Predictive Insights Real-Time Decision Making in Supply Chain Management
Predictive Insights Real-Time Decision Making in Supply Chain Management
decision making. To do this, decision-makers use different decision-making in SCM. This paper will seek to illustrate the
evaluations that can be complemented by a proper understanding usefulness of the HLXM for improving different supply chain
of decision-making procedures and their effects [7]. In other management tasks like demand forecasting, inventory
words, and quite simply, clear and easily consumable information management, logistics optimization and supplier performance. A
can accelerate swift decision-making. The high transparency of detailed comparison with traditional and other modern ML models
their operation renders AI approaches particularly useful in demonstrates how the HLXM makes a major difference in making
decision support systems, causing decision takers to be able to act the whole process more operational efficient, less costly and be
rapidly in response to changes [8]. Figure 1 shows the benefits of more customer satisfying.
predictive analytics.
II. RELATED STUDY
Reduced Costs
The best appropriate approach in the Setting of Chilean marine
Faster Data Processing
ports in the Supply Chain Management (SCM) to introduce with
in Supply Chain using the Blockchain Technology (BT) [11]. It
discovers and classifies essential input variables that have an
Risk Prediction
Benefits
impact on the adoption of BT using the Fuzzy Logarithmic
of Method of Additive Weights (LMAW) and Double Normalization
Reduced Downtime
Predictive based Multiple Aggregation Methods (DNMA). The findings
Analytics underscore the importance of effective risk mitigation, more
Boost Production Capacity
robust supply chain processes, and safer transactions. It uses an
MCDA hybrid approach to support decision making under
Extend Equipment Life uncertainty and ports as good examples to integrate BT and the
outcomes of this method contribute to the promotion of more
Improved Resource Management efficient operations to be integrated in all Chilean ports using the
BT for SCM.
Figure 1. Benefits of Predictive Analytics Industry 4.0 leads to huge technical leaps for all links in the
value chain. Previous research has primarily focused on using
Efficiency, speed, quality and flexibility improvements are Industry 4.0 in manufacturing but fallen short in how it impacts on
always in-demand in the industry. And it seems like more and decision-making and adaptation practices to take full advantages
more money is being poured into R&D to develop the smart TC and remedies which is providing data from the apparel and textile
factory of tomorrow, which in turn is having a trickle-down effect industries [12]. Through a systematic literature survey of 61
on the rest of the textile sector [9]. This is all intellectual but research papers published between 2014 and 2019 in Scopus, we
routine work, which in the smart factory of the future will be identified five key decision-making trends: data-driven, real-time,
eliminated to the robotization of work processes. As a result, decentralized, integrated, and sustainable approaches. Among its
working conditions will improve, new jobs will be created and recommendations for the future of the textile industry is
overall efficiency will increase. Unfortunately, the types of addressing problems resulting from digitization, utilization of
demand planning that result from traditional supply chain automation in the context of Industry 4.0 tools, and the need for
management seldom survive the logistical challenges, and demand social as well as environmental responsibility.
vagaries and supply breaks with which global commerce is fraught
[10]. This has caused a wave of interest in addressing such issues The digital era studies of retail supply chains by comparing
utilizing Cutting-edge ML and DL techniques. what managers were responsible for doing before and during
COVID-19, illuminating about how human decision-making has
Hybrid LeNet-Xception Model was considered as a evolved from pre-digital to the digital era in retail supply chains
breakthrough in implementing ML and DL in SCM. HLXM, one [13]. The utility of grounded theory was illustrated through
of these pre-configured models, provides a depth of expertise in application to the 25 in-depth interviews with retail supply chain
supply chain data -with far greater accuracy than the Detection- executives and four key lessons learned are established. Without
ML model - that can capture both simple and complex patterns in doubt, management discretion is an upward trend throughout the
supply chain data. This new hybrid solution makes of both internal supply chain. The second undoubtedly cuts both ways, and the
data (inventory, sales, delivery) that is mixed with external heart is now analytics and judgement together as the consistent
sources like market stats, supplier data, weather forecasts and decision-making premise. Ultimately, the result is the integrative
economic information. This HLXM makes these wide data framework, the end point of this research effort. They identify
sources integrated with each other to solve the issues of real-time what is required for successful analytics and AI rollouts the
methods paves the way for future work in this field to know how Market trends data such as industry-wide sales trends, consumer
to work human judgement alongside analytics to make online preferences, and competitor activities. Information about supplier
shopping decisions correctly. reliability, lead times, lot sizes, and historical performance is
supplier data. Logistics and transportation are severely impacted
The logistics sector is built on the basis of supply chain by inclement weather, which lead to weather forecast predictions.
management, which manages goods from suppliers to the final Economic indicators include GDP growth rates, inflation rates,
customers, enabling the logistics sector to internationalize its and unemployment rates to give perspectives on the broader
capacity for competition and profitability. Digital strategies economy context that impact demand/supply dynamics in supply
enhance decision-making by using the latest technology and chain. Figure 2 shows the architecture of proposed model.
understanding stakeholders more. Civilization around the world
has been flowing through businesses, customers, and economic Data Cleaning
connections have stirred well Gemini technology has flourished.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) renders decision algorithms and Handling Missing Values
process automation, and the mobile Internet makes
communication uninterrupted [14]. Big data is ideal for reviewing Handling Missing Value is as important in data cleaning to
enormous sets, cloud computing lets the exchanging data between make sure about the accuracy and trust-ability of the dataset.
them, and augmented reality supports appreciate of processes. Missing values can handle a number of sources - data entry errors,
Blockchain ensures transactions security, and the Internet of untracked transactions, system errors, etc. For dealing with
Things helps to perform remote system administration. missing values, either they are imputed by their mean, mode
values or they are imputed by prediction. Mean/Median
The Agricultural Supply Chain (ASC) is of great significance imputation - This method involves replacing the missing
in emerging economies like China, Pakistan, and India. When it numerical data with the mean value (mean) or most frequent value
comes to implementing state-of-the-art supply chain optimization (mode) of the feature it belongs to, ensuring that the imputed value
technology, established economies have been far ahead of to represent the central tendency of the data. Mode imputation is
emerging economies like Blockchain and AI. This delay in all used in the case of categorical data. Predictive imputation makes
parts of the supply chain has been the root cause of the non- an educated guess with the help of machine learning models from
transparency, non-efficiency, post-harvest operation problems and the relationships we see among other features. We customize the
non-market participation etc. To identify significant barriers, such features with the data which is even better most of the times as it
as a lack of post-harvest facilities, and the high need for better takes care of data inherent data patterns. With enough thought
market data systems for farmers [15]. They suggested an about the column and how we handled the missing values we
intelligent decision-making framework that overcomes these allow it to be created to a level that is best for the data, ensuring
challenges by introducing traceability in the supply chain and that bias has been minimized and that the dataset remains robust
empowering the farmers in managing the post-harvesting for further analysis.
processes. They found this arises out to provide key information
for not just the entire farming community or the politicians but for
that this can further generate ground for more studies in this
imperative field.
III. METHODOLOGY
Data Source
Data Source
Normalizing and Standardizing Data
Feature Map
Feature Engineering does not only mean creating new features;
Input
Feature Map
Feature Map Feature Map
this is a very important value that adds a lot of old insights, and
new patterns from the model. Moving averages have been around
Xception Model
for a long time and are used to smoothen out the short-term clutter
and point out the long-term trends or cycles in time-series data. A
moving average of sales data helps to smooth out the data and can
Hybrid Stratergy
reveal an underlying trend - the noise is reduced. Lagged variables
refer to using previous values of a feature to predict the current or
future values. Good use of lagged variables - previous sales
Figure 2. Architecture of Proposed Model figures are often therein used to predict future sales programmed
for seasonality and commonality in box management. Interaction
Removing Duplicates and Outliers terms are the variables that are constructed by combining two or
more variables together to capture the combined effect of those
Duplicates are basically the same data point being recorded variables on the dependent variable.
multiple times, which could wrongly project in the analysis and
may switch conclusions to another direction. Duplicate detection Using Domain Knowledge
and deduplication is all about comparing data points against the
rest and removing redundant elements so that one date point is the Converting raw data into more advanced features based on
only one for one record. At the same time, outliers are values that domain knowledge is a crucial part of feature engineering which
are tremendously out of the rest values. They can occur due to in turn play a key role in shaping the data in a way that is useful
errors in inputting data, errors in measurement, or simply and informative for the model. However, domain experts can give
infrequent events. Outliers in database may cause statistical us valuable hints about what are the most important features that
analysis to skew for models to get trained on wrong data, due to affect the outcomes and are there any interactions between them.
which wrong predictions will follow. For example, in supply chain management, domain knowledge
can be employed in identification of relevant variables like lead
times, order quantities, supplier reliability, and seasonality effects.
Understanding the business context helps to focus on some of the
more complex parts of the supply chain process and this is what
Data Quality and Consistency are addressed with De- quantities, supplier reliability, seasonality effects etc. Being aware
duplication and outlier removal. Analyzing duplicate & outliers of the business context is what leads to building the features
preventing skewed analysis during model building when the catering to supply chain processes intricacies. For example,
model is trained for output predictions. Normalization & knowing the variability of supplier lead time helps to determine
Standardization: These techniques help the data to often scale its and manage supply chain risks. Customer demand elasticity
feature that in turn, helps in training fast of the model. Feature characteristics reflect price or promotional sensitivity. By doing
engineering can help to extract new features that can represent so, the model is forced to incorporate these specific domain
complex relationships and the creation of features is known to knowledge considerations which naturally encode practical and
enhance the predictive capability and can help increase the real-world knowledge resulting in accurate and actionable
accuracy and predictability of the supply chain models. predictions.
Forecasted
Forecasted Stock Stock
Actual Demand Improvemen Stockouts Stockouts
Date Demand Product Level Level
Demand (Traditional t (%) Before After
(HLXM) ID Before After
Model) HLXM HLXM
HLXM HLXM
1/1/2024 500 450 495 10 4/10/1900 1000 800 5 2
1/2/2024 600 580 590 1.72 4/11/1900 500 450 3 1
1/3/2024 700 670 695 3.73 4/12/1900 1200 1000 4 1
4/13/1900 800 700 6 2
1/4/2024 800 750 790 5.33 4/14/1900 900 850 2 1
1/5/2024 650 630 645 2.38
The effect of the HLXM model on the efficiency of inventory
Accuracy comparison of demand forecasting in Table 1 and management is shown in Table 2 and Figure 4 for five different
Figure 3 for traditional with HLXM model for five days in early product IDs. Stock levels pre- and post-HLXM are decreased
2024. The proposed HLXM model always surpasses the showcases lower than median inventory post-implementation In
conventional model, with increase by 1.72% to 10%. Such the second case, stockouts go way down once HLXM is
findings underscore the importance of incorporating state-of-the- implemented, thus enhancing inventory control and minimizing
art machine learning techniques such as HLXM on demand supply disruptions. The results indicate the success of more
forecasting as it can deliver more accurate prediction results advanced ML analytics in bettering inventory management,
compare to traditional approaches. adjusting stock levels, and reducing stockouts, and subsequently,
in improving operational efficiency and customer satisfaction by
offering products that are more available.
Figure 3. Actual vs Forecasted Demand Figure 4. Stock Levels and Stockouts Before and After
HLXM
Domain knowledge can be used to generate useful features from
raw data and enables the model to make sense of the data. Domain LeNet-5 is one of the early convolutional neural network
experts for identifying high impact features and their interactions. architectures capable of handling simple tasks and small data-set
For instance, in the case of supply chain management, domain due to its simplicity and efficiency. The model is starting with the
knowledge would consider factors like lead times, order thing called the input layer and, mainly to reshape the data to fit
Figure 6. On-Time Delivery and Lead Time Variability Figure 7. Decision Accuracy and Improvement
demonstration of reduction of supplier fidelity to the buyers and “Mobile edge computing for efficient energy management systems”, book
title, Human-Assisted Intelligent Computing, IOP Publishing Ltd 2023
reduction of delivery delays. In a nutshell, as the HLXM has been
Pages 16-1 to 16-17, 2023 https://doi.org/10.1088/978-0-7503-4801-0ch16.
designed to overcome multiple SCM related hurdles, it provides
an extensive solution as a whole to timely and error free decision [13] Rebekah I. Brau, et al. (2024). "Utilizing people, analytics, and AI for
decision making in the digitalized retail supply chain", JBL, 45, e12355,
making. The process can be further improved to integrate more DOI: 10.1111/jbl.12355
varied and granular input data, such as real-time IOT sensor data
as well as social media sentiment analysis for deeper model [14] R. Mishra, V. V. Desai, R. Krishnamoorthy, M. A. Begum, J. Ranga and S.
N. Taqui, "Energy-Efficient IoT with Deep Learning: Optimizing Resource
performance. Furthermore, future research could investigate Allocation in Smart Grids," 2023 9th International Conference on Smart
whether the performance of SCM systems could be improved by Structures and Systems (ICSSS), CHENNAI, India, 2023, pp. 1-6, doi:
applying reinforcement learning to these systems. Increases in 10.1109/ICSSS58085.2023.10407067.
computational efficiency and scalability will be essential for [15] T. Kalimuthu, et al., (2024), "Intelligent decision-making framework for
implementing the HLXM in larger, more complex supply chains. agriculture supply chain in emerging economies: Research opportunities
and challenges", CEA, Volume 219, 108766, ISSN 0168-1699, DOI:
10.1016/j.compag.2024.108766
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