CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON

HYDROLOGY

180502011
GARGI ASODARIYA
M.Sc. SEM 3
EVS SESD
CENTRAL UNIVERSITY OF GUJARAT
 HYDROLOGY
• Hydrology is the study of the physical movement
of water through different reservoirs on Earth.
• Most hydrology applications involve surface water
systems, such as rivers, open-channels and
estuaries. However, groundwater and hydro
geological projects can be included in this section,
particularly with aquifer application.
• Hydrology focuses on the distribution of water in
the subsurface, surface and atmosphere, the
chemistry of that water, and the effects of climate
on the water cycle.
 HYDROLOGY

• Hydrology, particularly water flow, can affect the

local environment due to changes in water
quality and quantity.

• These changes can be man-made (e.g. a dam

release) or weather-related (flooding), or due to
a combination of both factors (rainfall runoff
caused by poor agricultural practices).
HYDROLOGICAL MAP OF INDIA
WATER RESOURCES
 WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
• UNFCCC : "Climate change" means
a change of climate which is attributed directly
or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and
which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.
• IPCC : variations in the mean state of climate or
variability of its properties in its rate, range and
magnitude that extends for a long period,
usually a decade or longer.
Interacting water and environmental processes, illustrating some couplings
between natural and engineered systems & human processes in the water
environment.

SOURCE: Courtesy of Jeff Dozier.

Influences of global hydrological cycle
in context of climate change
 Water cycle response mechanism of
climate change
• There are two kinds of driving factors effects on water cycle
system :
1.Natural water cycle system : Evaporation, Sublimation,
Condensation, Precipitation, Transpiration, Runoff,
Infiltration.
2.Binary water cycle system : The constant change of the
human society, human economic activities harder and
harder, human activities this disturbance factors gradually
strengthened the influence of water cycle in water
resources own evolution process. The interference of
human on water cycle, broke original natural water cycle
system rules and balance, make the original water cycle
system singly led by nature to a new system led by natural
and manpower.
 EFFECTS ON WATER CYCLE
• Climate changes will accelerate the global
hydrological cycle, with increase in the
surface temperature, changes in precipitation
patterns, and evapotranspiration rate.
• The spatial change in amount, intensity and
frequency of the precipitation will affect the
magnitude and frequency of stream flows;
consequently, it increases the intensity of
floods & droughts, with substantial impacts on
the water resources at local and regional
levels.
 Change in average precipitation
(1986-2005 to 2080-2100)
• According to IPCC (2008), precipitation pattern
over 20th century has shown important spatial
variability; which has decreased from 10 degree S
to 30 degree N latitude and increased in high
northern latitudes since 1970.
• In addition to this, precipitation increased around
2% between 0 degree S to 55 degree S and from 7
to 12 % from areas located between 30 degree N
to 85 degree N (IPCC, 2001).
Projected changes in global annual mean precipitation for a low
emissions scenario (left) and high emissions scenario (right). Blue
and green areas are projected to experience increases in
precipitation by the end of the century, while yellow and brown
areas are projected to experience decreases.

Source: IPCC 2013

 Climate change increases the heavy rains
and extreme droughts
• The Earth’s water cycle is highly dependent on
temperature.
• Temperature affect atmospheric water vapor
concentrations, clouds, precipitation patterns,
runoff and stream flow patterns.
• Among the most serious Earth science and
environmental policy issues confronting society
are the potential changes in the Earth’s water
cycle due to climate change.— NASA
 Climate change increases the heavy rains
and extreme droughts
• As the temperature rises in the lower atmosphere, more water
evaporates from both land and oceans and is held in the
troposphere (lower atmosphere). Warmer air can hold more water
vapour, one consequence of which is an increased frequency of
heavy rainfall events. Because of the warm air, more precipitation
is falling as rain than as ice or snow. This leads to extreme
flooding in coastal communities around the world.
• At the same time, other areas will experience drier air and drought
due to the same rise in temperatures. The warmer air that causes
increased evaporation makes the soil dry out. When rain does
come, much of the water runs off the hard ground into rivers and
streams, and the soil remains dry.
• The Palmer Drought Severity Index is a measure of soil moisture
using precipitation measurements and changes in evaporation and
is being used to monitor these issues around the world.
 Climate
change
increases
the heavy
rains and
extreme
droughts.
 Worldwide sea level rise
• Climate change-induced sea level rise will occur for
two main reasons: the expansion of the ocean as
it warms, and the increased melt from ice sheets,
ice caps and glaciers.
• Beyond the devastating impact this will have on
coastal communities and infrastructure, it also has
serious implications for the planet’s freshwater
reserves which can be contaminated by saltwater. If
this were to take place, water from aquifers would
need to be treated with an energy-intensive
process to be useful for irrigating crops or drinking.
SEA LEVEL RISE GLOBLE WARMING
Messing with the AMOC and altered
ocean circulation patterns
 Messing with the AMOC and altered
ocean circulation patterns
• There is a massive system of circulating seawater
called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Current (AMOC) - also referred to as the ‘Ocean
Conveyor Belt.’ It plays a key role in the global
climate system and so any significant alterations
to it impact everyone around the world. The
AMOC serves as the engine for the planet’s ocean
currents: the massive amount of cooler water
that sinks in the North Atlantic stirs up that entire
ocean and drives currents in the Southern and
Pacific oceans.
 Messing with the AMOC and altered
ocean circulation patterns
• “When the Atlantic turns sluggish, it has worldwide impacts:
The entire Northern Hemisphere cools, Indian and Asian
monsoon areas dry up, North Atlantic storms get amplified,
and less ocean mixing results in less plankton and other life
in the sea.— Yale Environment 360
• Rising sea temperatures and increased freshwater from
melting ice due to climate change are disrupting, weakening
and slowing this crucial current. Moorings installed in the
middle of the Atlantic back in 2004 have revealed the current
to have weakened by as much as 30 percent since 1957.
• If emissions continue to go up and global temperatures
surpass 4 degrees C, the AMOC could slow by 54% by the end
of the century, resulting in numerous and cascading effects
for global temperatures, rainfall patterns and weather
systems.
 Increasing and more severe toxic algal
blooms
• Algal blooms have been put front and centre in climate
change discussions this year as the ‘Red Tide’ off
Florida’s southwest coast has killed fish, manatees, sea
turtles, dolphins and even a whale shark, all confirmed
to have been poisoned by the toxic algal bloom. The
toxic algae worked it’s way up the coast from Sanibel
Island to Tampa Bay causing the Governor of Florida to
call a state of emergency for seven counties along the
coastline.
• “Climate change will severely affect our ability to
control blooms, and in some cases could make it near
impossible.— University of Florida and the University
of North Carolina
 Increasing and more severe toxic algal
blooms
• While algal blooms are ‘normal’ occurrences caused by runoff of nitrogen-
rich material from agriculture and farming, they don’t usually get this bad.
The increase in severity and occurrence (there have been 300 noted since
2010) in recent years is being linked to warming temperatures caused by
greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. As air and water
temperatures increase, the environment becomes more hospitable to
toxic algal blooms. This is exacerbated by extreme rainfall, which washes
even more fertilizer into waterways, and increased CO2 levels, which helps
them expand.
• As temperatures rise in freshwater bodies, like the Great Lakes, a form of
algae known as cyanobacteria flourishes. When cyanobacteria mixes with
runoff from farms and warmer waters, red tides worsen and poison
drinking water, as happened along western parts of Lake Erie.
• Droughts also intensify the blooms in freshwater areas - without fresh
rainfall, water becomes more salty and therefore falls risk to algae that
would normally only be found in the oceans.
 Coral reef ecosystems are stressed out
• Rising ocean temperatures: can cause ‘thermal stress’ to
the creatures, resulting in coral bleaching and leaving
them prone to infectious disease.
• Sea level rise: for coral near land, sea level rise can cause
a sedimentation runoff, smothering the corals.
• Changes in precipitation: increased runoff of freshwater,
sediment, and land-based pollutants contribute to algal
blooms and cause murky water conditions that reduce
light.
• Altered ocean currents: lead to changes in connectivity
and temperature regimes that contribute to a lack of food
for corals and hampers the dispersal of coral larvae.
• Ocean acidification: causes a reduction in pH levels which
decreases coral growth and structural integrity.
 Increases in Storm Intensity
• Tropical storms and
hurricanes are likely to
become more intense,
produce stronger peak
winds, produce increased
rainfall, and cause larger
storm surges because of
warming sea surface
temperatures (which can
energize these storms)
(IPCC, 2007c).
• damage infrastructure
• contaminate water supplies
• Coastal erosion
 History of this study
• In 1985, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published
the review about the impact of climate change on water resources.
• After that, the WMO put forward some test and evaluation method
and published the sensitivity analysis report that impact of climate
change on hydrology and water resources.
• In 1987, the WMO summarized the sensitivity problems in the
water resources system for the future and modern climate change.
• In order to speed up the research, the (WMO) and the (UNEP)
jointly set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) in 1988.
• The IPCC is specialized in evaluation of climate change, and it have
completed four assessment report in 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007.
The report has become the main scientific basis which international
society to know and understand the problem of climate change.
 Integration of RS, GIS, DEM and
Hydrological Models

GIS
RS

DEM HMS
 Integration of RS, GIS, DEM and
Hydrological Models
• Hydrological model is a good tool for understanding
and managing phenomena related to hydrological
processes.
• RS provides essential inputs for hydrologic models.
• GIS provides a Platform for Simulation of Hydrological
Model.
• RS, GIS & DEM combined with mathematical models
provide a convenient platform for handling , compiling,
and presenting large amounts of spatial data essential
to river basin management and the use of GIS makes
the models accessible to a broad range of users.
 Applications of Remote Sensing and GIS
in Hydrology
• Remote Sensing and GIS technologies are well-established tools and are
routinely used in applied hydrology dynamics analyses.
• Abilities of remote sensing technology in hydrology are to measure
spatial, spectral, and temporal information and provide data on the
state of the earth's surface.
• It provides observation of changes in hydrological states, which vary over
both time and space that can be used to monitor hydrological conditions
and changes.
• Sensors used for hydrological applications cover a broad range of
electromagnetic spectrum. Both active sensors that send a pulse and
measure the return pulse (like radar, microwave etc.) and passive sensors
that measure emissions or reflectance from natural sources (like Sun,
thermal energy of the body) are used. Sensors can provide data on
reflective, thermal and dielectric properties of earth's surface.
• Remote sensing techniques indirectly measure hydrological variables, so
the electromagnetic variables measured by remote sensing have to be
related to hydrological variables empirically or with transfer functions.
 Applications of Remote Sensing and
GIS in Hydrology
 Remote sensing applications in hydrology that
are being used today are mainly in:
• Precipitation estimation
• Runoff computations
• Snow hydrology applications
• Evapotranspiration over land surface
• Evaluation of soil moisture content
• Water quality modelling
• Watershed management
• Groundwater identification and estimation
• Hydrological modelling
 GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
• Numerical models (GCMs), representing
physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean,
cryosphere and land surface, are the most
advanced tools currently available for
simulating the response of the global climate
system to increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations.
• GCMs are the most advanced tools available
for simulation of the current global climate
and future climate scenario projection.
 GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
• The main objective of a GCM is to predict climate
with a temporal scale of years, having a very
coarse spatial resolution, low relevance of initial
conditions, having a high relevance of clouds,
radiation, surface and ocean dynamics.

• GCMs capture only coarse resolution typically

around 2–3°and smoothen the local variations in
climate. Therefore, they are not adapted to
identify the local climate which occurs at much
smaller scales or river basin scales.
 GCM
• The available
coupled
Atmosphere-
Ocean General
Circulation
Models
(AOGCMs) are
HadCM3,
HadGEM1, GFDL-
CM2.1, CCSM3,
CGCM3.1, CSIRO-
MK3.5 and
ECHAM5.
 Climate-Hydrology-assessment chain
• Climate modelling: Hydrological impacts are expected on widely
different scales. This fact places high demands on the climate models
that need to reproduce both large-scale synoptic patterns (e.g.,
atmospheric teleconnections) and small-scale local variability (e.g.,
short-duration precipitation extremes).
• Tailoring and hydrological modelling: Tailoring (bias-adjustment
and/or downscaling) of the climate model output prior to hydrological
simulation is critical. The methods used need to be highly flexible and
applied at the right scales in time and space, may be sensitive to the
choice of reference data, and may modify CC signals. Hydrological
impacts are further sensitive to geographical and meteorological data
used in the modelling process.
• Impact assessment: CC will undoubtedly play a major role in shaping
future hydrology at all scales. However, these changes may be equalled
or even exceeded by the impacts of man-made interventions related to
e.g., urbanization, infrastructure, air pollution emissions, agricultural
practices, and hydropower management.
Climate-Hydrology-assessment chain
 Climate-Hydrology-assessment chain
• Climate modelling : AOGCMs are used to make
future climate projections, which are commonly
dynamically downscaled by RCMs.
• Tailoring and hydrological modelling : Simulations
with hydrological models, commonly preceded by
tailoring of the GCM or RCM output. This tailoring
may include bias-adjustment and/or downscaling.
• Impact assessment :The results are post-processed
in statistical analysis, to be useful as decision
support to various societal sectors. They are also
analysed to attribute hydrological processes and
assess the importance of CC in relation to other
changes, in order to optimize adaptation measures.
 Hydrological Models
• VIC MODEL
(Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model)
• WATBAL
(water balance model)
• WEAP
(The Water Evaluation and Planning)
• BASINS-CAT
(Better Assessment Science Integrating point and non-
point Sources)
• EPIC
(Erosion/Productivity Impact Calculator)
 Hydrological Models
• SWRRB
(Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins)
• PRZM
(Pesticide Root Zone Management model)
• AGNPS
(Agricultural Non-Point Source pollution model)
• SWAT
(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)
• Primary inputs for all these models can be obtained
from remote sensing and GIS.
 Hydrological Models
• STORM
(Storage Treatment Overflow Runoff Model)
• SWMM
(Storm Water Management Model)
• DR3M-QUAL
(Distributed Routing, Rainfall, Runoff Model –Quality)
• CREAMS
(Chemical, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural
Management Systems)
• GLEAMS
(Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural
Management Systems model)
 Hydrological variables and the current and planned satellite
remote sensing missions that can be used to estimate them.
Hydrological Variable Missions / Instruments Launch Year

Rainfall, Snowfall GPM 2014

Terra/MODIS 1999
Aqua/MODIS 2013
Evaporation Suomi/VIIRS 2002
Landsat 8 2013
Landsat 9 2023

2021
Runoff SWOT

Snow Cover Terra/MODIS 1999

Aqua/MODIS 2002
Suomi/VIIRS 2013

Snow Density, Depth, or GCOM-W/AMSR2 2012

Water Equivalent SMOS 2009
SMAP (radiometer) 2015
 Hydrological variables and the current and planned satellite
remote sensing missions that can be used to estimate them.
Hydrological Variable Missions / Instruments Launch Year

Water Vapour Aqua/AIRS 2002

Surface Soil Moisture SMOS 2009

SMAP(radiometer) 2015
ASCAT 2006
GCOM-W/AMSR2 2012
Sentinel-1A 2014
Sentinel-1B 2016
2021
Deep Soil Moisture Biomass

Surface Water Elevation Jason-3 2016

SARAL 2013
SWOT 2021
ICESat-2 2018
Global Precipitation Measurement Mission
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO IN INDIA
• IPCC (2007a) projected that temperature increase
by the end of this century is expected to be in the
range of 1.8 to 4.0°C. For the Indian region (South
Asia), the IPCC projected 0.5 to 1.2°C rise in
temperature by 2020, 0.88 to 3.16°C by 2050 and
1.56 to 5.44°C by 2080, depending on the future
development scenario.
• IPCC (2007a,b,c) also notes the climate
projections over India indicate that temperature
rises are likely to be around 3°C and rainfall
increase is expected to be around 10–20% over
Central India by the end of this century.
 UNDP Report
• In its 2007-08 developmental report UNDP has
highlighted the effect of climate change on different
regions of the world covering all the aspects including
water availability, rising sea level, flooding, biodiversity,
human health, etc.
• The flow of the Indus, which receives nearly 90% of its
water from upper mountain catchments, could decline by
as much as 70% by 2080.
• The Ganges could lose two-thirds of its July–September
flow, causing water shortages for over 500 million people
and one-third of India’s irrigated land area.
• Projections for the Brahmaputra point to reduced flows
of between 14 & 20% by 2050.
 World Climate Impacts Assessment
and Response Strategies Programme
• Testing methodologies for assessments of impacts
of climate change and sea level rise.
• Promoting and improving coordination of national
climate impact and response strategies programmes
• Improving techniques for making inventories of
sources and sinks of GHGs.
• Developing national strategies for responding to
climate fluctuations and change.
• Improving dissemination of accurate, complete and
timely information to governments and the public.
• Assessing air quality and air pollution mitigation
strategies.
 International Hydrology Programme
• The IHP is one of the important programme for freshwater
under natural sciences sector of UNESCO.
• Adapting to the Impacts of Global Changes in River Basins
and Aquifer Systems :
• Focal area-1.1: Global changes and feedback mechanisms of
hydrological processes in stressed Systems
• Focal area-1.2: Climate change impacts on the hydrological
cycle and consequent impact on water resources
• Focal area-1.3: Hydro-hazards, hydrological extremes and
water-related disasters
• Focal area-1.4: Managing groundwater systems’ response to
global changes
• Focal area-1.5: Global change and climate variability in arid
and semi-arid regions
 SOURCES
• https://www.climate-policy-watcher.org/forest-
meteorology/impact-of-climate-change-on-hydrology-and-water-
resources.html
• http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tp-climate-change-water.html
• http://wgbis.ces.iisc.ernet.in/energy/monograph1/Biblio2.html
• https://www.ipcc-data.org/index.html
• https://pmm.nasa.gov/GPM
• http://www.civil.iisc.ernet.in/~nagesh
• https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Downscaling-general-
circulation-model-output%3A-a-of-Wilby-
Wigley/8547c090bf928516526eeb83b10c9f6b3efe5be9
• https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-
climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content
 SOURCES
• https://www.waterdocs.ca/water-
talk/2018/9/19/5-ways-climate-change-
impacts-water
• https://www.nature.com/news/climate-
change-is-making-algal-blooms-worse-
1.21884
• http://climateilluminated.com/GCM_models/s
lides/1_GCM_models.html
THANK YOU.