Midterm_D_sol(1)
Midterm_D_sol(1)
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(B) The waiting time until the first occurrence of a particular event.
(C) When the outcomes have the same probability to appear.
(D) The sum of the squares of the independent normal random variables.
Solution: (C)
3. Which of the following random phenomena is the most suitable to be
described by an exponential distribution?
(A) When a large number of outcomes are observed, the outcomes have
a “bell-shaped” relative frequency distribution.
(B) The waiting time until the first occurrence of a particular event.
(C) When the outcomes have the same probability to appear.
(D) The sum of the squares of the independent normal random variables.
Solution: (B)
4. Roll a fair six-sided die three times. Let A1 = {1 or 2 on the first roll}
and A2 = {3 or 4 on the second roll}. Then what is P (A1 ∪ A2 )?
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(A) 9
4
(B) 9
5
(C) 9
6
(D) 9
Solution: (C)
P (A1 ∪ A2 )
=P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) − P (A1 ∩ A2 )
1 1 1
= + − ( )2
3 3 3
5
=
9
5. If P (A) = 0.4, P (B) = 0.5, and P (A∩B) = 0.3, then what is P (A∩B ′ )?
(A) 0.1
2
(B) 0.3
(C) 0.5
(D) 0.7
Solution: (A)
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Solution: (A) (i) is not correct as we have P (X = x) = 0 but f (x)
can be greater than 0; (ii) is not correct, consider uniform distribution
U (0, 1/2) with f (x) = 2.
8. Let A and B be two events, which of the following statement(s) must be
correct?
(i) Even if the events A and B are mutually exclusive, A and B can be
dependent.
(ii) If A ⊂ B, A and B are always dependent.
(iii) If A ⊂ B and P (A) > 0, A and B are always dependent.
(A) Only (i) is correct.
(B) Only (i) and (iii) are correct.
(C) Only (ii) and (iii) are correct.
(D) All are correct.
Solution: (A) (i) is correct. Since mutually exclusive means A∩B = ∅,
which implies P (A ∩ B) = 0, while A and B are independent means
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B), which is not 0 in general. (ii) and (iii) are not
correct. When P (A) = 0 or P (B) = 1, we have P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B).
9. Suppose an urn contains seven black balls and five white balls. We draw
two balls from the urn without replacement. Assuming that each ball in
the urn is equally likely to be drawn, what is the probability that both
drawn balls are black?
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(A) 7
1
(B) 6
7
(C) 22
7
(D) 24
7 6 7
P (EF ) = P (F ) ∗ P (E|F ) = ∗ =
12 11 22
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10. If immigrants to area A arrive at a Poisson rate of ten per week, and if
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each immigrant is of English descent with probability 12 , then what is
the probability that no people of English descent will emigrate to area
A during the month of February (28 days)?
10
(A) e− 3
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(B) e− 5
6
(C) 0.5e− 5
10
(D) 0.5e− 3
1 10
Solution: (A) λ = µ = 10 × 4 × 12 = 3
10
λx e−λ e− 3 −10
P (X = 0) = = =e 3
x! 0!
P (E|F1 )P (F1 ) (1 − α1 ) 31 1 − α1
P (F1 |E) = P3 = =
i=1 P (E|F i )P (F i ) (1 − α1 ) 13 + 13 + 1
3
3 − α1
2. (15 points) The data shown below describe temperatures (degrees Cel-
sius) for wheat grown at Harper Adams Agricultural College in Junes
between 1982 and 1993.
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15.2 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.5 12.2 11.8 14.4 12.5 15.2
13.384 ≤ µ ≤ 14.162.
µ ≥ 13.526.
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(c) Here we choose the value of n, such that
σ
Z0.025 √ ≤ 2,
n
that is 2 2
Z0.025 σ 1.96σ
n≥ = = 0.24,
2 2
therefore, n is at least 1.
3. (25 points) In a lab experiment involving inorganic syntheses of molec-
ular precursors to organometallic ceramics, the final step of a five-step
reaction involves the formation of a metalCmetal bond. The probability
of such a bond forming is p = 0.2. Let X equal the number of successful
reactions out of n = 25 such experiments. You can assume n is large
enough for normal approximation for this question.
(a) Give the mean and variance of X.
(b) Find the probability that X is at most 4.
(c) Find the probability that X is at least 5.
(d) Find the probability that X is equal to 6.
Solution: Note that X follows Binomial distribution with p = 0.2.
(a) E(X) = np = 5, σ 2 = np(1 − p) = 4.
(b) Use normal approximation,
P (X ≤ 4) = P (X < 4.5)
X − 5 4.5 − 5
=P <
2 2
= 0.4013.
(c) P (X ≥ 5) = 1 − P (X ≤ 4) = 0.5987.
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(d) Use normal approximation,
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