Probability Distributions-
Continuous
Continuous Probability Distributions
Uniform Probability Distribution
Normal Probability Distribution
Normal Approximation of Binomial Probabilities
Exponential Probability Distribution
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
x
x
x
1
Continuous Probability Distributions
A continuous random variable can assume any value
in an interval on the real line or in a collection of
intervals.
It is not possible to talk about the probability of the
random variable assuming a particular value.
Instead, we talk about the probability of the random
variable assuming a value within a given interval.
Continuous Probability Distributions
The probability of the random variable assuming a
value within some given interval from x1 to x2 is
defined to be the area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.
f (x) Exponential
Uniform
f (x)
f (x)
Normal
x
x x1 xx12 x2
x1 x2
x
x1 x2
2
Uniform Probability Distribution
A random variable is uniformly distributed
whenever the probability is proportional to the
interval’s length.
The uniform probability density function is:
f (x) = 1/(b – a) for a < x < b
=0 elsewhere
where: a = smallest value the variable can assume
b = largest value the variable can assume
Uniform Probability Distribution
Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
3
Uniform Probability Distribution
Example: Slater's Buffet
Slater customers are charged for the amount of
salad they take. Sampling suggests that the amount
of salad taken is uniformly distributed between 5
ounces and 15 ounces.
Uniform Probability Distribution
Uniform Probability Density Function
f(x) = 1/10 for 5 < x < 15
=0 elsewhere
where:
x = salad plate filling weight
4
Uniform Probability Distribution
Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 – 5)2/12
= 8.33
Uniform Probability Distribution
Uniform Probability Distribution
for Salad Plate Filling Weight
f(x)
1/10
x
0 5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
5
Uniform Probability Distribution
What is the probability that a customer
will take between 12 and 15 ounces of salad?
f(x)
P(12 < x < 15) = 1/10(3) = .3
1/10
x
0 5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)
Area as a Measure of Probability
The area under the graph of f(x) and probability are
identical.
This is valid for all continuous random variables.
The probability that x takes on a value between some
lower value x1 and some higher value x2 can be found
by computing the area under the graph of f(x) over
the interval from x1 to x2.
6
Normal Probability Distribution
The normal probability distribution is the most
important distribution for describing a continuous
random variable.
It is widely used in statistical inference.
It has been used in a wide variety of applications
including:
• Heights of people • Test scores
• Rainfall amounts • Scientific measurements
Abraham de Moivre, a French mathematician,
published The Doctrine of Chances in 1733.
He derived the normal distribution.
Normal Probability Distribution
Normal Probability Density Function
1 2 2
f (x) e ( x ) /2
2
where:
= mean
= standard deviation
= 3.14159
e = 2.71828
7
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
The distribution is symmetric; its skewness
measure is zero.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
The entire family of normal probability
distributions is defined by its mean and its
standard deviation .
Standard Deviation
x
Mean
8
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
The highest point on the normal curve is at the
mean, which is also the median and mode.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
The mean can be any numerical value: negative,
zero, or positive.
x
-10 0 25
9
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
The standard deviation determines the width of the
curve: larger values result in wider, flatter curves.
= 15
= 25
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve. The total area
under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of the mean and
.5 to the right).
.5 .5
x
10
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics (basis for the empirical rule)
68.26% of values of a normal random variable
are within +/- 1 standard deviation of its mean.
95.44% of values of a normal random variable
are within +/- 2 standard deviations of its mean.
99.72% of values of a normal random variable
are within +/- 3 standard deviations of its mean.
Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics (basis for the empirical rule)
99.72%
95.44%
68.26%
x
+ 3
– 3 – 1 + 1
– 2 + 2
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Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
A random variable having a normal distribution
with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 is
said to have a standard normal probability
distribution.
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Characteristics
The letter z is used to designate the standard
normal random variable.
1
z
0
12
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution
x
z
We can think of z as a measure of the number of
standard deviations x is from .
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Example: Pep Zone
Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including
a popular multi-grade motor oil. When the stock of
this oil drops to 20 gallons, a replenishment order is
placed.
The store manager is concerned that sales are
being lost due to stockouts while waiting for a
replenishment order.
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Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Example: Pep Zone
It has been determined that demand during
replenishment lead-time is normally distributed
with a mean of 15 gallons and a standard deviation
of 6 gallons.
The manager would like to know the probability
of a stockout during replenishment lead-time. In
other words, what is the probability that demand
during lead-time will exceed 20 gallons?
P(x > 20) = ?
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Stockout Probability
Step 1: Convert x to the standard normal distribution.
z = (x - )/
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83
Step 2: Find the area under the standard normal
curve to the left of z = .83.
see next slide
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Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Cumulative Probability Table for
the Standard Normal Distribution
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
. . . . . . . . . . .
P(z < .83)
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Stockout Probability
Step 3: Compute the area under the standard normal
curve to the right of z = .83.
P(z > .83) = 1 – P(z < .83)
= 1- .7967
= .2033
Probability
of a stockout P(x > 20)
15
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Stockout Probability
Area = 1 - .7967
Area = .7967
= .2033
z
0 .83
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
If the manager of Pep Zone wants the probability
of a stockout during replenishment lead-time to be
no more than .05, what should the reorder point be?
---------------------------------------------------------------
(Hint: Given a probability, we can use the standard
normal table in an inverse fashion to find the
corresponding z value.)
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Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Reorder Point
Area = .9500
Area = .0500
z
0 z.05
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Reorder Point
Step 1: Find the z-value that cuts off an area of .05
in the right tail of the standard normal
distribution.
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 We
.9693look up.9706
.9699
the.9756
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 complement
.9761 .9767
. . . . . . . . of the
. tail. area .
(1 - .05 = .95)
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Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Reorder Point
Step 2: Convert z.05 to the corresponding value of x.
x = + z.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87 or 25
A reorder point of 25 gallons will place the probability
of a stockout during leadtime at (slightly less than) .05.
Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Reorder Point
Probability of no
Probability of a
stockout during
stockout during
replenishment
replenishment
lead-time = .95
lead-time = .05
x
15 24.87
18
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
Solving for the Reorder Point
By raising the reorder point from 20 gallons to
25 gallons on hand, the probability of a stockout
decreases from about .20 to .05.
This is a significant decrease in the chance that
Pep Zone will be out of stock and unable to meet a
customer’s desire to make a purchase.
Exponential Probability Distribution
The exponential probability distribution is useful in
describing the time it takes to complete a task.
The exponential random variables can be used to
describe:
•Time between vehicle arrivals at a toll booth
•Time required to complete a questionnaire
•Distance between major defects in a highway
In waiting line applications, the exponential
distribution is often used for service times.
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Exponential Probability Distribution
A property of the exponential distribution is that the
mean and standard deviation are equal.
The exponential distribution is skewed to the right.
Its skewness measure is 2.
Exponential Probability Distribution
Density Function
1
f ( x) e x / for x > 0
where: = expected or mean
e = 2.71828
20
Exponential Probability Distribution
Cumulative Probabilities
P ( x x0 ) 1 e xo /
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
Exponential Probability Distribution
Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump
The time between arrivals of cars at Al’s full-
service gas pump follows an exponential probability
distribution with a mean time between arrivals of 3
minutes. Al would like to know the probability that
the time between two successive arrivals will be 2
minutes or less.
21
Exponential Probability Distribution
Example: Al’s Full-Service Pump
f(x)
.4 P(x < 2) = 1 - 2.71828-2/3 = 1 - .5134 = .4866
.3
.2
.1
x
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)
Relationship between the Poisson
and Exponential Distributions
The Poisson distribution
provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval
The exponential distribution
provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences
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