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 To our wives,
Rhoda B., Marilyn L., and, Patti K.,

and to our children,

Kathy, Lori, Sharyn, Ed, Rudy, and Rhonda
About the Authors

The textbook authors meet to discuss statistics at a Mets

baseball game. Shown left to right: David Levine, Mark
Berenson, and Tim Krehbiel.

Mark L. Berenson is Professor of Management and Information Systems at

Montclair State University (Montclair, New Jersey) and also Professor Emeritus of
Statistics and Computer Information Systems at Bernard M. Baruch College (City
University of New York). He currently teaches graduate and undergraduate courses in sta-
tistics and in operations management in the School of Business and an undergraduate
course in international justice and human rights that he co-developed in the College of
Humanities and Social Sciences.
Berenson received a B.A. in economic statistics and an M.B.A. in business statistics from
City College of New York and a Ph.D. in business from the City University of New York.
Berenson’s research has been published in Decision Sciences Journal of Innovative
Education, Review of Business Research, The American Statistician, Communications in
Statistics, Psychometrika, Educational and Psychological Measurement, Journal of
Management Sciences and Applied Cybernetics, Research Quarterly, Stats Magazine, The
New York Statistician, Journal of Health Administration Education, Journal of Behavioral
Medicine, and Journal of Surgical Oncology. His invited articles have appeared in The
Encyclopedia of Measurement & Statistics and Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences. He is
co-author of 11 statistics texts published by Prentice Hall, including Statistics for
Managers Using Microsoft Excel, Basic Business Statistics: Concepts and Applications,
and Business Statistics: A First Course.
Over the years, Berenson has received several awards for teaching and for innovative con-
tributions to statistics education. In 2005, he was the first recipient of The Catherine A.
Becker Service for Educational Excellence Award at Montclair State University.

David M. Levine is Professor Emeritus of Statistics and Computer Infor-

mation Systems at Baruch College (City University of New York). He received B.B.A. and
M.B.A. degrees in Statistics from City College of New York and a Ph.D. from New York
viii
 ABOUT THE AUTHORS ix

University in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research. He is nationally recognized

as a leading innovator in statistics education and is the co-author of 14 books, including
such best-selling statistics textbooks as Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel,
Basic Business Statistics: Concepts and Applications, Business Statistics: A First Course,
and Applied Statistics for Engineers and Scientists Using Microsoft Excel and Minitab.
He also is the co-author of Even You Can Learn Statistics: A Guide for Everyone Who Has
Ever Been Afraid of Statistics, currently in its 2nd edition, Six Sigma for Green Belts and
Champions and Design for Six Sigma for Green Belts and Champions, and the author of
Statistics for Six Sigma Green Belts, all published by FT Press, a Pearson imprint, and
Quality Management, 3rd edition, McGraw-Hill/Irwin. He is also the author of Video
Review of Statistics and Video Review of Probability, both published by Video Aided
Instruction, and the statistics module of the MBA primer published by Cengage Learning.
He has published articles in various journals, including Psychometrika, The American
Statistician, Communications in Statistics, Decision Sciences Journal of Innovative
Education, Multivariate Behavioral Research, Journal of Systems Management, Quality
Progress, and The American Anthropologist, and given numerous talks at the Decision
Sciences Institute (DSI), American Statistical Association (ASA), and Making Statistics
More Effective in Schools and Business (MSMESB) conferences. Levine has also received
several awards for outstanding teaching and curriculum development from Baruch College.

Timothy C. Krehbiel is Professor of Management and Senior Associate

Dean of the Farmer School of Business at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. He teaches
undergraduate and graduate courses in business statistics. In 1996, he received the presti-
gious Instructional Innovation Award from the Decision Sciences Institute. He has also
received the Farmer School of Business Effective Educator Award and has twice been
named MBA professor of the year.
Krehbiel’s research interests span many areas of business and applied statistics. His work
has appeared in numerous journals, including Quality Management Journal, Ecological
Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Journal of Purchasing and
Supply Management, Journal of Applied Business Research, Journal of Marketing
Management, Communications in Statistics, Decision Sciences Journal of Innovative
Education, Journal of Education for Business, Marketing Education Review, Journal of
Accounting Education, and Teaching Statistics. He is a co-author of three statistics text-
books published by Prentice Hall: Business Statistics: A First Course, Basic Business
Statistics, and Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel. Krehbiel is also a co-author
of the book Sustainability Perspectives in Business and Resources.
Krehbiel graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in history from McPherson College and
earned an M.S. and a Ph.D. in statistics from the University of Wyoming.
This page intentionally left blank
Brief Contents
Preface xxiii
1 Introduction 2
2 Organizing and Visualizing Data 26
3 Numerical Descriptive Measures 94
4 Basic Probability 144
5 Discrete Probability Distributions 180
6 The Normal Distribution and Other Continuous Distributions 216
7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 248
8 Confidence Interval Estimation 278
9 Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing: One-Sample Tests 324
10 Two-Sample Tests 364
11 Analysis of Variance 414
12 Chi-Square Tests and Nonparametric Tests 466
13 Simple Linear Regression 520
14 Introduction to Multiple Regression 576
15 Multiple Regression Model Building 628
16 Time-Series Forecasting 664
17 Statistical Applications in Quality Management 716
18 A Road Map for Analyzing Data 762
Online Chapter: 19 Decision Making
Appendices A–G 773
Self-Test Solutions and Answers to Selected Even-Numbered Problems 820
Index 850

xi
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Contents
Preface xxiii ORGANIZING DATA 29
2.2 Organizing Categorical Data 30
The Summary Table 30
The Contingency Table 30

1 Introduction 2 2.3 Organizing Numerical Data 33

Stacked and Unstacked Data 33
USING STATISTICS @ Good Tunes & More 3 The Ordered Array 34
The Frequency Distribution 35
1.1 Why Learn Statistics 4
The Relative Frequency Distribution and the Percentage
1.2 Statistics in Business 4 Distribution 37
1.3 Basic Vocabulary of Statistics 5 The Cumulative Distribution 38
1.4 Identifying Type of Variables 7 VISUALIZING DATA 41
Measurement Scales 7 2.4 Visualizing Categorical Data 41
1.5 Statistical Applications for Desktop The Bar Chart 42
Computing 10 The Pie Chart 43
1.6 How to Use This Book 11 The Pareto Chart 44
Checklist for Getting Started 11 The Side-by-Side Bar Chart 46
USING STATISTICS @ Good Tunes & More Revisited 13 2.5 Visualizing Numerical Data 49
SUMMARY 13 The Stem-and-Leaf Display 49
KEY TERMS 13 The Histogram 50
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 13
The Percentage Polygon 51
The Cumulative Percentage Polygon (Ogive) 53
END-OF-CHAPTER CASES 15
LEARNING WITH THE DIGITAL CASES 15
2.6 Visualizing Two Numerical Variables 56
The Scatter Plot 56
REFERENCES 16
The Time-Series Plot 58
CHAPTER 1 EXCEL GUIDE 17
2.7 Organizing Multidimensional Data 60
EG1.1 Getting Started with Excel 17
Multidimensional Contingency Tables 60
EG1.2 Entering Data and Variable Type 18
Adding Numerical Variables 61
EG1.3 Opening and Saving Workbooks 18
EG1.4 Creating and Copying Worksheets 19 2.8 Misuses and Common Errors in Visualizing Data 63
EG1.5 Printing Worksheets 19 USING STATISTICS @ Choice Is Yours, Part I Revisited 66
EG1.6 Worksheet Entries and References 20 SUMMARY 67
EG1.7 Absolute and Relative Cell References 21 KEY EQUATIONS 67
EG1.8 Entering Formulas into Worksheets 21 KEY TERMS 68
EG1.9 Using Appendices D and F 21 CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 68
CHAPTER 1 MINITAB GUIDE 22 MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 74
MG1.1 Getting Started With Minitab 22 DIGITAL CASE 75
MG1.2 Entering Data and Variable Type 22 REFERENCES 75
MG1.3 Opening and Saving Worksheets and CHAPTER 2 EXCEL GUIDE 76
Projects 23 EG2.2 Organizing Categorical Data 76
MG1.4 Creating and Copying Worksheets 24 EG2.3 Organizing Numerical Data 78
MG1.5 Printing Parts of a Project 24 EG2.4 Visualizing Categorical Data 80
MG1.6 Worksheet Entries and References 24 EG2.5 Visualizing Numerical Data 82
MG1.7 Using Appendices D and F 25 EG2.6 Visualizing Two Numerical Variables 84
EG2.7 Organizing Multidimensional Data 85
CHAPTER 2 MINITAB GUIDE 87
2 Organizing and Visualizing MG2.2 Organizing Categorical Data 87
MG2.3 Organizing Numerical Data 87
Data 26 MG2.4 Visualizing Categorical Data 88
MG2.5 Visualizing Numerical Data 89
USING STATISTICS @ Choice Is Yours, Part I 27 MG2.6 Visualizing Two Numerical Variables 92
2.1 Data Collection 28 MG2.7 Organizing Multidimensional Data 93
xiii
xiv CONTENTS

3 Numerical Descriptive 4 Basic Probability 144

Measures 94 USING STATISTICS @ M&R Electronics World 145
4.1 Basic Probability Concepts 146
USING STATISTICS @ Choice Is Yours, Part II 95
Events and Sample Spaces 147
3.1 Central Tendency 96 Contingency Tables and Venn Diagrams 148
The Mean 96
Simple Probability 149
The Median 98
Joint Probability 150
The Mode 99
Marginal Probability 150
The Geometric Mean 100
General Addition Rule 151
3.2 Variation and Shape 101
4.2 Conditional Probability 155
The Range 102
The Variance and the Standard Deviation 102 Computing Conditional Probabilities 155
The Coefficient of Variation 106 Decision Trees 156
Z Scores 107 Independence 158
Shape 108 Multiplication Rules 159
VISUAL EXPLORATIONS: Exploring Descriptive Marginal Probability Using the General Multiplication
Statistics 110 Rule 160
3.3 Exploring Numerical Data 113 4.3 Bayes’ Theorem 163
Quartiles 113 THINK ABOUT THIS: Divine Providence and Spam 166
The Interquartile Range 115 4.4 Counting Rules 167
The Five-Number Summary 115 Counting Rule 1 167
The Boxplot 117 Counting Rule 2 168
3.4 Numerical Descriptive Measures for a Population 120 Counting Rule 3 168
The Population Mean 121 Counting Rule 4 169
The Population Variance and Standard Deviation 121 Counting Rule 5 169
The Empirical Rule 122 4.5 Ethical Issues and Probability 171
The Chebyshev Rule 123
USING STATISTICS @ M&R Electronics World Revisited 172
3.5 The Covariance and the Coefficient of SUMMARY 172
Correlation 125
KEY EQUATIONS 172
The Covariance 125
KEY TERMS 173
The Coefficient of Correlation 127
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 173
3.6 Descriptive Statistics: Pitfalls and Ethical Issues 131
DIGITAL CASE 175
USING STATISTICS @ Choice Is Yours, Part II Revisited 131
REFERENCES 176
SUMMARY 132
CHAPTER 4 EXCEL GUIDE 177
KEY EQUATIONS 132
EG4.1 Basic Probability Concepts 177
KEY TERMS 133 EG4.2 Conditional Probability 177
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 133 EG4.3 Bayes’ Theorem 177
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 138 EG4.4 Counting Rules 178
DIGITAL CASE 138 CHAPTER 4 MINITAB GUIDE 178
REFERENCES 138 MG4.1 Basic Probability Concepts 178
CHAPTER 3 EXCEL GUIDE 139 MG4.2 Conditional Probability 178
EG3.1 Central Tendency 139 MG4.3 Bayes’ Theorem 178
EG3.2 Variation and Shape 139 MG4.4 Counting Rules 178
EG3.3 Exploring Numerical Data 140
EG3.4 Numerical Descriptive Measures for a
Population 140
EG3.5 The Covariance and the Coefficient of
Correlation 141
5 Discrete Probability
CHAPTER 3 MINITAB GUIDE 141 Distributions 180
MG3.1 Central Tendency 141
MG3.2 Variation and Shape 142 USING STATISTICS @ Saxon Home Improvement 181
MG3.3 Exploring Numerical Data 142 5.1 The Probability Distribution for a Discrete Random
MG3.4 Numerical Descriptive Measures for a Variable 182
Population 143 Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable 182
MG3.5 The Covariance and the Coefficient of Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random
Correlation 143 Variable 183
 CONTENTS xv

5.2 Covariance and Its Application in Finance 185 USING STATISTICS @ OurCampus! Revisited 240
Covariance 185 SUMMARY 240
Expected Value, Variance, and Standard Deviation of the KEY EQUATIONS 241
Sum of Two Random Variables 187
KEY TERMS 241
Portfolio Expected Return and Portfolio Risk 187
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 241
5.3 Binomial Distribution 190 MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 244
5.4 Poisson Distribution 197 DIGITAL CASE 244
5.5 Hypergeometric Distribution 201 REFERENCES 244
5.6 Online Topic Using the Poisson Distribution CHAPTER 6 EXCEL GUIDE 245
to Approximate the Binomial Distribution 204 EG6.1 Continuous Probability Distributions 245
USING STATISTICS @ Saxon Home Improvement EG6.2 The Normal Distribution 245
Revisited 205 EG6.3 Evaluating Normality 245
SUMMARY 205 EG6.4 The Uniform Distribution 246
KEY EQUATIONS 205 EG6.5 The Exponential Distribution 246
KEY TERMS 206 CHAPTER 6 MINITAB GUIDE 246
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 206 MG6.1 Continuous Probability Distributions 246
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 209
MG6.2 The Normal Distribution 246
MG6.3 Evaluating Normality 247
DIGITAL CASE 210
MG6.4 The Uniform Distribution 247
REFERENCES 210
MG6.5 The Exponential Distribution 247
CHAPTER 5 EXCEL GUIDE 211
EG5.1 The Probability Distribution for a Discrete Random
Variable 211
EG5.2 Covariance and Its Application in Finance 211
EG5.3 Binomial Distribution 212
7 Sampling and Sampling
EG5.4 Poisson Distribution 212 Distributions 248
EG5.5 Hypergeometric Distribution 213
USING STATISTICS @ Oxford Cereals 249
CHAPTER 5 MINITAB GUIDE 214
MG5.1 The Probability Distribution for a Discrete Random 7.1 Types of Sampling Methods 250
Variable 214 Simple Random Samples 251
MG5.2 Covariance and Its Application in Finance 214 Systematic Samples 253
MG5.3 Binomial Distribution 214 Stratified Samples 253
MG5.4 Poisson Distribution 214 Cluster Samples 254
MG5.5 Hypergeometric Distribution 215 7.2 Evaluating Survey Worthiness 255
Survey Error 255
Ethical Issues 256
THINK ABOUT THIS: New Media Surveys/Old Sampling
6 The Normal Distribution 7.3
Problem 256
Sampling Distributions 258
and Other Continuous 7.4 Sampling Distribution of the Mean 258
The Unbiased Property of the Sample Mean 258
Distributions 216 Standard Error of the Mean 260
USING STATISTICS @ OurCampus! 217 Sampling from Normally Distributed Populations 261
Sampling from Non-Normally Distributed Populations—
6.1 Continuous Probability Distributions 218 The Central Limit Theorem 264
6.2 The Normal Distribution 218 VISUAL EXPLORATIONS: Exploring Sampling Distributions 265
Computing Normal Probabilities 220 7.5 Sampling Distribution of the Proportion 266
THINK ABOUT THIS: What Is Normal? 228
7.6 Online Topic: Sampling from Finite
VISUAL EXPLORATIONS: Exploring the Normal
Populations 269
Distribution 229
6.3 Evaluating Normality 230 USING STATISTICS @ Oxford Cereals Revisited 270
Comparing Data Characteristics to Theoretical SUMMARY 270
Properties 231 KEY EQUATIONS 270
Constructing the Normal Probability Plot 232 KEY TERMS 271
6.4 The Uniform Distribution 235 CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 271
6.5 The Exponential Distribution 237 MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 273
6.6 Online Topic: The Normal Approximation to the DIGITAL CASE 273
Binomial Distribution 240 REFERENCES 274
xvi CONTENTS

CHAPTER 7 EXCEL GUIDE 275 CHAPTER 8 MINITAB GUIDE 322

EG7.1 Types of Sampling Methods 275 MG8.1 Confidence Interval Estimate for the
EG7.2 Evaluating Survey Worthiness 275 Mean (s Known) 322
EG7.3 Sampling Distributions 275 MG8.2 Confidence Interval Estimate for the
EG7.4 Sampling Distribution of the Mean 275 Mean (s Unknown) 323
EG7.5 Sampling Distribution of the Proportion 276 MG8.3 Confidence Interval Estimate for the Proportion 323
MG8.4 Determining Sample Size 323
CHAPTER 7 MINITAB GUIDE 276
MG8.5 Applications of Confidence Interval Estimation
MG7.1 Types of Sampling Methods 276 in Auditing 323
MG7.2 Evaluating Survey Worthiness 277
MG7.3 Sampling Distributions 277
MG7.4 Sampling Distribution of the Mean 277 9 Fundamentals of Hypothesis
Testing: One-Sample Tests 324
8 Confidence Interval USING STATISTICS @ Oxford Cereals, Part II 325
Estimation 278 9.1 Fundamentals of Hypothesis-Testing Methodology 326
The Null and Alternative Hypotheses 326
USING STATISTICS @ Saxon Home Improvement 279 The Critical Value of the Test Statistic 327
8.1 Confidence Interval Estimate for the Mean Regions of Rejection and Nonrejection 328
(s Known) 280 Risks in Decision Making Using Hypothesis Testing 328
Can You Ever Know the Population Standard Hypothesis Testing Using the Critical Value Approach 331
Deviation? 285 Hypothesis Testing Using the p-Value Approach 333
8.2 Confidence Interval Estimate for the A Connection Between Confidence Interval Estimation and
Mean (s Unknown) 286 Hypothesis Testing 336
Student’s t Distribution 286 Can You Ever Know the Population Standard Deviation? 336
Properties of the t Distribution 287 9.2 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean (s Unknown) 338
The Concept of Degrees of Freedom 288 The Critical Value Approach 338
The Confidence Interval Statement 288 The p-Value Approach 340
8.3 Confidence Interval Estimate for the Proportion 294 Checking the Normality Assumption 340
8.4 Determining Sample Size 297 9.3 One-Tail Tests 344
Sample Size Determination for the Mean 297 The Critical Value Approach 345
Sample Size Determination for the Proportion 299 The p-Value Approach 346
8.5 Applications of Confidence Interval Estimation in 9.4 Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion 349
Auditing 303 The Critical Value Approach 350
Estimating the Population Total Amount 304 The p-Value Approach 351
Difference Estimation 305 9.5 Potential Hypothesis-Testing Pitfalls and Ethical Issues 353
One-Sided Confidence Interval Estimation of the Rate of Statistical Significance Versus Practical Significance 353
Noncompliance with Internal Controls 308 Reporting of Findings 353
8.6 Confidence Interval Estimation and Ethical Issues 310 Ethical Issues 354
8.7 Online Topic: Estimation and Sample Size 9.6 Online Topic: The Power of a Test 354
Determination for Finite Populations 311
USING STATISTICS @ Oxford Cereals, Part II Revisited 354
USING STATISTICS @ Saxon Home Improvement SUMMARY 355
Revisited 311
KEY EQUATIONS 355
SUMMARY 311
KEY TERMS 355
KEY EQUATIONS 312
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 355
KEY TERMS 313
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 358
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 313
DIGITAL CASE 358
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 317
REFERENCES 358
DIGITAL CASE 318
CHAPTER 9 EXCEL GUIDE 359
REFERENCES 318
EG9.1 Fundamentals of Hypothesis-Testing Methodology 359
CHAPTER 8 EXCEL GUIDE 319
EG9.2 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean (s Unknown) 359
EG8.1 Confidence Interval Estimate for the EG9.3 One-Tail Tests 360
Mean (s Known) 319
EG9.4 Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion 361
EG8.2 Confidence Interval Estimate for the
Mean (s Unknown) 319 CHAPTER 9 MINITAB GUIDE 362
EG8.3 Confidence Interval Estimate for the Proportion 320 MG9.1 Fundamentals of Hypothesis-Testing Methodology 362
EG8.4 Determining Sample Size 320 MG9.2 t Test of Hypothesis for the Mean (s Unknown) 362
EG8.5 Applications of Confidence Interval Estimation in MG9.3 One-Tail Tests 362
Auditing 321 MG9.4 Z Test of Hypothesis for the Proportion 363
 CONTENTS xvii

10 Two-Sample Tests 364 11.2 The Randomized Block Design 430

Testing for Factor and Block Effects 430
Multiple Comparisons: The Tukey Procedure 436
USING STATISTICS @ BLK Beverages 365
11.3 The Factorial Design: Two-Way Analysis of Variance 438
10.1 Comparing the Means of Two Independent
Testing for Factor and Interaction Effects 439
Populations 366
Multiple Comparisons: The Tukey Procedure 444
Pooled-Variance t Test for the Difference Between Two
Means 366 Visualizing Interaction Effects: The Cell Means Plot 445
Confidence Interval Estimate for the Difference Between Interpreting Interaction Effects 446
Two Means 371 USING STATISTICS @ Perfect Parachutes Revisited 451
t Test for the Difference Between Two Means Assuming SUMMARY 451
Unequal Variances 372
KEY EQUATIONS 451
THINK ABOUT THIS: “This Call May Be Monitored ... ” 374
KEY TERMS 453
10.2 Comparing the Means of Two Related Populations 377
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 453
Paired t Test 378
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 457
Confidence Interval Estimate for the Mean
Difference 383 DIGITAL CASE 458

10.3 Comparing the Proportions of Two Independent REFERENCES 458

Populations 385 CHAPTER 11 EXCEL GUIDE 459
Z Test for the Difference Between Two Proportions 386 EG11.1 The Completely Randomized Design: One-Way
Confidence Interval Estimate for the Difference Between Analysis of Variance 459
Two Proportions 390 EG11.2 The Randomized Block Design 461
10.4 F Test for the Ratio of Two Variances 392 EG11.3 The Factorial Design: Two-Way Analysis of
Variance 462
USING STATISTICS @ BLK Beverages Revisited 397
CHAPTER 11 MINITAB GUIDE 464
SUMMARY 398 MG11.1 The Completely Randomized Design: One-Way
KEY EQUATIONS 399 Analysis of Variance 464
KEY TERMS 400 MG11.2 The Randomized Block Design 465
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 400 MG11.3 The Factorial Design: Two-Way Analysis of
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 404
Variance 465
DIGITAL CASE 405
REFERENCES 405
CHAPTER 10 EXCEL GUIDE 406
12 Chi-Square Tests and
EG10.1 Comparing the Means of Two Independent Nonparametric Tests 466
Populations 406
EG10.2 Comparing the Means of Two Related USING STATISTICS @ T.C. Resort Properties 467
Populations 408 12.1 Chi-Square Test for the Difference Between Two
EG10.3 Comparing the Proportions of Two Independent Proportions 468
Populations 409 12.2 Chi-Square Test for Differences Among More Than Two
EG10.4 F Test for the Ratio of Two Variances 410 Proportions 475
CHAPTER 10 MINITAB GUIDE 411 The Marascuilo Procedure 478
MG10.1 Comparing the Means of Two Independent Online Topic: The Analysis of Proportions (ANOP) 480
Populations 411
12.3 Chi-Square Test of Independence 481
MG10.2 Comparing the Means of Two Related
Populations 411 12.4 McNemar Test for the Difference Between Two Proportions
MG10.3 Comparing the Proportions of Two Independent (Related Samples) 487
Populations 412 12.5 Chi-Square Test for the Variance or Standard
MG10.4 F Test for the Ratio of Two Variances 412 Deviation 490
12.6 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test: Nonparametric Analysis
for Two Independent Populations 494
11 Analysis of Variance 414 12.7 Kruskal-Wallis Rank Test: Nonparametric Analysis
for the One-Way ANOVA 500
USING STATISTICS @ Perfect Parachutes 415
12.8 Online Topic: Wilcoxon Signed Ranks test:
11.1 The Completely Randomized Design: One-Way Analysis Nonparametric Analysis for Two Related Populations 505
of Variance 416 12.9 Online Topic: Friedman Rank Test: Nonparametric
One-Way ANOVA F Test for Differences Among More Than Analysis for the Randomized Block Design 506
Two Means 416
Multiple Comparisons: The Tukey-Kramer Procedure 422 USING STATISTICS @ T.C. Resort Properties Revisited 506
Online Topic: The Analysis of Means (ANOM) 424 SUMMARY 506
ANOVA Assumptions 424 KEY EQUATIONS 507
Levene Test for Homogeneity of Variance 425 KEY TERMS 508
xviii CONTENTS

CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 508 Confidence Interval Estimate for the Slope 550
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 511 t Test for the Correlation Coefficient 551
DIGITAL CASE 512 13.8 Estimation of Mean Values and Prediction of Individual
REFERENCES 513 Values 554
CHAPTER 12 EXCEL GUIDE 514 The Confidence Interval Estimate 554
EG12.1 Chi-Square Test for the Difference Between The Prediction Interval 556
Two Proportions 514 13.9 Pitfalls in Regression 558
EG12.2 Chi-Square Test for Differences Among More Than THINK ABOUT THIS: By Any Other Name 561
Two Proportions 514
USING STATISTICS @ Sunflowers Apparel
EG12.3 Chi-Square Test of Independence 515 Revisited 561
EG12.4 McNemar Test for the Difference Between Two SUMMARY 562
Proportions (Related Samples) 515
KEY EQUATIONS 563
EG12.5 Chi-Square Test for the Variance or Standard
Deviation 516 KEY TERMS 564
EG12.6 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test: Nonparametric Analysis CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 564
for Two Independent Populations 516 MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 569
EG12.7 Kruskal-Wallis Rank Test: Nonparametric Analysis DIGITAL CASE 569
for the One-Way ANOVA 517 REFERENCES 570
CHAPTER 12 MINITAB GUIDE 518 CHAPTER 13 EXCEL GUIDE 571
MG12.1 Chi-Square Test for the Difference Between Two EG13.1 Types of Regression Models 571
Proportions 518 EG13.2 Determining the Simple Linear Regression
MG12.2 Chi-Square Test for Differences Among More Equation 571
Than Two Proportions 518 EG13.3 Measures of Variation 572
MG12.3 Chi-Square Test of Independence 518 EG13.4 Assumptions 572
MG12.4 McNemar Test for the Difference Between Two EG13.5 Residual Analysis 572
Proportions (Related Samples) 518 EG13.6 Measuring Autocorrelation: The Durbin-Watson
MG12.5 Chi-Square Test for the Variance or Standard Statistic 572
Deviation 518 EG13.7 Inferences About the Slope and Correlation
MG12.6 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test: Nonparametric Coefficient 573
Analysis for Two Independent Populations 519 EG13.8 Estimation of Mean Values and Prediction
EG12.7 Kruskal-Wallis Rank Test: Nonparametric Analysis of Individual Values 573
for the One-Way ANOVA 519 CHAPTER 13 MINITAB GUIDE 574
MG13.1 Types of Regression Models 574
MG13.2 Determining the Simple Linear Regression
13 Simple Linear Equation 574
MG13.3 Measures of Variation 574
Regression 520 MG13.4 Assumptions 574
MG13.5 Residual Analysis 574
USING STATISTICS @ Sunflowers Apparel 521
MG13.6 Measuring Autocorrelation: The Durbin-Watson
13.1 Types of Regression Models 522 Statistic 575
13.2 Determining the Simple Linear Regression Equation 524 MG13.7 Inferences About the Slope and Correlation
The Least-Squares Method 525 Coefficient 575
Predictions in Regression Analysis: Interpolation Versus MG13.8 Estimation of Mean Values and Prediction
Extrapolation 527 of Individual Values 575
Computing the Y Intercept, b0 and the Slope, b1 528
VISUAL EXPLORATIONS: Exploring Simple Linear Regression
Coefficients 530 14 Introduction to Multiple
13.3 Measures of Variation 533
Computing the Sum of Squares 533
Regression 576
The Coefficient of Determination 534 USING STATISTICS @ OmniFoods 577
Standard Error of the Estimate 536
14.1 Developing a Multiple Regression Model 578
13.4 Assumptions 538 Visualizing Multiple Regression Data 578
13.5 Residual Analysis 539 Interpreting the Regression Coefficients 578
Evaluating the Assumptions 539 Predicting the Dependent Variable Y 581
13.6 Measuring Autocorrelation: The Durbin-Watson 14.2 r2, Adjusted r2, and the Overall F Test 584
Statistic 543 Coefficient of Multiple Determination 584
Residual Plots to Detect Autocorrelation 543 Adjusted r2 585
The Durbin-Watson Statistic 544 Test for the Significance of the Overall Multiple
13.7 Inferences About the Slope and Correlation Coefficient 547 Regression Model 585
t Test for the Slope 548 14.3 Residual Analysis for the Multiple Regression
F Test for the Slope 549 Model 588
 CONTENTS xix

14.4 Inferences Concerning the Population Regression 15.3 Collinearity 642

Coefficients 590 15.4 Model Building 644
Tests of Hypothesis 590 The Stepwise Regression Approach to Model Building 646
Confidence Interval Estimation 591 The Best-Subsets Approach to Model Building 647
14.5 Testing Portions of the Multiple Regression Model Validation 652
Model 593 15.5 Pitfalls in Multiple Regression and Ethical Issues 653
Coefficients of Partial Determination 597 Pitfalls in Multiple Regression 653
14.6 Using Dummy Variables and Interaction Terms in Ethical Issues 654
Regression Models 599 15.6 ( Online Topic) Influence Analysis 654
Dummy variables 599
Interactions 602 15.7 ( Online Topic) Analytics and Data Mining 654
14.7 Logistic Regression 609 USING STATISTICS @ WHIT-DT Revisited 654
SUMMARY 655
USING STATISTICS @ OmniFoods Revisited 614
KEY EQUATIONS 656
SUMMARY 614
KEY TERMS 656
KEY EQUATIONS 616
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 656
KEY TERMS 617
THE MOUNTAIN STATES POTATO COMPANY 658
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 617
DIGITAL CASE 659
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 620
REFERENCES 659
DIGITAL CASE 620
CHAPTER 15 EXCEL GUIDE 660
REFERENCES 621
EG15.1 The Quadratic Regression Model 660
CHAPTER 14 EXCEL GUIDE 622
EG15.2 Using Transformations in Regression Models 660
EG14.1 Developing a Multiple Regression Model 622
EG15.3 Collinearity 660
EG14.2 r2, Adjusted r2, and the Overall F Test 623
EG15.4 Model Building 660
EG14.3 Residual Analysis for the Multiple Regression
Model 623 CHAPTER 15 MINITAB GUIDE 661
EG14.4 Inferences Concerning the Population Regression MG15.1 The Quadratic Regression Model 661
Coefficients 624 MG15.2 Using Transformations in Regression Models 662
EG14.5 Testing Portions of the Multiple Regression MG15.3 Collinearity 662
Model 624 MG15.4 Model Building 662
EG14.6 Using Dummy Variables and Interaction Terms
in Regression Models 624
EG14.7 Logistic Regression 624
CHAPTER 14 MINITAB GUIDE 625
MG14.1 Developing a Multiple Regression Model 625
16 Time-Series Forecasting 664
MG14.2 r2, Adjusted r2, and the Overall F Test 626 USING STATISTICS @ The Principled 665
MG14.3 Residual Analysis for the Multiple Regression 16.1 The Importance of Business Forecasting 666
Model 626
16.2 Component Factors of Time-Series Models 666
MG14.4 Inferences Concerning the Population Regression
Coefficients 626 16.3 Smoothing an Annual Time Series 667
MG14.5 Testing Portions of the Multiple Regression Moving Averages 668
Model 626 Exponential Smoothing 670
MG14.6 Using Dummy Variables and Interaction Terms 16.4 Least-Squares Trend Fitting and Forecasting 673
in Regression Models 626 The Linear Trend Model 673
MG14.7 Logistic Regression 627 The Quadratic Trend Model 675
The Exponential Trend Model 676
Model Selection Using First, Second, and Percentage
15 Multiple Regression Model Differences 678
16.5 Autoregressive Modeling for Trend Fitting and
Building 628 Forecasting 684
16.6 Choosing an Appropriate Forecasting Model 692
USING STATISTICS @ WHIT-DT 629 Performing a Residual Analysis 693
15.1 The Quadratic Regression Model 630 Measuring the Magnitude of the Residuals Through Squared
Finding the Regression Coefficients and Predicting Y 630 or Absolute Differences 693
Testing for the Significance of the Quadratic Model 633 Using the Principle of Parsimony 694
Testing the Quadratic Effect 633 A Comparison of Four Forecasting Methods 694
The Coefficient of Multiple Determination 635 16.7 Time-Series Forecasting of Seasonal Data 696
15.2 Using Transformations in Regression Models 638 Least-Squares Forecasting with Monthly or Quarterly Data 697
The Square-Root Transformation 638 16.8 Online Topic: Index Numbers 703
The Log Transformation 639 THINK ABOUT THIS: Let the Model User Beware 703
xx CONTENTS

USING STATISTICS @ The Principled Revisited 703 MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 753
SUMMARY 704 REFERENCES 754
KEY EQUATIONS 704 CHAPTER 17 EXCEL GUIDE 755
KEY TERMS 705 EG17.1 The Theory of Control Charts 755
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 706 EG17.2 Control Chart for the Proportion: The p Chart 755
MANAGING ASHLAND MULTICOMM SERVICES 707 EG17.3 The Red Bead Experiment: Understanding Process
Variability 756
DIGITAL CASE 708
EG17.4 Control Chart for an Area of Opportunity: The c
REFERENCES 708 Chart 756
CHAPTER 16 EXCEL GUIDE 709 EG17.5 Control Charts for the Range and the Mean 757
EG16.1 The Importance of Business Forecasting 709 EG17.6 Process Capability 758
EG16.2 Component Factors of Time-Series Models 709 EG17.7 Total Quality Management 759
EG16.3 Smoothing an Annual Time Series 709 EG17.8 Six Sigma 759
EG16.4 Least-Squares Trend Fitting and Forecasting 710 CHAPTER 17 MINITAB GUIDE 759
EG16.5 Autoregressive Modeling for Trend Fitting and MG17.1 The Theory of Control Charts 759
Forecasting 711 MG17.2 Control Chart for the Proportion:
EG16.6 Choosing an Appropriate Forecasting Model 711 The p Chart 759
EG16.7 Time-Series Forecasting of Seasonal Data 712 MG17.3 The Red Bead Experiment: Understanding
CHAPTER 16 MINITAB GUIDE 713 Process Variability 759
MG16.1 The Importance of Business Forecasting 713 MG17.4 Control Chart for an Area of Opportunity: The c
MG16.2 Component Factors of Time-Series Models 713 Chart 756
MG16.3 Smoothing an Annual Time Series 713 MG17.5 Control Charts for the Range and the Mean 760
MG16.4 Least-Squares Trend Fitting and Forecasting 713 MG17.6 Process Capability 761
MG16.5 Autoregressive Modeling for Trend Fitting and MG17.7 Total Quality Management 761
Forecasting 714 MG17.8 Six Sigma 761
MG16.6 Choosing an Appropriate Forecasting Model 714
MG16.7 Time-Series Forecasting of Seasonal Data 714

18 A Roadmap for Analyzing

17 Statistical Applications in Data 762
Quality Management 716 USING STATISTICS @ YourBusiness 763
USING STATISTICS @ Beachcomber Hotel 717 18.1 Analyzing Numerical Variables 765
How to Describe the Characteristics of a Numerical
17.1 The Theory of Control Charts 718 Variable 766
17.2 Control Chart for the Proportion: The p Chart 720 How to Draw Conclusions About the Population Mean
17.3 The Red Bead Experiment: Understanding Process or Standard Deviation 766
Variability 726 How to Determine Whether the Mean or Standard Deviation
Differs Depending on the Group 766
17.4 Control Chart for an Area of Opportunity: The c
Chart 728 How to Determine Which Factors Affect the Value of
a Variable 767
17.5 Control Charts for the Range and the Mean 732 How to Predict the Value of a Variable Based on the Value
The R Chart 732 of Other Variables 767
The X Chart 734 How to Determine Whether the Values of a Variable Are
17.6 Process Capability 737 Stable over Time 767
Customer Satisfaction and Specification Limits 737 18.2 Analyzing Categorical Variables 767
Capability Indices 739 How to Describe the Proportion of Items of Interest in Each
CPL, CPU, and Cpk 740 Category 768
17.7 Total Quality Management 742 How to Reach Conclusions About the Proportion of Items
of Interest 768
17.8 Six Sigma 744 How to Determine Whether the Proportion of Items
The DMAIC Model 744 of Interest Differs Depending on the Group 768
Roles in a Six Sigma Organization 745 How to Predict the Proportion of Items of Interest Based
USING STATISTICS @ Beachcomber Hotel Revisited 746 on the Value of Other Variables 768
SUMMARY 747 How to Determine Whether the Proportion of Items
of Interest Is Stable over Time 769
KEY EQUATIONS 747
KEY TERMS 748 USING STATISTICS @ YourBusiness Revisited 769
CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 748 DIGITAL CASE 769

THE HARNSWELL SEWING MACHINE COMPANY CASE 751 CHAPTER REVIEW PROBLEMS 769
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his opinion, had done, and would do, more pecuniary damage
to New Orleans, than the British army would have done if they
had conquered it in 1815. He verified this opinion by referring to
the immense dividend, upwards of half a million a year, drawn
from the branch there; the immense amounts of specie drawn
from it; the produce carried off to meet the domestic bills of
exchange; and the eight and a half millions of debt existing
there, of which five millions were created in the last two years
to answer electioneering purposes, and the collection of which
must paralyze, for years, the growth of the city. From further
damage to New Orleans, the veto message would save that
great city. Jackson would be her saviour a second time. He
would save her from the British bank as he had done from the
British army; and if any federal bank must be there, let it be an
independent one; a separate and distinct bank, which would
save to that city, and to the Valley of the Mississippi, of which it
was the great and cherished emporium, the command of their
own moneyed system, the regulation of their own commerce
and finances, and the accommodation of their own citizens.
"Mr. B. addressed himself to the Jackson bank men, present
and absent. They might continue to be for a bank and for
Jackson; but they could not be for this bank, and for Jackson.
This bank is now the open, as it long has been the secret,
enemy of Jackson. It is now in the hands of his enemies,
wielding all its own money—wielding even the revenues and the
credit of the Union—wielding twelve millions of dollars, half of
which were intended to be paid to the public creditors on the
first day of July, but which the bank has retained to itself by a
false representation in the pretended behalf of the merchants.
All this moneyed power, with an organization which pervades
the continent, working every where with unseen hands, is now
operating against the President; and it is impossible to be in
favor of this power and also in favor of him at the same time.
Choose ye between them! To those who think a bank to be
indispensable, other alternatives present themselves. They are
not bound nor wedded to this. New American banks may be
created. Read, sir, Henry Parnell. See his invincible reasoning,
and indisputable facts, to show that the Bank of England is too
powerful for the monarchy of Great Britain! Study his plan for
breaking up that gigantic institution, and establishing three or
four independent banks in its place, which would be so much
less dangerous to liberty, and so much safer and better for the
people. In these alternatives, the friends of Jackson, who are in
favor of national banks, may find the accomplishment of their
wishes without a sacrifice of their principles, and without
committing the suicidal solecism of fighting against him while
professing to be for him.
"Mr. B. addressed himself to the West—the great, the
generous, the brave, the patriotic, the devoted West. It was the
selected field of battle. There the combined forces, the national
republicans, and the national republican bank, were to work
together, and to fight together. The holy allies understand each
other. They are able to speak in each other's names, and to
promise and threaten in each other's behalf. For this campaign
the bank created its debt of thirty millions in the West; in this
campaign the associate leaders use that debt for their own
purposes. Vote for Jackson! and suits, judgments, and
executions shall sweep, like the besom of destruction,
throughout the vast region of the West! Vote against him! and
indefinite indulgence is basely promised! The debt itself, it is
pretended, will, perhaps, be forgiven; or, at all events, hardly
ever collected! Thus, an open bribe of thirty millions is virtually
offered to the West; and, lest the seductions of the bribe may
not be sufficient on one hand, the terrors of destruction are
brandished on the other! Wretched, infatuated men, cried Mr. B.
Do they think the West is to be bought? Little do they know of
the generous sons of that magnificent region! poor, indeed, in
point of money, but rich in all the treasures of the heart! rich in
all the qualities of freemen and republicans! rich in all the noble
feelings which look with equal scorn upon a bribe or a threat.
The hunter of the West, with moccasins on his feet, and a
hunting shirt drawn around him, would repel with indignation
the highest bribe that the bank could offer him. The wretch
(said Mr. Benton, with a significant gesture) who dared to offer
it, would expiate the insult with his blood.
"Mr. B. rapidly summed up with a view of the dangerous
power of the bank, and the present audacity of her conduct.
She wielded a debt of seventy millions of dollars, with an
organization which extended to every part of the Union, and she
was sole mistress of the moneyed power of the republic. She
had thrown herself into the political arena, to control and
govern the presidential election. If she succeeded in that
election, she would wish to consolidate her power by getting
control of all other elections. Governors of States, judges of the
courts, representatives and senators in Congress, all must
belong to her. The Senate especially must belong to her; for,
there lay the power to confirm nominations and to try
impeachments; and, to get possession of the Senate, the
legislatures of a majority of the States would have to be
acquired. The war is now upon Jackson, and if he is defeated,
all the rest will fall an easy prey. What individual could stand in
the States against the power of the bank, and that bank flushed
with a victory over the conqueror of the conquerors of
Bonaparte? The whole government would fall into the hands of
this moneyed power. An oligarchy would be immediately
established; and that oligarchy, in a few generations, would
ripen into a monarchy. All governments must have their end; in
the lapse of time, this republic must perish; but that time, he
now trusted, was far distant; and when it comes, it should come
in glory, and not in shame. Rome had her Pharsalia, and Greece
her Chæronea; and this republic, more illustrious in her birth
than Greece or Rome, was entitled to a death as glorious as
theirs. She would not die by poison—perish in corruption—no! A
field of arms, and of glory, should be her end. She had a right to
a battle—a great, immortal battle—where heroes and patriots
could die with the liberty which they scorned to survive, and
consecrate, with their blood, the spot which marked a nation's
fall.
"After Mr. B. had concluded his remarks, Mr. Clay rose and
said:—
"The senator from Missouri expresses dissatisfaction that the
speeches of some senators should fill the galleries. He has no
ground for uneasiness on this score. For if it be the fortune of
some senators to fill the galleries when they speak, it is the
fortune of others to empty them, with whatever else they fill the
chamber. The senator from Missouri has every reason to be well
satisfied with the effect of his performance to-day; for among
his auditors is a lady of great literary eminence. [Pointing to
Mrs. Royal.] The senator intimates, that in my remarks on the
message of the President, I was deficient in a proper degree of
courtesy towards that officer. Whether my deportment here be
decorous or not, I should not choose to be decided upon by the
gentleman from Missouri. I answered the President's arguments,
and gave my own views of the facts and inferences introduced
by him into his message. The President states that the bank has
an injurious operation on the interests of the West, and dwells
upon its exhausting effects, its stripping the country of its
currency, &c., and upon these views and statements I
commented in a manner which the occasion called for. But, if I
am to be indoctrinated in the rules of decorum, I shall not look
to the gentleman for instruction. I shall not strip him of his
Indian blankets to go to Boon's Lick for lessons in deportment,
nor yet to the Court of Versailles, which he eulogizes. There are
some peculiar reasons why I should not go to that senator for
my views of decorum, in regard to my bearing towards the chief
magistrate, and why he is not a fit instructor. I never had any
personal rencontre with the President of the United States. I
never complained of any outrages on my person committed by
him. I never published any bulletins respecting his private
brawls. The gentleman will understand my allusion. [Mr. B. said:
He will understand you, sir, and so will you him.] I never
complained, that while a brother of mine was down on the
ground, senseless or dead, he received another blow. I have
never made any declaration like these relative to the individual
who is President. There is also a singular prophecy as to the
consequences of the election of this individual, which far
surpasses, in evil foreboding, whatever I may have ever said in
regard to his election. I never made any prediction so sinister,
nor made any declaration so harsh, as that which is contained in
the prediction to which I allude. I never declared my
apprehension and belief, that if he were elected, we should be
obliged to legislate with pistols and dirks by our side. At this last
stage of the session I do not rise to renew the discussion of this
question. I only rose to give the senator from Missouri a full
acquittance, and I trust there will be no further occasion for
opening a new account with him.
"Mr. B. replied. It is true, sir, that I had an affray with General
Jackson, and that I did complain of his conduct. We fought, sir;
and we fought, I hope, like men. When the explosion was over,
there remained no ill will, on either side. No vituperation or
system of petty persecution was kept up between us. Yes, sir, it
is true, that I had the personal difficulty, which the senator from
Kentucky has had the delicacy to bring before the Senate. But
let me tell the senator from Kentucky there is no 'adjourned
question of veracity' between me and General Jackson. All
difficulty between us ended with the conflict; and a few months
after it, I believe that either party would cheerfully have relieved
the other from any peril; and now we shake hands and are
friendly when we meet. I repeat, sir, that there is no 'adjourned
question of veracity' between me and General Jackson, standing
over for settlement. If there had been, a gulf would have
separated us as deep as hell.
"Mr. B. then referred to the prediction alleged by Mr. Clay, to
have been made by him. I have seen, he said, a placard, first
issued in Missouri, and republished lately. It first appeared in
1825; and stated that I had said, in a public address, that if
General Jackson should be elected, we must be guarded with
pistols and dirks to defend ourselves while legislating here. This
went the rounds of the papers at the time. A gentleman, well
acquainted in the State of Missouri (Col. Lawless), published a
handbill denying the truth of the statement, and calling upon
any person in the State to name the time and place, when and
where, any such address had been heard from me, or any such
declaration made. Colonel Lawless was perfectly familiar with
the campaign, but he could never meet with a single individual,
man, woman, or child, in the State, who could recollect to have
ever heard any such remarks from me. No one came forward to
reply to the call. No one had ever heard me make the
declaration which was charged upon me. The same thing has
lately been printed here, and, in the night, stuck up in a placard
upon the posts and walls of this city. While its author remained
concealed, it was impossible for me to hold him to account, nor
could I make him responsible, who, in the dark, sticks it to the
posts and walls: but since it is in open day introduced into this
chamber I am enabled to meet it as it deserves to be met. I see
who it is that uses it here, and to his face [pointing to Mr. Clay]
I am enabled to pronounce it, as I now do, an atrocious
calumny.
"Mr. Clay.—The assertion that there is 'an adjourned question
of veracity' between me and Gen. Jackson, is, whether made by
man or master absolutely false. The President made a certain
charge against me, and he referred to witnesses to prove it. I
denied the truth of the charge. He called upon his witness to
prove it. I leave it to the country to say, whether that witness
sustained the truth of the President's allegation. That witness is
now on his passage to St. Petersburg, with a commission in his
pocket. [Mr. B. here said aloud, in his place, the Mississippi and
the fisheries—Mr. Adams and the fisheries—every body
understands it.] Mr. C. said, I do not yet understand the senator.
He then remarked upon the 'prediction' which the senator from
Missouri had disclaimed. Can he, said Mr. C, look to me, and say
that he never used the language attributed to him in the placard
which he refers to? He says, Col. Lawless denies that he used
the words in the State of Missouri. Can you look me in the face,
sir [addressing Mr. B.], and say that you never used that
language out of the State of Missouri?
"Mr. B. I look, sir, and repeat that it is an atrocious calumny;
and I will pin it to him who repeats it here.
"Mr. Clay. Then I declare before the Senate that you said to
me the very words—
"[Mr. B. in his place, while Mr. Clay was yet speaking, several
times loudly repeated the word 'false, false, false.']
Mr. Clay said, I fling back the charge of atrocious calumny
upon the senator from Missouri.
A call to order was here heard from several senators.
"The President, pro tem., said, the senator from Kentucky is
not in order, and must take his seat.
"Mr. Clay. Will the Chair state the point of order?
"The Chair, said Mr. Tazewell (the President pro tem.), can
enter in no explanations with the senator.
"Mr. Clay. I shall be heard. I demand to know what point of
order can be taken against me, which was not equally
applicable to the senator from Missouri.
"The President, pro tem., stated, that he considered the
whole discussion as out of order. He would not have permitted
it, had he been in the chair at its commencement.
"Mr. Poindexter said, he was in the chair at the
commencement of the discussion, and did not then see fit to
check it. But he was now of the opinion that it was not in order.
 "Mr. B. I apologize to the Senate for the manner in which I
have spoken; but not to the senator from Kentucky.
"Mr. Clay. To the Senate I also offer an apology. To the
senator from Missouri none.
"The question was here called for, by several senators, and it
was taken, as heretofore reported."

The conclusion of the debate on the side of the bank was in the
most impressive form to the fears and apprehensions of the country,
and well calculated to alarm and rouse a community.' Mr. Webster
concluded with this peroration, presenting a direful picture of
distress if the veto was sustained, and portrayed the death of the
constitution before it had attained the fiftieth year of its age. He
concluded thus—little foreseeing in how few years he was to invoke
the charity of the world's silence and oblivion for the institution
which his rhetoric then exalted into a great and beneficent power,
indispensable to the well working of the government, and the well
conducting of their affairs by all the people:

"Mr. President, we have arrived at a new epoch. We are

entering on experiments with the government and the
constitution of the country, hitherto untried, and of fearful and
appalling aspect. This message calls us to the contemplation of
a future, which little resembles the past. Its principles are at
war with all that public opinion has sustained, and all which the
experience of the government has sanctioned. It denies first
principles. It contradicts truths heretofore received as
indisputable. It denies to the judiciary the interpretation of law,
and demands to divide with Congress the origination of
statutes. It extends the grasp of Executive pretension over
every power of the government. But this is not all. It presents
the Chief Magistrate of the Union in the attitude of arguing
away the powers of that government over which he has been
chosen to preside; and adopting, for this purpose, modes of
reasoning which, even under the influence of all proper feeling
 towards high official station, it is difficult to regard as
respectable. It appeals to every prejudice which may betray
men into a mistaken view of their own interests; and to every
passion which may lead them to disobey the impulses of their
understanding. It urges all the specious topics of State rights,
and national encroachment, against that which a great majority
of the States have affirmed to be rightful, and in which all of
them have acquiesced. It sows, in an unsparing manner, the
seeds of jealousy and ill-will against that government of which
its author is the official head. It raises a cry that liberty is in
danger, at the very moment when it puts forth claims to power
heretofore unknown and unheard of. It affects alarm for the
public freedom, when nothing so much endangers that freedom
as its own unparalleled pretences. This, even, is not all. It
manifestly seeks to influence the poor against the rich. It
wantonly attacks whole classes of the people, for the purpose of
turning against them the prejudices and resentments of other
classes. It is a state paper which finds no topic too exciting for
its use; no passion too inflammable for its address and its
solicitation. Such is this message. It remains, now, for the
people of the United States to choose between the principles
here avowed and their government. These cannot subsist
together. The one or the other must be rejected. If the
sentiments of the message shall receive general approbation,
the constitution will have perished even earlier than the moment
which its enemies originally allowed for the termination of its
existence. It will not have survived to its fiftieth year."

On the other hand, Mr. White, of Tennessee, exalted the merit of

the veto message above all the acts of General Jackson's life, and
claimed for it a more enduring fame, and deeper gratitude than for
the greatest of his victories: and concluded his speech thus:

"When the excitement of the time in which we act shall have

passed away, and the historian and biographer shall be
employed in giving his account of the acts of our most
 distinguished public men, and comes to the name of Andrew
Jackson; when he shall have recounted all the great and good
deeds done by this man in the course of a long and eventful life,
and the circumstances under which this message was
communicated shall have been stated, the conclusion will be,
that, in doing this, he has shown a willingness to risk more to
promote the happiness of his fellow-men, and to secure their
liberties, than by the doing of any other act whatever."

And such, in my opinion, will be the judgment of posterity—the

judgment of posterity, if furnished with the material to appreciate
the circumstances under which he acted when signing the message
which was to decide the question of supremacy between the bank
and the government.
 CHAPTER LXIX.
THE PROTECTIVE SYSTEM.
The cycle had come round which, periodically, and once in four
years, brings up a presidential election and a tariff discussion. The
two events seemed to be inseparable; and this being the fourth year
from the great tariff debate of 1828, and the fourth year from the
last presidential election, and being the long session which precedes
the election, it was the one in regular course in which the candidates
and their friends make the greatest efforts to operate upon public
opinion through the measures which they propose, or oppose in
Congress. Added to this, the election being one on which not only a
change of political parties depended, but also a second trial of the
election in the House of Representatives in 1824-'25, in which Mr.
Adams and Mr. Clay triumphed over General Jackson, with the
advantage on their side now of both being in Congress: for these
reasons this session became the most prolific of party topics, and of
party contests, of any one ever seen in the annals of our Congress.
And certainly there were large subjects to be brought before the
people, and great talents to appear in their support and defence.
The renewal of the national bank charter—the continuance of the
protective system—internal improvement by the federal government
—division of the public land money, or of the lands themselves—
colonization society—extension of pension list—Georgia and the
Cherokees—Georgia and the Supreme Court—imprisoned
missionaries—were all brought forward, and pressed with zeal, by
the party out of power; and pressed in a way to show their
connection with the presidential canvass, and the reliance upon
them to govern its result. The party in power were chiefly on the
defensive; and it was the complete civil representation of a military
attack and defence of a fortified place—a siege—with its open and
covert attacks on one side, its repulses and sallies on the other—its
sappings and minings, as well as its open thundering assaults. And
this continued for seven long months—from December to July; fierce
in the beginning, and becoming more so from day to day until the
last hour of the last day of the exhausted session. It was the most
fiery and eventful session that I had then seen—or since seen,
except one—the panic session of 1834-'35.
The two leading measures in this plan of operations—the bank
and the tariff—were brought forward simultaneously and quickly—on
the same day, and under the same lead. The memorial for the
renewal of the bank charter was presented in the Senate on the 9th
day of January: on the same day, and as soon as it was referred, Mr.
Clay submitted a resolution in relation to the tariff, and delivered a
speech of three days' duration in support of the American system.
The President, in his message, and in view of the approaching
extinction of the public debt—then reduced to an event of certainty
within the ensuing year—recommended the abolition of duties on
numerous articles of necessity or comfort, not produced at home.
Mr. Clay proposed to make the reduction in subordination to the
preservation of the "American system" and this opened the whole
question of free trade and protection; and occasioned that field to be
trod over again with all the vigor of a fresh exploration. Mr. Clay
opened his great speech with a retrospect of what the condition of
the country was for seven years before the tarriff of 1824, and what
it had been since—the first a period of unprecedented calamity, the
latter of equally unprecedented prosperity:—and he made the two
conditions equally dependent upon the absence and presence of the
protective system. He said:

"Eight years ago, it was my painful duty to present to the

other House of Congress an unexaggerated picture of the
general distress pervading the whole land. We must all yet
remember some of its frightful features. We all know that the
people were then oppressed and borne down by an enormous
load of debt; that the value of property was at the lowest point
 of depression; that ruinous sales and sacrifices were every
where made of real estate; that stop laws and relief laws and
paper money were adopted to save the people from impending
destruction; that a deficit in the public revenue existed, which
compelled government to seize upon, and divert from its
legitimate object, the appropriation to the sinking fund, to
redeem the national debt; and that our commerce and
navigation were threatened with a complete paralysis. In short,
sir, if I were to select any term of seven years since the
adoption of the present constitution, which exhibited a scene of
the most wide-spread dismay and desolation, it would be
exactly the term of seven years which immediately preceded the
establishment of the tariff of 1824."

This was a faithful picture of that calamitous period, but the

argument derived from it was a two-edged sword, which cut, and
deeply, into another measure, also lauded as the cause of the public
prosperity. These seven years of national distress which immediately
preceded the tariff of 1824, were also the same seven years which
immediately followed the establishment of the national bank; and
which, at the time it was chartered, was to be the remedy for all the
distress under which the country labored: besides, the protective
system was actually commenced in the year 1816—
contemporaneously with the establishment of the national bank.
Before 1816, protection to home industry had been an incident to
the levy of revenue; but in 1816 it became an object. Mr. Clay thus
deduced the origin and progress of the protective policy:

"It began on the ever memorable 4th day of July—the 4th of

July, 1789. The second act which stands recorded in the statute
book, bearing the illustrious signature of George Washington,
laid the corner stone of the whole system. That there might be
no mistake about the matter, it was then solemly proclaimed to
the American people and to the world, that it was necessary for
"the encouragement and protection of manufactures," that
duties should be laid. It is in vain to urge the small amount of
the measure of protection then extended. The great principle
was then established by the fathers of the constitution, with the
father of his country at their head. And it cannot now be
questioned, that, if the government had not then been new and
the subject untried, a greater measure of protection would have
been applied, if it had been supposed necessary. Shortly after,
the master minds of Jefferson and Hamilton were brought to act
on this interesting subject. Taking views of it appertaining to the
departments of foreign affairs and of the treasury, which they
respectively filled, they presented, severally, reports which yet
remain monuments of their profound wisdom, and came to the
same conclusion of protection to American industry. Mr.
Jefferson argued that foreign restrictions, foreign prohibitions,
and foreign high duties, ought to be met, at home, by American
restrictions, American prohibitions, and American high duties.
Mr. Hamilton, surveying the entire ground, and looking at the
inherent nature of the subject, treated it with an ability which, if
ever equalled, has not been surpassed, and earnestly
recommended protection.
"The wars of the French revolution commenced about this
period, and streams of gold poured into the United States
through a thousand channels, opened or enlarged by the
successful commerce which our neutrality enabled us to
prosecute. We forgot, or overlooked, in the general prosperity,
the necessity of encouraging our domestic manufactures. Then
came the edicts of Napoleon, and the British orders in council;
and our embargo, non-intercourse, non-importation, and war,
followed in rapid succession. These national measures,
amounting to a total suspension, for the period of their
duration, of our foreign commerce, afforded the most
efficacious encouragement to American manufactures; and
accordingly, they every where sprung up. Whilst these measures
of restriction and this state of war continued the manufacturers
were stimulated in their enterprises by every assurance of
support, by public sentiment, and by legislative resolves. It was
about that period (1808) that South Carolina bore her high
testimony to the wisdom of the policy, in an act of her
legislature, the preamble of which, now before me, reads:
'Whereas the establishment and encouragement of domestic
manufactures is conducive to the interest of a State, by adding
new incentives to industry, and as being the means of
disposing, to advantage, the surplus productions of the
agriculturist: And whereas, in the present unexampled state of
the world, their establishment in our country is not only
expedient, but politic, in rendering us independent of foreign
nations.' The legislature, not being competent to afford the
most efficacious aid, by imposing duties on foreign rival articles,
proceeded to incorporate a company.
"Peace, under the Treaty of Ghent, returned in 1815, but
there did not return with it the golden days which preceded the
edicts levelled at our commerce by Great Britain and France. It
found all Europe tranquilly resuming the arts and the business
of civil life. It found Europe no longer the consumer of our
surplus, and the employer of our navigation, but excluding, or
heavily burdening, almost all the productions of our agriculture
and our rivals in manufactures, in navigation, and in commerce.
It found our country, in short, in a situation totally different from
all the past—new and untried. It became necessary to adapt our
laws, and especially our laws of impost, to the new
circumstances in which we found ourselves. It has been said
that the tariff of 1816 was a measure of mere revenue; and that
it only reduced the war duties to a peace standard. It is true
that the question then was, how much, and in what way, should
the double duties of the war be reduced? Now, also, the
question is, on what articles shall the duties be reduced so as to
subject the amount of the future revenue to the wants of the
government? Then it was deemed an inquiry of the first
importance, as it should be now, how the reduction should be
made, so as to secure proper encouragement to domestic
industry. That this was a leading object in the arrangement of
the tariff of 1816, I well remember, and it is demonstrated by
the language of Mr. Dallas.
"The subject of the American system was again brought up in
1820, by the bill reported by the chairman of the Committee on
Manufactures, now a member of the bench of the Supreme
Court of the United States, and the principle was successfully
maintained by the representatives of the people; but the bill
which they passed was defeated in the Senate. It was revived in
1824, the whole ground carefully and deliberately explored, and
the bill then introduced, receiving all the sanctions of the
constitution. This act of 1824 needed amendments in some
particulars, which were attempted in 1828, but ended in some
injuries to the system; and now the whole aim was to save an
existing system—not to create a new one."

And he summed up his policy thus:

"1. That the policy which we have been considering ought to

continue to be regarded as the genuine American system.
"2. That the free trade system, which is proposed as its
substitute, ought really to be considered as the British colonial
system.
"3. That the American system is beneficial to all parts of the
Union, and absolutely necessary to much the larger portion.
"4. That the price of the great staple of cotton, and of all our
chief productions of agriculture, has been sustained and upheld,
and a decline averted by the protective system.
"5. That, if the foreign demand for cotton has been at all
diminished by the operation of that system, the diminution has
been more than compensated in the additional demand created
at home.
"6. That the constant tendency of the system, by creating
competition among ourselves, and between American and
 European industry, reciprocally acting upon each other, is to
reduce prices of manufactured objects.
"7. That, in point of fact, objects within the scope of the
policy of protection have greatly fallen in price.
"8. That if, in a season of peace, these benefits are
experienced, in a season of war, when the foreign supply might
be cut off, they would be much more extensively felt.
"9. And, finally, that the substitution of the British colonial
system for the American system, without benefiting any section
of the Union, by subjecting us to a foreign legislation, regulated
by foreign interests, would lead to the prostration of our
manufactures, general impoverishment, and ultimate ruin."

Mr. Clay was supported in his general views by many able

speakers—among them, Dickerson and Frelinghuysen of New Jersey;
Ewing of Ohio; Holmes of Maine; Bell of New Hampshire; Hendricks
of Indiana; Webster and Silsbee of Massachusetts; Robbins and
Knight of Rhode Island; Wilkins and Dallas of Pennsylvania; Sprague
of Maine; Clayton of Delaware; Chambers of Maryland; Foot of
Connecticut. On the other hand the speakers in opposition to the
protective policy were equally numerous, ardent and able. They
were: Messrs. Hayne and Miller of South Carolina; Brown and
Mangum of North Carolina; Forsyth and Troup of Georgia; Grundy
and White of Tennessee; Hill of New Hampshire; Kane of Illinois;
Benton of Missouri; King and Moore of Alabama; Poindexter of
Mississippi; Tazewell and Tyler of Virginia; General Samuel Smith of
Maryland. I limit the enumeration to the Senate. In the House the
subject was still more fully debated, according to its numbers; and
like the bank question, gave rise to heat; and was kept alive to the
last day.
General Smith of Maryland, took up the question at once as
bearing upon the harmony and stability of the Union—as unfit to be
pressed on that account as well as for its own demerits—avowed
himself a friend to incidental protection, for which he had always
voted, and even voted for the act of 1816—which he considered
going far enough; and insisted that all "manufacturers" were doing
well under it, and did not need the acts of 1824 and 1828, which
were made for "capitalists"—to enable them to engage in
manufacturing; and who had not the requisite skill and care, and
suffered, and called upon Congress for more assistance. He said:

"We have arrived at a crisis. Yes, Mr. President, at a crisis

more appalling than a day of battle. I adjure the Committee on
Manufactures to pause—to reflect on the dissatisfaction of all
the South. South Carolina has expressed itself strongly against
the tariff of 1828—stronger than the other States are willing to
speak. But, sir, the whole of the South feel deeply the
oppression of that tariff. In this respect there is no difference of
opinion. The South—the whole Southern States—all, consider it
as oppressive. They have not yet spoken; but when they do
speak, it will be with a voice that will not implore, but will
demand redress. How much better, then, to grant redress? How
much better that the Committee on Manufactures heal the
wound which has been inflicted? I want nothing that shall injure
the manufacturer. I only want justice.
"I am, Mr. President, one of the few survivors of those who
fought in the war of the revolution. We then thought we fought
for liberty—for equal rights. We fought against taxation, the
proceeds of which were for the benefit of others. Where is the
difference, if the people are to be taxed by the manufacturers or
by any others? I say manufacturers—and why do I say so?
When the Senate met, there was a strong disposition with all
parties to ameliorate the tariff of 1828; but I now see a change,
which makes me almost despair of any thing effectual being
accomplished. Even the small concessions made by the senator
from Kentucky [Mr. Clay] have been reprobated by the lobby
members, the agents of the manufacturers. I am told they have
put their fiat on any change whatever, and hence, as a
consequence, the change in the course and language of
 gentlemen, which almost precludes all hope. Those interested
men hang on the Committee on Manufactures like an incubus. I
say to that committee, depend upon your own good judgments
—survey the whole subject as politicians—discard sectional
interests, and study only the common weal—act with these
views—and thus relieve the oppressions of the South.
"I have ever, Mr. President, supported the interest of
manufactures, as far as it could be done incidentally. I
supported the late Mr. Lowndes's bill of 1816. I was a member
of his committee, and that bill protected the manufactures
sufficiently, except bar iron. Mr. Lowndes had reported fifteen
dollars per ton. The House reduced it to nine dollars per ton.
That act enabled the manufacturers to exclude importations of
certain articles. The hatters carry on their business by their sons
and apprentices, and few, if any, hats are now imported. Large
quantities are exported, and preferred. All articles of leather,
from tanned side to the finest harness or saddle, have been
excluded from importation; and why? Because the business is
conducted by their own hard hands, their own labor, and they
are now heavily taxed by the tariff of 1828, to enable the rich to
enter into the manufactures of the country. Yes, sir, I say the
rich, who entered into the business after the act of 1824, which
proved to be a mushroom affair, and many of them suffered
severely. The act of 1816, I repeat, gave all the protection that
was necessary or proper, under which the industrious and frugal
completely succeeded. But, sir, the capitalist who had invested
his capital in manufactures, was not to be satisfied with ordinary
profit; and therefore the act of 1828."

Mr. Clay, in his opening speech had adverted to the Southern

discontent at the working of the protective tariff, in a way that
showed he felt it to be serious, and entitled to enter into the
consideration of statesmen; but considered this system an overruling
necessity of such want and value to other parts of the Union, that
the danger to its existence laid in the abandonment, and not in the
continuance of the "American system." On this point he expressed
himself thus:

"And now, Mr. President, I have to make a few observations

on a delicate subject, which I approach with all the respect that
is due to its serious and grave nature. They have not, indeed,
been rendered necessary by the speech of the gentleman from
South Carolina, whose forbearance to notice the topic was
commendable, as his argument throughout was characterized
by an ability and dignity worthy of him and of the Senate. The
gentleman made one declaration which might possibly be
misinterpreted, and I submit to him whether an explanation of it
be not proper. The declaration, as reported in his printed
speech, is: 'the instinct of self-interest might have taught us an
easier way of relieving ourselves from this oppression. It wanted
but the will to have supplied ourselves with every article
embraced in the protective system, free of duty, without any
other participation, on our part than a simple consent to receive
them.' [Here Mr. Hayne rose, and remarked that the passages,
which immediately preceded and followed the paragraph cited,
he thought, plainly indicated his meaning, which related to
evasions of the system, by illicit introduction of goods, which
they were not disposed to countenance in South Carolina.] I am
happy to hear this explanation. But, sir, it is impossible to
conceal from our view the fact that there is great excitement in
South Carolina; that the protective system is openly and
violently denounced in popular meetings; and that the
legislature itself has declared its purpose of resorting to
counteracting measures: a suspension of which has only been
submitted to, for the purpose of allowing Congress time to
retrace its steps. With respect to this Union, Mr. President, the
truth cannot be too generally proclaimed, nor too strongly
inculcated, that it is necessary to the whole and to all the parts
—necessary to those parts, indeed, in different degrees, but
vitally necessary to each; and that, threats to disturb or dissolve
it, coming from any of the parts, would be quite as indiscreet
and improper, as would be threats from the residue to exclude
those parts from the pale of its benefits. The great principle,
which lies at the foundation of all free governments, is, that the
majority must govern; from which there is nor can be no appeal
but to the sword. That majority ought to govern wisely,
equitably, moderately, and constitutionally; but, govern it must,
subject only to that terrible appeal. If ever one, or several
States, being a minority, can, by menacing a dissolution of the
Union, succeed in forcing an abandonment of great measures,
deemed essential to the interests and prosperity of the whole,
the Union, from that moment, is practically gone. It may linger
on, in form and name, but its vital spirit has fled for ever!
Entertaining these deliberate opinions, I would entreat the
patriotic people of South Carolina—the land of Marion, Sumpter,
and Pickens; of Rutledge, Laurens, the Pickneys; and Lowndes;
of living and present names, which I would mention if they were
not living or present—to pause, solemnly pause! and
contemplate the frightful precipice which lies directly before
them. To retreat, may be painful and mortifying to their
gallantry and pride; but it is to retreat to the Union, to safety,
and to those brethren, with whom, or, with whose ancestors,
they, or their ancestors, have won, on the fields of glory,
imperishable renown. To advance, is to rush on certain and
inevitable disgrace and destruction.
"The danger to our Union does not lie on the side of
persistance in the American system, but on that of its
abandonment. If, as I have supposed and believe, the
inhabitants of all north and east of James River, and all west of
the mountains, including Louisiana are deeply interested in the
preservation of that system, would they be reconciled to its
overthrow? Can it be expected that two thirds, if not three
fourths, of the people of the United States would consent to the
destruction of a policy believed to be indispensably necessary to
their prosperity? When too, this sacrifice is made at the instance
of a single interest, which they verily believe will not be
 promoted by it? In estimating the degree of peril which may be
incident to two opposite courses of human policy, the statesman
would be short-sighted who should content himself with viewing
only the evils, real or imaginary, which belong to that course
which is in practical operation. He should lift himself up to the
contemplation of those greater and more certain dangers which
might inevitably attend the adoption of the alternative course.
What would be the condition of this Union, if Pennsylvania and
New-York, those mammoth members of our confederacy, were
firmly persuaded that their industry was paralyzed, and their
prosperity blighted, by the enforcement of the British colonial
system, under the delusive name of free trade? They are now
tranquil, and happy, and contented, conscious of their welfare
and feeling a salutary and rapid circulation of the products of
home manufactures and home industry throughout all their
great arteries. But let that be checked, let them feel that a
foreign system is to predominate, and the sources of their
subsistence and comfort dried up; let New England and the
West, and the Middle States, all feel that they too are the
victims of a mistaken policy, and let these vast portions of our
country despair of any favorable change, and then, indeed,
might we tremble for the continuance and safety of this Union!"

Here was an appalling picture presented: dissolution of the Union,

on either hand, and one or the other of the alternatives obliged to
be taken. If persisted in, the opponents to the protective system, in
the South, were to make the dissolution; if abandoned, its friends, in
the North, were to do it. Two citizens, whose word was law to two
great parties, denounced the same event, from opposite causes, and
one of which causes was obliged to occur. The crisis required a hero-
patriot at the head of the government, and Providence had reserved
one for the occasion. There had been a design, in some, to bring
Jackson forward for the Presidency, in 1816, and again, in 1820,
when he held back. He was brought forward, in 1824, and defeated.
These three successive postponements brought him to the right
years, for which Providence seemed to have destined him, and
which he would have missed, if elected at either of the three
preceding elections. It was a reservation above human wisdom or
foresight; and gave to the American people (at the moment they
wanted him) the man of head, and heart, and nerve, to do what the
crisis required: who possessed the confidence of the people, and
who knew no course, in any danger, but that of duty and patriotism;
and had no feeling, in any extremity but that God and the people
would sustain him. Such a man was wanted, in 1832, and was found
—found before, but reserved for use now.
The representatives from the South, generally but especially those
from South Carolina, while depicting the distress of their section of
the Union, and the reversed aspect which had come upon their
affairs, less prosperous now than before the formation of the Union,
attributed the whole cause of this change to the action of the federal
government, in the levy and distribution of the public revenue; to
the protective system, which was now assuming permanency, and
increasing its exactions; and to a course of expenditure which
carried to the North what was levied on the South. The democratic
party generally concurred in the belief that this system was working
injuriously upon the South, and that this injury ought to be relieved;
that it was a cause of dissatisfaction with the Union, which a regard
for the Union required to be redressed; but all did not concur in the
cause of Southern eclipse in the race of prosperity which their
representatives assigned; and, among them, Mr. Dallas, who thus
spoke:

"The impressive and gloomy description of the senator from

South Carolina [Mr. Hayne], as to the actual state and wretched
prospects of his immediate fellow-citizens, awakens the liveliest
sympathy, and should command our attention. It is their right; it
is our duty. I cannot feel indifferent to the sufferings of any
portion of the American people; and esteem it inconsistent with
the scope and purpose of the federal constitution, that any
majority, no matter how large, should connive at, or protract the
oppression or misery of any minority, no matter how small. I
disclaim and detest the idea of making one part subservient to
another; of feasting upon the extorted substance of my
countrymen; of enriching my own region, by draining the
fertility and resources of a neighbor; of becoming wealthy with
spoils which leave their legitimate owners impoverished and
desolate. But, sir, I want proof of a fact, whose existence, at
least as described, it is difficult even to conceive; and, above all,
I want the true causes of that fact to be ascertained; to be
brought within the reach of legislative remedy, and to have that
remedy of a nature which may be applied without producing
more mischiefs than those it proposes to cure. The proneness to
exaggerate social evils is greatest with the most patriotic.
Temporary embarrassment is sensitively apprehended to be
permanent. Every day's experience teaches how apt we are to
magnify partial into universal distress, and with what difficulty
an excited imagination rescues itself from despondency. It will
not do, sir, to act upon the glowing or pathetic delineations of a
gifted orator; it will not do to become enlisted, by ardent
exhortations, in a crusade against established systems of policy;
it will not do to demolish the walls of our citadel to the sounds
of plaintiff eloquence, or fire the temple at the call of
impassioned enthusiasm.
"What, sir, is the cause of Southern distress? Has any
gentleman yet ventured to designate it? Can any one do more
than suppose, or argumentatively assume it? I am neither
willing nor competent to flatter. To praise the honorable senator
from South Carolina, would be

'To add perfume to the violet—

Wasteful and ridiculous excess.'

But, if he has failed to discover the source of the evils he

deplores, who can unfold it? Amid the warm and
indiscriminating denunciations with which he has assailed the
policy of protecting domestic manufactures and native produce,
he frankly avows that he would not 'deny that there are other
causes, besides the tariff, which have contributed to produce
the evils which he has depicted.' What are those 'other causes?'
In what proportion have they acted? How much of this dark
shadowing is ascribable to each singly, and to all in
combination? Would the tariff be at all felt or denounced, if
these other causes were not in operation? Would not, in fact, its
influence, its discriminations, its inequalities, its oppressions, but
for these 'other causes,' be shaken, by the elasticity and energy,
and exhaustless spirit of the South, as 'dew-drops from the
lion's mane?' These inquiries, sir, must be satisfactorily
answered before we can be justly required to legislate away an
entire system. If it be the root of all evil, let it be exposed and
demolished. If its poisonous exhalations be but partial, let us
preserve such portions as are innoxious. If, as the luminary of
day, it be pure and salutary in itself, let us not wish it
extinguished, because of the shadows, clouds, and darkness
which obscure its brightness or impede its vivifying power.
"That other causes still, Mr. President, for Southern distress,
do exist, cannot be doubted. They combine with the one I have
indicated, and are equally unconnected with the manufacturing
policy. One of these it is peculiarly painful to advert to; and
when I mention it, I beg honorable senators not to suppose that
I do it in the spirit of taunt, of reproach, or of idle declamation.
Regarding it as a misfortune merely, not as a fault; as a disease
inherited, not incurred; perhaps to be alleviated, but not
eradicated, I should feel self-condemned were I to treat it other
than as an existing fact, whose merit or demerit, apart from the
question under debate, is shielded from commentary by the
highest and most just considerations. I refer, sir, to the
character of Southern labor, in itself, and in its influence on
others. Incapable of adaptation to the ever-varying charges of
human society and existence, it retains the communities in
which it is established, in a condition of apparent and
comparative inertness. The lights of science, and the
 improvements of art, which vivify and accelerate elsewhere,
cannot penetrate, or, if they do, penetrate with dilatory
inefficiency, among its operatives. They are merely instinctive
and passive. While the intellectual industry of other parts of this
country springs elastically forward at every fresh impulse, and
manual labor is propelled and redoubled by countless
inventions, machines, and contrivances, instantly understood
and at once exercised, the South remains stationary,
inaccessible to such encouraging and invigorating aids. Nor is it
possible to be wholly blind to the moral effect of this species of
labor upon those freemen among whom it exists. A disrelish for
humble and hardy occupation; a pride adverse to drudgery and
toil; a dread that to partake in the employments allotted to
color, may be accompanied also by its degradation, are natural
and inevitable. The high and lofty qualities which, in other
scenes and for other purposes, characterize and adorn our
Southern brethren, are fatal to the enduring patience, the
corporal exertion, and the painstaking simplicity, by which only a
successful yeomanry can be formed. When, in fact, sir, the
senator from South Carolina asserts that 'slaves are too
improvident, too incapable of that minute, constant, delicate
attention, and that persevering industry which is essential to the
success of manufacturing establishments,' he himself admits the
defect in the condition of Southern labor, by which the progress
of his favorite section must be retarded. He admits an inability
to keep pace with the rest of the world. He admits an inherent
weakness; a weakness neither engendered nor aggravated by
the tariff—which, as societies are now constituted and directed,
must drag in the rear, and be distanced in the common race."

Thus spoke Mr. Dallas, senator from Pennsylvania; and thus

speaking, gave offence to no Southern man; and seemed to be well
justified in what he said, from the historical fact that the loss of
ground, in the race of prosperity, had commenced in the South
before the protective system began—before that epoch year, 1816,
when it was first installed as a system, and so installed by the power
of the South Carolina vote and talent. But the levy and expenditure
of the federal government was, doubtless, the main cause of this
Southern decadence—so unnatural in the midst of her rich staples—
and which had commenced before 1816.
It so happened, that while the advocates of the American system
were calling so earnestly for government protection, to enable them
to sustain themselves at home, that the custom-house books were
showing that a great many species of our manufactures, and
especially the cotton, were going abroad to far distant countries; and
sustaining themselves on remote theatres against all competition,
and beyond the range of any help from our laws. Mr. Clay, himself,
spoke of this exportation, to show the excellence of our fabrics, and
that they were worth protection; I used the same fact to show that
they were independent of protection; and said:

"And here I would ask, how many and which are the articles
that require the present high rate of protection? Certainly not
the cotton manufacture; for, the senator from Kentucky [Mr.
Clay], who appears on this floor as the leading champion of
domestic manufactures, and whose admissions of fact must be
conclusive against his arguments of theory! this senator tells
you, and dwells upon the disclosure with triumphant exultation,
that American cottons are now exported to Asia, and sold at a
profit in the cotton markets of Canton and Calcutta! Surely, sir,
our tariff laws of 1824 and 1828 are not in force in Bengal and
China. And I appeal to all mankind for the truth of the
inference, that, if our cottons can go to these countries, and be
sold at a profit without any protection at all, they can stay at
home, and be sold to our own citizens, without loss, under a
less protection than fifty and two hundred and fifty per centum!
One fact, Mr. President, is said to be worth a thousand theories;
I will add that it is worth a hundred thousand speeches; and
this fact that the American cottons now traverse the one-half of
the circumference of this globe—cross the equinoctial line;
descend to the antipodes; seek foreign markets on the double
theatre of British and Asiatic competition, and come off
victorious from the contest—is a full and overwhelming answer
to all the speeches that have been made, or ever can be made,
in favor of high protecting duties on these cottons at home. The
only effect of such duties is to cut off importations—to create
monopoly at home—to enable our manufacturers to sell their
goods higher to their own christian fellow-citizens than to the
pagan worshippers of Fo and of Brahma! to enable the
inhabitants of the Ganges and the Burrampooter to wear
American cottons upon cheaper terms than the inhabitants of
the Ohio and Mississippi. And every Western citizen knows the
fact, that when these shipments of American cottons were
making to the extremities of Asia, the price of these same
cottons was actually raised twenty and twenty-five per cent., in
all the towns of the West; with this further difference to our
prejudice, that we can only pay for them in money, while the
inhabitants of Asia make payment in the products of their own
country.
"This is what the gentleman's admission proved; but I do not
come here to argue upon admissions, whether candid or
unguarded, of the adversary speakers. I bring my own facts and
proofs; and, really, sir, I have a mind to complain that the
gentleman's admission about cottons has crippled the force of
my argument; that it has weakened its effect by letting out half
at a time, and destroyed its novelty, by an anticipated
revelation. The truth is, I have this fact (that we exported
domestic cottons) treasured up in my magazine of material! and
intended to produce it, at the proper time, to show that we
exported this article, not to Canton and Calcutta alone, but to all
quarters of the globe; not a few cargoes only, by way of
experiment, but in great quantities, as a regular trade, to the
amount of a million and a quarter of dollars, annually; and that,
of this amount, no less than forty thousand dollars' worth, in the
year 1880, had done what the combined fleets and armies of
the world could not do; it had scaled the rock of Gibraltar,
penetrated to the heart of the British garrison, taken possession
of his Britannic Majesty's soldiers, bound their arms, legs, and
bodies, and strutted in triumph over the ramparts and batteries
of that unattackable fortress. And now, sir, I will use no more of
the gentleman's admissions; I will draw upon my own
resources; and will show nearly the whole list of our domestic
manufacture to be in the same flourishing condition with
cottons, actually going abroad to seek competition, without
protection, in every foreign clime, and contending victoriously
with foreign manufactures wherever they can encounter them. I
read from the custom-house returns, of 1830—the last that has
been printed. Listen to it:
"This is the list of domestic manufactures exported to foreign
countries. It comprehends the whole, or nearly the whole, of
that long catalogue of items which the senator from Kentucky
[Mr. Clay] read to us, on the second day of his discourse; and
shows the whole to be going abroad, without a shadow of
protection, to seek competition, in foreign markets, with the
foreign goods of all the world. The list of articles I have read,
contains near fifty varieties of manufactures (and I have omitted
many minor articles) amounting, in value, to near six millions of
dollars! And now behold the diversity of human reasoning! The
senator from Kentucky exhibits a list of articles manufactured in
the United States, and argues that the slightest diminution in
the enormous protection they now enjoy, will overwhelm the
whole in ruin, and cover the country with distress; I read the
same identical list, to show that all these articles go abroad and
contend victoriously with their foreign rivals in all foreign
markets."
 Mr. Clay had attributed to the tariffs of 1824 and 1828 the reviving
and returning prosperity of the country, while in fact it was the mere
effect of recovery from prostration, and in spite of these tariffs,
instead of by their help. Business had been brought to a stand
during the disastrous period which ensued the establishment of the
Bank of the United States. It was a period of stagnation, of
settlement, of paying up, of getting clear of loads of debt; and
starting afresh. It was the strong man, freed from the burthen under
which he had long been prostrate, and getting on his feet again. In
the West I knew that this was the process, and that our revived
prosperity was entirely the result of our own resources, independent
of, and in spite of federal legislation; and so declared it in my
speech. I said:

"The fine effects of the high tariff upon the prosperity of the
West have been celebrated on this floor: with how much reason,
let facts respond, and the people judge! I do not think we are
indebted to the high tariff for our fertile lands and our navigable
rivers; and I am certain we are indebted to these blessings for
the prosperity we enjoy. In all that comes from the soil, the
people of the West are rich. They have an abundant supply of
food for man and beast, and a large surplus to send abroad.
They have the comfortable living which industry creates for
itself in a rich soil; but, beyond this, they are poor. They have
none of the splendid works which imply the presence of the
moneyed power! No Appian or Flaminian ways; no roads paved
or McAdamized; no canals, except what are made upon
borrowed means; no aqueducts; no bridges of stone across our
innumerable streams; no edifices dedicated to eternity; no
schools for the fine arts: not a public library for which an
ordinary scholar would not apologize. And why none of those
things? Have the people of the West no taste for public
improvements, for the useful and the fine arts, and for
literature? Certainly they have a very strong taste for them; but
they have no money! not enough for private and current uses,
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