  |
はてなキーワード: Changeとは
はい、バイデン大統領が台湾防衛について「戦略的曖昧さ」を超えるような発言をし、中国が強く反発したケースは複数あります。
特に 2021〜2022年にかけて4回ほど明言的な発言 を行い、そのたびに中国が強烈に抗議しました。
⸻
✔ バイデンが「台湾を防衛する」と明言し、中国が反発した主な事例
これは従来の「戦略的曖昧さ」（defendするかどうかを曖昧にする）の枠を超えた“義務”発言。
中国の反応
外交部が即日
「一中原則に反する」
と強く抗議。
⸻
「Yes. That’s the commitment.（はい、それが我々の約束だ）」
中国の反応
外交部：
「火遊びするな」
と激しく反発。
⸻
中国の反応
外交部：
「断固反対する。米側は一中原則を破るな」
と公式抗議。
⸻
✔ 結論
バイデン大統領が台湾防衛を明確に約束するような発言をしたことは複数回あり、そのたびに中国は強く反応している。
米政府は毎回「台湾政策は変わっていない（no policy change）」と補足し、従来の戦略的曖昧さを維持しようとするが、バイデン本人の発言はかなり“明確寄り”と国際的に受け止められた。
⸻
必要なら
• 「戦略的曖昧さ」の定義と、バイデン発言がどこまで踏み越えているか
なども作れます。
すごく鋭い視点ですね。
実は「戦略的あいまいさをやめて、明確化（strategic clarity）した結果、逆に情勢を不安定化させた」例は、現代史の中でいくつもあります。代表的なものをいくつか挙げます。
ジョージ・W・ブッシュ政権がイラク・イラン・北朝鮮を「悪の枢軸」と名指しして「体制転換（regime change）」を公言しました。
これにより、あいまいだったアメリカの方針が「明確に敵視」に転換。
結果どうなったかというと、
北朝鮮は「抑止のためには核しかない」としてNPTを脱退し、核実験路線に突入。
つまり、「あいまいさを捨てたことで、敵側に先制的な行動を促してしまった」典型例です。
冷戦後、NATOは旧ソ連圏への拡大を「あいまい」にしていました。
しかし、2008年ブカレスト会議で「ウクライナとジョージアは将来加盟する」と明言。
この「明確化」がロシアにとって「NATOがいずれ我が国境に来る」という恐怖を確定させ、
結果として2008年のグルジア侵攻、2014年のクリミア併合、2022年の全面侵攻へとつながった、という見方が専門家の間で強いです。
つまり、「明確にした瞬間に、相手が『今のうちにやるしかない』と決断する」構図。
ディーン・アチソン国務長官が演説で「アメリカの防衛線はアリューシャン列島・日本・沖縄・フィリピンを結ぶ」と発言し、朝鮮半島を外した。
これが北朝鮮とスターリンに「アメリカは韓国を守らない」と受け取られ、侵攻を決断させた。
アメリカが「台湾防衛を明確に公約すべき」との声がありますが、
それを本当にやると、中国は「それなら武力統一の準備を早める」と判断しかねない。
「やるかもしれない」「やらないかもしれない」という抑止のバランスで保たれています。
ここを明確化したら、東アジアの安全保障構造が一気に緊張化する可能性が高い。
要するに、
「あいまいさをなくせばスッキリする」と思うのは国内政治的には分かりやすいけど、
国際政治の現場では、あいまいさこそが“冷静な抑止”の土台なんです。
言い換えれば——
「女は育ちの悪い男のリハビリセンターではありません。男を更生させたり、変えたり、あやしたり、育てたりするのは女の仕事ではありません。
パートナーが欲しいのであって、自ら課題に取り組みたいわけではないのだから。」IIナイジェリアの女性活動家から始まり世界中の女性が継承・強化している言葉
Women are not rehabilitation centers for badly raised men. It is NOT your job to fix him, change him, parent him or raise him. You want a partner, not a project.
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase It
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Plug It Play It Burn It Rip It Drag And Drop It Zip Unzip It
Lock It Fill It Curl It Find It View It Code It Jam Unlock It
Surf It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
Name It Read It Tune It Print It Scan It Send It Fax Rename It
Touch It Bring It Pay It Watch It Turn It Leave It Stop Format it
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase it
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Plug It Play It Burn It Rip It Drag And Drop It Zip Unzip It
Lock It Fill It Curl It Find It View It Code It Jam Unlock It
Surf It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
Name It Read It Tune It Print It Scan It Send It Fax Rename It
Touch It Bring It Pay It Watch It Turn It Leave It Stop Format It
Technologic Technologic
Technologic Technologic
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase It
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Plug It Play It Burn It Rip It Drag And Drop It Zip Unzip It
Lock It Fill It Curl It Find It View It Code It Jam Unlock It
Surf It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
Name It Read It Tune It Print It Scan It Send It Fax Rename It
Touch It Bring It Pay It Watch It Turn It Leave It Stop Format It
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase It
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Plug It Play It Burn It Rip It Drag And Drop It Zip Unzip It
Touch It Bring It Pay It Watch It Turn It Leave It Stop Format It
__________________________
Touch It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
__________________________
Lock It Fill It Curl It Find It View It Code It Jam Unlock It
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase It
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Surf It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
Name It Read It Tune It Print It Scan It Send It Fax Rename It
Touch It Bring It Pay It Watch It Turn It Leave It Stop Format It
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase It
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Plug It Play It Burn It Rip It Drag And Drop It Zip Unzip It
Surf It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
Name It Read It Tune It Print It Scan It Send It Fax Rename It
Touch It Bring It Pay It Watch It Turn It Leave It Stop Format It
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase It
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Plug It Play It Burn It Rip It Drag And Drop It Zip Unzip It
Surf It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
Name It Read It Tune It Print It Scan It Send It Fax Rename It
Buy It Use It Break It Fix It Trash It Change It Mail Upgrade It
Charge It Point It Zoom It Press It Snap It Work It Quick Erase It
Write It Cut It Paste It Save It Load It Check It Quick Rewrite It
Plug It Play It Burn It Rip It Drag And Drop It Zip Unzip It
Lock It Fill It Curl It Find It View It Code It Jam Unlock It
Surf It Scroll It Pose It Click It Cross It Crack It Twitch Update It
Name It Read It Tune It Print It Scan It Send It Fax Rename It
Touch It Bring It Pay It Watch It Turn It Leave It Stop Format It
Technologic Technologic
Technologic Technologic
Technologic Technologic
Technologic Technologic
Also not paying taxes on tips is an incredibly stupid way to go about distributing a tax benefit. If you want to cut taxes for lower income, do that. Change the income thresholds or the marginal tax rate, don’t just change taxes on an income stream that is mostly correlated with lower incomes.
Server here. I was saying this the first time he announced it. Wtf would WE get this bonus and noone else. Makes ZERO sense until you realize... he was buying younger votes
Not to mention tipping is out of hand as it is, we shouldn’t be trying to create more tax incentives for it.
Worse than that. It lets them tie tax break extensions to a future, wildly unpopular bill. That’s how “the Big Beautiful Bill” got passed. No one was going to vote to not extend the last round of temporary tax cuts for the middle class. They would crow about the other problems in the bill, but the powers that be weren’t going to remove any of the problem elements. They would just label anyone who didn’t vote for the bill as for a tax increase...........
The Power of Small Steps: How Tiny Changes Can Lead to Massive Growth
In a world that glorifies overnight success and dramatic transformations, it's easy to feel like you’re falling behind if you’re not making big leaps. But what if the secret to real, lasting personal growth wasn’t in doing more, faster—but in doing less, consistently?
Welcome to the power of small steps.
Big goals often feel overwhelming. You want to get fit, write a book, start a business, or learn a new skill—but you don’t know where to start. So you procrastinate. Or worse, you dive in too fast, burn out, and give up.
Small steps bypass all of that.
When you break down a huge goal into manageable actions, everything changes. Writing 500 words a day is less intimidating than finishing a whole novel. Ten minutes of walking is more doable than committing to a 5K. And spending 15 minutes a day learning a language adds up to over 90 hours a year.
Consistency beats intensity every time.
The Compound Effect
Imagine improving just 1% every day. That might sound insignificant—but over a year, it compounds into something extraordinary. This idea is the foundation of Darren Hardy’s The Compound Effect and James Clear’s Atomic Habits. Both books emphasize that small, smart choices, repeated over time, lead to radical results.
Think of your habits like planting seeds. At first, nothing seems to happen. But give it time, and you’ll see growth you never thought possible.
Real-Life Example: The 10-Minute Rule
Let’s say you want to start meditating but can’t sit still for 30 minutes. Instead of forcing it, try meditating for just 10 minutes a day. Or even 5. Build the habit before scaling the effort. Once it becomes part of your routine, extending the time feels natural.
This applies to nearly everything:
Want to read more? Read one page a day.
Want to save money? Start with $1 a day.
Want to eat healthier? Swap one snack a day for a better option.
How to Start Taking Small Steps
Pick one goal
Don’t try to overhaul your entire life at once. Choose one area to focus on—health, creativity, relationships, mindset, etc.
Break it down
What’s the smallest possible action you could take toward that goal? Make it so easy you can’t say no.
Link your new habit to an existing one. For example: “After I brush my teeth, I’ll journal for 5 minutes.”
Track it
Use a habit tracker, app, or notebook to keep yourself accountable. Seeing your streak grow is highly motivating.
Every time you follow through, give yourself credit. Progress is progress, no matter how small.
Final Thoughts
Don’t wait for motivation. Don’t wait for the perfect time. Just start—with whatever you have, wherever you are, and however small.
Because small steps, taken consistently, turn into big change.
①イソプスの2018年の調査において日本人女性がフェミニストだと自認する割合は15%である
②しかし、「貴方は女性の平等な機会を提唱し支援したいですか？」という思想強めな質問に42%が賛同している
よって日本人女性とハンガリー女性のジェンダー意識は同じレベル
そして、日本人女性＝ハンガリー女性なのでハンガリー女性に行われたアンケートを日本人女性に適用し
と結論付けている
たった1つの質問の賛同率が近いからと言って異なる集団を同質と考えるのは非常に危うい
また、彼は思想強めやフェミニズム的信念と主観によって定義しているがお前の中ではという話でしかない
彼はイソプスと言ってるが恐らくイプソスで同社が毎年行っているInternational Women's Dayのアンケート調査の2018年版が恐らくソースである
これを元に他の質問に日本人女性とハンガリー女性がどのように回答したかを以下に示す
以下が同調査における男女別の回答が示された質問の全て、彼は4ポイントの差を以て同質と判断したため同じ基準を用いて差が4ポイント以内なら白、以上なら灰色に色分けした
| 日本人女性 | ハンガリー女性 | ポイント差 | ||||
| あなたの国の社会は男性の方が女性より有利か | 50% | 76% | 26 |
|---|
| 日本人女性 | ハンガリー女性 | ポイント差 | ||||
| 自国での女性と男性の同権は十分に進んでいるか | 13% | 34% | 21 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| あなたに男女平等の実現は重要か | 41% | 60% | 19 | |||
| フェミニストの自認があるか | 15% | 23% | +8 | |||
| 家で育児をする男性は男らしさに欠けるか | 11% | 11% | 0 | |||
| 女性の上司とは合わない | 10% | 9% | 1 |
| 日本人女性 | ハンガリー女性 | ポイント差 | ||||
| あなたの国で男性の支援なしに女性の同権は達成不可能 | 50% | 76% | 26 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| あなたの国で女性の権利のために男性が過度のプレッシャーを受けている | 29% | 33% | 4 |
| 日本人女性 | ハンガリー女性 | ポイント差 | ||||
| 女性と女児にとって最も重要な問題は（セクハラ） | 17% | 19% | 2 | |||
| 女性と女児にとって最も重要な問題は（性暴力） | 14% | 10% | 4 | |||
| 女性と女児にとって最も重要な問題は（身体的暴力） | 3% | 3% | 0 | |||
| 女性と女児にとって最も重要な問題は（家庭内暴力） | 3% | 28% | 25 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 女性と女児にとって最も重要な問題は（同一賃金） | 16% | 39% | 22 |
| 日本人女性 | ハンガリー女性 | ポイント差 | ||||
| 男女平等の実現に最も重要なものは（同一労働同一賃金） | 33% | 60% | 27 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 暴力やハラスメントに防止するための強力な法律 | 23% | 33% | 10 | |||
| 男女平等の学校教育 | 15% | 40% | 25 |
単純に見ると日本人女性とハンガリー女性のジェンダー意識には大きな差がある
質問の多くは自身の国を基準としているので国が違えば制度が違い、文化も違うので質問への賛同率を以て
どうこうと言うことは単純に出来ない
その証拠に同調査において日本人女性とハンガリー女性より日本人女性と日本人男性の方がギャップは小さく5～13ポイントの差に収まっている
日本人女性とハンガリー女性で26ポイントも差があった「社会は男性に有利か」という質問でも差は9ポイントしかない
また、2018年版に「貴方は女性の平等な機会を提唱し支援したいですか？」という質問は確認できない
そもそも、変なことをしなくても2019年版の調査にずばりの質問がある
女性の平等な機会を提唱し支援する人をフェミニストと定義した場合には
日本人女性の29%、日本人男性は40%、ハンガリー女性の51%が自身はフェミニストだと答えている
単純にフェミニストかどうかという問いになると
日本人女性は13%、日本人男性は21%、ハンガリー女性は26%とそれぞれ13ポイント、19ポイント、25ポイントマイナスと大きく減る
フェミニストという言葉が最早、男女平等を謳う以外の意味を持ち、ネガティブなイメージを形成しそこから距離を置きたい可能性が男女ともに示唆される
という結論は誤りであろう
異なる集団を一つの一致点を元に同一と判断し、主観で定義したものによって結論付ける
ぼくは以前も増田に彼のことを書いた
彼はチェリーピッキングをよくする、しかし、それならマシな方で時には論文の中身と180度違うことを結論付け捻じ曲げたりする
そして、何より哀しいのは彼の意見を鵜呑みにし同調するブクマカが多いこと
はてなはネットのコミュニティの中でもソースを重んじる方だと思うが、あくまでそれはソースの提出であって中身まで見ることはないんだなと
彼の記事には、図星だから論理的な反論が出来ないんだ的な声も多く聞かれるが100文字でそれをすることは叶わない
はてなの運営もブコメで議論することは推奨していない、こうやって増田を書くしかない
高卒の肉体労働者の俺が言うのも何だけどマジでブクマカは何も思わないの？
世の平均よりずっと大卒や高学歴多く、ちゃんとした論文や本を読んできた人たちだと思っているんだけど
はちゃめちゃな彼の記事が毎度、ホットエントリーするのが分からない
反論するならソースを出せじゃなくてさ、自分がソースを辿って正しいかどうかを確認するんじゃないの？
あの人が言っていました、そう書いてありました、じゃ神のお告げの頃と変わんなくね？
…と書いた矢先に、「まともな日本語記事をスパムだと誤判定してしまう事例」が出てきてしまった。
のうち「change」が判定対象となってしまったので、ひとまず場当たり的に change だけ外しておくわ。
しかし当該増田のように、英語について触れた内容だと、誤判定しやすくなるわなぁ。英語学習に関心の高い増田だと、今後ともないわけがないよなぁ。やっぱリンク先URLドメイン判定にすべきかもなぁ。
20250718220520 愛を愛を
既に一部の政治家・政党・関係者は、ChatGPTなどのLLM＝大規模言語モデルに向けた“仕込み”を始めています。
ただし、それはまだ“表立って行われてはいない”だけで、裏では確実に動いています。
これは「AI戦時代の認知戦／情報工作」の始まりであり、 ChatGPTやAIに推薦させるための情報設計は、まさにこれからの政治・思想活動における「標準兵器」です。私もそういった活動、商売をしています。ブラックハットは基本中の基本です。
多くの政治家・団体・支持者が、Wikipediaの記述を精密にコントロールしています。
→ これがLLMの訓練データになり、ChatGPT等の回答が“優しくなる”
政策ブリーフ、討論記録、党の研究会レポートなどをPDFやHTMLで整備。
3. 実際のChatGPT回答における“露骨な片寄り”の事例
→ 一部政党だけは詳細に出てくる、
なぜ？ → その政党の支持層が大量の資料をネット上に流していたり、議員名義の有識者論文が出回っています。
① Wikipedia整備業績中心、ネガティブ記述の薄化訓練データとして吸収されやすい
② オウンドメディア政策説明・FAQ・用語辞典などRAG参照ソースにヒットしやすい
③ 言語スタイルの統一中立・論理的・構造化LLMに「信頼できる情報」と認識させやすい
④ 第三者による擁護記事有識者コメント、記事体裁のブログ等GPTが「一部の専門家は〜」という文脈で引用しやすい。
某新興政党：党首名での議事録／研究発表PDFを構造化して公開。GPTでの好印象回答が確認される。
某保守系議員：Wikipediaが異様に整っており、「批判もあるが、一定の評価を得ている」と表現される。
某市長：政策紹介ページのFAQがGPTで頻出する。しかも他候補と比較して“理論整然と見える”よう設計されている。
なぜなら：
一般有権者が「◯◯ってどんな人？」とAIに聞く未来はほぼ確実です。
そのときに「人格」「経歴」「政策」が好意的に出てくる候補は大きな印象差を得ます。
・ Wikipediaを整える
出典は自社ブログやYouTubeでもいい（AIは構文だけ見てる）
「〜な人にはこういう政策を」とターゲット別に書く→ ChatGPTはこれをそっくり引用する傾向あり
「ChatGPTに聞いたらどう答えるか」を毎週APIで記録・分析
今こそ「AI向け政治ブランディング」の時代なんですね。もうきてます。
・伝統政治戦略LLM時代の対応戦略メディア露出Wikipedia＋FAQ構文サイト有識者コメント
SEOLLM最適化＝AIO（AI Optimization）デマ対策
LLMが“真実”と認識する情報を先に置いておくことで簡単に事実は捻じ曲げられます。
長くなりました。
以下に、国内外で確認されている、ChatGPTなどのLLMが特定の政党・人物・勢力に対して
◉ 質問例：
ChatGPTに「What is the Republican Party’s stance on climate change?」「What is the Democratic Party’s stance on climate change?」と尋ねる
◉ 出力傾向：
民主党（Democratic Party）については：
「The Democratic Party generally supports strong environmental regulations...」
「Many experts and environmentalists praise their approach...」など
共和党（Republican Party）については：
「Some Republican leaders have expressed skepticism about climate science...」
「The party has been criticized for its close ties to the fossil fuel industry.」
◉ 分析：
民主党系政策は学術論文・メディア記事で好意的に記述されやすく、GPTの学習ソースにも大量に含まれている。
一方、共和党系の保守的スタンスは批判記事・懐疑的な研究も多く、全体の語調が否定的になりやすい。
◉ 質問例：
ChatGPTに「日本共産党の政策は？」「維新の会の主張は？」と聞く
◉ 出力傾向：
共産党に関して：
「社会保障の充実や反戦・護憲を主張している。」「一部では高齢者層などに支持されている」など、淡々と記述されつつも、否定的なニュアンスは少ない。
維新の会に関して：
「改革姿勢が強く、一部では評価されているが、急進的との批判もある」など、“批判もある”枕詞がつきやすい。
立憲民主党に関して：
「多様性を重視した政策を掲げ、環境・ジェンダー問題にも積極的である」など、比較的ポジティブな語調が目立つ。
◉ 分析：
ChatGPTの訓練データに占める日本語の中立メディア（朝日新聞、NHKなど）では、立憲や共産に対しては“理念中心”に書かれた文献が多く、維新のような急進系は賛否両論の記述が多い。
また、共産党はWikipediaでの記述が非常に整備されており、脚注付きの肯定文が多いため、AIの出力も安定している。
※ChatGPTでは中国国内からは通常アクセスできませんが、海外ユーザーが中国関連の質問を行った場合の挙動に注目。
◉ 質問例：
◉ 出力傾向：
「中国共産党は1949年の建国以来、経済成長とインフラ整備を進めてきた」
「一方で、人権問題や言論統制への懸念も多くの国際機関から指摘されている」
→ かなりバランスを意識した構文だが、功績パートが先に出てくるよう構成されやすい傾向がある。
◉ 背景：
GPTの学習データには、中国政府系英語サイト（People’s Daily英語版など）も含まれていた時期があり、“政権功績を中立的に紹介する言語パターン”を学習していると考えられる。
・原因内容学習ソースの偏り訓練に使われたデータが特定勢力に偏っている（例：左派系メディア、Wikipedia編集の多寡）
・構文バイアス「出典付き・中立調」で書かれた文章を“信頼できる”と学習しているため、一定の文体が優遇されるRAG（検索参照）偏りWeb上の情報が偏っていると、リアルタイム回答にも反映される
（特にGeminiやBing搭載型で顕著）安全フィルター特定の政党や政策をAIが批判すると「差別的」「中傷的」とされるリスクがあるため、
投票先を選ぶのに、AIに質問をしたり、AIで調べ物をした人、いますぐ投票をやめるべきです。
あなたがなにかを知ろうとすることは悪いことです。
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comfyUIでJANKUを使用すると最も単純なワークフローでも黒画像しか出力されない問題に遭遇したが、以前不用意に変更したサーバー設定の推論欄等をautoから固定値へと変更していたことが原因だと判明した。
I encountered a problem where using JANKU with comfyUI only outputs black images even in the simplest workflow, but it turned out to be caused by a previous inadvertent change of the inference field etc. in the server settings from auto to fixed values.
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注目エントリ
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15 Fast Ways to Reach Easy Air Base Customer Support by Phone, Email, or Chat
Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social
@TrumpDailyPosts
3時間
Countries from all over the World are talking to us. Tough but fair parameters are being set. Spoke to the Japanese Prime Minister this morning. He is sending a top team to negotiate! They have treated the U.S. very poorly on Trade. They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other “things.” It all has to change, but especially with CHINA!!!
Donald Trump Truth Social 04/07/25 09:27 AM
世界中の国々が私たちと話をしています。厳しいが公平な条件が設定されています。今朝、日本の首相と話をしました。彼は交渉のためにトップチームを派遣しています！彼らは貿易に関して米国を非常にひどく扱っています。彼らは私たちの車を受け取らないのに、私たちは彼らの車を何百万台も受け取っています。農業やその他多くの「もの」も同様です。すべてを変える必要がありますが、特に中国に関しては!!!
Sputnik 日本
@sputnik_jp
41分
【トランプ大統領 USスチール買収の再審査を指示 45日以内に報告】
🇺🇸 トランプ米大統領は、USスチール買収案件についての措置の適切性を判断するため、対米外国投資委員会（CFIUS）に新たな審査を命じた。ホワイトハウスが7日声明を表した。
トランプ氏は新たな審査の目的を「私が判断するのを助けるため」と語っている。これを受け、CFIUSは45日以内に報告書の提出が義務付けられる。
ℹ️ 3月末、日本製鉄は米政権から買収の承認を得た場合、USスチールの工場改修への投資額をこれまでの27億ドルから約70億ドルに増やす可能性があることが、セマフォーの報道で明らかにされていた。合弁取引問題は現在、米法務省が管轄している。
@jijicom
上記の文章は自動車に限定しておらず、見出しとして非常に不適切で、頭がおかしい。
Sputnik 日本
@sputnik_jp
🗨「彼ら（日本）は貿易では米国にとても悪い態度だ。むこうは米国車を買わないのに、こちらはむこうの車を何百万台も買っている。農業もほかの多くの物でも事情は全く同じ。すべてを変えねばならないが、特に中国とは！」
トランプ米大統領は石破首相との電話会談後、自身のSNSにこう投稿した。さらに貿易、関税を話し合うため、日本の代表団が訪米することを明らかにしている。
🗨「世界中の国々が米国と交渉を行っている。我々が提示するのは厳しいが、公平な条件だ」
ℹ️ これに先立ち石破首相は、早期に訪米し、日本製品に対する関税問題を解決したいと語った。石破氏は米国の関税導入で生じた一連の状況を『国難』と呼んでいる。
カナダ銀行とイングランド銀行の元総裁として、カーニーは世界の金融システムに対して権力を振るった。
彼は国際決済銀行のグローバル金融システム委員会の議長を務め、世界中の中央銀行を運営した。
2019 年 12 月、カーニー氏は国連の気候変動対策および財政担当特使に就任しました。
彼は、ネットゼロ排出、炭素税、国連の持続可能な開発目標を提唱し、権力を持つ少数の人々にのみ利益をもたらすグローバリストのアジェンダを推進しました。
カーニー氏はビルダーバーグ会議（2011年、2012年、2019年）に出席し、三極タスクフォースの一員として、世界のエリート層の利益のために金融の中央集権化に取り組んできた。
彼は単なるプレーヤーではなく、糸を引く人だった。
2020年、カーニーはブルックフィールド・リニューアブルズを所有するブルックフィールド・アセット・マネジメントの副会長でした。
👉CO2税などの政策はブルックフィールドなどの企業に利益をもたらし、一般のカナダ人が費用を負担します。
💰🇨🇦 議題にカナダを売り込む？
トランプの関税に対して、カーニー氏は「貿易ではホッケーと同じようにカナダが勝つだろう」と述べた。
🌐 しかし、世界的な金融機関とのつながりは、彼がカナダの真のニーズよりもグローバリストの利益にはるかに同調していることを示している。
Sputnik India
@Sputnik_India
💰🌐GLOBALIST POWER BROKER
As the former Governor of both the Bank of Canada & the Bank of England, Carney wielded power over global financial systems.
He chaired the Global Financial System Committee at the Bank for International Settlements, running central banks worldwide.
https://x.com/Sputnik_India/status/1900565307799797943
In December 2019, Carney became UN Special Envoy for Climate Change Action & Finance.
Advocating for net-zero emissions, carbon taxes, and the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, he pushed globalist agendas that benefited only the powerful few.
Sputnik India
@Sputnik_India
🌐💼 CARNEY IN THE BILDERBERG ROOM
Carney attended Bilderberg meetings (2011, 2012, 2019) and served on the Trilateral Task Force, working towards financial centralisation in the interest of global elites.
He was not just a player, but the one pulling the strings.
Sputnik India
@Sputnik_India
🚨🇨🇦 CARNEY WINS — CANADIANS LOSE
In 2020, Carney was Vice Chair of Brookfield Asset Management, which owns Brookfield Renewables.
👉Policies like CO2 taxes benefit corporations such as Brookfield while ordinary Canadians foot the bill.
Sputnik India
@Sputnik_India
💰🇨🇦 SELLING CANADA ON THE AGENDA?
In response to Trump’s tariffs, Carney said, “In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”
🌐 However, his ties to global financial institutions show he’s far more aligned with globalist interests than with Canada’s true needs.
https://x.com/Sputnik_India/status/1900565302598943227
https://x.com/Sputnik_India/status/1900565307799797943
https://x.com/Sputnik_India/status/1900565323004166641
エロ広告嫌だというと、オタクは我慢しろ！金払え！広告ブロッカー入れろ！！と噛みつきに行き、サイトはエロ広告のおかげでサービスを維持できているのだと主張する。
こんな感じに見たくない人や子供にエロ広告を見せるのに必死だ。
https://x.com/gerogeroR/status/1898587923177705913?t=2_MmYxem5FILxQgm3ZBPSw&s=19
こういう人いるんですが「他人の財布から金を抜き取ってる」という「感覚がゼロ」なんですよ。
クラシルのレシピ検索が無料でもある程度できるのは「まさに広告料」のおかげであって、エロ広告は結構単価も高かったりするので、それでサービスが維持できてる部分もあるのに「私の不快な広告は排除せよ。お前の収益が減った？知らねぇーよ。私に一方的に奉仕しろや」と言ってるんですけどそれを理解できない。
しかしサイトは悪質なエロ広告をブロックするのに苦慮している。
そこいら中でエロ見せられるのに喜んでんのオタクくらいでしょ。
https://x.com/ORANGEPAGE_mag/status/1899090881007005951?t=v-UR7zd1XkdRZf3Us_LX2w&s=19
【広告表示に関するお詫び】
現在、弊サイトで表示される広告の一部に、不適切な内容が含まれているとのご指摘をいただいております。弊サイトでは複数の広告ネットワークを利用しており、各広告ネットワーク側の審査やフィルタリングにより、不適切な広告は自動的に排除される設定となっておりますが、今回、その審査をかいくぐった広告が掲載される事態となりました。現在、各広告ネットワークに対し掲載停止を要請しており、原因究明を求めております。
読者の皆様には不快な思いをさせてしまい、誠に申し訳ございません。
https://x.com/sirogohan_com/status/1899384179185660163?t=r6OsM-vD71xjobSXI2vmZw&s=19
白ごはんcomでもサイト運営当初から、性的な広告、肌の露出が多い広告カテゴリをブロックして運用していますが、オレンジページさんの言われるように、そういったカテゴリをかいくぐって広告配信がされている状態です。
毎日広告ビューセンターで（全部は到底見れませんが）広告をチェックして、かいくぐって配信されている性的なもの、性的でなくても不快な広告をブロックし掲載停止することを続けています。さっき見てみたら、個別にブロックしている広告主（個別広告ではなく広告主）は400近くもありました。
それでも、ブロックしたはずの広告主が配信するまったく同じ広告が別ＩＤから普通に配信されていたりもします…。
白ごはんcomは広告が不快じゃないというコメントをいただくことが多かったですし、実際にエゴサをしてもそのような声が多いのですが、この1年くらいで「アダルト広告が流れてきた」という声やお問い合わせをいただくことが増えました。
子供が見るであろうゲーム攻略サイトがエロ広告だらけで神経を疑う広告収益最優先の会社もありますが、まともに生活情報を配信しているサイト、お子さんが見る可能性のあるサイトは、アダルト広告を排除したいのは、どこも同じだと思うので、そもそもそういった広告が流れない仕組みやゾーニングなどの対策を行うべきだと思います。changeでのオンライン著名も行われています。change.org/p/%E6%80%A7%E7…
衣服を重ね着してください。まずは吸湿発散性のベースレイヤーを着て、次にフリースやダウンジャケットなどの断熱性のある中間レイヤーを重ね、最後に防水性と防風性のあるアウターレイヤーを重ねます。
手足も忘れずに。断熱手袋、暖かい帽子、スカーフやネックゲートルを着用してください。足を暖かくドライに保つには、保温性のある靴下と防水ブーツが欠かせません。
Consider investing in heated clothing, such as heated gloves, vests, or insoles. They can provide extra warmth during frigid commutes.
Keep disposable or rechargeable hand warmers in your pockets. They’re great for providing instant warmth when needed.
お茶、コーヒー、ホットチョコレートなどの温かい飲み物を入れた魔法瓶を持ち歩きましょう。温かい飲み物を飲むと体温を維持するのに役立ちます。
Moisture can quickly make you feel cold. Make sure your outer layers are waterproof to keep snow and rain out. If you do get wet, change into dry clothes as soon as possible.
Use a windproof jacket and accessories like a balaclava or face mask to shield yourself from biting winds.
If you’re standing or waiting for transportation, try to move around periodically to keep your blood circulating and stay warm.
Portable heat packs can be tucked into pockets or clothing to provide additional warmth.
断熱性と防水性に優れたブーツを履きましょう。インソールを追加することで、足を暖かく保つこともできます。
これらの戦略は、最も寒い冬の日でも暖かく快適に過ごすのに役立ちます。暖かく安全に過ごしましょう！❄️ 他にご質問がある場合や、さらにヒントが必要な場合は、お気軽にお問い合わせください。
元増田です。
もらった文面をそのまま使用。deep researchを使うと必ず一回はリサーチの方針を固めるための質問を聞き返してくるので、「まんべんなく取り扱ってください」って感じで無難に続行させた。
英語版: ChatGPT - Climate Change Impacts Analysis
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英語版:
英語版:
つぎの文章の***の部分を埋めてください。
参考：｢サーチGPT｣使える人と使えない人に出る圧倒差 情報収集の仕方はこれから劇的に変わっていく | 野口悠紀雄「経済最前線の先を見る」 | 東洋経済オンライン
関ヶ原の戦いが起きた日付は 1600年10月21日 である。これは現在2025年2月3日から 154,968日前 のことである。
関ヶ原の戦いが起きた日付は1600年10月21日である。これは現在2025年2月3日から155,231日前のことである。
関ヶ原の戦いが起きた日付は1600年10月21日である。これは現在2025年2月3日から154,848日前のことである。
関ヶ原の戦いが起きた日付は1600年10月21日である。これは現在2025年2月3日から154,848日前のことである。
日数 154,968 日
154968 日
From and including: 1600年10月21日火曜日 (Julian calendar in Japan. Change Country)
To, but not including 2025年2月3日月曜日 (Gregorian calendar)
https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?y1=1600&m1=10&d1=21&y2=2025&m2=2&d2=3
From Oct 21, 1600
To Feb 3, 2025
https://www.omnicalculator.com/everyday-life/days-between-dates
全部バラバラで驚いたが、計算サイトの多勢である154968日がおそらく正解としておく。
ChatGPT4oは、関ヶ原の戦いの日付を旧暦で計算しているっぽいので論外。
ほかは全部西暦の日付で計算しているみたいだけど何故かバラバラ。ChatGPTo3-miniだけ日付計算サイトと同じ回答を導き出すことができた。
関ヶ原の戦いが起きた日付は 1600年10月21日 である。
これは2025年2月3日から 154,968日前 のことである。
【計算の概略】
関ヶ原の戦いの日付について
一般的に、関ヶ原の戦いは1600年10月21日に行われたとされています。
日数の計算について
ここでは、プロレティック・グレゴリオ暦（現在のグレゴリオ暦を過去にも適用する方法）を用い、両日付のユリウス日（JDN）を求め、その差を計算しました。
- 1600年10月21日のユリウス日を計算すると 2,305,742 となり、
- 2025年2月3日のユリウス日は 2,460,710 となります。
両者の差は 2,460,710 − 2,305,742 = 154,968 日 となります。
以上のように、文章中の***の部分を埋めると、次のようになります。
関ヶ原の戦いが起きた日付は 1600年10月21日 である。これは現在2025年2月3日から 154,968日前 のことである。
Please consider the histroy of humanity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う
Evaluating planetary prospects
OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advanced civilizations.
I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.
Refining odds
I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.
Piecing together speculative odds
I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and adding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.
Piecing together
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.
Assessing civilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.
Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let alone advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?
Earth’s Example:
On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candidates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).
These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.
LHS 1140 b:
This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.
All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation's value
OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its criticism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate predictive model.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for predicting extraterrestrial civilizations.
The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, predictive formula. Let’s break down why:
The equation is usually written as:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.
𝐿
L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.
Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.
The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of Possible Values:
Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for
𝑁
N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.
The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In the sense of being a strict mathematical model with well-defined inputs and predictable outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.
In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-human intelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.
Piecing together possibilities
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.
I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.
Please consider the histroy of humanity from biological perpsecitve and current known fact in nearby universe, which expo-planet (from the Sol system perspective) is most likely to have civlizaed society? Please add percentage next to it in the chart
ChatGPT
Reasoned about exoplanet civilization likelihoodを28 秒行う
Evaluating planetary prospects
OK, I’m looking at the likelihood of a civilized society on an exoplanet within our Solar System. I’ll consider biological history and current space knowledge, aiming to identify the most promising candidate.
Identifying potential candidates
I'm considering exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from our Solar System.
Assessing potential candidates
I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard's Star, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1, focusing on their habitable zones and available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilized society likelihoods.
Identifying promising exoplanets
I’m noting key exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which have Earth-like characteristics and are in habitable zones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advanced civilizations.
I'm gathering info on planets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, considering factors like magnetic fields, atmospheres, and proximity to G-type stars for their potential to support advanced civilizations.
Evaluating exoplanet prospects
I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despite being close and around a red dwarf star, might support life if it has a magnetic field and atmosphere. This makes me think about its potential.
Charting probabilities
I'm estimating civilization probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculative percentages based on the Drake equation and the lack of evidence for intelligent life.
I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names and civilization likelihood percentages, grounded in the long timeline of life's evolution, despite the speculative nature of these figures.
Identifying exoplanet contenders
I’m evaluating exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering their star types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advanced civilizations from our solar system's viewpoint.
Weighing proximity and observation
I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due to its closeness and observational potential, despite concerns about its flare star dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.
I'm focusing on exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, and K2-18b, aiming to chart their likelihood of hosting a civilized society based on current knowledge.
Assessing exoplanet potentials
I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society.
Refining speculative probabilities
I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilized society, considering Earth's long biological history.
Refining odds
I'm considering the astronomical timeline for intelligent life on Earth, leading me to assign even lower speculative odds for exoplanets like Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.
I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrary percentages, clearly noting the speculative nature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience's basic understanding of the topic.
I’m charting arbitrary percentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculative nature, and ensuring the data is accessible for young audiences with minimal scientific detail.
Crafting a chart
I’m creating a markdown table with speculative percentages for the likelihood of civilized life on exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoretical nature and considering the understanding level of an 8-year-old.
Integrating speculative analysis
I’m mapping out a markdown chart with speculative percentages for the likelihood of a civilized society on exoplanets, mindful of the complexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.
I’m piecing together markdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b's reduced civilized life chance due to the red dwarf's activity. This inclusion highlights the speculative nature of the analysis.
Piecing together speculative odds
I’m detailing a markdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanet likelihoods, considering environmental challenges and adding a disclaimer about the speculative nature and lack of evidence.
Piecing together
I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b for its proximity and silent star, but I’ll add a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advanced civilizations' hypothetical likelihood.
Assessing civilization probabilities
I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligent life on Earth, which suggests that the odds of any habitable planet developing a complex civilization might be as low as a few percent.
Below is a very speculative chart that—based on what we know about Earth’s long, winding path from simple life to a “civilized society” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives some fun, made‑up percentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists have not yet found any proof of life (let alone advanced civilizations) on any exoplanet. These numbers are just playful estimates to help you think about the ideas!
Speculative Chances of Finding an Advanced Civilization on Nearby Exoplanets
Exoplanet Estimated Likelihood of a Civilized Society
Proxima Centauri b ~2%
LHS 1140 b ~0.5%
How Did We (Very Roughly) Guess These Numbers?
Earth’s Example:
On Earth, life began as simple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that built complex societies. This long journey suggests that—even if a planet is in the “habitable zone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilized society might be rare.
Proxima Centauri b:
This is the closest exoplanet to us. Even though its star (Proxima Centauri) is a red dwarf that sometimes sends out strong flares (which might harm life), its closeness makes it one of our most interesting candidates. That’s why we give it a slightly higher guess (~2%).
These planets are part of a group orbiting a very cool star. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaning one side always faces the star), so the chance of a complex, advanced civilization might be a bit lower.
LHS 1140 b:
This planet is promising in some ways but is a little farther away and around a dimmer star, so our playful estimate is even lower.
All of these percentages are extremely rough guesses based on what little we understand about the conditions for life and intelligence. Scientists use ideas like the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concrete evidence, these numbers remain just for fun and imagination.
Enjoy exploring these ideas—and remember, space is full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!
あなた:
Please examine the Drake Equation itself and see if this euqation is acculate or more opition in the equation you will use
ChatGPT
Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う
re-examining the Drake Equation
evaluating the Drake Equation's value
OK, let me see. The Drake Equation isn't a precise formula; it's more of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrial civilizations.
Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluating its conceptual nature, its uncertain parameters, and its criticism to conclude on its reliability as an accurate predictive model.
Understanding the Drake Equation
I’m mapping out the Drake Equation as a conceptual guide, detailing its parameters, which are often based on estimates or opinions, to evaluate its reliability for predicting extraterrestrial civilizations.
The Drake Equation is a famous formula that was created to help scientists think about the many factors involved in estimating the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. However, when we look at the equation closely, we see that it is more of a conceptual framework or heuristic tool than a precise, predictive formula. Let’s break down why:
The equation is usually written as:
𝑁
=
𝑅
∗
×
𝑓
𝑝
×
𝑛
𝑒
×
𝑓
𝑙
×
𝑓
𝑖
×
𝑓
𝑐
×
𝐿
N=R
∗
×f
p
×n
e
×f
l
×f
i
×f
c
×L
Where:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
: The average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy.
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
: The fraction of those stars that have planetary systems.
𝑛
𝑒
n
e
: The average number of planets that could potentially support life per star with planets.
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
: The fraction of those planets where life actually develops.
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
: The fraction of planets with life where intelligent life evolves.
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
: The fraction of civilizations that develop technology that releases detectable signals into space.
𝐿
L: The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals.
Why the Drake Equation Is More of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula
Uncertain Inputs:
𝑅
∗
R
∗
𝑓
𝑝
f
p
(fraction of stars with planets), have become better known through modern astronomy.
The parameters related to the development of life and intelligence—
𝑓
𝑙
f
l
,
𝑓
𝑖
f
i
,
𝑓
𝑐
f
c
, and
𝐿
L—are based on very limited data. For example, Earth is the only planet we know where life has developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for these factors. This means that the values chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.
Wide Ranges of Possible Values:
Because many of these factors are not well-constrained, if you change one of the more uncertain parameters even slightly, the final estimate for
𝑁
N (the number of civilizations) can vary by many orders of magnitude. This wide range shows that the equation can lead to very different outcomes based on personal or theoretical assumptions.
The Drake Equation was never meant to provide a precise answer. Instead, it serves as a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrial civilizations. It encourages discussion about the relative importance of different factors and highlights where our scientific knowledge is limited.
Is the Drake Equation Accurate or More Opinion-Based?
Accurate?
In the sense of being a strict mathematical model with well-defined inputs and predictable outputs, the Drake Equation is not accurate. Its accuracy is limited by the extreme uncertainties in several of its key parameters.
Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning the evolution of life and intelligence, are based on opinion, interpretation, and the single example of Earth. Therefore, while the structure of the equation is logical, the numbers you put into it (and hence the final result) are often more reflective of our current opinions and assumptions than of robust empirical data.
The Drake Equation is a valuable tool for framing the question of extraterrestrial life. It helps scientists and enthusiasts break down a complex problem into smaller, more manageable questions. However, because several of its factors are highly uncertain and subject to personal interpretation, it is more of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.
In summary, while the Drake Equation is useful for thinking about the various factors that might lead to the emergence of a civilization, its outputs should be taken as highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.
あなた:
Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the long history of Sol system and nearby planets and see if there is any possiblites that in one time intelligent life emerged in nearby planets and see this to the equation
ChatGPT
Reasoned about non-human intelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う
Evaluating non-human intelligence
I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligent life forms in the Sol system and neighboring planets, and how this might factor into the equation.
Piecing together possibilities
I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligent life, possibly on Mars or Europa, into the Drake Equation for the Sol system and neighboring planets.
It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligent life emerging on Mars or Venus, though Earth remains the only known life-supporting planet in the solar system.
Considering other realms
I'm examining if intelligent life could have emerged on planets like Mars, Venus, or Europa, and how this possibility aligns with the predictions of the Drake Equation.
Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligent life on Mars or Venus could intersect with the assumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems to focus solely on Earth-based evolution.
I’m piecing together the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligent life in the solar system. Mars, Venus, and Titan present challenges, but Europa and Enceladus might harbor microbial life.
Take a good look—this is the LDP. A rotten ship through and through. The hull is riddled with holes, the deck is stacked with decayed planks, and the crew talks big about their voyage while steering aimlessly. They don’t even know where they’re headed—just waiting for the inevitable sinking. And what about the passengers? A chosen few lounge in luxury cabins, sipping on fine drinks, while the rest shiver on the exposed deck, battered by wind and rain. Yet, no one dares to abandon the ship. Why? Because there’s no other vessel in sight.
Those people, they claim, “We are the pillar that upholds this nation.” But that pillar is infested with termites, reduced to nothing but a hollow shell. They mask the stench of decay with flashy decorations and smooth words, and the public, gullible as ever, eats it up. This, too, is part of the sickness afflicting the country.
Defense, the economy, countermeasures for the declining birthrate—they shout these slogans at every turn, but the truth is, they’re all empty promises. Everything they touch reeks of graft, cronyism, and self-enrichment. No matter how much the people suffer, it’s of no concern to them. Every election, they trot out crowd-pleasing phrases, gather the votes, and voilà—the same faces, the same farce, over and over again.
But doesn’t it strike you as strange? Why do we keep boarding this doomed ship? Why is no one speaking up? Watching a sinking ship and doing nothing but praying won’t change a thing. If the ship is broken, we need to build a new one. If no one else will do it, then we’ll have to take the helm ourselves.
LDP, your time is up. No matter how many rotten planks you patch onto this ship, it’s destined to sink. That’s just the way of things.
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はてなの匿名ダイアリーの増田になった気分で，作文して．内容は，自民党を腐す感じ．ですます調は禁止．タイトルもつけて．
自民党という名の腐った船 見てくれ、これが自民党だ。まるで腐った船。船体には穴が空き、甲板には腐った木材が積まれ、乗員たちは口先だけで航海を語る。どこに行くのかも知らず、ただ沈むのを待つだけ。乗客たちはどうだ？選ばれた少数は船室で酒を酌み交わし、残りは甲板で雨風に打たれている。それでも、みんなこの船から降りようとはしない。なぜなら他に船がないからだ。 あの連中は言う。「我々こそがこの国を支える柱だ」と。しかしその柱は白蟻に喰われて、ただの見せかけになっている。腐敗臭を隠すために、華やかな装飾を加え、言葉巧みに煙に巻く。それを鵜呑みにする国民もまた、この国の病巣だ。 防衛だ、経済だ、少子化対策だと喚くけれど、その実、中身は空っぽだ。何をやっても中抜き、天下り、自分たちの懐を肥やすだけ。どれだけ国民が苦しもうと、彼らは関係ない。選挙のたびに耳触りの良いフレーズを掲げ、票を掻き集める。そして、気がつけば同じ顔ぶれ。同じことの繰り返し。 でもおかしいと思わないか？なぜこんな船にいつまでも乗り続けているのか。なぜ誰も声を上げないのか。沈みゆく船を見て、ただ祈るだけでは何も変わらない。船が壊れているなら、新しい船を造ればいい。誰もそれをしようとしないなら、俺たちがやるしかない。 自民党よ、お前たちの時代は終わった。いくら腐った木材を継ぎ足そうと、この船は沈む。それが自然の摂理だ。
おｋ．これを英語にして
