Probability and Statistics 1

5.3 Probability - Medium

Subject: Mathematics
Syllabus Code: 9709
Level: AS Level
Component: Probability and Statistics 1
Topic: 5.3 Probability
Difficulty: Medium
Questions
1. On Mondays, Rani cooks her evening meal. She has a pizza, a burger or a curry with probabilities
0.35, 0.44 and 0.21 respectively. When she cooks a pizza, Rani has some fruit with probability 0.3.
When she cooks a burger, she has some fruit with probability 0.8. When she cooks a curry, she
never has any fruit. (9709/51/M/J/20 number 5)

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.

(b) Find the probability that Rani has some fruit.
(c) Find the probability that Rani does not have a burger given that she does not have any fruit.

2. Box A contains 7 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box B contains 9 red balls and 5 blue balls. A ball is
chosen at random from Box A and placed in Box B. A ball is chosen at random from Box B. The
tree diagram below shows the probabilities for the colours of the balls chosen. (9709/52/F/M/20
number 6)

(a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities.

Box A Box B

Red

Red

Blue

Red

Blue

Blue

(b) Find the probability that the two balls chosen are not the same colour.
(c) Find the probability that the ball chosen from Box A is blue given that the ball chosen from
Box B is blue.

3. Juan goes to college each day by any one of car, or bus or walking. The probability that he goes by
car is 0.2, the probability that he goes by bus is 0.45 and the probability that he walks is 0.35. When
Juan goes by car, the probability that he arrives early is 0.6. When he goes by bus, the probability
that he arrives early is 0.1. When he walks he always arrives early. (9709/53/M/J/20 number 1)

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.

(b) Find the probability that Juan goes to college by car given that he arrives early.

4. The probability that a student at a large music college choir plays in the band is 0.6. For a student
who plays in the band, the probability that she also sings in the choir is 0.3. For a students who
does not play in the band, the probability that she sings in the choir is x. The probability that a
randomly chosen student from the college does not sing in the choir is 0.58. (9709/51/O/N/20
number 2)

(a) Find the value of x.

Two students from the college are chosen at random.
(b) Find the probability that both students play in the band and both sing in the choir.

1
5. In a certain country, the weather each day is classified as fine or rainy. The probability that a fine
day is followed by a fine day is 0.75 and the probability that a rainy day is followed by a fine day is
0.4. The probability that it is fine on 1 April is 0.8. The tree diagram below shows the possibilities
for the weather on 1 April and 2 April. (9709/52/O/N/20 number 4)
(a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities.
1 April 2 April

Fine

Fine

Rainy

Fine

Rainy

Rainy

(b) Find the probability that 2 April is fine.

Let X be the event that 1 April is fine and Y be the event that 3 April is rainy.
(c) Find P (X ∩ Y ).
(d) Find the probability that 1 April is fine given that 3 April is rainy.
6. A game is played with an ordinary fair 6-sided die. A player throws the die once. If the result is 2, 3,
3 or 5, that result is the player’s score and the player does not throw the die again. If the result is 1
or 6, the player throws the die a second time and the player’s score is the sum of the two numbers
from the two throws. (9709/51/o/n/22 number 5)
(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.
Events A and B are defined as follows
A: the player’s score is 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9
B: the player has two throws
(b) Show that P (A) = 13 .
(c) Determine whether or not events A and B are independent.
(d) Find P (B|A′ ).
7. Marco has four boxes labelled K, L, M and N . He places them in a straight line in the order K,
L, M , N with K on the left. Marco has coloured marbles: one is red, one is green, one is white
and one is yellow. He places a single marble in each box, at random. Events A and B are defined
as follows. (9709/52/F/M/23 number 5)
A: The white marble is either in box L or box M
B: The red marble is to the left of both the green marble and the yellow marble
Determine whether or not events A and B are independent.
8. A sports event is taking place for 4 days, beginning on Sunday. The probability that it will rain
on Sunday is 0.4. On any subsequent day, the probability that it will rain is 0.7 if it rained on the
previous day and 0.2 if it did not rain on the previous day. (9709/52/M/J/23 number 2)

2
 (a) Find the probability that it does not rain on any of the 4 days of the event.
(b) Find the probability that the first day on which it rains during the event is Tuesday.
(c) Find the probability that it rains on exactly one of the 4 days of the event.

9. Jasmine throws two ordinary fair 6-sided dice at the same time and notes the numbers on the
uppermost faces. The events A and B are defined as follows. (9709/53/M/J/23 number 5) A:
The sum of the two numbers is less than 6. B: The difference between the two numbers is at most
2

(a) Determine whether or not the events A and B are independent.

(b) Find P (B|A′ ).

10. Freddie has two bags of marbles

Bag X contains 7 red marbles and 3 blue marbles
Bag Y contains 4 red marbles and 1 blue marble
Freddie chooses one bag at random. A marble is removed at random from that bag and not replaced.
A new red marble is now added to each bag. A second marble is then removed at random from the
same bag that the first marble had been removed from. (9709/52/O/N/23 number 6)

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information, showing the probability on each of the
branches.
(b) Find the probability that both of the marbles removed from the bag are the same colour.
(c) Find the probability that the bag Y is chosen given that the marbles removed are not both the
same colour.

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Answers
1. On Mondays, Rani cooks her evening meal. She has a pizza, a burger or a curry with probabilities
0.35, 0.44 and 0.21 respectively. When she cooks a pizza, Rani has some fruit with probability 0.3.
When she cooks a burger, she has some fruit with probability 0.8. When she cooks a curry, she
never has any fruit. (9709/51/M/J/20 number 5)

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.

Start by drawing three branches,

Label each branch with Pizza, Burger, Curry, and the respective probabilities,
Pizza
0.35
0.44
Burger
0.21

Curry

Draw branches extending from first set of branches labelled with Fruit or No Fruit,
for each of Pizza, Burger and Curry and label with respective probabilities,

0.3 Fruit
0.7
Pizza No Fruit
0.35
0.8 Fruit
0.44
Burger 0.2
0.21 No Fruit
0
Curry Fruit
1
No Fruit

This is the final piece.

(b) Find the probability that Rani has some fruit.

Let’s construct an expression for Rani having some fruit,

P (F ) = P (P F ) + P (BF ) + P (CF )

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 Use the tree diagram to evaluate the expression,

P (F ) = (0.35 × 0.3) + (0.44 × 0.8) + (0.21 × 0)

This simplifies to give,

P (F ) = 0.457

Therefore, the final answer is,

P (F ) = 0.457
(c) Find the probability that Rani does not have a burger given that she does not have any fruit.

This is conditional probability,

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

Let’s assign the letters to their events in context,

A - Rani does not have fruit

B - Rani does not have a burger

A ∩ B - Rani does not have fruit and does not have a burger

Note: In the formula, it is B given A. So from the question, assign the ’given’ event
to A, and the other event to B.

Now let’s find the probability of event A happening. In part (b) we calculated the
probability that Rani has fruit, we can use that to find the probability that he does
not have fruit,
P (A) = 1 − P (Fruit)
P (A) = 1 − 0.457
P (A) = 0.543

Now let’s find the probability of the intersection of A and B. This can be written
as,
P (A ∩ B) = P (No Burger and No Fruit)
P (A ∩ B) = P (Pizza and No Fruit) + P (Curry and No Fruit)

Read off the probabilities from the tree diagram,

P (A ∩ B) = (0.35 × 0.7) + (0.21 × 1)

This simplifies to give,

P (A ∩ B) = 0.245 + 0.21
P (A ∩ B) = 0.455

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 Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional probability,

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
0.455
P (B|A) =
0.543
455
P (B|A) =
543
P (B|A) = 0.838

Therefore, the final answer is,

P (B|A) = 0.838

2. Box A contains 7 red balls and 1 blue ball. Box B contains 9 red balls and 5 blue balls. A ball is
chosen at random from Box A and placed in Box B. A ball is chosen at random from Box B. The
tree diagram below shows the probabilities for the colours of the balls chosen. (9709/52/F/M/20
number 6)

(a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities.

Box A Box B

10 Red
15

7
Red
8
5
15 Blue

9 Red
15
1
8
Blue
6
15 Blue

(b) Find the probability that the two balls chosen are not the same colour.

Let’s construct an expression for our problem,

P (RB) + P (BR)

Read off the values from the tree diagram,

   
7 5 1 9
× + ×
8 15 8 15

This simplifies to give,

11
30

6
 Therefore, the final answer is,
11
30
(c) Find the probability that the ball chosen from Box A is blue given that the ball chosen from
Box B is blue.

This is conditional probability,

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

A - Box B ball is blue

B - Box A ball is blue
A ∩ B - Box B ball is blue and box A ball is blue

Let’s find the probability that the box B ball is blue,

P (A) = P (RB) + P (BB)

Read off the values from the tree diagram,

7 5 1 6
P (A) = × + ×
8 15 8 15
41
P (A) =
120

Now let’s find the probability that the box B ball is blue and the box A ball is also
blue,
P (A ∩ B) = P (BB)

Read off the values from the tree diagram,

1 6
P (A ∩ B) = ×
8 15
1
P (A ∩ B) =
20

Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional probability,

1 41
P (B|A) = ÷
20 120

This simplifies to give,

6
P (B|A) =
41

7
 Therefore, the final answer is,
6
P (B|A) =
41
3. Juan goes to college each day by any one of car, or bus or walking. The probability that he goes by
car is 0.2, the probability that he goes by bus is 0.45 and the probability that he walks is 0.35. When
Juan goes by car, the probability that he arrives early is 0.6. When he goes by bus, the probability
that he arrives early is 0.1. When he walks he always arrives early. (9709/53/M/J/20 number 1)

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.

0.6 E

C NE
0.2 0.4
0.1 E
0.45
B
0.9 NE
0.35 1
W E
0
NE

(b) Find the probability that Juan goes to college by car given that he arrives early.

This is conditional probability,

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
A - Juan arrives early
B - Juan goes by car
A ∩ B - Juan arrives early and he goes by car

Let’s find the probability that Juan arrives early,

P (A) = P (CE) + P (BE) + P (W E)

Read off the values from the tree diagram,

P (A) = 0.2 × 0.6 + 0.45 × 0.1 + 0.35 × 1

P (A) = 0.515

Now let’s find the probability that Juan arrives early and goes by car,

P (A ∩ B) = P (CE)

Read off the values from the tree diagram,

P (A ∩ B) = 0.2 × 0.6

P (A ∩ B) = 0.12

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 Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional probability,
0.12
P (B|A) =
0.515

This simplifies to give,

12
P (B|A) =
515

Therefore, the final answer is,

12
P (B|A) =
515
4. The probability that a student at a large music college choir plays in the band is 0.6. For a student
who plays in the band, the probability that she also sings in the choir is 0.3. For a students who
does not play in the band, the probability that she sings in the choir is x. The probability that a
randomly chosen student from the college does not sing in the choir is 0.58. (9709/51/O/N/20
number 2)

(a) Find the value of x.

Let’s draw a tree diagram to represent the given information,

0.3 S

B
0.6
0.7
NS

x S
0.4
NB
1−x
NS

We are given that,

P (N S) = 0.58

Let’s construct an expression using our tree diagram,

P (N S) = P (B ∩ N S) + P (N B ∩ N S)

Read off the values from the tree diagram,

P (N S) = 0.6 × 0.7 + 0.4 × (1 − x)

P (N S) = 0.42 + 0.4 − 0.4x

P (N S) = 0.82 − 0.4x

Equate this to 0.58,

0.82 − 0.4x = 0.58

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 Solve for x,
0.4x = 0.82 − 0.58
0.4x = 0.24
x = 0.6

Therefore, the final answer is,

x = 0.6
Two students from the college are chosen at random.
(b) Find the probability that both students play in the band and both sing in the choir.

Let’s start by finding the probability that one student is in the band and also sings
in the choir,
P (BS) = 0.6 × 0.3
P (BS) = 0.18

Since we have two students, we will square that value,

0.182
0.0324

Therefore, the final answer is,

0.0324
5. In a certain country, the weather each day is classified as fine or rainy. The probability that a fine
day is followed by a fine day is 0.75 and the probability that a rainy day is followed by a fine day is
0.4. The probability that it is fine on 1 April is 0.8. The tree diagram below shows the possibilities
for the weather on 1 April and 2 April. (9709/52/O/N/20 number 4)
(a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities.
1 April 2 April

0.75 Fine

Fine
0.8
0.25 Rainy

0.4 Fine
0.2
Rainy
0.6 Rainy

(b) Find the probability that 2 April is fine.

Use the tree diagram to evaluate,

P (F ∩ F ) + P (R ∩ F )
0.8 × 0.75 + 0.2 × 0.4

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 This simplifies to give,
0.68

Therefore, the final answer is,

0.68
Let X be the event that 1 April is fine and Y be the event that 3 April is rainy.
(c) Find P (X ∩ Y ).

We are saying that 1 April is fine,

0.8

2 April has not been mentioned, so we have to consider both when its fine and when
its rainy,
0.8 × 0.75 or 0.8 × 0.25

We know that 3 April is rainy,

0.8 × 0.75 × 0.25 or 0.8 × 0.25 × 0.6

Simplify both scenarios,

0.15 or 0.12

Add the results of the two scenarios,

P (X ∩ Y ) = 0.15 + 0.12

P (X ∩ Y ) = 0.27

Therefore, the final answer is,

P (X ∩ Y ) = 0.27

(d) Find the probability that 1 April is fine given that 3 April is rainy.

This is conditional probability,

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)
A - 3 April is rainy
B - 1 April is fine
A ∩ B - 3 April is rainy and 1 April is fine

Let’s find the probability that 3 April is rainy. In part (c) we found the probability
that 3 April is rainy when 1 April is fine, now let’s also find the probability that 3
April is rainy when 1 April is rainy,

(0.2 × 0.4 × 0.25) + (0.2 × 0.6 × 0.6)

0.092

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Add this value to the answer for part (c), to get P (A),

P (A) = 0.092 + 0.27

P (A) = 0.362

P (A ∩ B) is the same as our answer for part (c),

P (A ∩ B) = 0.27

Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional probability,

0.27
P (B|A) =
0.362

This simplifies to give,

135
P (B|A) =
181

Therefore, the final answer is,

135
P (B|A) =
181

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6. A game is played with an ordinary fair 6-sided die. A player throws the die once. If the result is 2, 3,
3 or 5, that result is the player’s score and the player does not throw the die again. If the result is 1
or 6, the player throws the die a second time and the player’s score is the sum of the two numbers
from the two throws. (9709/51/O/N/22 number 5)

(a) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.

1
6 1
1
6 2
1
6 3
1
6
4
1
6
1 5
1
6
6
1
6
2
1
6
1
6 3
1
6
1 4
6

1
6 1
5 6 1
1
6
2
1
6
6 3
1
6

1
4
6

1 5
6

Events A and B are defined as follows A: the player’s score is 5, 6, 7, 8 or 9 B: the player
has two throws
(b) Show that P (A) = 13 .

Let’s write down all the possible scenarios,

We get a 5 from throwing the die once

We get a 5 from throwing a 1 followed by a 4

We get a 6 from throwing a 1 followed by a 5
We get a 7 from throwing a 1 followed by a 6
We get a 7 from throwing a 6 followed by a 1

13
 We get an 8 from throwing a 6 followed by a 2
We get a 9 from throwing a 6 followed by a 3

Let’s evaluate the first scenario, the probability of getting a 5 from throwing the die
once,
1
6

Let’s evaluate the second scenario, the probability of getting a 5 from throwing a 1
followed by a 4,
1 1
×
6 6
1
36

Let’s evaluate the third scenario, the probability of getting a 6 from throwing a 1
followed by a 5,
1 1
×
6 6
1
36

Let’s evaluate the fourth scenario, the probability of getting a 7 from throwing a 1
followed by a 6,
1 1
×
6 6
1
36

Let’s evaluate the fifth scenario, the probability of getting a 7 from throwing a 6
followed by a 1,
1 1
×
6 6
1
36

Let’s evaluate the sixth scenario, the probability of getting an 8 from throwing a 6
followed by a 2,
1 1
×
6 6
1
36

Let’s evaluate the final scenario, the probability of getting a 9 from throwing a 6
followed by a 3,
1 1
×
6 6
1
36

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 Let’s add up the results of all seven scenarios,
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
P (A) = + + + + + +
6 36 36 36 36 36 36

This simplifies to give,

1
P (A) =
3

Therefore, the final answer is,

1
P (A) =
3
(c) Determine whether or not events A and B are independent.

If events A and B are independent,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

Let’s find P (B). For a player to have two throws they must score either a 1 or 6 on
their first throw,
1 1
P (B) = +
6 6
1
P (B) =
3

Now we need to find P (A ∩ B). The player has two throws and they score a 5, 6, 7,
8 or 9. That is essentially what we calculated in part (b) but we must exclude the
first scenario, since it is a result of 1 throw,
1 1 1 1 1 1
P (A ∩ B) = + + + + +
36 36 36 36 36 36
1
P (A ∩ B) =
6

Now let’s check if events A and B are independent,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)
1 1 1
̸= ×
6 3 3
1 1
̸=
6 9

Therefore, the final answer is,

Events A and B are not independent

(d) Find P (B|A′ ).

This is conditional probability,

P (A′ ∩ B)
P (B|A′ ) =
P (A′ )

15
 Note: A′ read as ’A complement’, is the event that is opposite to A. So in this case
A′ would be ’the player’s score is NOT 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9’.

Let’s find P (A′ ) using P (A),

P (A′ ) = 1 − P (A)
1
P (A′ ) = 1 −
3
2
P (A′ ) =
3

We need to find P (A′ ∩ B). The player has two throws and the scores are NOT 5,
6, 7, 8 or 9. We already calculated this in part. For this to happen, the player must
score the following results from two throws,

A 2 from a 1 and a 1

A 3 from a 1 and a 2
A 4 from a 1 and a 3
A 10 from a 6 and a 4
An 11 from a 6 and a 5
A 12 from a 6 and a 6

1
Just like in part (b), the probability of each of these scenarios happening is 36
, and
there are 6 of these scenarios,
1
P (A′ ∩ B) = ×6
36
1
P (A′ ∩ B) =
6

Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional probability,

1 2
P (B|A′ ) = ÷
6 3
1
P (B|A′ ) =
4

Therefore, the final answer is,

1
P (B|A′ ) =
4
7. Marco has four boxes labelled K, L, M and N . He places them in a straight line in the order K,
L, M , N with K on the left. Marco has coloured marbles: one is red, one is green, one is white
and one is yellow. He places a single marble in each box, at random. Events A and B are defined
as follows. (9709/52/F/M/23 number 5) A: The white marble is either in box L or box M B: The
red marble is to the left of both the green marble and the yellow marble Determine whether or not
events A and B are independent.

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If events A and B are independent,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

Let’s find the probability of A, the white marble is either in box L or M . The probability
of him placing the white marble in box L is 0.25 and this is also the same for box M ,

P (A) = 0.25 + 0.25

1
P (A) =
2

Let’s evaluate P (B).

We are going to treat this as a permutation. Let’s first write our expression to get the
P (B),
R is to the left of G and Y
P (B) =
Total arrangements

For the red marble to be to the left of the green and yellow marbles, it must be in either
of box K or L. Let’s start with the scenario in which it lies within box K,

RGY W

We are rearranging the the 3 marbles that aren’t red,

3!

Now let’s evaluate the scenario in which the red marble lies in box L,

W RGY

The white marble must remain in box K for the red marble to be in box L and still be
to the left of the green and yellow marbles. This means we are only rearranging the 2
green and yellow marbles,
2!
2

Let’s add up the results of the two scenarios,

2+6

Now let’s find the number of ways in which the marbles can be arranged when there are
no restrictions,
W RGY

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We are rearranging all 4 marbles,
4!
24

Now let’s go back to our expression for P (B),

8
P (B) =
24
1
P (B) =
3

Now let’s find P (A ∩ B). The probability that white marble is either in box L or box M
and the red marble is to the left of both the green marble and the yellow marble. Let’s
construct an expression,
W in L or M and R to left of G and Y
P (A ∩ B) =
Total arrangements

There are two scenarios in which the white marble is either in box L or box M and the
red marble is to the left of both the green marble and the yellow marble,

RW Y G

RGW Y

Since we are only rearranging the letters that are not highlighted in both scenarios, the
total number of arrangements are,
2! × 2
4

We already calculated the total number of arrangements when there are no restrictions
to be,
24

Now let’s substitute into our expression for P (A ∩ B),

4
P (A ∩ B) =
24
1
P (A ∩ B) =
6

Now let’s check if our events are independent,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)
1 1 1
= ×
6 2 3
1 1
=
6 6
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 Therefore, the final answer is,

Events A and B are independent

8. A sports event is taking place for 4 days, beginning on Sunday. The probability that it will rain
on Sunday is 0.4. On any subsequent day, the probability that it will rain is 0.7 if it rained on the
previous day and 0.2 if it did not rain on the previous day. (9709/52/M/J/23 number 2)

(a) Find the probability that it does not rain on any of the 4 days of the event.

The probability that it does not rain on the first day, Sunday, is,

0.6

The probability that it won’t rain after that is,

0.6 × 0.8

The probability that it also won’t rain on the third day,

0.6 × 0.8 × 0.8

The probability that it also won’t rain on the final day,

0.6 × 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.8

This simplifies to give,

0.3072

Therefore, the final answer is,

0.3072
(b) Find the probability that the first day on which it rains during the event is Tuesday.

This means it doesn’t rain on the first and second days,

0.6 × 0.8

But it rains on the third day, Tuesday,

0.6 × 0.8 × 0.2

This simplifies to give,

12
125

Therefore, the final answer is,

12
125
(c) Find the probability that it rains on exactly one of the 4 days of the event.

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 Let’s write down all the possible scenarios,

RDDD

DRDD
DDRD
DDDR

Where D stands for does not rain and R stands for it rains.

Let’s evaluate the first scenario,

P (RDDD) = 0.4 × 0.3 × 0.8 × 0.8

P (RDDD) = 0.0768

Let’s evaluate the second scenario,

P (DRDD) = 0.6 × 0.2 × 0.3 × 0.8

P (DRDD) = 0.0288

Let’s evaluate the third scenario,

P (DDRD) = 0.6 × 0.8 × 0.2 × 0.3

P (DDRD) = 0.0288

Let’s evaluate the final scenario,

P (DDDR) = 0.6 × 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.2

P (DDDR) = 0.0768

Let’s add up the results of all the four scenarios,

Total = 0.0768 + 0.0288 + 0.0288 + 0.0768

Total = 0.2112

Therefore, the final answer is,

Total = 0.2112

9. Jasmine throws two ordinary fair 6-sided dice at the same time and notes the numbers on the
uppermost faces. The events A and B are defined as follows. (9709/53/M/J/23 number 5) A:
The sum of the two numbers is less than 6. B: The difference between the two numbers is at most
2

(a) Determine whether or not the events A and B are independent.

20
 Let’s draw a possibility space diagram,

4
Throw 1
3

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Throw 2
Key:
Event A
Event B
A∩B

If events A and B are independent,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

From the diagram we can tell that,

10
P (A) =
36
24
P (B) =
36
8
P (A ∩ B) =
36

Now let’s check if the events are independent,

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)
8 10 24
̸= ×
36 36 36
2 5
̸=
9 27

Therefore, the final answer is,

Events A and B are not independent

(b) Find P (B|A′ ).

21
 This is conditional probability,
P (A′ ∩ B)
P (B|A′ ) =
P (A′ )

Let’s start by finding P (A′ ),

P (A′ ) = 1 − P (A)
10
P (A′ ) = 1 −
36
13
P (A′ ) =
18

A′ ∩ B means the sum of the two numbers is greater than or equal to 6 and the dif-
ference between the two numbers is at most 2. Using our possibility space diagram,
we can tell that,
16
P (A′ ∩ B) =
36

Now let’s substitute into our formula for conditional probability,

16 13
P (B|A′ ) = ÷
36 18
8
P (B|A′ ) =
13

Therefore, the final answer is,

8
P (B|A′ ) =
13
10. Freddie has two bags of marbles Bag X contains 7 red marbles and 3 blue marbles Bag Y contains
4 red marbles and 1 blue marble Freddie chooses one bag at random. A marble is removed at
random from that bag and not replaced. A new red marble is now added to each bag. A second
marble is then removed at random from the same bag that the first marble had been removed from.
(9709/52/O/N/23 number 6)
(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information, showing the probability on each of the
branches.
7
10 R
7 R
10
3
10
B
1
Bag X 8
2 10 R
3
10 B
2
10
B
4
1 4 5 R
2 5
Bag Y R
1
5
B
1 5
5 5 R
B
0 B

22
(b) Find the probability that both of the marbles removed from the bag are the same colour.

Let’s create an expression for our problem,

P (XBB) + P (XRR) + P (Y BB)

We can read these probabilities off of the tree diagram,

1 3 2 1 7 7 1 4 4
× × + × × + × ×
2 10 10 2 10 10 2 5 5

This simplifies to give,

119
200

Therefore, the final answer is,

119
200
(c) Find the probability that the bag Y is chosen given that the marbles removed are not both the
same colour.

This is conditional probability,

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) =
P (A)

A - marbles removed not same colour

B - Bag Y chosen
A ∩ B - marbles removed not same colour and Bag Y chosen

Let’s find the probability that the marbles removed are not all the same colour. In
part (b), we calculated the probability of the marbles being removed having the
same colour,
119
P (A) = 1 −
200
81
P (A) =
200

Now let’s find that bag Y is chosen and the marbles removed are not the same
colour,
P (A ∩ B) = P (Y RB) + P (Y BR)

Read off the values from the tree diagram,

1 4 1 1 1
P (A ∩ B) = × × + × ×1
2 5 5 2 5
9
P (A ∩ B) =
50

23
Now let’s substitute into the formula for conditional probability,
9 81
P (B|A) = ÷
50 200

This simplifies to give,

4
P (B|A) =
9

Therefore, the final answer is,

4
P (B|A) =
9

24