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Budget and politics

FINANCE MINISTER Muhammad Aurangzeb on Thursday expressed his ‘resolve’ to

increase Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio to 13pc in the next three years. Addressing a
post-budget media briefing, he said: “Our basic principle while framing this budget
was to expand the tax base.”

Given this statement and his earlier declaration at the launch of the Economic Survey that
“countries cannot be run on charity but taxes”, it was expected that the new budget would have
significant measures to broaden the tax base. The reality of the taxation measures announced by
him in the budget, however, does not match his rhetoric.

Before we delve into the reasons for this gap, it should be acknowledged that the budget does
propose the revocation of certain tax exemptions being enjoyed by certain privileged sectors of the
economy. That, though, has been done to raise the annual tax collection to Rs12b.97tr, a sine qua
non to qualify for the three-year Extended Fund Facility being sought from the IMF.

One does not have to be a financial wizard to see that the budget still follows the same tried,
tested, flopped and, therefore, oft-rejected trope of milking those already in the tax net even more.
A large part of the additional revenue measures being proposed target the same two segments —
the salaried classes and documented businesses — which already pay the bulk of personal and
direct taxes.

At best, the government can only hope that its proposal to levy higher taxes on non-filers trying to
buy or sell property will force them to join the tax net voluntarily. At worst, it will force more
people to engage in cash transactions and, thus, increase tax evasion.

The next budget, in fact, reflects the ruling PML-N’s political concerns more than its economic
reform agenda. For one, it has left its traditional support — traders — virtually untouched.
Nothing except such political imperatives explain why the finance minister did not levy any direct
taxes on retail trade even when the government has talked a lot about it of late.

Similarly, while there is a proposal to levy federal excise duty on property, real estate developers
and agents have been shielded from any additional tax burden. This, too, stems from political
expediency: the PML-N cannot afford to anger the middle class other than those sections that have
already turned against it.

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The budget, therefore, lacks both imagination and courage. It shows that the finance team did not
envision any structural changes to broaden the tax-to-GDP ratio and, instead, chose to stick to old
formulae. It also shows that the ruling party is scared of taking bold steps lest it loses whatever
little public support and legitimacy it has. Consequently, the budget it has presented signifies
nothing but a lost opportunity to fix the system.

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2024

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New talks?

WILL this prove another false start, or may we expect a more sincere effort this
time? Reference is made to the recent green signal for talks given by the PTI chief to
his party, which has rekindled a spark or two of hope for a political turnaround. The
circumstances certainly do not seem conducive, and it appears that it will be entirely
up to the political leadership to make things work. But though neither side may want
to make much of an effort at this stage, the opportunity, as uninviting as it may
seem, must not be squandered. As weeks of impasse have turned into months and
then years, the people have gradually lost all hope in the political system’s capacity
to make things better. If Pakistan’s future is to remain democratic, politicians on
both sides of the aisle now need to demonstrate that they are serious. The faction
representing the PTI must publicly affirm that it will remain committed to the
process, however frustrating it may be, while the government should build
confidence by ordering the immediate release of all political prisoners, beginning
with the many women who continue to be imprisoned without any trial.

Admittedly, there have already been quite a few efforts to ignite some kind of rapprochement
between the two factions, and none has borne any fruit. Yet, we must not give up hope: hope that
Imran Khan has finally realised that he must share the future with men and women he does not
like and may even despise, and hope that the Sharifs and the Zardaris have realised that they
cannot keep their legacy intact with the kind of abominable mistakes they have made in recent
years. It has been quite frustrating that the future of the federation has lain in the hands of these
politicians all along, and yet they have done everything to demonstrate their unworthiness for the
immense responsibility entrusted to them by the public. It is hoped that they finally realise that
they must set down new rules for political engagement and then abide by them, come what may.
Politics is, after all, an evolving art. There are lessons aplenty in the experiences shared by these
parties that can enable them to envision a better, fairer future together. They must demonstrate
that the public’s expectations of them are met.

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2024

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A non-starter

WHILE the UN Security Council had earlier this week adopted a US-backed
resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza — which was basically an endorsement of
President Joe Biden’s ‘peace plan’ and supposedly designed to stop the slaughter —
Israel’s actions both before and after the resolution’s adoption indicate it is in no
mood for peace. Before the resolution was passed, Israel raided the Nuseirat camp
to rescue a number of hostages. Palestinians have described the operation as a
massacre, resulting in nearly 300 fatalities. Even after the resolution was passed,
Tel Aviv has continued its relentless pounding of Gaza. As these lines were being
written on Thursday, the Israeli war machine was unleashing destruction on Rafah.
The Americans, meanwhile, have publicly called on Hamas to ratify the deal. The
problem here is not the Palestinian factions; it is Israel. Hamas had earlier
welcomed the UNSC resolution, though it called for a permanent ceasefire and a
withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The Israeli leadership, meanwhile, has
maintained ambiguity over its stance on the ceasefire. In fact, their continuing
blood-soaked forays into Gaza indicate Israel’s true feelings about the peace plan.

America’s focus appears to be misplaced. Instead of piling pressure on the Palestinians,

Washington needs to tell its ‘ironclad’ allies in Tel Aviv to immediately end hostilities. But that is
unlikely to happen, as the US, at all international forums, has acted as Israel’s primary advocate
rather than a neutral peacemaker. Moreover, Mr Biden’s push for peace is not likely influenced by
any empathy for the over 37,000 dead Palestinians Israel has butchered. November approaches,
and the US leader is more worried about a messy Middle East war dampening his chances at re-
election. Only a ceasefire that demands all sides immediately silence their guns can work, that too
if the international community threatens to isolate Israel in case of non-compliance. Without that,
hopes for peace are fanciful.

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2024

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Tackling the lethal troika

NOOR Wali Mehsud, ameer of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, stated recently that
their ‘jihad’ against Pakistan had entered a “decisive phase”. He expressed the
determination to “liberate their lands and enforce the divine laws therein”.

Mehsud’s newfound confidence is due to the provision of a sanctuary in Afghanistan by the Afghan
Taliban government, as well as the commitment of the Afghanistan-based Al Qaeda, to mentor the
TTP in carrying out its terrorist campaign in Pakistan. Pakistan must immediately review its
strategy of tackling this security challenge from the lethal troika, which is more experienced,
committed and battle-hardened today than ever before.

To prepare for war, Sun Tzu states “of supreme importance … is to attack the enemy’s strategy”. It
follows that Pakistan’s main goal in defeating the TTP should be to proactively neutralise its
anticipated terrorism strategy. This is best achieved by basing our national response on four
pillars: creating an environment in Pakistan conducive to an effective national counterterrorism
(CT) effort; an external dimension in targeting the use of Afghanistan as a sanctuary by the TTP/
Al Qaeda; sustained and coordinated kinetic measures; and a holistic plan for comprehensive,
well-resourced, non-kinetic measures.

It might be a cliché to state that a poor and divided nation is likely to find it difficult to counter a
serious challenge to its security. But sadly, that is what Pakistan looks like today. The political
polarisation is unprecedented, economic conditions are dire and getting worse, and social
cohesiveness is at its lowest. All this saps resolve and the capability to fight terrorism.

Therefore, the essential starting point for Pakistan in its war against the lethal troika is to set its
own house in order by resolving its political polarisation, alleviating the common man’s economic
woes, and moving towards building a more cohesive society through a government trusted by its
citizens, and by improving the rule of law, adherence to fundamental rights, and accountability.

The second pillar — the external dimension — is crucial because the centre of gravity of the revived
TTP and Al Qaeda is their sanctuary in Afghanistan. To make this sanctuary restrictive for the
terrorist groups, we need to engage with the Afghan government at three levels — bilateral,
regional and global.

Bilaterally, a nuanced approach should be adopted to make it more beneficial for the Taliban to
restrict the activities of the two terrorist groups on their soil. Regionally, it should be stressed that

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the groups’ revival in Afghanistan poses a threat to regional security. We can use the forum of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which has a CT mandate implemented through the Regional
Anti-Terrorist Structure. Globally, Pakistan can use different fora like the UN to keep the world
updated about the implications of TTP/ Al Qaeda sanctuaries in Afghanistan for global security.

The essential starting point for Pakistan is to

set its own house in order.

It is pertinent to point out that while sanctuary in Afghanistan is an asset for the TTP/ Al Qaeda, it
is also a constraining factor, because in the 2020 Doha accord, the Taliban had committed to not
allowing their territory to be used for terrorism against any other country. It follows that a primary
goal of the two groups would be to capture some territory in Pakistan and proclaim that they were
not based in Afghanistan. To defeat this strategy, we should give the highest priority to preventing
the TTP from capturing territory in Pakistan, particularly along the Afghan border.

As regards the third pillar, kinetic measures are an essential part of the CT toolkit. But we need to
analyse why the military operations in ex-Fata and Swat, which successfully subdued the TTP
from 2014 to 2020, could not prevent the group’s revival from 2021 onwards. One factor was the
US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The other was our inability to realise that military operations, to
be effective in the long term, have to go hand in hand with capacity building of local police and
other civilian departments, so that in due course, when the military withdraws or takes a back
seat, the civilian departments are capable of taking over.

Coming to the fourth pillar, if the capacity-building of state institutions for combating terrorism is
important, no less crucial is the building up of the resilience of society to counter the terrorist
threat. We witnessed how the people of Swat forced the TTP to withdraw again to Afghanistan in
2022. This resilience of the people against violent extremism must be expanded and strengthened.
It can best be done by non-kinetic measures.

While there is a wide array of non-kinetic measures recommended by the UN for countering
terrorism and preventing violent extremism, four areas deserve more attention in Pakistan —
increasing socioeconomic opportunities, reducing political marginalisation, improving governance
and neutralising social networks that propagate violent extremism. Being the front-line province,
KP deserves the highest priority in terms of allocation of resources, both for CT and PVE. In this

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regard, Pakistan can learn from international initiatives like the EU’s Radicalisation Awareness
Network .

The above-mentioned measures have been suggested earlier also, but are rarely implemented.
This can be broadly attributed to 1) lack of political ownership of the national CT/ PVE effort, 2)
the perception that national security is the military’s domain, with nominal input from civilians,
and last but not the least, 3) non-allocation of required resources to civilian institutions.

To address these, an essential step is to civilianise the concept of national security, with the
military playing a supportive role. Else, this vicious cycle of terrorism, military operations,
dislocation of terrorists, peace accords and then terrorists’ revival shall continue.

The writer is a former police officer who was Nacta’s first national coordinator.

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2024

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Education emergency: a social X-ray

THE prime minister recently declared an education emergency, a much-needed and

welcome call to action.

Our education system is in critical condition and experts must now step forward to revive it.
International donors and NGOs must be watching keenly to see what happens this time.
Academics may be expecting invitations, polishing their PowerPoint presentations, inserting the
new slogan ‘Education Emergency’ in large fonts, saving files on colourful USBs, and securing
them in shiny leather bags. Here come the reforms.

This time, the focus is on the social margins — out-of-school children — an area that falls under
the United Nation’s SDG-4 . We need a dual-lens microscope to address this issue: one lens to
focus on the complex challenge of educational access for the out-of-school children, and the other
to critically examine society and the systems that have allowed this issue to swell to such an extent.
The existence of 26.2 million children who have stopped going to or never have seen the inside of a
classroom cannot be an overnight development, nor one that took shape over the course of a
decade. It requires sustained neglect, apathy, and deep indifference to reach such a sorry state of
affairs.

As a sociologist of education, I shall explore how sociology can help us better understand this
intricate issue and inform our response. The task of sociology and anthropology is to make the
familiar strange, so it can be viewed in a new light. As self-help author and motivational speaker
Wayne Dyer said, “When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.”
So, let us examine the challenge of educational access and continuity for the OOSC through the
lens of sociology.

First, consider the social ecology of these children. The issue is not solely educational but
fundamentally a socio-historical and political production. It is the result of long-term exclusion
and marginalisation, forming the social context within which the issue has grown. Over the years,
numerous policies and initiatives have attempted to address this, yet they often fail to tackle the
root causes. These initiatives often lack a comprehensive understanding of the deep-seated issues
that perpetuate educational inequality.

It is a case of the slow death of development, an invisible social virus more dangerous than Covid-
19, visible only through its symptoms: multi-generational poverty, social injustice, health

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inequalities, oppression, human rights violations, violence, corruption, child abuse, intolerance,
and hypocrisy.

Education as a social institution alone

cannot resolve the problem of out-of-school
children.

These factors have nurtured the root causes of educational inequality, of which the out-of-school
children are a symptom. Exclusion of these children has been an incremental process through
history, where society eats itself up, driven by self-destructive forces, like an autoimmune disease.
The powerful centres reproduce peripheries, which in turn produce social margins whose
existence becomes almost invisible. Their condition is reminiscent of the insect in Kafka’s
Metamorphosis, ambivalent and alienated.

Education as a social institution alone cannot resolve this problem caused by multiple societal
failures. It needs support and protection through values of social justice, human rights, and
freedoms. The issue of out-of-school children should be seen in its social ecology, a symptom of
broader system failures.

We must recognise that the challenges of educational inequalities cannot be addressed in

isolation; interventions should be supported and sustained through global and national
commitments to social justice and civic responsibility. A composite response to the challenges of
out-of-school children requires multisectoral, multi-institutional, and multidisciplinary inputs.
Therefore, achieving SDG-4 needs to be supplemented with other SDGs, especially SDGs-1, 2, 3, 5,
6, 16, and 17.

Second, consider the variability within out-of-school children. This group is not homogeneous but
diverse in demographic character, physical location, degree of mobility, and range of visibility.
This category includes street children, rag pickers, child beggars, nomads, children of seasonal
migrants, child inmates, and child labourers. Each subgroup faces unique challenges and barriers
to education, necessitating tailored approaches and interventions. Education for all means all
these children have a fundamental right to not just education, but health, and freedoms.
Therefore, a one-size-fits-all solution is inadequate. Different strategies are needed for different
groups.

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Third, we must diversify the curriculum and pedagogy. Inclusion means attending to differences,
and the diverse needs of this group require corresponding diversified pedagogical methods.
Traditional schooling is not a panacea. School shortages and distances are major obstacles to
educational access. We need to provide flexible, situationally relevant learning opportunities
tailored to the material and social realities of marginalised children.

Both educational content and pedagogical methods need innovation. We should focus on learning
instead of schooling. Schools are place-dependent institutions, while learning can be spatially
mobile, online, media-based, hybrid, or distance-based. The concept of learning opens up multiple
possibilities independent of physical schooling. It is also less costly. However, the learning model
needs proper understanding of non-formal educational approaches, which are currently
underexplored in our context.

Additionally, Unicef’s Temporary Learning Centres , which proved viable during the 2022 floods,
can be multiplied. A comparative educational analysis, such as innovations for out-of-school
children in Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Kerala (India), offers valuable lessons. In these regions,
adaptable and community-centred educational models have shown significant success,
demonstrating the importance of context-specific solutions.

May our education system heal quickly, so no child is left behind.

The writer is a sociologist of education and an ethnographer. He holds a PhD degree from McGill
University, and is an assistant professor at the Sukkur-IBA University.

[email protected]

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2024

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A helping hand

IN a country without institutionalised social security, how do people of limited

means survive in an emergency? A wage earner might lose his job unexpectedly, a
young woman with small children may be widowed, or a serious illness might strike.
The well-to-do have their savings and insurance to help them tide over the
emergency. But for the indigent, the options are limited. At best, they can beg,
borrow or steal.

It is in this context that the social network system has assumed great significance. Many large
communities existed even before Pakistan, such as the Ismailis, Memons, etc. Several biradaris are
relatively new, having been formalised after 1947 when populations were uprooted and needed
support. The fact is that communities have stepped in to fill the vacuum created by the failure of
the state to provide economic and social security to its citizens. A well-known community is the
Saudagran-i-Delhi.

These communities are structured div­e­rsely and perform complex functions. I lea­rnt more about
them from Seema Liaquat of the Anjuman-i-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen, Partabgarh [Awadh]. Seema’s
father died in 1974. She is grateful to the AIMPG as it came to her mother’s rescue when she was
left with four young children. The community assigned her a stipend, which arrived, without fail,
every month at her doorstep until her eldest son began to work and support the family. “When my
mother requested for the stipend to be discontinued, a committee member was dispatched to
check if all was well,” Seema recalls.

The AIMPG is an urban community though its founding members traced their origins to various
villages of Partabgarh, a district of Awadh. It was not based exclusively on common paternal
descent but included the fraternity of households of the area.

Communities have stepped in where the state

has failed.

Following partition, 100-odd Part­ab­gar­hians migrated to Karachi to test the greener pastures
promised by the Muslim League. Then followed the migration of families. Meanwhile, the sight of
a woman from Partabgarh begging on a Karachi street upset the pioneers so much that they

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decided to set up a welfare society in 1955 so that no one would have to beg. The idea was also to
connect members with relatives with whom they had lost touch. There was no looking back after
that.

The community’s membership has risen to 6,000, comprising a number of highly educated and
socially and economically well-placed individuals. It had started as a group of illiterate men,
mostly unskilled workers such as gardeners, peons, drivers and chowkidars. The Anjuman now
boasts a 99 per cent literacy rate and has PhD doctors, a veterinarian, an MPhil (to be), an MNA,
two MPAs and lawyers in its ranks. For many, it has been a story of from rags to riches.

I was impressed by the AIMPG’s self-help spirit. Its focus has been on humanitarian service, the
Shoba-i-Khidmat-i-Kha­­lq being its most important department. When I asked the organisation’s
president Khalil Qureshi what he took most pride in, he replied: “We have delivered stipends or
assistance to those on our list on the first of the month for the last 69 years without fail. Today, 82
families between them receive Rs1,000,000 every month.”

Mr Qureshi, who is commercial manager at Port Qasim, also speaks proudly of the 60-bedded
Awadh General Hospital, a healthcare centre and the Awadh Public School that provides
education to 400 children — 100 of them receiving fee subsidy.

The Anjuman raises its own funds. The membership fee is a token one rupee, which was fixed in
1955. But members and non-member beneficiaries are generous with their zakat, fitra and other
donations.

The administ­r­ation is structu­r­ed democratical­­ly. It is divided into 19 wards in the city (Karachi)
with a representative to monitor the well-being of the members under his jurisdiction. Above the
wardens is a three-member council consisting of a president, general secretary and finance
secretary assisted by an auditor. Elections are held every two years.

Events held periodically are well-attended and help the members bond. Membership is entirely
voluntary and those who choose to join demonstrate a strong sense of brotherhood, which means
a lot in a country that has failed to give its people a sense of ownership. The AIMPG has been
progressive in its outlook and had managed generational change effectively. No wonder all
children are attending schools, and the emancipation and empowerment of women in an
extremely patriarchal community has proceeded smoothly.

How does the government feel about such communities? Obviously, it welcomes them because
they are apolitical and do not challenge the state’s power. The wealthier communities contribute a

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lot to the national economy. But with membership hardly amounting to anything in a country of
241 million, the communities make no impact on the social security situation in the country.

www.zubeida-mustafa.com

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2024

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Protecting the coast

PAKISTAN’S coastal and marine ecosystems, such as the Indus delta, Karachi’s
mangroves, and the Makran coast, are not merely scenic beauties but foundational
to the country’s environmental and economic stability. The Indus delta mangroves
alone encompass about 130,000 hectares (321,237 acres) serving as vital carbon
sinks that store approximately 14.4 million tonnes of carbon annually. Yet, these
ecosystems face critical threats — industrial pollution, rampant overfishing, and the
overarching impacts of climate change compromise their ability to perform
essential functions.

In Karachi, the unchecked discharge of industrial pollutants has severe consequences on its
marine ecosystems. Notably, the city’s release of about 90 per cent of its untreated wastewater into
the Arabian Sea introduces pollutants such as heavy metals and hydrocarbons, with the tanning
industry releasing toxins that have been shown to damage sensitive mangrove roots and reduce
the water quality, affecting the health of fish and other marine life. The recent controversial
construction of the expressway along the route of the Malir river, poses a direct threat to these
ecosystems resulting in increased sedimentation that might suffocate the mangrove forests, which
are crucial nurseries for many species of fish.

One solution to these problems is the establishment of a national marine data repository. This
centralised data system would enable better management and monitoring of marine environments
by providing accurate and timely information on pollution levels, biodiversity health, and the
effectiveness of conservation efforts. The data on pollution levels, including concentrations of
heavy metals and chemicals from industrial discharges, will help identify pollution hotspots and
guide regulatory enforcement. Biodiversity data, tracking species populations and health,
monitoring the health of the mangroves and coral reefs through satellite imagery, and field
surveys and data on water quality indicators such as pH, dissolved oxygen, and nutrient levels
would help in tracking the broader environmental health of the blue ecosystems.

Strengthening regulatory frameworks is essential to addressing the threats faced by Pakistan’s

marine ecosystems. One specific policy would be the introduction of a ‘marine pollution control
act’ which would mandate industrial facilities to instal and maintain wastewater treatment plants
to remove harmful pollutants before discharge. The act should be reinforced with the insetting and
offsetting of toxin release. Additionally, a permit system for factories along the coast, mandating
the treatment of wastewater before the release and investment in catchment restoration, should be

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introduced. This would be in the form of ‘marine credits’ for funding coral reef restoration or
seagrass meadow rehabilitation, which could then be used to offset their pollution footprints.
These permits would be linked to regular inspections and hefty fines for non-compliance, ensuring
a deterrent effect that would encourage industries to adopt cleaner practices.

Pollutants are damaging sensitive mangrove

roots.

Community involvement is equally critical for sustainable outcomes. Local and indigenous
communities, which have depended on Pakistan’s coastal and marine ecosystems for generations,
are often overlooked in policymaking processes. These communities are key stakeholders,
possessing invaluable traditional knowledge and a deep connect­i­on to the environm­e­nt. Yet,
policymakers from urban centres frequently impose re­­gulations without con­­-sulting them, leading
to ineffective and un­­sustainable outco­m­es. True progress can only be made by genuinely engaging
these communities, earning their trust, and implementing tailored awareness campaigns where
needed. Without their involvement, no policy will be effective or enforceable.

Looking at international examples, community-led initiatives were one of the key components in
the success of Marine Protected Areas, which helped to revitalise coral reefs. Ensuring justice
means recognising these communities’ rights, incorporating their insights, and creating inclusive
conservation strategies that honour their roles as stewards of the environment.

In the words of a local fisherman, “We protect what we love, and we love what we understand.”
Just as the tides sustain the shores, so, too, we must sustain our efforts to protect these vital
ecosystems. For the future of our oceans, and the communities that depend on them, is a shared
responsibility we cannot afford to ignore.

The writer is a UK-based research scientist.

[email protected]

Published in Dawn, June 14th, 2024

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