SYSTEMS SIMULATION 1 (SSG 418), 2019/2020 SESSION

Faculty: ENGINEERING
Department: SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
Session: 2019/2020
Semester: First
Course Code: SSG 418
Title of Course: Systems Simulation 1
Course Units: 2 units
Course Lecturer: Dr. Kehinde Oluwole OROLU

Teaching Schedule: Thursday, 12Pm – 2:00 pm

Venue: SSG Yr 4 Class

COURSE RESOURCES
Recommended Textbooks
1. Banks, J., Carson, J. S., Nelson, B. L., and Nicol, D. M., Discrete-Event System
Simulation, 5th edition, Prentice-Hall, 2010.
2. Devendra K. Chaturvedi, Modelling and Simulation of Systems Using Matlab and
Simulink, CRC Press 2010

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 Lecture 1. Introduction to System Simulation
What is a system?
A system is a construct or collection of different elements that together produce results not
obtainable by the elements alone.
The elements can include people, hardware, software, facilities, policies, documents — all things
required to produce system - level qualities, properties, characteristics, functions, behaviour, and
performance. Importantly, the value of the system as a whole is the relationship among the parts.

WAYS TO STUDY A SYSTEM

1. The actual system versus a model of the system
2. A physical model versus mathematical model
3. Analytical solution of a mathematical model versus Simulation solution

Fig 1. Ways to study a system

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Experimentation: This is the first technique humans use to learn about (and maybe change) their
environment.

Issues with experimentation

In many cases, experimentation is not a feasible solution due to

1. Ethics - Morally/ethically unacceptable e.g. assessing the extent of radiation
dispersion following a particular catastrophic failure at some nuclear generation
facility, or Human Cloning
2. Risks i.e. too dangerous e.g. exploring alternate strategies for controlling a nuclear
reactor, we cannot study spread of an epidemic or fire evacuation in the classroom)

3. Cost e.g. determining the performance benefit likely to be achieved by upgrading the
hardware at all the switch nodes of a large data communications network , or studying
every possible configuration in the classroom).

4. Too time consuming (determining the ecological impact of an extended deer hunting
season, implemented over several consecutive years, on the excessive deer population
in a particular geographical region)

5. Too disruptive (evaluating the effectiveness of a proposed grid of one way streets
within the downtown core of an urban area)
6. Irreversible e.g. investigating the impact of a fiscal policy change on the economy of a
country

7. In some other cases, experimentation is simply not possible (e.g. we cannot manipulate
a star to understand its gravitational field; we cannot experiment on our classroom if
the building still does not exist)

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What is a model?
A model is a representation of an event and/or things that is real (a case study) or contrived (a use
- case). It can be a representation of an actual system. It can be something used in lieu of the real
thing to better understand a certain aspect about that thing. To produce a model you must abstract
from reality a description of a vibrant system. The model can depict the system at some point of
abstraction or at multiple levels of the abstraction with the goal of representing the system in a
mathematically reliable fashion.

What is simulation?
Definitions of simulation range from:
- A method for implementing a model over time
- A technique for testing, analysis, or training in which real - world systems are used, or
where real - world and conceptual systems are reproduced by a model
- An unobtrusive scientific method of inquiry involving experiments with a model rather
than with the portion of reality that the model represents
- A methodology for extracting information from a model by observing the behaviour of
the model as it is executed
- An applied methodology that can describe the behaviour of a system using either a
mathematical model or a symbolic model.
- The imitation of the operation of a real - world process or system over a period of time.

Advantages of Modelling and simulation

1. Decisions can be checked artificially. This enhances the ability to choose correctly by
testing every aspect of a proposed change without committing additional resources
2. The same model can be reused multiple times.
3. It compresses and expands time to allow the user to speed up or slow - down behaviour
or phenomena to facilitate in - depth research
4. Simulations are easier to create and use than many analytical techniques, and they need
fewer simplifications.
5. The rules used to define the model’s behaviour can be modified easily.
6. During execution of a simulation, we can experiment with varied special cases.

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 7. The user can interact with the simulator, allowing analysis of such interactions.
8. Simulation results in shorter design-cycle times and reduced requirements for initial
resource investment.
9. Simulation provides economic benefits: Research and Development cycles can be
improved.
10. The original entity is not affected by the study, and it can continue to be used.
11. It helps to diagnose problems by understanding the interaction among variables that
make up complex systems
12. It helps to identify constraints by reviewing delays on process, information, materials
to ascertain whether or not the constraint is the effect or cause
13. It helps to develop understanding by observing how a system operates rather than
predictions about how it will operate
14. It helps to visualize the plan with the use of animation to observe the system or
organization actually operating
15. It helps to prepare for change by answering the “ what if ” in the design or modification
of the system
16. A simulated study costs much less than the cost of changing or modifying a system
17. better training can be done less expensively and with less disruption than on - the - job
training
18. it helps to specify requirements for a system design that can be modified to reach the
desired goal

Disadvantages of Simulation
1. Model building requires special training
2. Simulation results are often difficult to interpret. Most simulation outputs are random
variables - based on random inputs – so it can be hard to distinguish whether an
observation is the result of system inter-relationship or randomness
3. Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive

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 WHEN IS SIMULATION NOT APPROPRIATE
Simulation is not appropriate when:
1. The problem can be solved by common sense
2. The problem can be solved analytically
3. It is less expensive to perform direct experiments
4. Costs of modeling and simulation exceed savings
5. Resources or time are not available
6. Lack of necessary data
7. System is very complex or cannot be defined

APPLICATIONS OF SIMULATION

Manufacturing Applications
1. Analysis of electronics assembly operations
2. Design and evaluation of a selective assembly station for high precision scroll compressor
shells.
3. Comparison of dispatching rules for semiconductor manufacturing using large facility
models.
4. Evaluation of cluster tool throughput for thin-film head production.
5. Determining optimal lot size for a semiconductor backend factory.
6. Optimization of cycle time and utilization in semiconductor test manufacturing.
7. Analysis of storage and retrieval strategies in a warehouse.
8. Investigation of dynamics in a service oriented supply chain.
9. Model for an Army chemical munitions disposal facility.

Semiconductor Manufacturing
1. Comparison of dispatching rules using large-facility models.
2. The corrupting influence of variability.
3. A new lot-release rule for wafer fabs.
4. Assessment of potential gains in productivity due to proactive retied management.
5. Comparison of a 200 mm and 300 mm X-ray lithography cell.
6. Capacity planning with time constraints between operations.
7. 300 mm logistic system risk reduction.

Construction Engineering
1. Construction of a dam embankment
2. Trench less renewal of underground urban infrastructures
3. Activity scheduling in a dynamic, multi-project setting
4. Investigation of the structural steel erection process

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 5. Special purpose template for utility tunnel construction
Military Applications
1. Modeling leadership effects and recruit type in an Army recruiting station.
2. Design and test of an intelligent controller for autonomous underwater vehicles.
3. Modeling military requirements for non-war fighting operations.
4. Multi-trajectory performance for varying scenario sizes.
5. Using adaptive agents in U.S. Air Force retention.

Logistics, Transportation and Distribution Applications

1. Evaluating the potential benefits of a rail-traffic planning algorithm.
2. Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance.
3. Parametric Modeling in rail-capacity planning.
4. Analysis of passenger flows in an airport terminal.
5. Proactive flight-schedule evaluation.
6. Logistic issues in autonomous food production systems for extended duration space
exploration.
7. Sizing industrial rail-car fleets.
8. Production distribution in newspaper industry.
9. Design of a toll plaza
10. Choosing between rental-car locations.
11. Quick response replenishment.

Business Process Simulation

1. Impact of connection bank redesign on airport gate assignment.
2. Product development program planning.
3. Reconciliation of business and system modeling.
4. Personal forecasting and strategic workforce planning.

Human Systems
1. Modeling human performance in complex systems.
2. Studying the human element in-out traffic control.

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 STEPS IN SIMULATION STUDY
PHASE STEP
1. Problem formulation: statement of the problem
PHASE 1 2. Setting of objectives and overall design: questions to be answered by
the simulation
PHASE 2 3. Model conceptualization: abstract the essential features of the
problem, select and modify basic assumptions that characterize the
system, start with a simple model, enrich and elaborate the model
4. Data collection: start early because it may take a lot of time
5. Model translation: programming
6. Verification: is the computer program functioning properly
7. Validation: does the model accurately represent the system

PHASE 3 8. Experimental design: which alternatives (designs) to simulate

9. Production runs and analysis: to estimate measures of performance
for the system designs that have been simulated. Measures of
performance may depend on statistical analysis, e.g.: average,
probability, frequency, etc.
10. More runs? a sufficient number is needed to guarantee statistical
accuracy

PHASE 4 11. Documentation

12. Implementation

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 Lecture 2 - System Modelling

What is a system?
A system is a construct or collection of different elements that together produce results not
obtainable by the elements alone.

The elements can include people, hardware, software, facilities, policies, documents — all things
required to produce system-level qualities, properties, characteristics, functions, behaviour, and
performance. Importantly, the value of the system as a whole is the relationship between the parts.

Types of Systems
1. Discrete System – This is a system in which the variables change instantaneously at
separate points in time.
2. Continuous System: - This is a system where the state variables change continuously with
respect to time.

SYSTEM COMPONENTS
1. Entity: Object of interest in the system
2. Attribute: Property of an entity
3. State: The collection of variables necessary to describe the system at a particular
time, relative to the objectives of the study
4. Activity: An action that takes place for specified length and changes the state of the system
5. Event: An instantaneous occurrence that may change the state of the system

Table 1: Examples of systems components

System Entities Attributes Activities Events State Variables

Railway Passengers Origin, Traveling Arrival at Number of

destination station, arrival passengers
at the waiting at each
destination station

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 Production Machines Speed, Welding, Breakdown Status of
capacity, stamping machines (busy,
breakdown idle, shutdown)
rate
Communications Messages Length, Transmitting Arrival at Number of
destination destination packets waiting
to be transmitted

Inventory Warehouse Capacity Withdrawal Demand Level of

inventory

WAYS TO STUDY A SYSTEM

4. The actual system versus a model of the system

5. A physical model versus mathematical model
6. Analytical solution of a mathematical model versus Simulation solution

Fig 1. Ways to study a system

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System Modelling
1. Why is modelling required?
1. To find the height of a tower without actually climbing it
2. To measure the width of a river without actually crossing it
3. To gauge the mass of the Earth, not using any balance
4. To find the temperature at the surface of the Centre of the sun
5. To estimate the yield of wheat in India from the standing crop
6. To quantify the amount of blood inside a living human body
7. To predict the population of Nigeria for the year 2050
8. To determine the time required by a satellite to complete one orbit around the earth, say at
the height of about 10,000 km above the ground
9. To assess the impact of a 30% reduction in income tax over the national economy
10. To ascertain the optimally efficient gun whose performance depends on ten parameters,
each of which can take ten different values, without actually manufacturing 1010 guns
11. To determine the mean time between failures (MTBF) or average life span of an electric
bulb
12. To forecast the total amount of insurance claims, a company has to pay next year.

What is modelling?
Modelling is a process of abstraction of a real system. A model portrays a conceptual framework
to describe a system and can be viewed as an abstraction (essence) of an actual system or a physical
replica of a system or a situation. It is a factual representation of reality.
The word model is derived from Latin, and its meaning is mould or pattern (physical model).
The purpose of modelling a system is to expose its internal working and to present it in a form
useful to science and engineering studies. In other words, modelling means the process of
organising knowledge about a given system.

Hence, during model development, it is necessary to optimise two things:

1. The simplicity of the model
2. Accuracy of the model or faithfulness of model

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Classification of Models

Characteristics of models

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Inputs for Model Development

Modelling for Different Purposes: A case study

Consider an aircraft which could be modelled as

1. A particle
2. A system of rigid bodies
3. A system of deformable bodies

The choice depends on the analyst

1. If the analyst is interested in the trajectory of flight to find the fuel consumption, then the
particle model of aircraft is good, simple, and sufficient.

2. When the analyst is interested in flight stability, i.e., aircraft behavior for small disturbances,
then the aircraft is considered as a rigid body system.

3. Finally, when performing flutter analysis, i.e., determining the so-called critical speed of
flutter, the deformable body system is a good model.
Mathematical Modelling Principles
A mathematical model is a mathematical description of properties and interactions in the system.
Mathematical modelling is the use of mathematical language to describe the behaviour of a system.

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 Fundamental Axiom (Modeling Hypothesis)
Mathematical model of a component characterises it’s behaviour as an independent entity of a
system, and how it is interconnected with the other components to form a system.
It implies that the various components can be removed either literally or conceptually from the
remaining components and can be studied in isolation to establish a model of their characteristics.

Complimentary Pair of Variables for Different Systems

Physical Systems Conceptual Systems Esoteric System
Mechanical Hydraulic Electrical Transportation Economic Spiritual
System System System System System System
Across Velocity Pressure Voltage Traffic density Unit price Potential
Variables Xi (linear,angular)

Through Force, Torque Flow-Rate current Traffic flow Flow-rate Current

Variables Yi of Liquid rate of goods

Generic Description of Two-Terminal Components

Dissipater Type Components

power loss takes place

Delay Type Components

The energy or average power for infinite time is zero for delay type components. Therefore these
components are called nondissipative type elements.

Accumulator Type
The energy or average power over infinite time is zero for accumulator type components.
Therefore, these components are also called nondissipative type elements.

Sources or Drivers
The drivers or sources are those, whose across variable or through variable is specified, and the
different operating conditions have no effect on these variables.

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Lecture 3
Mathematical Modelling principles

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