Probability ASAP

Probability theory is a branch of mathematics that allows us to reason about events

that are inherently random. For example, you might try to define probability as follows:

Suppose A perform an action that can produce one of n different possible random
OUTCOMES, each of which is equally likely.

For example, A flip a fair coin to produce one of OUTCOMES : heads or tails. Or, A
pick one of the 52 different cards from a deck of playing 2 cards at random.

Then, the probability of each of those outcomes is 1/n. So, 1/2 for heads or tails; 1/52
for each of the possible cards.
 Methods of assigning probability ASAP

The three general methods of assigning probabilities are

(1)the classical method,

(2)the relative frequency of occurrence method, and

(3) subjective probabilities

 Classical Method ASAP

When probabilities are assigned based on laws and rules, the method is referred to as
the classical method of assigning probabilities. This method involves an experiment,
which is a process that produces outcomes, and an event, which is an outcome of an
experiment.
 Classical Method ASAP

When we assign probabilities using the classical method, the probability of an

individual event occurring is determined as the ratio of the number of items in a
population containing the event (ne) to the total number of items in the population (N).

That is, P(E) = ne/ N.

For example, if a company has 200 workers and 70 are female, the probability of
randomly selecting a female from this company is 70 200 > = .35.
 Relative Frequency of Occurrence ASAP

The relative frequency of occurrence method of assigning probabilities is based on

cumulated historical data. With this method, the probability of an event occurring is
equal to the number of times the event has occurred in the past divided by the total
number of opportunities for the event to have occurred.
 Relative Frequency of Occurrence ASAP

For example, a company wants to determine the probability that its inspectors are
going to reject the next batch of raw materials from a supplier. Data gathered from
company record books show that the supplier sent the company 90 batches in the
past, and inspectors rejected 10 of them.

By the method of relative frequency of occurrence, the probability of the inspectors

rejecting the next batch is 10 / 90, or .11. If the next batch is rejected, the relative
frequency of occurrence probability for the subsequent shipment would change to
11/ 91 > = .12.
 Subjective Probability ASAP

The subjective method of assigning probability is based on the feelings or insights of

the person determining the probability. Subjective probability comes from the person’s
intuition or reasoning. Although not a scientific approach to probability, the subjective
method often is based on the accumulation of knowledge, understanding, and
experience stored and processed in the human mind.

Subjective probability also can be a potentially useful way of tapping a person’s

experience, knowledge, and insight and using them to forecast the occurrence of
some event. An experienced airline mechanic can usually assign a meaningful
probability that a particular plane will have a certain type of mechanical difficulty.
Physicians sometimes assign subjective probabilities to the life expectancy of people
who have cancer.
 Calculating Probabilities ASAP

Look again at the example of rolling a six faced die. The possible outcomes in this
experiment are 1,2,3,4,5,6, so the sample space is the set {1,2,3,4,5,6}. The
‘event’ of ‘getting a 6’ is the subset {6}. We represent this in the following diagram.
 Calculating Probabilities ASAP

There are six possibilities in the sample space and only one of these corresponds
to getting a 6, so the probability of getting a 6 when you roll a die is 1/ 6 .

We say that the probability of an event A occurring is

P(A) = Number of elements in A
Total number of elements in the sample space

If a fair coin is tossed, it is clear from our definition of probability above that
P (obtaining a head) = 1/ 2 .
 Calculating Probabilities ASAP

Example

Consider the following problem. Two coins are tossed. Let A be the event ‘two
heads are obtained’, and, B be the event ‘one head and one tail is obtained’. Find
P(A), P(B).
 Calculating Probabilities ASAP

Example

Consider the following problem. Two coins are tossed. Let A be the event ‘two
heads are obtained’, and, B be the event ‘one head and one tail is obtained’. Find
P(A), P(B).

Solution
 Structure of Probability ASAP

The structure of probability provides a common framework within which the topics of
probability can be explored.

Experiment
An experiment is a process that produces outcomes. Examples of business oriented
experiments with outcomes that can be statistically analyzed might include the
following.
■ Interviewing 20 randomly selected consumers and asking them which brand of
appliance they prefer
■ Sampling every 200th bottle of ketchup from an assembly line and weighing the
contents
■ Testing new pharmaceutical drugs on samples of cancer patients and measuring
the patients’ improvement
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Event
Because an event is an outcome of an experiment, the experiment defines the
possibilities of the event. If the experiment is to sample five bottles coming off a
production line, an event could be to get one defective and four good bottles.

In an experiment to roll a die, one event could be to roll an even number and another
event could be to roll a number greater than two.

Events are denoted by uppercase letters; italic capital letters (e.g., A and E1, E2, . . .)
represent the general or abstract case, and roman capital letters (e.g., H and T for
heads and tails) denote specific things and people
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Elementary Events

Events that cannot be decomposed or broken down into other events are called
elementary events. Elementary events are denoted by lowercase letters (e.g., e1,
e2, e3, . . .).

Suppose the experiment is to roll a die. The elementary events for this experiment
are to roll a 1 or roll a 2 or roll a 3, and so on. Rolling an even number is an event,
but it is not an elementary event because the even number can be broken down
further into events 2, 4, and 6.
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Elementary Events
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Sample Space
A sample space is a complete roster or
listing of all elementary events for an
experiment. Table 1 is the sample space
for the roll of a pair of dice. The sample
space for the roll of a single die is {1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6}. Sample space can aid in finding
probabilities.
Table 1
Set Notation
A set is a collection of objects. We often specify a set by listing its members, or
elements, in parentheses like this {}.
For example A = {2, 4, 6, 8} means that A is the set consisting of numbers 2,4,6,8.
We could also write A ={even numbers less than 9}.
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Union
The union of X, Y is formed by combining elements from each of the sets and is
denoted X Y. An element qualifies for the union of X, Y if it is in either X or Y or in
both X and Y. The union expression X U Y can be translated to “X or Y.” For
example, if
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Intersection
The intersection contains the elements common to both sets. Thus the intersection
is often read as and. The intersection of X, Y is referred to as X and Y.
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two or more events are mutually exclusive events if the occurrence of one event
precludes the occurrence of the other event(s). This characteristic means that
mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously and therefore can have no
intersection.
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Mutually Exclusive Events

A manufactured part is either defective or okay: The part cannot be both okay and
defective at the same time because “okay” and “defective” are mutually exclusive
categories. In a sample of the manufactured products, the event of selecting a
defective part is mutually exclusive with the event of selecting a non defective part.

Suppose an office building is for sale and two different potential buyers have placed
bids on the building. It is not possible for both buyers to purchase the building;
therefore, the event of buyer A purchasing the building is mutually exclusive with the
event of buyer B purchasing the building.

In the toss of a single coin, heads and tails are mutually exclusive events. The
person tossing the coin gets either a head or a tail but never both.
 Mutually Exclusive Events ASAP

Two events are incompatible, disjoint or mutually exclusive when the occurence of one precludes the
occurrence of the other, i.e. they can not occur at the same time. For example, we can never have the
head side and the tail side of a coin face up at the same time.
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Independent Events

Two or more events are independent events if the occurrence or nonoccurrence of

one of the events does not affect the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the other
event(s). Certain experiments, such as rolling dice, yield independent events; each
die is independent of the other.

Whether a 6 is rolled on the first die has no influence on whether a 6 is rolled on the
second die. Coin tosses always are independent of each other. The event of getting
a head on the first toss of a coin is independent of getting a head on the second
toss.
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Independent Events

P(X I Y) denotes the probability of X occurring given that Y has occurred. If X and Y
are independent, then the probability of X occurring given that Y has occurred is just
the probability of X occurring.
Knowledge that Y has occurred does not impact the probability of X occurring
because X and Y are independent. For example, P (prefers Pepsi|person is
righthanded) = P (prefers Pepsi) because a person’s handedness is independent of
brand preference.
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Independent Events

Suppose an inspector is randomly selecting bolts from a bin that contains 5%

defects. If the inspector samples a defective bolt and returns it to the bin, on the
second draw there are still 5% defects in the bin regardless of the fact that the first
outcome was a defect. If the inspector does not replace the first draw, the second
draw is not independent of the first; in this case, fewer than 5% defects remain in the
population. Thus the probability of the second outcome is dependent on the first
outcome.
Independence ASAP
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Complimentary Events

The complement of event A is denoted A’ , pronounced “not A.”

All the elementary events of an experiment not in A comprise its complement. For
example, if in rolling one die, event A is getting an even number, the complement of
A is getting an odd number. If event A is getting a 5 on the roll of a die, the
complement of A is getting a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 6. The complement of event A contains
whatever portion of the sample space that event A does not contain,
 Structure of Probability ASAP

Complimentary Events

Suppose 32% of the employees of a company have a college degree. If an

employee is randomly selected from the company, the probability that the person
does not have a college degree is 1 - .32 = .68.

Suppose 42% of all parts produced in a plant are molded by machine A and 31% are
molded by machine B. If a part is randomly selected, the probability that it was
molded by neither machine A nor machine B is 1 - .73 = .27. (Assume that a part is
only molded on one machine.)
 Complementary Events ASAP

If an event is a certainty, then its probability is one.

In common language we often say it is 100% certain (which is the same thing).
For example, in the coin tossing experiment, let C be the event ‘obtaining a head
or a tail’. The sample space is {H, T}.
The event is {H, T}. So P(C) = 2/2 = 1.

Example
If a normal die is rolled, what is the probability that the number showing is less
than 7?
Solution
Sample space = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Event = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Hence the probability (number is less than 7) = 6/ 6 = 1.
Complementary Events ASAP
Complementary Events ASAP
Exercise ASAP
Exercise ASAP
Solution ASAP
 Types of Probability ASAP

Marginal probability is denoted P(E), where E is some

event.

A marginal probability is usually computed by dividing some

subtotal by the whole. An example of marginal probability is
the probability that a person owns a Ford car. This probability
is computed by dividing the number of Ford owners by the
total number of car owners. The probability of a person
wearing glasses is also a marginal probability. This
probability is computed by dividing the number of people
wearing glasses by the total number of people.
 Types of Probability ASAP

Union probability is denoted P(E1 U E2), where E1 and E2

are two events. P(E1 U E2) is the probability that E1 will
occur or that E2 will occur or that both E1 and E2 will occur.

An example of union probability is the probability that a

person owns a Ford or a Chevrolet. To qualify for the union,
the person only has to have at least one of these cars.
Another example is the probability of a person wearing
glasses or having red hair.

All people wearing glasses are included in the union, along

with all redheads and all redheads who wear glasses. In a
company, the probability that a person is male or a clerical
worker is a union probability. A person qualifies for the union
by being male or by being a clerical worker or by being both
(a male clerical worker).
 Types of Probability ASAP

The joint probability of events E1 and E2 occurring is

U U
denoted P(E1 E2). Sometimes P(E1 E2) is read as the
probability of E1 and E2.

To qualify for the intersection, both events must occur. An

example of joint probability is the probability of a person
owning both a Ford and a Chevrolet. Owning one type of car
is not sufficient.

A second example of joint probability is the probability that a

person is a redhead and wears glasses
 Types of Probability ASAP

Conditional probability is denoted P(E1 I E2).This

expression is read: the probability that E1 will occur given
that E2 is known to have occurred.

Conditional probabilities involve knowledge of some prior

information. The information that is known or given is written
to the right of the vertical line in the probability statement.

An example of conditional probability is the probability that a

person owns a Chevrolet given that she owns a Ford. This
conditional probability is only a measure of the proportion of
Ford owners who have a Chevrolet—not the proportion of
total car owners who own a Chevrolet.
Conditional Probability ASAP
Conditional Probability ASAP
Conditional Probability ASAP
 Addition Laws ASAP

The general law of addition is used to find the probability of the union of two events, P (X U Y).
The expression P (X U Y) denotes the probability of X occurring or Y occurring or both X and Y
occurring.
 Addition Laws ASAP

Example:

D&A design Partners conducted a survey for the Indian Society of Interior
Designers in which workers were asked which changes in office design would
increase productivity. Respondents were allowed to answer more than one type of
design change.

The number one change that 70% of the workers said would increase productivity
was reducing noise. In second place was more storage/filing space, selected by
67%. If one of the survey respondents was randomly selected and asked what
office design changes would increase worker productivity, what is the probability
that this person would select reducing noise or more storage/filing space?
 Addition Laws ASAP

Let N represent the event “reducing noise.” Let S

represent the event “more storage/ filing space.” The
probability of a person responding with N or S can be
symbolized statistically as a union probability by using
the law of addition
P(N U S)

To successfully satisfy the search for a person who

responds with reducing noise or more storage/filing
space, we need only find someone who wants at least
one of those two events.
 Addition Laws ASAP

A probability matrix displays the marginal probabilities and the intersection probabilities of a given
problem. Union probabilities and conditional probabilities must be computed from the matrix.

P(N) = .70 is the marginal probability that a person

responds yes to noise reduction. This value is placed in
the “total” in the row of Yes to noise reduction.

If P(N) = .70 then 30% of the people surveyed did not

think that noise reduction would increase productivity.
Thus P(not N) = 1 - .70 = .30. This value, also a marginal
probability, goes in the row indicated by No under noise
reduction
 Addition Laws ASAP

A probability matrix displays the marginal probabilities and the intersection probabilities of a given
problem. Union probabilities and conditional probabilities must be computed from the matrix.

In the column under Yes for increased storage space, the

marginal probability P(S)= 0.67 is recorded.

Finally, the marginal probability of No for increased

storage space P(not S) = 1 - .67 = .33, is placed in the No
column.

The intersection of noise reduction and increased storage

space is given as P(N S) = .56

This value is entered into the probability matrix in the cell

under Yes, Yes. . The rest of the matrix can be
determined by subtracting the cell values from the
marginal probabilities
 Addition Laws ASAP

The probability of a person suggesting noise

reduction or increased storage space as a solution for
improving productivity P(N U S) can be determined
from the probability matrix by adding the marginal
probabilities of Yes for noise reduction and Yes for
increased storage space and then subtracting the Yes,Yes
cell, following the pattern of the general law of
probabilities.

P (N U S) = .70(from Yes row) + .67(from Yes column)

- .56(From Yes Yes cell) = .81

Another way to solve for the union

probability from the information
displayed in the probability matrix is
to sum all cells in any of the Yes
rows or columns
Exercise ASAP
 Exercise ASAP

Let F denote the event of female and P denote the event of professional worker. The question is P (F U P) = ?
Exercise ASAP
 Exercise ASAP

Let F denote the event of female and P denote the event of professional worker. The question is P (F U P) = ?
 Special law of Addition ASAP

If two events are mutually exclusive, the probability of the union of the
two events is the probability of the first event plus the probability of the
second event. Because mutually exclusive events do not intersect,
nothing has to be subtracted.
Special law of Addition ASAP
 Multiplication law ASAP

U
The notation X Y means that both X and Y must happen. The
general law of multiplication gives the probability that both event X
and event Y will occur at the same time.
 Multiplication law ASAP

According to the Indian Bureau of Labor Statistics, 46% of the labor force is female. In
addition, 25% of the women in the labor force work part time. What is the probability that a
randomly selected member of the Indian labor force is a woman and works part-time? This
question is one of joint probability, and the general law of multiplication can be applied to
answer it.

Let W denote the event that the member of the labor force is a woman. Let T denote the event
that the member is a part-time worker. The question is:
 Multiplication law ASAP

Since 46% of the labor force is women, P(W) = .46 P(TI W) is a conditional probability that can
be stated as the probability that a worker is a part-time worker given that the worker is a
woman. This condition is what was given in the statement that 25% of the women in the labor
force work part time. Hence P(T I W) = .25

It can be stated that 11.5% of the Indian

labor force are women and work part-
time
Multiplication law ASAP
Multiplication law ASAP
Multiplication law ASAP
Summary ASAP
Summary ASAP
 ASAP

Thank you