DOTE2011D Mid-term Solution

14:35 - 16:05, 22nd October

1 Multiple choices (50 points)

ˆ 5 points for each correct answer; 0 points for each incorrect
answer or no answer.
ˆ For each question, only choose (at most) one out of four given
choices (A,B,C and D). If you choose more than one choice in
one question, your answer will be incorrect.

1. Which of the following random phenomena is the most suitable to be

described by a Binomial distribution?
(A) Counting the number of failures before the first success in a sequence
of trials.
(B) Counting the total number of successes in a sequence of trials (the
order does not matter).
(C) Counting the number of trials on which the rth success is observed
for a given natural number r.
(D) Counting the number of occurrences that a particular event happens
in a given time interval.
Solution: (B)
2. Which of the following random phenomena is the most suitable to be
described by an uniform distribution?
(A) When a large number of outcomes are observed, the outcomes have
a “bell-shaped” relative frequency distribution.

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 (B) The waiting time until the first occurrence of a particular event.
(C) When the outcomes have the same probability to appear.
(D) The sum of the squares of the independent normal random variables.
Solution: (C)
3. Which of the following random phenomena is the most suitable to be
described by an exponential distribution?
(A) When a large number of outcomes are observed, the outcomes have
a “bell-shaped” relative frequency distribution.
(B) The waiting time until the first occurrence of a particular event.
(C) When the outcomes have the same probability to appear.
(D) The sum of the squares of the independent normal random variables.
Solution: (B)
4. Roll a fair six-sided die three times. Let A1 = {1 or 2 on the first roll}
and A2 = {3 or 4 on the second roll}. Then what is P (A1 ∪ A2 )?
2
(A) 9
4
(B) 9
5
(C) 9
6
(D) 9

Solution: (C)

P (A1 ∪ A2 )
=P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) − P (A1 ∩ A2 )
1 1 1
= + − ( )2
3 3 3
5
=
9
5. If P (A) = 0.4, P (B) = 0.5, and P (A∩B) = 0.3, then what is P (A∩B ′ )?
(A) 0.1

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 (B) 0.3
(C) 0.5
(D) 0.7
Solution: (A)

P (A ∩ B ′ ) = P (A) − P (A ∩ B) = 0.4 − 0.3 = 0.1.

6. Suppose f (x) is a probability function of a discrete random variable X.

Let S be the set of all possible values of X. Which of the following
statement(s) must be correct?
(i) f (x) = 0 for any real number x in S.
(ii) f (x) ≤ 1 for any real number x in S.
P P
(iii) x f (x) = 1. Here x means “sum over all possible values of x”.

(A) Only (iii) is correct.

(B) Only (i) and (iii) are correct.
(C) Only (ii) and (iii) are correct.
(D) All are correct.

Solution: (C) By definition f (x) = P (X = x).

7. Suppose f (x) is a probability density function of a continuous random
variable X. Let S be the set of all possible values of X. Which of the
following statement(s) must be correct?
(i) f (x) = 0 for any real number x in S.
(ii) f (x) ≤ 1 for any real number x in S.
(iii) The total area under the graph of f (x) is 1.

(A) Only (iii) is correct.

(B) Only (i) and (iii) are correct.
(C) Only (ii) and (iii) are correct.
(D) All are correct.

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 Solution: (A) (i) is not correct as we have P (X = x) = 0 but f (x)
can be greater than 0; (ii) is not correct, consider uniform distribution
U (0, 1/2) with f (x) = 2.
8. Let A and B be two events, which of the following statement(s) must be
correct?
(i) Even if the events A and B are mutually exclusive, A and B can be
dependent.
(ii) If A ⊂ B, A and B are always dependent.
(iii) If A ⊂ B and P (A) > 0, A and B are always dependent.
(A) Only (i) is correct.
(B) Only (i) and (iii) are correct.
(C) Only (ii) and (iii) are correct.
(D) All are correct.
Solution: (A) (i) is correct. Since mutually exclusive means A∩B = ∅,
which implies P (A ∩ B) = 0, while A and B are independent means
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B), which is not 0 in general. (ii) and (iii) are not
correct. When P (A) = 0 or P (B) = 1, we have P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B).
9. Suppose an urn contains seven black balls and five white balls. We draw
two balls from the urn without replacement. Assuming that each ball in
the urn is equally likely to be drawn, what is the probability that both
drawn balls are black?
2
(A) 7
1
(B) 6
7
(C) 22
7
(D) 24

Solution: (C) Let F and E denote,respectively,the events that the first

and second ball draw are black. our desired probability is

7 6 7
P (EF ) = P (F ) ∗ P (E|F ) = ∗ =
12 11 22
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10. If immigrants to area A arrive at a Poisson rate of ten per week, and if
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each immigrant is of English descent with probability 12 , then what is
the probability that no people of English descent will emigrate to area
A during the month of February (28 days)?
10
(A) e− 3
6
(B) e− 5
6
(C) 0.5e− 5
10
(D) 0.5e− 3
1 10
Solution: (A) λ = µ = 10 × 4 × 12 = 3
10
λx e−λ e− 3 −10
P (X = 0) = = =e 3
x! 0!

2 Long questions (50 points)

1. (10 points) You know that a certain letter is equally likely to be in any
one of the three different folders. Suppose folder i,i = 1, 2, 3 is quick
examed. If the letter is in fact in folder i, with the probability αi (we
may have αi < 1) you will find it and with the probability 1 − αi you
will miss it; If the letter is not in there, you will definitely not find it.
Suppose you look in folder 1 and do not find the letter. What is the
probability that the letter is in folder 1? You may express your answer
in terms of α1 , α2 and α3 .
Solution: Let Fi , i = 1, 2, 3 be the event that the letter is in folder i,
and let E be the event that a search of folder 1 does not come up with
the letter. We desire P (F1 |E)

P (E|F1 )P (F1 ) (1 − α1 ) 31 1 − α1
P (F1 |E) = P3 = =
i=1 P (E|F i )P (F i ) (1 − α1 ) 13 + 13 + 1
3
3 − α1

2. (15 points) The data shown below describe temperatures (degrees Cel-
sius) for wheat grown at Harper Adams Agricultural College in Junes
between 1982 and 1993.

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 15.2 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.5 12.2 11.8 14.4 12.5 15.2

Assume that the standard deviation is known to be σ = 0.5.

(a) Construct a 99% two-sided confidence interval on the mean temper-
ature.
(b) Construct a 95% lower-confidence bound on the mean temperature.
(c) Suppose that we wanted to be 95% confident that the error in esti-
mating the mean temperature is less than 2 degrees Celsius. What
sample size should be used?
Solution:
(a) The sample mean
x1 + . . . + x11
X̄ = = 13.773.
11
Since
X̄ − µ
√ ∼ N (0, 1),
σ/ n
we have
X̄ − µ
P(−Z0.005 ≤ √ ≤ Z0.005 ) = 0.01,
σ/ n
and a 99% confidence interval is given by
σ σ
X̄ − Z0.005 √ ≤ µ ≤ X̄ + Z0.005 √ ,
n n
plug in Z0.005 = 2.57, we obtain

13.384 ≤ µ ≤ 14.162.

(b) The 95% lower confidence bound is

√
µ ≥ X̄ − Z0.05 σ/ n,

plug in Z0.05 = 1.64, we obtain

µ ≥ 13.526.

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 (c) Here we choose the value of n, such that
σ
Z0.025 √ ≤ 2,
n
that is  2  2
Z0.025 σ 1.96σ
n≥ = = 0.24,
2 2
therefore, n is at least 1.
3. (25 points) In a lab experiment involving inorganic syntheses of molec-
ular precursors to organometallic ceramics, the final step of a five-step
reaction involves the formation of a metalCmetal bond. The probability
of such a bond forming is p = 0.2. Let X equal the number of successful
reactions out of n = 25 such experiments. You can assume n is large
enough for normal approximation for this question.
(a) Give the mean and variance of X.
(b) Find the probability that X is at most 4.
(c) Find the probability that X is at least 5.
(d) Find the probability that X is equal to 6.
Solution: Note that X follows Binomial distribution with p = 0.2.
(a) E(X) = np = 5, σ 2 = np(1 − p) = 4.
(b) Use normal approximation,

P (X ≤ 4) = P (X < 4.5)
 
X − 5 4.5 − 5
=P <
2 2
= 0.4013.

(c) P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − P (X ≤ 4) = 0.5987.

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(d) Use normal approximation,

P (X = 6) = P (5.5 < X < 6.5)

= P (X < 6.5) − P (X < 5.5)
   
X − 5 6.5 − 5 X − 5 5.5 − 5
=P < −P <
2 2 2 2
= 0.7734 − 0.5987 = 0.1747.

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Figure 1: Distribution table for normal distribution