or dissolving financial
institution when deemed necessary .
• Prepare regular report on the money supply ,production of
goods and services and official international economic
transactions carried out by the country .
• Acts in accordance with international monetary and banking
practices rule, regulation to which Ethiopia agree .
• Encourages the formation of micro and other financial
institutions in general and commercial bank in general .
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The role and function of commercial bank in Ethiopia
CBE is the biggest lending commercial bank in Ethiopia .
It was incorporated as share company in December 1963 as per the
monetary and banking proclamation 207/1955and began its operation in
January 1964.
Commercial bank is a name given to all banks dealing with the general
public particularly with households and firms .
They are banks established for the purpose of making profit from the
deposited and lending activates .
They usually pay certain amount of interest to the depositor and receive
interest from borrowers.
Revenue for commercial bank(interest differential) =Lending rate –saving
rate .
Regardless of their owner ship and name ,all commercial banks have almost
the same type of objectives , function and role .
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Help to encourage people to save money
Accept deposit of different kind saving ,time and demand deposit .
Extend loans ,credit ,overdraft ,advances and other services for individual
and firm .
Safe keeping or custody of valuable jewels such as diamond ,gold etc.
Participating in buying and selling of foreign exchanges .
Issuing of bonds and participate in buying and selling of treasury
bill ,bond, and other negotiable instruments .
Buying and selling of bill of exchange and other promissory notes .
Accept and issue checks and travel checks .
Issue letter of credits to facilitate export and import trade .
Act as agent of business organizations and individual engage in money
market .
Conduct the transfer of money from one place to another place .
Prepare regular financial report the national bank .
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Similarity
Both the central banks as well as the commercial banks are basically monetary
institutions that are both deal in money in one form or the other.
The central bank creates credit when it issues paper currency without keeping
securities of equivalent value in reserves like wise, the commercial banks also
create credit on the basis of their derivative deposits.
Both the institutions extend short-term loans only because this helps them in
maintaining liquidity in their resources.
The central bank is the apex institution of the country. It controls the
monetary system and the over all credit operations of the banks. The
commercial bank on the contrary is only a constituent unit of the banking
system which is subordinate to the central bank.
The central bank possesses the monopoly of note-issue. issue there was a time
when certain commercial bank also used to issue notes. This right is no longer
held by commercial banks now.
The central bank is not a profit making institution its main concern is to
promote the general economic policy of the government.
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It acts only in the public interest without regard to profit as a primary
consideration. As against this, the primary objective of commercial banks is
to earn profit for its share holders.
The central bank maintains the foreign exchange reserves of the country and
attempts to maintain stability in the exchange rate
The commercial banks only deal in foreign exchange under the directions of
the central bank they do not have the responsibility of maintaining the
foreign exchange reserves and stability in exchange rates.
The central bank is normally owned by the state, while commercial banks
are mostly privately owned.
State ownership of commercial banks is not considered to be as much
essential as that of the central bank.
The central bank does not deal directly with the public, while commercial
banks deal directly with the general public.
The central bank mainly deals with the government and the banking
institutions. Hence, it cannot undertake the functions normally performed
by the commercial banks.
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The central bank is closely related to the government as its
banker and the financial adviser.
It is generally an organ of the government and its actions are
closely coordinated with those of the other departments,
particularly with the department of finance or the Treasury.
Commercial banks, on the other hand, act as bankers and
advisers to the general public only.
The central bank has a special relation with the commercial
banking system of the country.
It is given special powers to control, supervise and regulate the
working of the latter. The commercial banks are required to
act in accordance with the directives issued by the central
bank.
The central bank functions as a banker's bank.
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6.2 Conduct of Monetary Policy in Ethiopia
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Objective of monetary policy in Ethiopia
Foster monetary, credit and financial conditions conducive to orderly,
balanced and sustained economic growth and development.
Preserve the purchasing power of the national currency ensuring that the
level of money supply is generally consistent with developments in the
macro economy and intervening in the foreign exchange rate market for
the purpose of stabilizing the rate when conditions necessitate.
Encourage the mobilization of domestic and foreign savings and their
efficient allocation for productive economic activities through the
implementation of a prudent market driven interest rate policy.
Facilitate the emergence of financial and capital markets that are capable of
responding to the needs of the economy through appropriate policy
measures. These measures would ensure the gradual introduction of
trading instruments on a short-term basis.
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Monetary policy instruments
• The introduction of a wide range of monetary instruments by
central banks engenders competition, efficiency and
transparency and broadens financial intermediation in the
banking system.
• It also promotes liquidity management of commercial banks and
gradually leads to the development of well functioning money
and financial markets which could serve as catalysts for
economic growth and development.
• So far, the use of such instruments has been extremely limited
in Ethiopia due to the underdevelopment of the money
market and the virtual non-existence of a financial market.
Thus, it is envisaged to use a mix of diversified monetary policy
instruments so as to effectively carry out the monetary
management function of the NBE.
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1) Open Market Operation (Sale & purchase of bonds or
securities issued by governments) has generally been used by
countries as one of the main instruments for the development of
money markets.
• Trading in these instruments liquefies the financial system in
particular and the national economy in general and increases
financial intermediation among market participants.
• In light of this, the NBE will use open market operations (sale
and purchase of government securities) as one of its monetary
policy instruments. In the absence of its own securities, certain
amount of government treasury bills needs to be allocated to
NBE by the government for its monetary policy purpose.
• To prepare the ground for enhanced open market operations, the
yield on government securities should be at least close to the
minimum interest rate. As a next step, secondary market for
government securities needs to be established.
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2) A standing central bank credit facility is another instrument
used to enhance the financial capacity of commercial banks
and to promote financial intermediation and efficiency.
• The key advantages of such standing credit facility are
transparency and predictability of accessing central banks’
resources to cover short-term needs.
• This credit facility gives banks an assurance that, when
confronted with problems of shortfall in the clearing and a
lack of alternatives for raising immediate funds in the inter-
bank market, they can settle the clearing with the central
bank’s funds at a reasonable interest rate which has a clear
relationship with short term market interest rates.
• The NBE will use this facility as one of its monetary policy
instrument.
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Other monetary policy instruments used and to be used
include:
• Reserve requirement
• Setting of floor deposit interest rate (until interest rate
is fully deregulated)
• Direct borrowing/lending in the inter-bank money
market and introducing re-purchase agreement
(repo/reverse repo operations),
• Use of selected credit control when necessary, and
• Moral Suasion etc.
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Monetary policy target in Ethiopia
• The final targets of monetary policy in Ethiopia are to
maintain price and exchange rate stability and support
sustainable economic growth.
• In achieving these objectives, the NBE sets money
supply as an intermediate target.
• It should be noted that intermediate targets are not
directly controlled by the central bank.
• Traditionally, money supply is defined from its narrow
and broader sense. Narrow money (M1) is a measure of
money stock intended primarily for use in transactions.
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• It consists of currency held by the public, traveler’s
checks, demand deposits and other checkable
deposits.
• Broad Money (M2) is a measure of the domestic
money supply that includes M1 plus Quasi-money
(savings and time deposits), overnight repurchase
agreements, and personal balances in money market
accounts.
• Basically, M2 includes money that can be used for
spending (M1) plus items that can be quickly
converted to M1.
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Reference
Hard copy available in your library
• M.L. Jhingan. Monetary economics. 7th edition .Vrinda publication (P) LTD.
• R.Cauvery,n.Kruparani,u.K.Sundhanayak,a.Manimekalai (2003). Monetary
economics (for undergraduate student of economics ) .S.CHANDA AND COMPANY
LTD. NEW DELHI
• MC VAISH (2005) .Monetary theory, 6th edition ,Vikas publishing house PVT LTD .
• MC Vaish (1993) .Money Banking and international trade .8thedition ,Wiley
Eastern Limited company, New Delihi .
• D.M.Mithani (2007).Money , Banking and international trade and public
finance .Himalaya publishing house. New Delihi.
• M.L. JHINGAN (2007) .Money, Banking and international trade and public
finance 6th edition, .Himalaya publishing house. New Delhi.
Soft Copy Accessible from Web
• Frederic S. Mishkin (2004) .The economics of money, banking and financial
markets, 7th edition,Columbia University (Addison-Wesley series in economics). (On
line accessible).
• Jagdish Handa (2009). Monetary Economics,2ndEdition ,by Routledg(On line
accessible) 2Park Square,MiltonPark, Abingdon, OxonOX144RN. Simultaneously
published in the USA and Canada
• Chandler,L.V. &Goldfeld,S.M. (1998); The Economics of Money and Banking(On line
accessible)etc..
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Thanks a lot !!
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