6.

Discrete Probability Distributions Random Variables

A probability distribution is like a relative A random variable assigns a real number to every
frequency distribution. However, instead of possible outcome or event in an experiment.
describing the past, it is used to provide estimates X = number of refrigerators sold during the
of the likelihood of future events. day Discrete random variables can assume only
• Probability distributions can be described by a finite or limited set of values.
measures of location and dispersion so we show Continuous random variables can assume any
how to compute a distribution’s mean, variance, one of an infinite set of values.
and standard deviation.
• We also discuss two frequently occurring discrete
probability distributions: the binomial and Poisson.
WHAT IS A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION?
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION A listing of all the
outcomes of an experiment and the probability
associated with each outcome.
• Defines or describes the likelihoods for a range of
possible future outcomes.
CHARACTERISTICS
OFAPROBABILITYDISTRIBUTION
• Theprobability of a particular outcome is between
0 and 1 inclusive.
• Theoutcomesaremutually exclusive.
• The list of outcomes is exhaustive. So the sum of
the probabilities of the outcomes is equal to 1.
EXAMPLE
• Suppose we are interested in the number of
heads showing face up on three tosses of a coin.
This is the experiment. The possible results are
zero heads, one head, two heads, and three heads.
What is the probability distribution for the number of
heads?
SOLUTION Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random
• There are eight possible outcomes. We use the Variable
multiplication formula for counting outcomes. There For discrete random variables a probability is
are (2)(2)(2) or 8 possible results. assigned to each event.
The students in Pat Shannon’s statistics class have
just completed a quiz of five algebra problems. The
distribution of correct scores is given in the
following table:

The Probability Distribution follows all three

rules:
1. Events are mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive.
2. Individual probability values are between 0 and
1. 2-5
3. Total of all probability values equals 1
 Probability Distribution of a Continuous
Random Variable
Since random variables can take on an infinite
number of values, the fundamental rules for
continuous random variables must be modified.
◼ The sum of the probability values must still
equal 1.
◼ The probability of each individual value of
the random variable occurring must equal 0 or
the sum would be infinitely large.
The probability distribution is defined by a
continuous mathematical function called the
probability density function or just the probability
function. 2-14
◼ This is represented by f (X).
For Dr. Shannon’s class:

Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution

For a discrete probability distribution the variance
can be computed by:
The Binomial Distribution
◼ Many business experiments can be
characterized by the Bernoulli process.
◼ The Bernoulli process is described by the
binomial probability distribution.
1. Each trial has only two possible
outcomes.
2. The probability of each outcome stays the
same from one trial to the next.
 3. The trials are statistically independent. ◼ Every hour a random sample of 5 transistors is
4. The number of trials is a positive integer. taken.
The binomial distribution is used to find the ◼ The probability of one transistor being defective
probability of a specific number of successes in n is 0.15. So
trials. What is the probability of finding 3, 4, or 5
defective? n = 5, p = 0.15, and r = 3, 4, or 5
We need to know: We could use the formula to solve this problem, but
n = number of trials using the table is easier.
p = the probability of success on any single
trial
We let
r = number of successes
q = 1 – p = the probability of a failure

MSA Electronics is experimenting with the

manufacture of a new transistor.
The mean and variance of the distribution are both ◼ Shifting the mean does not change the shape of
. the distribution.
Expected value =  Variance =  ◼ Values on the X axis are measured in the
number of standard deviations away from the
We can use Appendix C to find Poisson mean.
probabilities. Suppose that λ = 2. Some probability ◼ As the standard deviation becomes larger, the
calculations are: curve flattens.
◼ As the standard deviation becomes smaller, the
curve becomes steeper.

Exponential and Poisson Together

◼ If the number of occurrences per time period
follows a Poisson distribution, then the time
between occurrences follows an exponential
distribution:
◼ Suppose the number of phone calls at a
service center followed a Poisson
distribution with a mean of 10 calls per hour. Using the Standard Normal Table
◼ Then the time between each phone call Step 1 Convert the normal distribution into a
would be exponentially distributed with a normal distribution. standard
mean time between calls of 6 minutes (1/10 ◼ A standard normal distribution has a mean of 0
hour). and a standard deviation of 1
7. ◼ The new standard random variable is Z
The Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is the one of the most
popular and useful continuous probability where =
distributions. X −   X = value of the random variable we want
◼ The formula for the probability density to measure
function is rather complex: µ = mean of the distribution
 = standard deviation of the distribution
Z = number of standard deviations from X to the
mean, µ
◼The normal distribution is specified completely
when we know the mean, µ, and the standard
deviation,  .
◼ The normal distribution is symmetrical, with the
midpoint representing the mean.
Haynes Construction Company
Haynes builds three- and four-unit apartment buildings
(called triplexes and quadraplexes, respectively).
◼ Total construction time follows a normal distribution.
◼ For triplexes, µ = 100 days and  = 20 days.
◼ Contract calls for completion in 125 days, and late
completion will incur a severe penalty fee.
◼ What is the probability of completing in 125 days?

Suppose that completion of a triplex in 75 days or less

will earn a bonus of $5,000.
What is the probability that Haynes will get the bonus?
The Empirical Rule
For a normally distributed random variable with mean µ
and standard deviation  , then
1. About 68% of values will be within ±1 of the mean.
2. About 95.4% of values will be within ±2 of the
mean. The Exponential Distribution
3. About 99.7% of values will be within ±3 of the ◼ The the exponential distribution (also called
mean. negative exponential distribution) is a continuous
distribution often used in queuing models to describe
the time required to service a customer. Its probability
function is given by:

The F Distribution
◼ It is a continuous probability distribution.
◼ The F statistic is the ratio of two sample variances.
◼ F distributions have two sets of degrees of freedom
◼ Degrees of freedom are based on sample size and Arnold’s Muffler Shop
used to calculate the numerator and denominator of ◼ Arnold’s Muffler Shop installs new mufflers on
the ratio. automobiles and small trucks.
df1 = degrees of freedom for the numerator ◼ The mechanic can install 3 new mufflers per hour.
df2 = degrees of freedom for the denominator ◼ Service time is exponentially distributed.
◼ The probabilities of large values of F are very small.
What is the probability that the time to install a new
muffler would be ½ hour or less?
Here:
X = Exponentially distributed service time
µ = average number of units the served per time period
= 3 per hour
t = ½ hour = 0.5hour