Markowitzmodel 140330062945 Phpapp01
Markowitzmodel 140330062945 Phpapp01
1
Markowitz Model
It assists in the selection of the most efficient by analyzing various possible
portfolios of the given securities. By choosing securities that do not 'move'
exactly together, the HM model shows investors how to reduce their risk.
We all agree that holding two stocks is less risky as compared to one stock.
But building the optimal portfolio is very difficult. Markowitz provides an
answer to it with the help of risk and return relationship.
Concept: In developing the model, Markowitz has given up the single stock
portfolio and introduced diversification. The single stock portfolio would be
preferable if the investor is perfectly certain that his expectation of higher
return would turn out to be real. But in this era of uncertainty most of the
investors would like to join Markowitz rather than single stock. It can be
shown with the help of example.
Stock ABC Stock XYZ
Return % 11 or 17 20 or 8
Probability .5 each return .5 each return
Expected return 14 14
Variance 9 36
Standard deviation 3 6
In both the cases the investor stands to gain if the worst occurs, than by
holding either of security individually.
The portfolio risk can be calculated with the help of following formula.
Ϭp= √ X₁²Ϭ₁² + X₂²Ϭ₂² + 2 X₁ X₂( r₁₂ Ϭ₁Ϭ₂)
Where,
Ϭp= std. deviation of portfolio
X₁= proportion of stock X₁
X₂= proportion of stock X₂
Ϭ₁= std. deviation of stock X₁
Ϭ₂= std. deviation of stock X₂
r₁₂= correlation coefficient of both stocks
r₁₂= covariance of X₁₂
Ϭ₁ Ϭ₂
Using the same example given in the return analysis , the portfolio return can
be estimated
Cov of X₁₂= 1/N ∑(R₁ - Ṝ₁) (R₂ - Ṝ₂)
= ½ [(11-14)(20-14) + (17-14)(8-14)]
= -18
Now r = -18/6x3 = -1
In this example the correlation coefficient is -1.0.That means there is perfect
negative correlation between the two and the return moves in opposite
direction. If the correlation is +1 it means securities will move in same
direction and if it is zero the return of both the securities is independent. Thus
the correlation between two securities depend upon the covariance between
the two securitie_s_and the standard deviation_of ea_chse_cu_rity.
Ϭp = √ X₁²Ϭ₁² + X₂Ϭ₂² + 2 X₁ X₂( r₁₂ Ϭ₁Ϭ₂)