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Tree Diagrams Example

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19 views

Tree Diagrams Example

Uploaded by

slzsdxgcfhjkml
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Example

Topic: Measuring Uncertainty with Probability

Probability - Tree Diagram Exercise

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 1/8


Example

Tree Diagrams

Recall:
Conditional probabilities correspond to second (or higher) level branches in
a
tree diagram.

Multiply probabilities of all branches along a path to find the probability of


a single outcome (using the multiplicative law of probability):

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B|A)

Sum probabilities of all paths leading to an event to find its probability.


The paths represent mutually exclusive outcomes.

P (B) = P (A ∩ B) + P (Ac ∩ B).

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 2/8


Example

Exercise: Tree diagrams from Venn Diagrams

Example: Use the given Venn diagram to build a tree diagram and calculate
all conditional probabilities branching on A first.

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 3/8


Example

Exercise: Step 1

Step 1: Draw the tree diagram and fill in P (A), P (Ac) on first set of
branches.

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 4/8


Example

Exercise: Step 2

Step 2: The probabilities on the second set of branches are the


conditional probabilities. But first we need the intersection probabilities.
Use the Venn diagram:
P (A ∩ B) =

P (A ∩ B c ) =

hi P (Ac ∩ B)
=
P (Ac ∩ B c )
=

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 5/8


Example

Exercise: Step 3

Step 3: Calculate the conditional probabilities:

P (B|A) = P (Bc|A)
=

P (B|Ac) = P (B c |A c )
=

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 6/8


Example

Exercise: Step 4

Step 4: Now complete the tree


diagram.

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 7/8


Example

Challenge

Try the following:


1 Repeat this process, branching on B first.
2 Consider how to get from the tree diagram to the corresponding two-
way table.

Measuring Uncertainty with Probability Introduction to Tree Diagrams 8/8

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