Incredibly comprehensive analysis of a complex topic! Easily the most nuanced and systematic examination of the watershed event that has dogged the global socialist movement and sapped its morale ever since.
Showcasing the advantage of historical materialism, this text is not starry-eyed about Soviet socialism, nor is it defeatist (explicitly rejecting ideas of inevitability).
"Though Gorbachev’s revisionism had a long gestation in CPSU politics and in Soviet society, the Soviet collapse was not foreordained. There were many points in the previous thirty- five years where developments could have headed in another direction." (p. 228)
The text traces an, ahem, 'red thread' from bungled Khrushchevite reforms, through to Brezhnev's cautionary (some say inert) approach, finally to Gorbachev and ultimately Yeltsin. Not to suggest that it was a decades-long conspiracy, but that repeated right-opportunist retreats became the reference-point for "reform" in the absence of sufficient capability to adopt a more imaginative approach. It was a matter of trying to use the old to plug the gaps in the new, to the point that a rotten, festering old overtook the new system.
"The 'democrat' opposition that arose after 1985 had forerunners in the Khrushchev “Thaw” years, 1953 to 1964. Khrushchev had tolerated liberal intellectuals. After 1964, when Brezhnev became less tolerant, part of the intelligentsia created a dissident movement. The dissidents were the heirs of the Bukharin-Khrushchev tradition. The dissidents influenced Gorbachev." (p. 194)
Reforms that unraveled the system were misleadingly identified with the socialist system itself, to the extent that discontent was misdirected. It's rather ironic that the letter of ostensibly "Stalinist" Nina Andreyeva became a pretext, as the author notes, to muzzle and remove from power critics of so-called perestroika.
Genuine flaws existed, of course. There are revelatory statistics, citing the late Gregory Grossman, showing just how vast the "second economy" of legal and illegal private activity went: by 1977, it was up to 65% the size of the official economy in Armenia, 40% in Belorussia, Moldavia, and Ukraine, and 30% in Russia. (74)
The point is not that heavy-handed centralism is an inherent good, but that reform should be tactical, not opportunistic.
Right-opportunist retreats were political, as well as economic. Keeran outlines how Brezhnev, wary of Western influence driven by detente and the consumer demand stoked by Khrushchev's policies and rhetoric, tolerated Russian nationalism as a strategic ideological bulwark against that Western influence. Unfortunately, this reflected a continuity of neglect of the "national question", in spite of earlier genuine Soviet efforts to support national minorities. This fomented and foreshadowed later nationalist movements.
In the Epilogue, the author addresses six theses on the fall of the USSR:
1. Flaws of socialism
2. Popular opposition
3. External factors
4. Bureaucratic counter-revolution
5. Lack of democracy and over-centralization, and
6. The Gorbachev factor
...and ultimately reaffirms the above conclusion: Gorbachev may have been an instigator, but in a myopic right-opportunist fashion rather than some long-term Grand Plan for capitalist restoration.
Because "the Party lacked the vigilance and will to suppress the second economy [black market] and attendant Party and government corruption," (p. 230) right-opportunism took hold until the 'society of the spectacle' disguising liberal reforms as ostensibly socialist broke down in the outbreak of full-on reaction.
"Lenin had defined the essence of right opportunism as sacrificing fundamental principles, particularly the principle of class struggle, for immediate gain and as making unnecessary compromises with the class enemy in hopes of finding a quick and easy advance toward socialism." (p. 130)
The author's mentions of a Maoist critique are cursory and dismissive (notwithstanding that critique's own vacillations in practice), but its play-by-play account of actual bureaucratic maneuvers and events makes it worth letting that slide in engaging with this work.
By way of alternatives, Keeran points approvingly to "what-ifs" around Yuri Andropov. It's an ever-frustrating pattern on the left, of course, to lionize the short-lived leaderships in a hopeless romantic pursuit of inspiration. Still, the author makes a solid case:
"According to Andropov, poor planning and outmoded management, the failure to utilize scientific and technological innovations, reliance on extensive rather than intensive methods of production, and the lack of labor discipline caused the economic shortcomings. Andropov called for the “acceleration [uskorenie] of scientific and technological progress.” Andropov visualized a modernization of production through the application of computer technology." (p. 52)
Where his program would have led, if fully implemented, we'll never know...but this does echo plenty of "cybersocialist" manifestos.
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A couple of excerpts that really boil it down:
"The betrayal of the Soviet Union consisted of the overthrow of socialism and the splintering of the Union state. This resulted directly from five concrete processes: Party liquidation, the media handover to anti-socialist forces, privatizing and marketizing the planned, publicly owned economy, unleashing separatism, and surrendering to U.S. imperialism." (p. 236)
In the end the story of the Soviet collapse was not the inevitable unfolding of a tragedy rooted in the impossibility of socialism. Nor was it a defeat brought about by popular opposition or foreign enemies. Nor was it due to Soviet socialism’s failure to match up to some ideal of socialism that embodied liberal democracy and a mixed economy. Nor was it primarily the story of the conscious betrayal of one man. Rather, it was the story of a triumph of a certain tendency within the revolution itself. It was a tendency rooted at first in the peasant nature of the country and later in a second economy, a sector that flourished because of consumer demands unsatisfied by the first economy and because of the failure of authorities to appreciate the danger it represented and to enforce the law against it. It was a tendency that had manifested itself in Bukharin and Khrushchev before Gorbachev...Some adherents of this tendency believed they were true socialists, though they allied themselves with others whose true sympathies were with money-making and private property. Not until Gorbachev had this tendency in the revolution held full sway and been carried to its logical conclusion. (p. 274-275)
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Why is all of this still relevant?
"the likelihood of revolutions in isolated countries remains, and revolutionaries in the 21st century will face a challenge similar to those in the last, having to build socialism alone or almost alone in the cauldron of imperialist pressures." (p. 253)
This text was first published in 2004. So, the sense of American exceptionalist invulnerability and the "end of history" had given way, by time of publication, to the "War on Terror"/"clash of civilizations". However, much had yet to unfold, from the Great Recession to COVID-19. Point being, it's worth revisiting and pondering the above excerpt in light of more recent talk of a multipolar world, and asking what that means for such movements to build socialism.