Simply, this predictor is based on typical "feature+classifier" machine learning framework.
- feature: ELO rating, win/draw/lose rate, goal/fumble from 1920
- label: goal difference between team1 and team2
- classifier: Random Forest Classifier
- environment: Python2.7, scikit-learn package;
- run group_stage.py to get group stage results (nation_point.csv and promoted_nation.csv);
- run knockout_stage.py to get final results (knockout.csv).
The code is a little in chaos due to limited time. Maybe I'll update it.
Germany
| round | team1 | team2 | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | france | ukraine | 3 |
| 16 | spain | italy | 1 |
| 16 | england | romania | 1 |
| 16 | portugal | ireland | 3 |
| 16 | germany | romania | 2 |
| 16 | belgium | czechia | 1 |
| 16 | switzerland | poland | 2 |
| 16 | slovakia | austria | 1 |
| 8 | france | spain | 1 |
| 8 | england | portugal | 3 |
| 8 | germany | belgium | 1 |
| 8 | switzerland | slovakia | 1 |
| 4 | france | england | 1 |
| 4 | germany | switzerland | 2 |
| 2 | france | germany | -1 |
Standings
| group | team | points | goal difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| a | switzerland | 7 | 3 |
| a | france | 5 | 1 |
| a | romania | 4 | 1 |
| a | albania | 0 | -5 |
| b | england | 5 | 3 |
| b | slovakia | 5 | 2 |
| b | wales | 2 | -2 |
| b | russia | 2 | -3 |
| c | germany | 7 | 4 |
| c | ukraine | 4 | -1 |
| c | poland | 4 | -1 |
| c | northern ireland | 1 | -2 |
| d | spain | 9 | 3 |
| d | czechia | 4 | 1 |
| d | turkey | 2 | -1 |
| d | croatia | 1 | -3 |
| e | belgium | 7 | 2 |
| e | ireland | 5 | 1 |
| e | italy | 4 | 0 |
| e | sweden | 0 | -3 |
| f | portugal | 9 | 6 |
| f | austria | 6 | 3 |
| f | hungary | 3 | -4 |
| f | iceland | 0 | -5 |
Matches Details
((team1,team2),result)
(('france', 'romania'), 0)
(('france', 'albania'), 1)
(('france', 'switzerland'), 0)
(('romania', 'albania'), 2)
(('romania', 'switzerland'), -1)
(('albania', 'switzerland'), -2)
(('england', 'russia'), 3)
(('england', 'wales'), 0)
(('england', 'slovakia'), 0)
(('russia', 'wales'), 0)
(('russia', 'slovakia'), 0)
(('wales', 'slovakia'), -2)
(('germany', 'ukraine'), 2)
(('germany', 'poland'), 2)
(('germany', 'northern ireland'), 0)
(('ukraine', 'poland'), 0)
(('ukraine', 'northern ireland'), 1)
(('poland', 'northern ireland'), 1)
(('spain', 'czechia'), 1)
(('spain', 'turkey'), 1)
(('spain', 'croatia'), 1)
(('czechia', 'turkey'), 0)
(('czechia', 'croatia'), 2)
(('turkey', 'croatia'), 0)
(('belgium', 'italy'), 1)
(('belgium', 'ireland'), 0)
(('belgium', 'sweden'), 1)
(('italy', 'ireland'), 0)
(('italy', 'sweden'), 1)
(('ireland', 'sweden'), 1)
(('portugal', 'iceland'), 2)
(('portugal', 'austria'), 1)
(('portugal', 'hungary'), 3)
(('iceland', 'austria'), -2)
(('iceland', 'hungary'), -1)
(('austria', 'hungary'), 2)
historcal data from fedebayle
euro2016 data from nowaycomputer