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Intelligence Analysis
Fundamentals
http://taylorandfrancis.com
Intelligence Analysis
Fundamentals

Patrick McGlynn
Godfrey Garner
The views expressed in this text are the authors’ and do not imply endorsement by the Office of the Director
of National Intelligence (ODNI) or any other U.S. Government agency.

CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
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 CONTENTS
Preface xiii
About the Authors xvii

1 Defining Intelligence Analysis 1

Introduction 1
What Is Intelligence? 2
What Is Intelligence Analysis? 2
Origins 3
Differences 3
Commonalities 4
Starting with Analysis Requirements 4
Descriptive Requirements 5
Explanatory Requirements 5
Anticipatory Requirements 6
Crime Analysis 7
Military Intelligence Analysis 8
Homeland Security Problem Set 9
The Hybrid Threat 10
Practical Exercise 11
Chapter Summary 11

2 The Intelligence Cycle 13

Introduction 13
Analysis Is a Single Part of the Cycle 14
The Intelligence Cycle 14
Cycle Phases 15
Practical Exercise 19
Chapter Summary 22

v
Contents

3 Thinking about Thinking 25

Introduction 25
Problem Solving 25
Critical Thinking 26
Reflective Thinking 27
Dewey Sequence Problem Solving 27
Practical Exercise 29
Higher-Order Thinking 29
Analysis 29
Evaluation 30
Creating 31
Cognitive Factors that Affect Thinking Quality 31
Complexity 31
Uncertainty 32
Bias 33
Subject Matter Expertise 33
Chapter Summary 34

4 Perception and Deception 37

Introduction 37
Perception 38
Practical Exercise 38
Misperception 38
Deception 40
Personal (Self) Deception 41
How to Deceive 44
Barton Whaley’s 10-Step Deception Process 44
How to Detect Deception 47
Finding Patterns of Congruity and Incongruity (Scientific Method) 47
The Plus or Minus Rule 51
The Congruity/Incongruity Rule and the Analyst’s Advantage 52
Chapter Summary 53

5 Knowing Your Audience 55

Introduction 55
Identify and Write for Your Audience 56

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 Contents

Choosing Your Supporting Evidence 57

Statistics 58
Factual Examples 59
Expert Opinions 60
Organizing Information for the User 60
Findings Intelligence Assessments 60
Foundational Evidence 65
Justification (Logical Reasoning) 66
Chapter Summary 68

6 Analytical Communication 73
Introduction 73
Basic Workings of Analytical Communication 73
Communication Preparation 74
Communication Execution 74
Product Writing Style 75
Clarity 76
Succinctness 76
Precision 77
Briefings 78
Using Product Templates 78
Sample Product Template 79
Practical Exercise 80
Mastering the BLUF Format 80
Title 81
Executive Summary and Introduction 81
Background 82
Analysis 82
Conclusion 83
Writing for Release 83
Product Visuals 84
Text Boxes 85
Analytical Communications Checklist 86
Chapter Summary 87

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Contents

7 Defining the Problem 91

Introduction 91
Multiple Contingency Situations 91
Brainstorming Contingencies 92
Problems with Some Definitions 95
Taxonomy of Problem Types 96
Practical Exercise 99
Chapter Summary 99

8 Generating the Hypothesis 103

Introduction 103
Simple Process to Generate a Hypothesis 104
Situational Logic 105
Applying Theory 108
Historical Comparison 109
Choosing between Strategies 110
Dealing with Multiple Hypotheses 110
Strategies for Choosing among Competing Hypotheses 112
Chapter Summary 114

9 The Collection Process 117

Introduction 117
Collection Management 118
Traditional Methods 118
Modern Methods 118
Collection Planning 121
Selecting Sensors and Sources 122
Limitations on Collections 123
Collection Sources and Disciplines 123
People 125
Physical Objects 125
Emanations 125
Documents/Records 125
Special Sources 126
Collection Operations 126
Tipping and Cuing 127
Redundancy 127

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 Contents

Mix 127
Integration 127
Small Element Collection Management Operations 128
Developing an Open Source Collection Plan 128
Chapter Summary 131

10 Analytical Tradecraft 135

Introduction 135
Analytical Methods Techniques 136
SATs 139
Benefits of Using SATs 139
SAT Groupings 141
Pattern Recognition Techniques 141
Social Network Analysis 143
Geospatial Analysis 148
Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) 150
Diagnostic Techniques 153
Contrarian Techniques 161
Imaginative Thinking Techniques 166
Choosing a Suitable SAT 173
Chapter Summary 174

11 Cognitive Traps for Intelligence Analysis 185

Introduction 185
Bias Categories 185
Personality of the Observer 186
Confirmation Bias 187
Target Fixation 187
Wrong Analogy 188
Organizational Culture 190
Avoiding Cognitive Traps 191
Recognizing the Patterns 191
Properly Framing Problems 193
Leveraging Other Perspectives 195
Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) 196
Chapter Summary 198

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Contents

12 Probability Estimation 201

Introduction 201
Analytical Applications to Probability 202
Assessment Probability 202
Reliability and Credibility of Sources 204
Simple Inference 205
Theoretical Probability 205
Experimental Probability 207
Conditional Probability 207
Calculating Risk of Terrorist Attack 208
Historical Application 208
A More Contemporary Application 209
Crime Probabilities 211
Probability in Solving Crime 211
Probability and Law Enforcement Policy 212
Probability in Criminal Justice Policy 213
Tools for Calculating Probability 215
Event Trees 216
Probability Trees 217
Calculating Probability Distribution/Density Using Excel 217
Practical Exercise 221
Chapter Summary 222

13 Creating an Analytical Plan 229

Introduction 229
Initial Appraisal 230
Practical Exercise 233
Exercise Scenario 233
Identifying and Prioritizing the Intelligence Gaps 235
Developing the Collection Plan 237
Allocating Resources and Schedule Development 239
Processing and Exploitation 239
Analysis Phase 240
Allocating Resources and Schedule Development Example 240
Production and Dissemination 242
Chapter Summary 243

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 Contents

14 Preparing and Conducting Intelligence Briefings 247

Introduction 247
Briefings in Law Enforcement and Business 251
Responsibilities of Intelligence Analysts 251
Preparation of Briefing Slides 252
Roles and Relationships 257
Practicing Your Briefing 259
Body Positioning 259
Types of Briefs 260
Summary and Review 262

15 Best Practices 263

Introduction 263
ICD 203’s List of Nine Standards 264
Properly Describe Quality and Reliability of Underlying Sources 265
Guidance to Better Describe Quality and Credibility
of Underlying Sources 265
Practical Exercise 266
Properly Caveat and Expresses Uncertainties or Confidence
in Analytic Judgments 266
Guidance to Ensure Explanation and Expression of Uncertainties
or Confidence in Analytic Judgments 267
Properly Distinguish between Underlying Intelligence and Analysts’
Assumptions and Judgments 268
Guidance on How to Properly Distinguish between Underlying
Intelligence and Analytical Assumptions and Judgments 268
Incorporate Alternative Analysis Where Appropriate 268
Guidance on How to Incorporate Alternative Analysis
Where Appropriate 269
Demonstrate Customer Relevance and Addresses Implications 271
Guidance on How to Ensure Customer Relevance and Addresses
Implications 271
Use Logical Argumentation 272
Guidance on Using Logical Argumentation 272
Exhibit Consistency of Analysis over Time, or Highlights Changes
and Explains Rationale 274
Guidance on Consistency of or Explaining Changes to Analytical
Judgments 275

xi
Contents

Make Accurate Judgments and Assessments 276

Guidance on Making Accurate Judgments and Assessments 276
Incorporate Effective Visual Information Where Appropriate 277
Guidance on Incorporating Effective Visual Information
Where Appropriate 277
Chapter Summary 278

16 Operations Security (OPSEC) 283

Introduction 283
The Foundation of OPSEC 284
OPSEC Process 284
Intelligence vs. Counterintelligence 286
Enforcing OPSEC 288
Open Source Information (OSINT) and Its Effect on OPSEC 289
In a Perfect World 291
Nuts and Bolts 293
Document Markings and Classifications 297
Practical Exercise 299
Chapter Summary 300

Index 303

xii
 PREFACE
In most cases, this book exercises the approach of using military intel-
ligence examples as a starting point to explain concepts. There is a fun-
damental reason for this approach. Historically, military organizations
have practiced the profession of “intelligence.” Remembering a Sunday
school lesson from my youth as an illustration, I recollect being told that
as Moses approached the Promised Land with the army of Israel at his
side, “the Lord directed Moses to spy on the land of Canaan.”
And the Lord spoke to Moses, saying, “Send men to spy out the land
of Canaan, which I am giving to the children of Israel; from each tribe
of their fathers you shall send a man, every one a leader among them.”
Numbers 13, New King James Version (NKJV)
Sending “spies” or scouts into an unknown land to collect intelligence
on terrain, roads, watering points, and potential enemies could be called
wise or just common sense. Whichever label you choose, it is difficult to
argue the logic. With “criminal intelligence” and “business intelligence”
being constructs of the 20th century for the most part (perhaps a few hun-
dred years old, at best), the argument that the roots of military intelligence
reach back thousands of years is self-evident. The fact that military intel-
ligence has been around that long makes the body of knowledge collected
over those thousands of years far larger, richer, and more extensive. In
that context, this book takes every opportunity to compare, contrast, and
cite similar examples where military intelligence methods and concepts
can be applied to business and criminal intelligence problem sets.
Historically, the U.S. intelligence community has faced criticism for
failing to adequately predict or warn of a given attack taken on the United
States, thereby allowing the enemy to gain the element of surprise. World
War II has multiple examples of these surprise attacks. Most notably they
include Pearl Harbor, Kasserine Pass (North Africa), and the Battle of the
Bulge. During the Korean campaigns, the U.S. military was surprised at
the outbreak of the war and again when China entered on the side of the
North Koreans. Vietnam gave us the Tet Offensive, followed by the col-
lapse of the Iron Curtain and Soviet Union. Such incidents, in addition

xiii
Preface

to the events of 9/11, have produced an outcry that have led to numerous
studies to determine “what went wrong.” Government hearings, think-
tank studies, and independent researchers have offered their proposals
and advice on how to fix the intelligence community (IC).
More often than not, the prescribed answers have been to throw more
money and resources at the problem. However, subject matter experts
believe the major reason for the failure of analysis more likely lies with
faulty analytical thinking. This book seeks to provides analytical instruc-
tion, which addresses this faulty analytical thinking, while creating a pro-
cess where the analyst can develop, practice, and internalize a systematic
analytical process using real-world and hypothetical (though real-world–
related) problem sets.
Most topics covered within the book are germane to all fields (i.e.,
military, national, political, criminal, and business) of intelligence analy-
sis. However, certain chapters and sections, as well as most of the instruc-
tional examples, scenarios, exercises, and learning activities, provide
focus on (or can be applied to) the Homeland Security mission and its
associated problem sets. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
mission statement is as follows:
The vision of homeland security is to ensure a homeland that is safe,
secure, and resilient against terrorism and other hazards.
Three key concepts form the foundation of our national homeland
security strategy designed to achieve this vision:
• Security;
• Resilience; and
• Customs and Exchange.1
The training presentation methods and instructional approaches
embodied within the lesson material in this book are all products of
much thought, research, and discussion. Many tested and proven govern-
ment and commercial analytical training methodologies are utilized to
explain and demonstrate concepts and assist the student to internalize the
instructional materials.
Where possible, lesson materials contain actual unclassified Homeland
Security products, document formats, and situational scenarios. To simu-
late classified scenarios and examples for instructional purposes, hypo-
thetical instruments use unclassified Department of Homeland Security

1 United States Department of Homeland Security, 2015, http://www.dhs.gov/our-mission.

xiv
 Preface

document formats or other unclassified federal/foreign government doc-

ument formats in order to provide a higher level of authenticity to the
learner.
Books using DHS-based learning activities/exercises are rare, but
weaving homeland security-focused content with various instructional
approaches makes this book unique among its peers.

xv
http://taylorandfrancis.com
 ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Patrick McGlynn is a retired army intelligence officer. He has authored
multiple authoritative strategic-level intelligence reports addressing ter-
rorism, irregular warfare, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and
information operations (IO). His military career has included assign-
ments with the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA); and military and
civilian contractor tours in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other Middle East loca-
tions, where he served in various senior theater-level staff intelligence
positions. Since retiring from the military in 2007, McGlynn has authored
technical papers on targeting, articles for various intelligence professional
periodicals, and has developed analytical training courses for Counter-
Improvised Explosive Devices (C-IED); Counter Insurgency Operation
(COIN); and Analytical Tradecraft, Terrorism, Information Operations,
Collection Management, and Network Analysis. McGlynn has a mas-
ter’s in adult education and industrial technology from Georgia Southern
University.

Godfrey Garner is a professor at Mississippi College and adjunct pro-

fessor at Tulane University, teaching Counterterrorism and Intelligence
Analysis for the Homeland Security degree programs. Dr. Garner is direc-
tor for Mississippi College Center for Counterterror Studies and is a locally
recognized authority on terrorism, counterterrorism, and conflicts in the
Middle East. His work has appeared in Homeland Security Today, Journal
of American Diplomacy, and Foreign Policy Journal. He is the author of the
novels The Balance of Exodus, Danny Kane and the Hunt for Mullah Omar,
and Clothed in White Raiment. He served in Vietnam and Afghanistan and
completed two military and eight civilian government-, intelligence-, and
counterintelligence-related tours in Afghanistan.

xvii
http://taylorandfrancis.com
 1
Defining Intelligence Analysis

INTRODUCTION
This course of instruction begins with defining intelligence analysis.
Chapter 1 guides the student through multiple definitions, using several
widely accepted examples as foundational information. First, by pointing
out the various divergent perspectives on intelligence analysis, then by
segregating the commonalities. To aid in instruction and minimize confu-
sion, the book provides a broad definition for intelligence analysis for use
through the remainder of the course. The intelligence analysis definition
discussion ends with the introduction of the intelligence analysis process.
The chapter then introduces, along with its origins, the purpose of intelli-
gence analysis. This book continues, discussing other intelligence analysis
processes and how they are used in business, product marketing, counter
terrorism, crime prevention, military applications, and so on. This book
does not, however, advocate for a single process, only that there should be
a formal process. The United States military process for intelligence anal-
ysis will be the initial intelligence analysis process explained during this
course of instruction. Later chapters cover the advantages, process struc-
ture, and applications of other (non-military–related) processes in more
detail. After briefly discussing the analysis process framework, the chap-
ter’s instructional materials identify and describe the analysis process
starting point: Requirements. The instruction describes the three analysis
requirement categories along with their subtypes, providing real-world
examples of each supporting category subtype.

1
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS

This chapter discusses some of the applications and more specific

examples of crime analysis and military intelligence analysis integra-
tion in tackling the Homeland Security intelligence analysis problem set,
including the hybrid threat.

WHAT IS INTELLIGENCE?
What is intelligence? A basic definition of intelligence: The ability to obtain
and apply knowledge and skills. Sounds simple, so why is it perceived to
be so difficult and why are there so many varying definitions? Taking it a
step further, it becomes more apparent. Each individual (or organization)
has differing definitions of the terms abilities and apply. Later in the text
we will investigate deeper into what is meant by “abilities to obtain” and
how to better “apply” them.

WHAT IS INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS?

Presently, there exists no broadly agreed upon definition for what intel-
ligence analysis is or what it means to accomplish. The lack of a consen-
sus definition for intelligence analysis stems from the fact that there is no
agreement on the meaning of the term intelligence.
Intelligence subject matter experts (SMEs) tend to view the term
through the microscope of their own specialties. The Federal Bureau of
Investigation’s (FBI) perspective is oriented more toward the wishes of
policymakers, whereas the military’s definition aligns more with the
desires of the commander. According to the Rand Corporation, a non-
profit research organization:

Intelligence analysis is the process by which the information collected

about an enemy is used to answer tactical questions about current opera-
tions or to predict future behavior.1

Adding to our discussion of intelligence analysis, let us look now at

origins and how intelligence analysis is segregated based upon differing
aspects and characteristics.

1 Rand Corporation, Intelligence Analysis, 2015, http://www.rand.org/topics/intelligence​

-analysis.html.

2
 Defining Intelligence Analysis

Origins
Intelligence (the ability to obtain and apply knowledge and skills) has
been around in its most basic form since prehistoric times. Humans have
been collecting and applying knowledge and skills since they began to
walk upright. The application of intelligence for military purposes soon
followed. The following is an early historical example of military intel-
ligence from ancient Egyptian times, specifically during the reign of
Rameses II at the Battle of Kadesh (roughly 1274 BC).
Rameses II had collected information from two captured enemy spies
on the size and disposition of Hittite enemy forces. Ramesses, having been
misled by the spies, thought the Hittite forces were many days’ march
away, and decided to make camp near Kadesh with the limited military
force accompanying him. In reality, the Hittite forces and their allies were
well within striking distance. When the Hittites attacked, Rameses was
surprised and outnumbered. Only the opportune arrival of the remain-
der of the Egyptian chariot forces and infantry on the battlefield turned
the tide of battle and saved Rameses from what would have been certain
defeat.
One could argue the Hittites had better intelligence than the
Egyptians. Perhaps this perception is partially correct. However, if
that were the actual case, the Hittites should have known about the
Egyptian reinforcements closing in on their position and picked a bet-
ter opportunity to attack. However, this example clearly does show
how critical intelligence properly applied can tip the scales in one’s
favor.

Differences
To further compound the subject, intelligence analysis is often further
classified or divided into:
• Terms of information or data sources (e.g., human, imagery,
signals, open source)
• Who the intelligence product end users/consumers are
(e.g., business intelligence, military intelligence, political
intelligence)
• Number of sources used in production (e.g., single source, all
source)
• Types (e.g., strategic, tactical, scientific/technical)
• Product usability aspects (e.g., actionable vs. nonactionable)

3
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS

Commonalities
Even though the definition is unclear, the mental processes for produc-
ing intelligence products are essentially identical. The major identifiable
distinctions among all of these intelligence production processes are who
performs the analysis and who the product end users are.
Most intelligence community (IC) organizations’ analysis process
descriptions contain two parts: (1) an analysis phase (separating or break-
ing up any whole into its parts for examination), and (2) a synthesis phase
(putting together of parts or elements to form a whole). Throughout the
IC, aspects other than analysis and synthesis may (or may not) be present
in the definition, but the essential elements of analysis and synthesis are
always resident.
For purposes of simplicity, this book uses the term intelligence analysis
as a process including all the activities from exploring the given question
or problem through providing the final intelligence products (in whatever
form they may take; e.g., assessments, imagery, signals reporting).
Setting aside the definition of intelligence analysis for the moment,
in this chapter we will limit the discussion to analytical process starting
points, which are no more than questions needing answers or unsolved
problems. Whether working for the military, a law enforcement organiza-
tion, news organization, commercial business, or as a Homeland Security
analyst, at the most fundamental level, this is the work of the intelligence
analyst.

STARTING WITH ANALYSIS REQUIREMENTS

Intelligence analysis must result in an outcome, that is, at the very least,
both descriptive and explanatory of any given set of circumstances and, at
best, provide forecasts of future events.2
Regardless of the field of intelligence analysis, at the beginning of
the process there is always at least one unanswered question or unsolved
problem. Those questions (also known as requirements) are the starting
point for the analysis process. Intelligence analysis requirements gener-
ally fall into three categories: descriptive, explanatory, and anticipatory.
See Figure 1.1.

2 Don McDowell, Intelligence Study Center, Strategic Intelligence Analysis; Guidelines on

Methodology & Applications, Chapter 2, Section 2.21, 1997.

4
 Defining Intelligence Analysis

Descriptive Explanatory Anticipatory

• Factual • Interpretative • Predictive
• Relational • Casual • Speculative
• Evidential

Figure 1.1 Analysis requirement categories.

Descriptive Requirements
Starting with descriptive requirements, what do we mean when we say
descriptive? Descriptive intelligence requirements are factual or relational
in nature. Factual requirements are immutable and clear cut. In the jour-
nalism trade, the lead paragraph should contain certain “factual” items.
Journalists call those factual items the “five Ws.” Factual analysis require-
ments utilize four, of five, Ws. The five Ws are:
1. Who? (e.g., green force, red force, friendly, enemy)
2. What? (e.g., five soldiers, two tanks, three submarines)
3. Where? (e.g., crossing the border, leaving port)
4. When? (e.g., 06:30, Tuesday, 15 July)
5. Why? (Why will not be used because it is considered to be more
explanatory than factual)
Relational requirements describe associations, comparisons, connec-
tions, or involvement; for discussion purposes, an example of the poten-
tial relationship between red and green force tanks is as follows.

Example
While analyzing potential adversaries, a comparison of green and
red force tanks has determined they are fundamentally identical. The
reason for similarity stems from the fact that both countries have a
common heavy weapons supplier.

Explanatory Requirements
The next category of analysis requirements is explanatory. Explanatory
requirements may be interpretative, casual, or evidential. The interpretive
perspective looks to find meaning in the data (e.g., why are drug smug-
glers following a new route?). The casual viewpoint requires looking for

5
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS

the cause(s) (e.g., what is forcing drug smugglers to abandon their estab-
lished smuggling routes and take another?) Evidential-oriented require-
ments seek sensor data, imagery, or other reporting that prove or disprove
the hypothesis. The following is an example of such a hypothesis and
associated (in this case disproving evidence) imagery data (IMINT) and
human intelligence (HUMINT) reporting.

Example
Requirement Hypothesis Statement: South American drug traffickers
are using a particular coastal home to continuously process drugs for
later shipment to the United States.

Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance (ISR) Collection Data:

• Commercial (day and night) imagery, collected every day for
the last week, show no lights or human traffic or activity in
or around the target coordinate; a “For Rent” sign is posted
in front of building facing the street-side approach.
• Intermittent IMINT collection for the last month show no
lights or human traffic activity in or around the target coor-
dinates; “For Rent” sign also present in imagery.
• HUMINT collections show that, according to three separate
and unrelated real estate agents, the home is a rental property
and has had no recorded tenants in more than four months.
• Other HUMINT reporting based on second-hand reported
conversations with two local neighbors (names not pro-
vided) corroborates previous real estate agent reporting.

Anticipatory Requirements
The final category of requirements is anticipatory. Two subcategories, pre-
dictive and speculative, further subdivide anticipatory analysis require-
ments to provide forecasts and gauge the probability of anticipated
events. Predictive types of analysis requirements seek the likelihood of a
given scenario or chain of events, whereas speculative requirements seek
to know what will happen in some given timespan into the future based
upon various assumptions. Shown below are examples of predictive and
speculative intelligence analysis requirements.

Example of a Predictive Analysis Requirement

Are the chances of the Sinaloa Drug Cartel merging with another
drug trafficking cartel(s) in the next five years greater than 50 percent?

6
 Defining Intelligence Analysis

Example of a Speculative Analysis Requirement

If host nations do not step up drug interdiction efforts (above pres-
ent and historical levels), what will the Sinaloa Drug Cartel look like
in five years? Provide analysis results in terms of staffing, territorial
control, smuggling operations, drug market share, and government
influence.

CRIME ANALYSIS
Crime analysis is a law enforcement function that involves systematic
analysis for identifying and analyzing patterns and trends in crime and
disorder. Information analysis on patterns can help law enforcement
agencies deploy resources in a more effective manner and assist detec-
tives in identifying and apprehending suspects. Crime analysis also plays
a role in devising solutions to crime problems and formulating crime pre-
vention strategies. Quantitative social science data analysis methods are
part of the crime analysis process, though qualitative methods such as
examining police report narratives also play a role.3
Crime analysis has advantages and shortcomings when applied to
homeland security issues/threats. One advantage of criminal analysis
groups is that they are generally very familiar with criminal enterprises
and have high levels of institutional and street-level knowledge of many
known criminal organizations. Additionally, they can usually leverage
the profiles of known organizations to identify and exploit the unknown
criminal organizations.
Crime analysis is generally more reactive in nature, waiting for crimes
to be committed rather that proactively looking for criminal vulnerabili-
ties and proactively prosecuting crimes and disrupting criminal orga-
nizations and activities. Criminal analysts must always be aware of the
likelihood of successful prosecution. If their analysis is insufficient to
obtain a criminal conviction, they must continue to search for evidentiary
data to support their analysis. Further, crime analysis is often artificially
constrained by territorial borders and by limited and sometimes very
restricted data resources. See the example scenario.

3 International Association of Crime Analysts (IACA), Definition of Crime Analysis, http://

www.iaca.net.

7
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS

Example Scenario
A local law enforcement organization (LEO), located near the U.S.
southern border, arrests a drug smuggler for related crimes within
their jurisdiction. The criminal cooperates with interrogators and
gives a full confession. The smuggler’s confession points to criminal
accomplices and ties that reach far into South America and to mul-
tiple worldwide terror groups. The local LEO is ill-equipped, both
analytically and authoritatively, to follow the smuggler’s trail. The
local LEO’s authority to legally further pursue (often to even use
other intelligence resources) generally halt at the limits of their local
jurisdiction. Should the LEO gain cooperation of other county, state,
and federal law enforcement, the trail most definitely stops at the
international border.

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS

The military intelligence approach to analysis is more aggressive than
crime analysis in that it consists of assessment of an adversary’s capa-
bilities and vulnerabilities or analysis of potential threats and opportuni-
ties. Military analysts generally look for the least defended or most fragile
resource that is necessary for important military capabilities. The mili-
tary analyst then designates these “perceived vulnerabilities” as “critical
vulnerabilities” and proposes them for attack, degradation, destruction,
interdiction, or some combination.
The military intelligence analyst is the reciprocal of American crime
analyst. Where U.S. law enforcement agencies have significant ability to
investigate/analyze criminal activities within our borders, military ana-
lysts have limited legal authority in the United States and its territories (or
U.S. citizens overseas, for that matter). Specifically, Department of Defense
(DoD) Directive 5240.01, DoD Intelligence Activities, severely restricts U.S.
military personnel (except where specified exemptions apply) from col-
lecting information on U.S. persons.4
This restriction potentially hampers investigation and analysis of
criminal- and terrorism-related activities against the United States com-
mitted by U.S. nationals, but detected by the military intelligence elements
outside the United States and its territories.

4 Department of Defense (DoD) Directive 5240.1, DoD Intelligence Activities, 27 August,

2014.

8
 Defining Intelligence Analysis

HOMELAND SECURITY PROBLEM SET

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS; see Figure 1.2) was founded
in the wake of the 9/11 attacks,
established in 2002. DHS com-
bined 22 different federal
departments and agencies into
a unified, integrated cabinet
agency to secure the homeland.
There are the five homeland
security missions:
1. Prevent terrorism and
enhance security
2. Secure and manage our
borders
3. Enforce and administer
our immigration laws Figure 1.2 DHS seal.
4. Safeguard and secure
cyberspace
5. Ensure resilience to disasters5
From the mission statement alone, the DHS threat problem set includes
terrorism (foreign and domestic), cyber threats (foreign and domestic),
and border security; to include smuggling and illegal immigration.
To address this problem set, the DHS uses law enforcement (Customs
and Border Protection, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and
United States Secret Service), a unique military organization (the U.S.
Coast Guard), and an intelligence organization (the Office of Intelligence
and Analysis). Other organizations under the DHS contribute also address
the problem set. However, for instructional purposes, this text limits the
list to these four elements.
Note: While the U.S. Coast Guard does have military capabilities and
comes under the command of the U.S. Navy in times of war, the Coast
Guard has the authority under Title 14 USC 89 to make inquires, examina-
tions, inspections, searches, seizures, and arrests upon the high seas and

5 U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Mission Statement and History, 2015, http://www​
.dhs.gov.

9
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS

waters over which the United States has jurisdiction, in order to enforce
federal laws.6

THE HYBRID THREAT

When criminals, terrorists, and other bad actors synergize their person-
nel, efforts, and resources to do wrong, the threat to civilization becomes
a “hybrid” of the many parts, and more likely than not, more efficient and
dangerous.
Because the homeland security threat/problem set is “hybrid” in
nature and scope (e.g., criminal, terrorism), a more conventional, a strictly
military, or strictly law enforcement approach is inadequate to the threat.
Presently there is no consensus (military, academic, or open source)
definition of hybrid threats. For instructional purposes, the book uses the
U.S. Army definition of hybrid threat: “The diverse and dynamic com-
bination of regular forces, irregular forces, and/or criminal elements all
unified to achieve mutually benefitting effects.”7
Based upon the U.S. Army definition of hybrid threat and comparing
the Homeland Security Mission Statement, one can easily see that hybrid
as well as strictly criminal or terrorism-based threats should be consid-
ered by DHS threat analysis groups. By combining criminal and military
intelligence analysis perspectives, the homeland security analyst can
leverage to the fullest extent the advantages while mitigating the short-
falls of either.
Homeland security analysts have extensive access to criminal and
crime organization records via shared law enforcement databases in addi-
tion to multiple terrorist data resources. By using a combined military
intelligence and crime analysis approach against the hybrid threat, DHS
intelligence analysts can focus on capabilities and vulnerabilities in order
to strike the threat organization(s) where it is most vulnerable, as opposed
to where legal advisors assess they can best obtain a criminal conviction.

6 U.S. Code, Law Enforcement, Title 14, Chapter 5, § 89.

7 U.S. Department of the Army, Hybrid Threat, Training Circular 7-100, November 26, 2010,
1-1.

10
Discovering Diverse Content Through
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 THE THIRTY-FOURTH VOLUME
OF THE

American Missionary,
1880.
We have been gratified with the constant tokens of the
increasing appreciation of the Missionary during the past year, and
purpose to spare no effort to make its pages of still greater value
to those interested in the work which it records.
Shall we not have a largely increased subscription list for 1880?
A little effort on the part of our friends, when making their own
remittances, to induce their neighbors to unite in forming Clubs,
will easily double our list, and thus widen the influence of our
Magazine, and aid in the enlargement of our work.
Under the editorial supervision of Rev. Geo. M. Boynton, aided by
the steady contributions of our intelligent missionaries and
teachers in all parts of the field, and with occasional
communications from careful observers and thinkers elsewhere,
the American Missionary furnishes a vivid and reliable picture of the
work going forward among the Indians, the Chinamen on the
Pacific Coast, and the Freedmen as citizens in the South and as
missionaries in Africa.
It will be the vehicle of important views on all matters affecting
the races among which it labors, and will give a monthly
summary of current events relating to their welfare and progress.
Patriots and Christians interested in the education and
Christianizing of these despised races are asked to read it, and
assist in its circulation. Begin with the next number and the new
year. The price is only Fifty Cents per annum.
The Magazine will be sent gratuitously, if preferred, to the
persons indicated on page 62.
Donations and subscriptions should be sent to

H. W. HUBBARD, Treasurer,
56 Reade Street, New York.

TO ADVERTISERS.
Special attention is invited to the advertising department of the
American Missionary. Among its regular readers are thousands of
Ministers of the Gospel, Presidents, Professors and Teachers in
Colleges, Theological Seminaries and Schools; it is, therefore, a
specially valuable medium for advertising Books, Periodicals,
Newspapers, Maps, Charts, Institutions of Learning, Church
Furniture, Bells, Household Goods, &c.
Advertisers are requested to note the moderate price charged for
space in its columns, considering the extent and character of its
circulation.
Advertisements must be received by the TENTH of the month, in
order to secure insertion in the following number. All
communications in relation to advertising should be addressed to

THE AMERICAN MISSIONARY ADVERTISING

DEPARTMENT,
56 Reade Street, New York.

Our friends who are interested in the Advertising

Department of the “American Missionary” can aid us in
this respect by mentioning, when ordering goods, that
they saw them advertised in our Magazine.
DAVID H. GILDERSLEEVE, Printer, 101 Chambers Street, New York.
 Transcriber’s Notes:
Ditto marks in tables were replaced by the text they represent in
order to facilitate alignment for eBooks.
Page number in the Contents for The Romance of Missions corrected
from 53 to 54.
Spelling and punctuation were changed only where the error
appears to be a printing error. The punctuation changes are too
numerous to list; the others are as follows:
Extra “Mr.” removed from page 10 (Mr. F. C. Briggs).
Changed “Aegncy” to “Agency” on page 53 (this Indian Agency).
Changed “S’kokmish” to “S’kokomish” on page 60 in the Washington
Ter. section.
Changed “it” to “at” on page 62 (at least two months).
Changed “libeally” to “liberally” (dealt liberally with its friends)
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE AMERICAN
MISSIONARY — VOLUME 34, NO. 02, FEBRUARY, 1880 ***

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