Probability
1. Introduction to probability
What is probability…
It tells us how likely or unlikely something is to occur, expressed as a
number between 0 and 1.
0 means impossible — the event will never happen.
1 means certain — the event will definitely happen.
Any value between 0 and 1 represents varying degrees of likelihood.
Why should I need to learn and where in real life we can use this
topic..
Make Predictions:
• Weather forecasts use probability to predict rain chances.
Assess Risks:
• Insurance companies calculate risks to decide premiums.
P(E)= Number of favourable outcomes
/Total number of outcomes
RANDOM EXPERIMENT
An experiment is said to be random if it has more than one
possible known outcomes which cannot be predicted in
advance.
Eg:- Throwing of a die is a random experiment.
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a trial
(random experiment) is called its sample space. It is generally
denoted by S and each outcome of the trial is said to be a
sample point. For example - In throwing of a die, the sample
space for the number that shows up on the top face would be:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
EVENT: Every subset of a sample space is called an event. For
example, in throwing a dice, the sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6} and n(S) = 6 E1 = {1, 3, 5} ⊂ S. So E1 is an event and n (E1 ) =3
Types of event..
Equally likely events: Events which have the same chance of
occurring are said to be equally likely events.
Eg:- P(A)= ½, p(B)= 1/2
Mutually exclusive or disjoint events:- Events are said to be
mutually exclusive if it will not occurs together.
eg:- getting odd outcome and getting even outcome in a throw
of a dice.
eg:- getting even and prime are not mutually exclusive not
mutually exclusive.
Exhaustive event:- if set of events is such that their union is the
sample space of the random experiment.
eg:- In a single throw of dice..
A: Getting odd outcome.
B: Getting even outcome.
C: Getting prime outcome.
A+B = Exhaustive
But B+ C not Exhaustive
Independent events: Events are said to be independent, if the
happening(or non-happening) of one event is not affected by
the happening (or non-happening) of other events.
Eg:- throwing two independent dice and getting 1 one first does
not affect getting 4 on other dice.
1. Example classical questions :-
• Find the probability that 2 dice is thrown and sum of number
on 2 dice is equal to 8 and at least on even no present of the
dice.
• Given a set of numbers from 0 to 10 , two no x and y are
selected, find the probability that |x-y|> 5.
• Integer m and n are selected from set of no from 1 to 100 , find
the probability that 7^m + 7^n is divisible by 5.
2. Questions using P & C :-
6 white, 9 black balls are there in a the boxes 4 balls are drawn
2 times without replacement, find the probability that in first
attempt only white ball, selected and in second attempt only
black ball is selected.
2.Principles of probability
If A and B are two events of probability then..
P(AUB)= P(A)+ P(B) -P(A^B).
P(A-B)= P(A)-P(A^B)
P(AUBUC)= P(A)+ P(B) +P(C)- P(A^B)-P(A^C)-P(B^C)+ P(A^B^C)
P(exactly two of the event A, B, C occurs)= P(A^B)+ P(B^C)+
P(A^C) -3P(A^B^C)
P(exactly one of the event A,B,C occurs)= P(A)+ P(B) + P(C)-
2P(A^B)- 2P(B^C)- 2P(A^C)+ 3P(A^B^C)
Example problems…
• P(AUB)= ¾ , P(A^B)= ¼ , P(A-)=2/3, then P(A-^B)= what.
3.Conditional Probability:-
when the probability of an event depends on the occurrence of
another event.
eg:-Suppose you’re drawing cards from a deck, and you’re told
the card drawn is a face card. What's the probability that it's a
king.
eg:-
• A= Rolling 2 dice and getting sum = 8.
B= Rolling 2 dice and getting even no at least one dice.
Find P(A/B), P(B/A).
Multiplication Rule:
Using conditional probability, we can find the probability of
both events occurring:
eg:-
• Three person throws a dice what is the probability of
winning A, B, C ..
4.Total Probability Theorem:-
5.Bays Theorem:-
