SOLAR POWER
FORECASTING
USING
DIFFERENT ML
ALGORITHMS
MACHINE-LEARNING PROJECT
1. INTRODUCTION & OBJECTIVE:
•Project Goal: The main goal is to predict solar power generation
accurately by utilizing machine learning algorithms.
•Motivation:
•Solar power is a key renewable energy source, and accurate forecasting
aids in balancing supply and demand in power grids.
•Solar energy’s dependency on weather conditions makes prediction
challenging, but crucial for energy grid stability.
•Scope: This project compares several machine learning models to
determine which algorithm is most suitable for solar power forecasting.
2. DATA PREPARATION AND PREPROCESSING:
•Data Collection:
•Imported multiple datasets that included weather features and solar power
output readings over time.
•Ensured data was relevant and had a sufficient time range to support reliable
forecasting.
•Datetime Formatting and Merging:
•Reformatted datetime fields for uniformity.(from data srting format to object).
•Merged data frames to bring all features into a single dataset, enabling
effective analysis and model input.
2. DATA PREPARATION AND PREPROCESSING:
• Handling Missing Values:
• Checked for null values and employed techniques like interpolation or mean
imputation to fill missing data.
• Discussed handling missing values as critical for model stability and accuracy.
• Feature Engineering:
• Encoding Categorical Data: Converted non-numeric data such as 'SOURCE_KEY'
(representing unique solar power sources) into numerical codes for model
compatibility.
• Feature Correlation Analysis: Analyzed the correlation matrix to determine
which features significantly impact solar power output, reducing unnecessary
predictors and improving model interpretability.
3. MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS USED:
•Overview of Model Selection:
•Chose a mix of linear, non-linear,
and ensemble models to assess
their suitability in predicting solar
power, given the complexity and
potential non-linear relationships in
solar data.
3. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS USED:
•Models and Key Characteristics:
•Partial Least Squares (PLS) Regression:(non- linear):
•Reduces dimensionality while addressing multicollinearity.
•Extracts a smaller number of components that explain both input features
and target variable variance
•Linear Regression:
• Simple baseline model; provides an initial understanding of linear dependencies.
3. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS USED:
•K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) Regression:(non linear)
• Predicts based on similarity with nearby historical points.
• Adaptable to complex datasets without making assumptions about data
distribution.
• Random Forest Regression:
• An ensemble method combining multiple decision trees.
• Effective in handling non-linear relationships and capturing complex
interactions among features.
• Decision Tree Regression:
• it a non-linear model which find the relationship by spliting data into
segment based on features.
4. MODEL EVALUATION METRICS:
•RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error):
•Measures the average deviation of predicted values from actual values.
•Lower RMSE indicates better model accuracy, making it a primary metric for this
project.
•R² Score (Coefficient of Determination):
•Indicates the proportion of variance in the target variable explained by the model.
•A higher R² value (close to 1) signifies a better model fit, useful for comparing models’
explanatory power.
5. RESULTS & ANALYSIS:
•Best Performing Model:
•Random Forest Regression achieved the lowest RMSE and the highest R²
score, indicating superior performance on this dataset.
•Performance Comparison:
•Highlighted how each model fared, emphasizing that models with non-linear
capabilities (Random Forest) outperformed simpler models like Linear
Regression.
•Observed that Random Forest could better capture the complex, variable
nature of solar power data, providing more stable and accurate predictions.
•Insights:
•Non-linear models are often more suitable for solar forecasting due to
environmental fluctuations.
6. CONCLUSION:
•Summary of Findings:
• This project demonstrated that machine learning is effective for solar power forecasting.
• Random Forest Regression emerged as the top model, providing high accuracy and
robustness.
•Project Limitations:
• Limited feature set and reliance on historical data may limit accuracy during
unexpected weather events.
• Computational complexity for ensemble methods may increase with larger datasets.
Created By : Arzoo shahid
