oh fumk...

kitty artist 🌈🖍️

I know writers who take the time to edit their rants before publishing them, and they're all cowards. Fresh off the print, here's my longform view on some of the major takeaways from this presidential election

Shortened, my argument is:

1. Inflation is the primary explanation for Trump's victory
2. Joe Biden's initial insistence on running is also important
3. Third party and write-in voters did not decide this election
4. The Democrats should stop taking voters of color for granted
5. "Never Trump Republicans" are not a real voting bloc

Rather than losing by 78,000 votes, it now appears that Harris is set to lose by millions. This is a loss large enough that it would likely have happened even if many of the more marginal choices in this campaign season had been different.

[...] First: Harris did worse than Biden almost everywhere, in both Democratic and Republican areas. Although a few suburban areas bucked this trend by moving in the Democratic direction, the overall picture was disastrous, with Harris losing much of her margin even in Democratic strongholds like New York City. [...] Second, Harris underperformed Senate Democrats.

[...] The first fact above tells us that the entire country turned away from the Democratic ticket this year, and the second fact tells us that this frustration was focused more at the national Democratic ticket than it was at more local Democratic politicians. Can anyone think of something new in US politics since 2020 that has affected everyone across the country in a negative way, and which the average person tends to (wrongly) blame on the President?

The years 2021–2023 saw the highest inflation rate that the US has experienced since 1991. When inflation hit its peak of 8% in 2022, it was the highest level of inflation the US had experienced since 1981. The disruptions this caused to the American economy were significant, but the disruptions it caused to the American psyche were far larger.

That inflation has played such a large part in the thinking of American voters has greatly frustrated some of my fellow policy wonks who have been desperate to point out that 1) inflation was going to rise during the aftershock of the COVID-19 pandemic no matter what anyone did, 2) the US has experienced less inflation than most other wealthy economies, 3) average wages likely rose faster than inflation depending on how you measure it (even though this effect is unevenly distributed), 4) at least part of the high inflation can be easily justified when looking at record low unemployment and rapid low-end wage growth, and 5) inflation is basically back to normal now, even if it hasn’t meant prices declining as many hoped.

Watching the debate over this topic unfold was immensely frustrating, as both sides were generally talking past one another. The economists were correct that the US economy has actually done very well over the last few years, given the odd circumstances. But none of that changes the fact that people have noticed their cost of living rise, and this has had a large impact on both their wallets and their brains.

To state the obvious, the average person is not a perfectly rational economic calculator. This is especially true for inflation.

[...] I don’t think that many voters could describe the relevant differences in the candidates’ plans; they simply voted out the people in charge because bad things happened while they were in charge. Despite Harris’ half-hearted attempts to frame herself as an outsider this year, people knew she was the closest thing to an incumbent who was on the ballot. For many voters, this wasn’t a vote for a particular platform, but rather a referendum on the status quo (anyone else having 2016 flashbacks?)

The greatest tragedy of all is the effect that this will have on future responses to economic crises. [...] Biden’s administration learned from this [Obama's stimulus] failure and chose to go big. As a result, Biden’s recovery accomplished in five months what took Obama’s recovery years.

This is one of the greatest successes of Biden’s presidency, and he has been punished for it relentlessly. [...] Politicians will now be afraid to commit to countercyclical stimulus spending, even when it’s needed to stave off a depression.

Despite his commitment to a stimulus package far better than his predecessor’s, Joe Biden still holds a tremendous amount of blame for last evening’s results. His decision to run for re-election at all ran contrary to the hopes of many of his own voters that he would be a one-term transition out of Trumpism. The hubris of Biden’s decision became glaringly obvious during his debate with Trump, in which the entire American populace realized en masse that Biden was incapable of running a competent campaign. [...] However poorly Harris may have done in this election, we can be confident that Biden would have done far, far worse. Yet even still, Biden’s presence haunted Harris’ campaign.

[...] The Harris campaign did make a tremendous mistake in hiring many of Biden’s campaign officials for her own campaign. These Biden staffers reportedly tended to discourage Harris from pursuing some of the most successful talking points of her campaign — namely, the “weird” branding — and instead encouraged her to run a traditional Diet Republican campaign like Biden’s.

But if you can point to only one mistake that the Kamala Harris campaign made this year, it was her repeated refusal to explain how she would be different from Joe Biden.

[...] For all of the Democratic anxiety provoked by the notion of a spoiler candidate, this does not appear to have been a significant factor in this year’s election. [...] Not only did third party votes not decide this year’s election, but even in the one state in which they did matter, they were the result of the party’s own failures.

The Democratic Party cannot shame its potential supporters into voting for them. When a Democratic candidate fails, it is the fault of that candidate and the campaign they ran, not the fault of an insufficiently loyal electorate. If you want to minimize the risks of a third party spoiler, you should either expand your base to absorb them, reform our electoral system to eliminate the spoiler effect, or both. What you should not do is send Bill Clinton to Michigan to condescend to voters for caring about human life.

[...] Donald Trump — probably the most outwardly racist, xenophobic, and generally hateful Republican presidential candidate in modern history — has built a multiracial coalition. [...] Simply put, the “demography is destiny” theory has been completely debunked. But can the Party itself learn this?

[...] It is noteworthy that the Democratic Party ran to the right on immigration this year, and then lost many Latino voters to the party which is even further right on immigration. I would not interpret this as a general anti-immigrant sentiment among Latino voters; I would interpret it as Latino voters having enough other issues on their mind that immigration did not singularly decide their vote.

[...] An electoral approach towards communities of color which focuses on symbolic in-group gestures is not enough. The Democratic Party needs to speak to every community directly about the economic and social issues affecting them, rather than just scheduling a stop at Howard University and then calling it a day.

[...] The Never Trump movement has always been a mirage.

I have said it before, and I will say it again: the median voter theorem is dead. Appealing to the mythical “center” of US politics is a highly inefficient route towards national electoral victory in the 21st century, something which the Republican party seems to have realized under Trump. If they want to reverse their fortunes, Democrats should spend less time trying to appeal to Republicans and more time trying to appeal to the people who actually vote for them — including both registered Democrats and many independents. I don’t know how many failures it will take for them to learn this lesson, but I hope that they do so by the time I’m done pulling my hair out.

just wanted to remind everyone again not only of the 3,000+ resources offered through our Liberation Library but also of the study guides for beginners offered under each of our social justice topics!

resources can be organized by type (article, novel, podcast, video, etc.) as well as filtered and searched through. we’ve tried to make our system much more accessible than our former platform on google docs so this is such an exciting development to share with everyone.

please share to promote equitable access education!

Harris now begins her defeat speech. Most expect it to lose in some states due to the Biden administration's support for Israel and its promise to stand by Gaza. Unfortunately, Trump will also not stand with Gaza, and since his term, he has declared Jerusalem the capital of Israel.Please support Gaza because in reality there is no administration or president who stands by the oppressed people of Gaza. Only free peoples stand by them. In this difficult time, I call on you to support my oppressed family in Gaza.

Please stand by my family from famine and devastating war 👈👈

To support my family from here 👈👈

Palestine is free

if you're feeling powerless right now—and god knows I am—here's a reminder you can donate to the National Network of Abortion Funds, the Trans Law Center, Gaza Soup Kitchen, the Palestine Children's Relief Fund, and hundreds of other charities that will work to mitigate the damage that has been and will continue to be inflicted

life continues. we still have the capacity to do good, important work. that matters

now that i've got your attention, i would like to ask everyone to please help Noha @helpnohafamily and the seventeen remaining members of her family. like far too many people, she has suffered greatly over the past year, losing her dearest loved ones, her home and any sense of normalcy.

the gfm is currently at $70,141/$85,000 of the goal.

hi 163 votes but less than half of that in reblogs. please share & donate

Do people realize that choosing to deal with the outcome of this election by going into the inbox of minorities on Tumblr (particularly Arab people) and blaming them is probably not the look they want to go for if they want to dispute that they have internalized racism or view people of color as their punching bag for something that had nothing to do with them

I’m not even saying this recreationally like pop a Xanax no one wants to deal with this

I also can’t believe this needs to be said but why do people feel the need to be like “Is this what you wanted?? Are you you happy now??” Like no???? It was always a decision between two fascists. People of color (and esp Arabs) were dreading this election bc they knew that neither choice would herald any actual change. Now imagine being in a person of color’s shoes and knowing that no matter what you did you’re being fucked over anyway